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Author Topic: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up  (Read 2657 times)

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Biggus Piggus

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The last time the Arkansas Razorbacks fielded a good defense was 2014, Bret Bielema's second season. And that team - offense and defense - was statistically much better than its 7-6 record. The Hogs lost eminently winnable games against Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State and Missouri.

A team that averages 32 points per game while allowing 19 should not finish one game above .500. A team that scores 31 rushing touchdowns while giving up 11 should not be mediocre. A team that passes for 21 TDs vs. 6 INTs, while allowing 19 TDs / 12 INTs, should not struggle to be bowl-eligible.

In 2015, the Hogs scored 36 points per game while allowing 27. Finished 8-5 with four losses that probably shouldn't have happened (Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Mississippi State).

Third straight underachieving season came in 2016 when the Hogs finished 7-6 after surrendering big leads in the last two games against Missouri and Virginia Tech.

That was a three-season record of 22-17 that could have been much better. AD Jeff Long was just fine with a football team that consistently underachieved, and that led to Bielema's 4-8 swan song (which included three defeats that should have been winnable).

Bielema ground the program down to a nub, but Chad Morris redefined "underperformance." As bad as the past two seasons were, I almost feel bad having complained about Bielema.

*urp*

What the HOLY HELL was going on?

The most obvious explanations -- we were awful at quarterback, bad on the offensive line, and terrible in the defensive back seven.

Quarterbacks -- oh the horror -- we played eight different quarterbacks over a two-season span. Can we stop that, like, immediately?

We have a running back who has averaged over 6 yards a carry for his career, and in two seasons he's averaged about 12 carries per game. Can we use him just a bit more?

Our defense has allowed over 30 points per game four years in a row, but 2018-19 were complete disasters. What can we do about that?

Surely a better offense would help a lot. Morris's low-octane offense averaged 21 points per game for two seasons. I mean not a flicker of improvement. No football team scoring 21 ppg is going to win. Not since desegregation.

But it's very hard to imagine giving up 37 ppg without having talent issues on defense. Are we returning any starters? If so, why?

Things to watch:

Red zone defense. In the past four seasons, Arkansas has allowed 121 rushing touchdowns, most of them from the red zone.  Last season, the Hogs gave up touchdowns on 70% of opponents' visits to the red zone. This must end. No way Arkansas can succeed without decent run defense, especially in the red zone.

Looking at our pass defense, you'd think we were overplaying the run. In 2019, opponents completed 67% of their passes against us. We made everybody look like Patrick Mahomes. Abysmal, outlier-bad pass defense. It was worsened by the fact our QBs completed only 50% as a group.

Third downs. Last year, the Hogs converted 33% of the time while allowing opponents to convert 46%.

We have got to close some space on these huge discrepancies. Outscored on the ground 29 TDs to 14. Outscored in the air 25 TDs to 14. Our anemic output was every bit as much a problem as the dysfunctional defense.

These stats, they're simply idiotic. I hadn't seen anything like 'em since losing-streak Northwestern and pre-Snyder Kansas State. Those teams were absolutely bereft of talent. Arkansas wasn't and isn't.

In 2020?

Maybe we have a quarterback.

Maybe we have a solid offensive line.

Maybe we have enough receivers and backs to move the football.

Maybe we have a veteran defensive line that can mess with quarterbacks and make it hard to run the football.

Maybe we have some talent in the secondary.

Maybe we're praying for miracles at the linebacker spots.

Maybe we have good special teams players and won't look like fools anymore.

That's a lot of possible change, but the biggest barrier might be psychological. Can players really believe after going through 4-20?

I really want to like what Sam Pittman has been doing, and I expect our results to be better than bad. If they're not, though, I won't gripe. We're a serious longshot in the best-funded, most competitive conference there ever was.

Let's start by not looking absolutely sick, OK?

Shoop

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 10:26:13 pm »

We hit pre-Snyder Kansas State levels the past 3 seasons. I just want us to have a pulse. A twitch even.

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Oklahawg

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 10:49:25 pm »

We hit pre-Snyder Kansas State levels the past 3 seasons. I just want us to have a pulse. A twitch even.

I'm not there, yet.

KState scored 134 (12.2/game), giving up 343 (31.2/game) in 86, winning games vs Western Illinois and an equally awful Kansas. They lost to perennial juggernauts Army, Tulsa, and Austin Peay in 1987, scoring 135 (12.3/game) and giving up 421 (38.3/game). The lone bright spot was a tie vs the previously mentioned hapless Jayhawks (they won one game, by a point, vs Southern Illinois). A winless 1988 season featured a blowout loss to a not-great Tulsa team and squeaker losses to La Tech and Tulane. That team scored 171 (15.5/game) and gave up 448 (40.7/game). Those three teams were 2-9, 0-10-1, and 0-11.

