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Author Topic: Are you getting out?  (Read 555 times)

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Stephen Hawgking

Are you getting out?
« on: July 31, 2020, 09:15:34 pm »

I got 70% out of the market last September because I believed that the market was BS and due to crash.  In hindsight, that was probably stupid, but I got lucky and got all the way back in almost at the absolute bottom earlier this year.  Iím in my mid 30s.  Only touched my retirement once prior to last September. 

Iím not super inclined to make that move again, but Iím starting to feel that the market is BS again.  My retirement is at an all time high, and this has been the best year Iíve ever had already.
  I just canít believe that this stock market is real.  Are any of you getting out?  I know we have some smart folks on this board, and Iím interested to know your thoughts.

P.s.  I am not super sophisticated or interested in money, so I am nervous about asking because some of you guys seem to know a whole lot
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ErieHog

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2020, 09:23:52 pm »

The impulse to do something is the most damaging one in all of financial planning and in life.

Invest and treat it like it doesn't exist.    Compounding math over time does amazing things, when let to run its course.
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Stephen Hawgking

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2020, 09:36:51 pm »

The impulse to do something is the most damaging one in all of financial planning and in life.

Invest and treat it like it doesn't exist.    Compounding math over time does amazing things, when let to run its course.

Thatís mostly how Iím feeling.  Half the time, I say to myself that Iíll just be happy to live long enough for retirement.

At the same time, can this market really be real?  Again, I am not super sophisticated, but I donít understand how the market can be this high

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onebadrubi

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2020, 09:41:31 pm »

At your age the money isnít going to be touched for 30 years.  Buy things and leave it alone.  Think of it as the price today is going to be lower than when you want the cash, in 30-35 years.  So in and out doesnít really do you any good
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Stephen Hawgking

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2020, 10:27:03 pm »

At your age the money isnít going to be touched for 30 years.  Buy things and leave it alone.  Think of it as the price today is going to be lower than when you want the cash, in 30-35 years.  So in and out doesnít really do you any good

Thatís been my major philosophy save for that one move I made.  This is embarrassing, but Iíd been watching some YouTube videos that freaked me out.  I was expecting a ďblack swanĒ event that the Fed wouldnít be able to deal with, though I honestly didnít know what it would be. 

I was mostly wrong, but just right enough to make it pay off.

I donít think Iím going to make any changes, but Iím curious if anyone else feels like this market is bullcrap and due for a crash?  Iíve listened to interviews of PhD trained economists fearing something similar to the Great Depression, yet the market is near an all time high. 

Can you fight the Fed this time?
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2020, 01:12:22 am »

I got 70% out of the market last September because I believed that the market was BS and due to crash.  In hindsight, that was probably stupid, but I got lucky and got all the way back in almost at the absolute bottom earlier this year.  Iím in my mid 30s.  Only touched my retirement once prior to last September. 

Iím not super inclined to make that move again, but Iím starting to feel that the market is BS again.  My retirement is at an all time high, and this has been the best year Iíve ever had already.
  I just canít believe that this stock market is real.  Are any of you getting out?  I know we have some smart folks on this board, and Iím interested to know your thoughts.

P.s.  I am not super sophisticated or interested in money, so I am nervous about asking because some of you guys seem to know a whole lot
Well as youíve already admitted you fell into one of the most commonly investment errors: trying to time the market. I was in the investment business for over thirty years and quickly learned that NO ONE, even Warren Buffett, is wise enough to know when thereís a market top or bottom. His vision and attitude is that you buy excellent companies who have excellent management, strong finances, GREAT product(s), and has the ability to accurately predict and address future economic and industry trends. You select those companies and stay with them as long as they fulfill these characteristics. Donít worry about the short term ups and downs of the markets; if you do youíll be constantly hopping around like a bug in a hot skillet.