Enter Bill Snyder. year one was much like the 86 season: a 1-10 season scoring 134 (12.2/game) and giving up 349 (34.7/game). But, in 1990, Snyder turned the corner, with the Wildcats going 5-6 (255/293 points) and 7-4 in 1991 (before the days of everyone with a winning record going to a bowl. 1982 was the previous winning season, 6-5-1,

The last two years, back to back, the KState didn't have a losing record? 1969-70. Snyder was 5-6 in 1992, and then had back-to-back 9 win seasons in 93 and 94.

That doesn't look like UA football. Yet. I don't think. I don't know what a coronavirus season does to UA's trend line, and how replacing three winnable OOC games with Florida and Georgia, and chances at wins this year.

Maybe I'm wanting to like Pittman and embrace his vision too much. Hey, its the week of the first game. Its when optimism and fandom is supposed to run rampant.

rtr

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 10:54:57 pm »

The last 8 years were a complete disaster.  As Biggus said even the 2014,2015 and 2016 teams really could have been so much better. 

I hope we are competitive but realistically I expect this first game to be over by the end of the 1st quarter. 

ArkansasI

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2020, 12:50:27 pm »

During the last two years the Hogs have been "Chavised".  John made a king's ransom coaching teams having far more Sunday talent than their opponents.  Then he took us for another king's ransom with even or less odds.  Offenses have lit up Chavis defenses like pinball wizards - and the Hogs suffered full tilt boogie from his incompetence.

A decent Defensive Coordinator would never have lost his job at LSU, and could have saved Kevin Sumlyn's job at A&M.

Unfortunately, Razorback coaches have been disguising our talent for years.  Did any of us know that Dre Greenlaw would become an elite NFL linebacker?  Who among us really knows how good any Razorback player is?

As is common with all things Razorback, the Hogs must work out their psychological deficiencies against the nation's toughest schedule.  They have a choice... compete or lay down and get their faces bashed in.

I'm looking forward to seeing if this staff raises everyones' expectations to a fighter's chance.

HogPharmer

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2020, 12:51:55 pm »

We hit pre-Snyder Kansas State levels the past 3 seasons. I just want us to have a pulse. A twitch even.

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Hogwild

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2020, 01:34:56 pm »

The last 8 years were a complete disaster. 

only 5 winning seasons since Nutt was fired in '07
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Lud42

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2020, 02:02:31 pm »

only 5 winning seasons since Nutt was fired in '07

Not too much better, but we've had six winning seasons since Nutt was fired in '07:

2009: 8-5
2010: 10-3
2011: 11-2
2014: 7-6
2015: 8-5
2016: 7-6

Winning seasons by decade:
1960s: 8 of 10
1970s: 8 of 10
1980s: 10 of 10
1990s: 3 of 10
2000s: 6 of 10
2010s: 5 of 10

Only 14 winning seasons in the last 30 years. New decade starts this year, maybe we can finally get it going. Not much chance of getting on the right side of the record this year, but maybe we can show some progress.
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BloodRedHog

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2020, 02:14:42 pm »



I forgot how bad the 1990's were...ugh

Hatleyville454

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2020, 02:59:36 pm »

Talent is a big deal, but motivation and buy-in is just as important if not more so. All that talent doesn't do you any good, if you're only getting 60-70% effort out of it. That is where I am hoping Pittman will be able to succeed. It's cliche, but get the guys to run through the brick wall for you. Some guys do this with their speeches - See Houston Nutt, and then some guys do it with their personal relationships - See Pittman. That should be the most immediate improvement we see. Guys playing up to, or close to, their potential. If we can get to that point, then we can start fine tuning the rest and really get this program back competitive every week.

Like Scott Fountain said - I want whatever team we are playing each week to know they are in for a dog fight. We may still lose, but we're gonna leave a mark and you will remember us rolling into town.

Jim Harris

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2020, 03:52:47 pm »


A decent Defensive Coordinator would never have lost his job at LSU, and could have saved Kevin Sumlyn's job at A&M.


Chavis didn't lose his job at LSU. He left for A&M because he knew Miles would eventually be fired.
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Hamdsome 1

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2020, 04:07:41 pm »

Personally, I don’t flying Frank about previous stats/records.

Turn the page and you’ll notice the beginning of a whole new chapter.

rtr

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2020, 04:28:01 pm »


I forgot how bad the 1990's were...ugh
They were really bad.  We were bad in the SWC before we left for the SEC.
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Corkscrew Johnson

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2020, 04:48:07 pm »

Not too much better, but we've had six winning seasons since Nutt was fired in '07:

2009: 8-5
2010: 10-3
2011: 11-2
2014: 7-6
2015: 8-5
2016: 7-6

Winning seasons by decade:
1960s: 8 of 10
1970s: 8 of 10
1980s: 10 of 10
1990s: 3 of 10
2000s: 6 of 10
2010s: 5 of 10

Only 14 winning seasons in the last 30 years. New decade starts this year, maybe we can finally get it going. Not much chance of getting on the right side of the record this year, but maybe we can show some progress.

A more optimistic way of saying it: we have really only sucked for the last 3 years.  We were underachievingly average the 3 years before that.

It's hard to translate statistics into historical relevance, as the whole team quit a few games in the season. And then you lose all context for stats. But we played a lot of freshmen, our offensive line grew experienced and returns en masse, our skill players are actually talented, and we have a genuine SEC caliber veteran QB.  If they don't quit, it's hard to see us not improving dramatically.  On that side of the ball. 

Bacons Rebellion

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2020, 04:53:03 pm »

...
That's a lot of possible change, but the biggest barrier might be psychological. Can players really believe after going through 4-20?
..

They have a reason to believe, simply because of the mass coaching change. We are led to believe the team revolted against Morris, and a successful revolution usually results in a lot of energy and enthusiasm -- you have to direct that energy -- you can write a Constitution or you cut off heads with a guillotine.

The enthusiams will be fragile. We need to win a game to validate that belief in themselves.
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Pulled(PP)pork

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2020, 05:01:44 pm »

there's enough bad numbers in this thread to make me give up football all together



PP

Jim Harris

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2020, 05:19:06 pm »

The last time the Arkansas Razorbacks fielded a good defense was 2014, Bret Bielema's second season. And that team - offense and defense - was statistically much better than its 7-6 record. The Hogs lost eminently winnable games against Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State and Missouri.

A team that averages 32 points per game while allowing 19 should not finish one game above .500. A team that scores 31 rushing touchdowns while giving up 11 should not be mediocre. A team that passes for 21 TDs vs. 6 INTs, while allowing 19 TDs / 12 INTs, should not struggle to be bowl-eligible.

In 2015, the Hogs scored 36 points per game while allowing 27. Finished 8-5 with four losses that probably shouldn't have happened (Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Mississippi State).

Third straight underachieving season came in 2016 when the Hogs finished 7-6 after surrendering big leads in the last two games against Missouri and Virginia Tech.

That was a three-season record of 22-17 that could have been much better. AD Jeff Long was just fine with a football team that consistently underachieved, and that led to Bielema's 4-8 swan song (which included three defeats that should have been winnable).

Bielema ground the program down to a nub, but Chad Morris redefined "underperformance." As bad as the past two seasons were, I almost feel bad having complained about Bielema.



Every year, including his first, Bielema managed to lose 2-3 games that not only were winnable but SHOULD HAVE BEEN WON and were choked at the end, often by some facet that seemed more like neglect on his part than anything. Despite his record at Wisconsin and his "smartest coach in the room" act a lot of the time, he wasn't that good. Assistants found him hard to work for. He crawled into a bottle, like he did before before being called on the carpet under Alvarez when things nearly went south for him in Madison.
The last two recruiting efforts didn't bring in an SEC-competent QB and any O-linemen of real note or talent, and definitely not enough defense. Not enough anything. The scholarships they handed out to LBs, they might as well have just stood outside Angola Prison and offered guys as they were released. It would have been just as successful in the long run. What a frickin' disaster of recruiting that was.
He could no longer mine for Arkansas the areas that had produced for Wisconsin, he had lost Pittman, he had a bunch of guys on staff in the last two years who were just a cut below, especially in recruiting, and willing to take a flyer on C-USA/Sun Belt level talent in most cases. They got little to nothing out of all those efforts in Louisiana, just guys who could fill roster spots. He had given up on Texas mostly before it started. Had one brief little push in there late off the 2014-15 success (Texas Bowl win and 8-5 the next year) for the likes of Whaley, but struck out on several others who, in hindsight on a few, weren't really all that good anyway. He squandered so much opportunity to at least, in perception, look to recruits all around like he was doing a GREAT job -- as you point out, going 7-6 when he had 4 games in his grasp in season two, 8-5 when, gosh, 10-3 or 11-2 were actually realistic, in year 3. Of course, IF is on the scoreboard and he didn't win those games, and he couldn't even manage one league win in year 1, which ultimately didn't help recruiting that next class.
He had easier schedules at Wisconsin and lost a handful of winnables there, too. He allowed all he had built up in three years here to just fall apart.
Just really pisses me off. Then they let the Gus-huggers push hard for the next clown, Gus 2.0 who was more like Gus -273.0

Hollywood_HOGan45

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2020, 05:28:22 pm »

Every year, including his first, Bielema managed to lose 2-3 games that not only were winnable but SHOULD HAVE BEEN WON and were choked at the end, often by some facet that seemed more like neglect on his part than anything. Despite his record at Wisconsin and his "smartest coach in the room" act a lot of the time, he wasn't that good. Assistants found him hard to work for. He crawled into a bottle, like he did before before being called on the carpet under Alvarez when things nearly went south for him in Madison.
The last two recruiting efforts didn't bring in an SEC-competent QB and any O-linemen of real note or talent, and definitely not enough defense. Not enough anything. The scholarships they handed out to LBs, they might as well have just stood outside Angola Prison and offered guys as they were released. It would have been just as successful in the long run. What a frickin' disaster of recruiting that was.
He could no longer mine for Arkansas the areas that had produced for Wisconsin, he had lost Pittman, he had a bunch of guys on staff in the last two years who were just a cut below, especially in recruiting, and willing to take a flyer on C-USA/Sun Belt level talent in most cases. They got little to nothing out of all those efforts in Louisiana, just guys who could fill roster spots. He had given up on Texas mostly before it started. Had one brief little push in there late off the 2014-15 success (Texas Bowl win and 8-5 the next year) for the likes of Whaley, but struck out on several others who, in hindsight on a few, weren't really all that good anyway. He squandered so much opportunity to at least, in perception, look to recruits all around like he was doing a GREAT job -- as you point out, going 7-6 when he had 4 games in his grasp in season two, 8-5 when, gosh, 10-3 or 11-2 were actually realistic, in year 3. Of course, IF is on the scoreboard and he didn't win those games, and he couldn't even manage one league win in year 1, which ultimately didn't help recruiting that next class.
He had easier schedules at Wisconsin and lost a handful of winnables there, too. He allowed all he had built up in three years here to just fall apart.
Just really pisses me off. Then they let the Gus-huggers push hard for the next clown, Gus 2.0 who was more like Gus -273.0

13,14,15, AND 16 should have been so much better.

We have been a wreck for three years running but our slide started way before we hired the worst coach in athletics history.
13 was excused but there were Several opportunities right there in front of us that our coaches squandered. Rutgers was one of the single worst meltdowns. aTm the next year was a win that we choked away that was aided by a bad call against Skipper.

That 14 loss to aTm set the tone for other close games. We were just HORRIBLE during winning time. The only two games I remember being clutch wins were Ole Miss in 15 and TCU in 16. TCU had the appearance of another Bielema meltdown though. We controlled the game the entire time and still probably should have lost.

So ready for some competent coaching. Sam doesn't even have to be good! Just competent!
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2020, 06:09:19 pm »

Better coaching makes a difference, better players certainly help. But after that, the players have to get their minds "right". If you have the first two the biggest difference between winning and losing, between executing and failing, is those 6 inches between the players ears. 
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Hogwild

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2020, 06:54:02 pm »

The only two games I remember being clutch wins were Ole Miss in 15 and TCU in 16. TCU had the appearance of another Bielema meltdown though. We controlled the game the entire time and still probably should have lost.


To me it seemed that Bielema had a bunch of could have won and a bunch of could have lost.  Like you said the Ole Miss but, in '15  also 4 OT game vs Aurburn. 2016 had LA Tech and TCU to open the season that went to the wire, Ole Miss & State were very close games. 2017 only had 4 wins and two of them were by one point (Ole Miss & Coastal)
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Bacons Rebellion

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2020, 07:28:57 pm »

Here's another statisitical nightmare.

Our problem since Petrino left is that we no longer win the close game. Close games I put more on the coach. Sure, your receiver can drop the winning pass, or your kicker can miss the winning field goal, but close games come down to coaching battles and putting your players in a position to win. Over the long haul, close games tell on a coach. You should win your share.

Our worst three coaches since before Bowden Wyatt, percentage-wise, in close games have been our last three coaches, with the exception of Bielema inching out Jack Crowe.

Morris: 1-7 .125 (the win was against Portland St. for crying out loud)
Bielema: 8-14  .363 (0-3, 0-4, 3-3, 3-1, 2-3)
Smith: 0-3 .000
Petrino: 12-8 .600  (4-4, 1-2, 4-2,  3-0)
Nutt: 21-19 .525    (3-2, 2-1, 2-1, 4-1, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4, 3-2, 1-2)
Ford: 12-7-1 .632   ( 2-1-1, 1-2, 5-1, 2-1, 2-2)
Crowe: 3-7 .300    (0-4, 3-2, 0-1)
Hatfield: 18-10-1 0.643    (1-4-1, 4-1, 2-0, 6-1, 2-2, 3-2)
Holtz: 16-12-2 .571    (2-1, 1-1-1, 2-1, 3-3, 3-3, 2-1-1, 2-2)
Broyles 36-30-5 .545   (2-2, 6-1, 4-2, 2-2, 1-5, 3-0, 2-1, 2-2, 0-3-1, 3-0, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3-1, 2-2, 4-1-1, 1-1-1, 1-2, 2-2-1)
Mitchell: 4-6-1 .400   (2-2-1, 0-1,2-3)
Wyatt: 5-7 .417   (1-4, 4-3)





Shoop

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2020, 07:56:48 pm »

Another statistical nightmare.

Since 2012, we only have a winning head to head record vs 1 SEC team, and thats Tennessee...Every West team minus Ole Miss (4-4) has a winning record vs us. Every SEC East team except for Tennessee has a winning record over
 us. They said 2012 would be the end of the world. I didn't think they damn near meant razorback football for cryin out loud.

I just don't want us to own the most embarrassing nightmare this year: Longest SEC losing streak. Im already hurting that we will reach 20 straight after Saturday.
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Shoop

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2020, 08:01:49 pm »

Not too much better, but we've had six winning seasons since Nutt was fired in '07:

2009: 8-5
2010: 10-3
2011: 11-2
2014: 7-6
2015: 8-5
2016: 7-6

Winning seasons by decade:
1960s: 8 of 10
1970s: 8 of 10
1980s: 10 of 10
1990s: 3 of 10
2000s: 6 of 10
2010s: 5 of 10

Only 14 winning seasons in the last 30 years. New decade starts this year, maybe we can finally get it going. Not much chance of getting on the right side of the record this year, but maybe we can show some progress.
Hell of a contrast between the SEC and the SWC
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Squints Pallaboarus

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2020, 08:12:20 pm »

What was our defenses 3rd down conversion percentage?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2020, 08:23:16 pm »

What was our defenses 3rd down conversion percentage?

Over which period time? Last year?

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div
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Oliver

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #25 on: September 22, 2020, 08:25:48 pm »

Unfortunately to get our minds right again, we just need wins.   Against anybody.  We are coming off a season where we lost to North Texas.  Unfortunately a 10 game all SEC schedule isn’t going to provide us with many psychological changing situations

Buff

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2020, 09:05:54 am »

Another statistical nightmare.

Since 2012, we only have a winning head to head record vs 1 SEC team, and thats Tennessee...Every West team minus Ole Miss (4-4) has a winning record vs us. Every SEC East team except for Tennessee has a winning record over
 us.

But we got the whole "Integrity Goes a LONG Way" vibe out of the deal.  I just find some comfort in knowing that the man who fired Bobby Petrino is already tearing down another university too. 

Redhogs

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2020, 09:39:11 am »

Better coaching makes a difference, better players certainly help. But after that, the players have to get their minds "right". If you have the first two the biggest difference between winning and losing, between executing and failing, is those 6 inches between the players ears.
And who is responsable for player mindset....yea, the coaches. Without a doubt, the most important facet of coaching. Petrino masterd this with fear...and it worked for him. BB just did not give a crap his last 2 years....fat, dumb, and happy really does describe him during that period. Morris...there are no words.

Buff

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2020, 10:11:17 am »

Petrino masterd this with fear...and it worked for him.

I watched highlights from the 2010 Georgia game and something caught my attention:  After Georgia scored to tie the game up late, Petrino didn't even look mad.  He actually looked cool as could be.  As a player or official, you didn't want to see him screaming, but as an opposing coach you really didn't want to see him standing there calmly in a situation like that.

Brett just looked confused all the time.  Morris looked like he wanted a banjo and a river bank.

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2020, 10:26:39 am »


I forgot how bad the 1990's were...ugh

It was rough but my love for the Hogs was at an all time high!!! I loved coming to games. It was a cult. We had no less love for the Hogs.

Fans were unhappy but seats were no less hard to come by.

God I love the 90s
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2020, 11:09:51 am »

Arkansas PPG allowed by season starting with 2006 - the previous last "good" defense at Arkansas before the 2014 anomaly where we caught many breaks with opposing qb situations in terms of injury or lack of talent.  This was also when the SEC became the deepest and most dominant conference ever and the spread offense era started taking over even the elite programs. 

2006 - 19.2 - Two first round picks on the D.
2007 - 27.5
2008 - 31.8 - had to start over playing underclassmen before they needed to play
2009 - 26.3
2010 - 25.1
2011 - 23.5 - the 2008 and 9 underclassmen became veterans
2012 - 31 - had to replace all that was lost from the 2011 team
2013 - 31.6
2014 - 20.2
2015 - 27.3
2016 - 32.8
2017 - 38.8
2018 - 36.1
2019 - 39

Perhaps one of the scariest parts of these numbers is our opponents only had 70 plays per game the last 3 seasons and 65 in 2016.  Hogs were 10th in college football in 2016 in opponents plays per game and still gave up on avg nearly 33ppg.  Now we have Briles wanting to go fast.  Better score and not turn the ball over. 

We struggle recruiting LBs.  Biggest problem especially in this era where LB's have to play in space so much.  Greenlaw is an example of an exception.  However he couldn't stay healthy for us plus teams could attack the others when he was playing.  Reading between the lines of the preseason coverage, LB is a big concern. 

We have to improve by at least a TD per game both offensively and defensively to even be competitive this season. 

Hogs PPG starting with 2006
2006 - 26.2
2007 - 37.6
2008 - 21.4 - upperclassmen recruited during Nutt's "free pass" seasons
2009 - 35
2010 - 35.8
2011 - 35.6
2012 - 21.2
2013 - 19.7
2014 - 28.5
2015 - 33.7
2016 - 28.5
2017 - 26.9
2018 - 18.6
2019 - 21.5




lumphog

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2020, 11:15:10 am »

1998
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rtr

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2020, 02:28:00 pm »

No doubt, Jeff Long hired the wrong football coach twice in one year:  2012
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wachhog

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #33 on: September 23, 2020, 06:15:23 pm »

The last time the Arkansas Razorbacks fielded a good defense was 2014, Bret Bielema's second season. And that team - offense and defense - was statistically much better than its 7-6 record. The Hogs lost eminently winnable games against Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State and Missouri.

A team that averages 32 points per game while allowing 19 should not finish one game above .500. A team that scores 31 rushing touchdowns while giving up 11 should not be mediocre. A team that passes for 21 TDs vs. 6 INTs, while allowing 19 TDs / 12 INTs, should not struggle to be bowl-eligible.

In 2015, the Hogs scored 36 points per game while allowing 27. Finished 8-5 with four losses that probably shouldn't have happened (Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Mississippi State).

Third straight underachieving season came in 2016 when the Hogs finished 7-6 after surrendering big leads in the last two games against Missouri and Virginia Tech.

That was a three-season record of 22-17 that could have been much better. AD Jeff Long was just fine with a football team that consistently underachieved, and that led to Bielema's 4-8 swan song (which included three defeats that should have been winnable).

Bielema ground the program down to a nub, but Chad Morris redefined "underperformance." As bad as the past two seasons were, I almost feel bad having complained about Bielema.

*urp*

What the HOLY HELL was going on?

The most obvious explanations -- we were awful at quarterback, bad on the offensive line, and terrible in the defensive back seven.

Quarterbacks -- oh the horror -- we played eight different quarterbacks over a two-season span. Can we stop that, like, immediately?

We have a running back who has averaged over 6 yards a carry for his career, and in two seasons he's averaged about 12 carries per game. Can we use him just a bit more?

Our defense has allowed over 30 points per game four years in a row, but 2018-19 were complete disasters. What can we do about that?

Surely a better offense would help a lot. Morris's low-octane offense averaged 21 points per game for two seasons. I mean not a flicker of improvement. No football team scoring 21 ppg is going to win. Not since desegregation.

But it's very hard to imagine giving up 37 ppg without having talent issues on defense. Are we returning any starters? If so, why?

Things to watch:

Red zone defense. In the past four seasons, Arkansas has allowed 121 rushing touchdowns, most of them from the red zone.  Last season, the Hogs gave up touchdowns on 70% of opponents' visits to the red zone. This must end. No way Arkansas can succeed without decent run defense, especially in the red zone.

Looking at our pass defense, you'd think we were overplaying the run. In 2019, opponents completed 67% of their passes against us. We made everybody look like Patrick Mahomes. Abysmal, outlier-bad pass defense. It was worsened by the fact our QBs completed only 50% as a group.

Third downs. Last year, the Hogs converted 33% of the time while allowing opponents to convert 46%.

We have got to close some space on these huge discrepancies. Outscored on the ground 29 TDs to 14. Outscored in the air 25 TDs to 14. Our anemic output was every bit as much a problem as the dysfunctional defense.

These stats, they're simply idiotic. I hadn't seen anything like 'em since losing-streak Northwestern and pre-Snyder Kansas State. Those teams were absolutely bereft of talent. Arkansas wasn't and isn't.

In 2020?

Maybe we have a quarterback.

Maybe we have a solid offensive line.

Maybe we have enough receivers and backs to move the football.

Maybe we have a veteran defensive line that can mess with quarterbacks and make it hard to run the football.

Maybe we have some talent in the secondary.

Maybe we're praying for miracles at the linebacker spots.

Maybe we have good special teams players and won't look like fools anymore.

That's a lot of possible change, but the biggest barrier might be psychological. Can players really believe after going through 4-20?

I really want to like what Sam Pittman has been doing, and I expect our results to be better than bad. If they're not, though, I won't gripe. We're a serious longshot in the best-funded, most competitive conference there ever was.

Let's start by not looking absolutely sick, OK?
The people who looked sick and obviously were fired Bobby Petrino. Why would we expect anything but what followed with idiots like that in control?  The question is: Are the fools still on charge? I guess we will see.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #34 on: September 23, 2020, 06:23:58 pm »

And who is responsable for player mindset....yea, the coaches. Without a doubt, the most important facet of coaching. Petrino masterd this with fear...and it worked for him. BB just did not give a crap his last 2 years....fat, dumb, and happy really does describe him during that period. Morris...there are no words.

That really was my point. Players believe when they are lead and coached and have faith in their coaching staff. You heard it directly from Rakeem Boyd in his most recent interview.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #35 on: September 23, 2020, 07:09:41 pm »

The forecast indicates statistical nightmares of the past favors the hogs.

MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #36 on: September 23, 2020, 07:16:43 pm »

The forecast indicates statistical nightmares of the past favors the hogs.

Low hanging fruit opinion?
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #37 on: September 23, 2020, 07:27:31 pm »

Low hanging fruit opinion?

It’s more of a tribute to The OTR opinion.

MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #38 on: September 23, 2020, 07:30:24 pm »

It’s more of a tribute to The OTR opinion.

Which is?
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HogBreath

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #39 on: September 23, 2020, 07:38:01 pm »

Maybe being dishonest with your boss ain't such a bad thing after all.

But hey....we don't know for certain we'd have kept on winning at those levels!!
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nuttless hog

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #40 on: September 23, 2020, 07:45:45 pm »

The last time the Arkansas Razorbacks fielded a good defense was 2014, Bret Bielema's second season. And that team - offense and defense - was statistically much better than its 7-6 record. The Hogs lost eminently winnable games against Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State and Missouri.

A team that averages 32 points per game while allowing 19 should not finish one game above .500. A team that scores 31 rushing touchdowns while giving up 11 should not be mediocre. A team that passes for 21 TDs vs. 6 INTs, while allowing 19 TDs / 12 INTs, should not struggle to be bowl-eligible.

In 2015, the Hogs scored 36 points per game while allowing 27. Finished 8-5 with four losses that probably shouldn't have happened (Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Mississippi State).

Third straight underachieving season came in 2016 when the Hogs finished 7-6 after surrendering big leads in the last two games against Missouri and Virginia Tech.

That was a three-season record of 22-17 that could have been much better. AD Jeff Long was just fine with a football team that consistently underachieved, and that led to Bielema's 4-8 swan song (which included three defeats that should have been winnable).

Bielema ground the program down to a nub, but Chad Morris redefined "underperformance." As bad as the past two seasons were, I almost feel bad having complained about Bielema.

*urp*

What the HOLY HELL was going on?

The most obvious explanations -- we were awful at quarterback, bad on the offensive line, and terrible in the defensive back seven.

Quarterbacks -- oh the horror -- we played eight different quarterbacks over a two-season span. Can we stop that, like, immediately?

We have a running back who has averaged over 6 yards a carry for his career, and in two seasons he's averaged about 12 carries per game. Can we use him just a bit more?

Our defense has allowed over 30 points per game four years in a row, but 2018-19 were complete disasters. What can we do about that?

Surely a better offense would help a lot. Morris's low-octane offense averaged 21 points per game for two seasons. I mean not a flicker of improvement. No football team scoring 21 ppg is going to win. Not since desegregation.

But it's very hard to imagine giving up 37 ppg without having talent issues on defense. Are we returning any starters? If so, why?

Things to watch:

Red zone defense. In the past four seasons, Arkansas has allowed 121 rushing touchdowns, most of them from the red zone.  Last season, the Hogs gave up touchdowns on 70% of opponents' visits to the red zone. This must end. No way Arkansas can succeed without decent run defense, especially in the red zone.

Looking at our pass defense, you'd think we were overplaying the run. In 2019, opponents completed 67% of their passes against us. We made everybody look like Patrick Mahomes. Abysmal, outlier-bad pass defense. It was worsened by the fact our QBs completed only 50% as a group.

Third downs. Last year, the Hogs converted 33% of the time while allowing opponents to convert 46%.

We have got to close some space on these huge discrepancies. Outscored on the ground 29 TDs to 14. Outscored in the air 25 TDs to 14. Our anemic output was every bit as much a problem as the dysfunctional defense.

These stats, they're simply idiotic. I hadn't seen anything like 'em since losing-streak Northwestern and pre-Snyder Kansas State. Those teams were absolutely bereft of talent. Arkansas wasn't and isn't.

In 2020?

Maybe we have a quarterback.

Maybe we have a solid offensive line.

Maybe we have enough receivers and backs to move the football.

Maybe we have a veteran defensive line that can mess with quarterbacks and make it hard to run the football.

Maybe we have some talent in the secondary.

Maybe we're praying for miracles at the linebacker spots.

Maybe we have good special teams players and won't look like fools anymore.

That's a lot of possible change, but the biggest barrier might be psychological. Can players really believe after going through 4-20?

I really want to like what Sam Pittman has been doing, and I expect our results to be better than bad. If they're not, though, I won't gripe. We're a serious longshot in the best-funded, most competitive conference there ever was.

Let's start by not looking absolutely sick, OK?
it really does amaze me that fat boy gets a pass with many on this board just because Morris could not turn around a disaster in two years that he created in five. Morris did not have the expertise as a coach but he did leave the program in better shape just in talent that he brought in for Pittman to start a new foundation, quit blaming the wrong guy for where we are and start watching the Morris recruiters bring us out of this disaster

majestic

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #41 on: September 23, 2020, 07:50:45 pm »

it really does amaze me that fat boy gets a pass with many on this board just because Morris could not turn around a disaster in two years that he created in five. Morris did not have the expertise as a coach but he did leave the program in better shape just in talent that he brought in for Pittman to start a new foundation, quit blaming the wrong guy for where we are and start watching the Morris recruiters bring us out of this disaster
Haha! That's hilarious.
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nuttless hog

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #43 on: September 23, 2020, 07:55:15 pm »

it really does amaze me that fat boy gets a pass with many on this board just because Morris could not turn around a disaster in two years that he created in five. Morris did not have the expertise as a coach but he did leave the program in better shape just in talent that he brought in for Pittman to start a new foundation, quit blaming the wrong guy for where we are and start watching the Morris recruiters bring us out of this disaster

Not sure why you think that Bielema is getting a pass? Everyone knows he mailed it in the last two years. Lots of games that should have been won, dating back to the time before Pittman left.

Morris was a good recruiter, but a very bad executor of the HC'ing position in terms of hiring a proper and effective coaching staff and overseeing their teaching of the troops. OC was overwhelmed and the DC (Chavis), unbelievably, seemed overwhelmed as well.

Bielema bears blame just the same as Chad does.
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jj202020

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #44 on: September 23, 2020, 07:55:45 pm »

Here I was thinking that there was no place to go but up—-and somebody mentions K-State.  Thanks a lot, bro
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nuttless hog

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #45 on: September 23, 2020, 08:23:19 pm »

Not sure why you think that Bielema is getting a pass? Everyone knows he mailed it in the last two years. Lots of games that should have been won, dating back to the time before Pittman left.

Morris was a good recruiter, but a very bad executor of the HC'ing position in terms of hiring a proper and effective coaching staff and overseeing their teaching of the troops. OC was overwhelmed and the DC (Chavis), unbelievably, seemed overwhelmed as well.

Bielema bears blame just the same as Chad does.
chad bears the blame for taking on a job he was not qualified to handle, he does get credit for changing our recurring status in Texas but he does not get the blame for tearing down a program that Bielema had already completed
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PorkSoda

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #46 on: September 23, 2020, 08:27:39 pm »

chad bears the blame for taking on a job he was not qualified to handle, he does get credit for changing our recurring status in Texas but he does not get the blame for tearing down a program that Bielema had already completed
lol, Morris took the program to historic depths.  Even a drunk CBB didn't sink the program as far as morris did.

Morris deserves all the blame plus extra credit.

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nuttless hog

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #47 on: September 23, 2020, 08:31:00 pm »

lol, Morris took the program to historic depths.  Even a drunk CBB didn't sink the program as far as morris did.

Morris deserves all the blame plus extra credit.


Good lord guy we where Already there, get over the Bielema love, he left us with players that we could never have gotten under the Bielema era
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PorkSoda

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #48 on: September 23, 2020, 08:38:07 pm »

Good lord guy we where Already there, get over the Bielema love, he left us with players that we could never have gotten under the Bielema era

I'm not defending CBB, and I'm not defending Morris either.

you want to defend lame duck coaches, that's your problem.
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majestic

Re: Arkansas football has been a statistical nightmare - please wake me up
« Reply #49 on: September 23, 2020, 09:02:31 pm »

Good lord guy we where Already there, get over the Bielema love, he left us with players that we could never have gotten under the Bielema era

[/quote2-10,
Good lord guy we where Already there, get over the Bielema love, he left us with players that we could never have gotten under the Bielema era

2-10, 2-8.
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