One major reason the markets are generally doing so well is the fact the FED is printing money and with interest as close to zero as weíll very likely see in lifetimes, you really have little other choice. Even with the pandemic ďthis too shall passĒ and weíll eventually get the economy turned around. Itís THAT event that you should be concentrating on, at least for the next 6-12 months. So suck it up and think long term (at least 3 years out) and go for it. One other thing-if youíre leery about adding to much to the market(s) pick out several stocks youíre really like to own, initiate a partial position and if the stock such pull back, and assuming the fundamentals still look go, buy additional shares by ďaveraging downĒ.  GOOD LUCK!!!
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2020, 01:19:59 am »

Thatís been my major philosophy save for that one move I made.  This is embarrassing, but Iíd been watching some YouTube videos that freaked me out.  I was expecting a ďblack swanĒ event that the Fed wouldnít be able to deal with, though I honestly didnít know what it would be. 

I was mostly wrong, but just right enough to make it pay off.

I donít think Iím going to make any changes, but Iím curious if anyone else feels like this market is bullcrap and due for a crash?  Iíve listened to interviews of PhD trained economists fearing something similar to the Great Depression, yet the market is near an all time high. 

Can you fight the Fed this time?
One of the first, most crucial investment lessons: you NEVER, EVER fight the FED. As long as interest rate is as low as theyíll ever likely be (who the h#ll would be foolish enough to invest money in a CD practically nothing; how about putting money in a ten year Treasury at approximately 1/2%. Heck, youíre actually losing money when you take into account taxes and inflation. When you look at it that way there are NO RISKLESS investments and anyone who thinks otherwise is only fooling themselves.
 
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2020, 01:22:31 am »

Thatís mostly how Iím feeling.  Half the time, I say to myself that Iíll just be happy to live long enough for retirement.

At the same time, can this market really be real?  Again, I am not super sophisticated, but I donít understand how the market can be this high
Simple truth: the market can go as high as it wants. As long as sufficient monies are chasing investment opportunities to maximize returns thatís the way it will usually act.
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ricepig

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2020, 01:56:08 am »

I have a certain small % that Iíll play with in the market, otherwise, leave it alone. If you donít believe me, pull up a chart of the Dow or S&P, theyíll show them going up 85% of the time. As you get older, closer to retirement,  then you can take a different attitude, and decide what your needs and options are then.
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onebadrubi

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2020, 02:14:26 am »

Thatís been my major philosophy save for that one move I made.  This is embarrassing, but Iíd been watching some YouTube videos that freaked me out.  I was expecting a ďblack swanĒ event that the Fed wouldnít be able to deal with, though I honestly didnít know what it would be. 

I was mostly wrong, but just right enough to make it pay off.

I donít think Iím going to make any changes, but Iím curious if anyone else feels like this market is bullcrap and due for a crash?  Iíve listened to interviews of PhD trained economists fearing something similar to the Great Depression, yet the market is near an all time high. 

Can you fight the Fed this time?

Oh I definitely think this market is doomed.  But cash does no good either if the market tanks like a Great Depression really.  Iíve just been trying to buy very solid companies like apple.  But itís all a crap shoot. 
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HogPharmer

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2020, 01:01:39 pm »

If you pulled your money last year and then dumped it back in when it hit the bottom a few months back, I'd say count your blessings on that one! I have always put in the annual max allowable to my Simple IRA through work (with a 3% match by my employer). But earlier this year (actually before COVID), I cut back to investing about half that. The rest, I'm saving for more "immediate" expenses (saving for house downpayment, paying off bills, etc.). I've also used some of that extra cash to open a brokerage account since the first of April. That seems to be doing better than letting thousands and thousands of dollars sit in a savings account only to accrue $3 worth of interest every 3 months.
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Stephen Hawgking

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2020, 07:40:17 pm »

I appreciate all the responses.  Iím gonna just keep things the way I have them and not tempt fate.  I still feel like the market is going to have to pay a price somehow, but again, I know that economics and finance isnít my wheelhouse.   
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Stephen Hawgking

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2020, 07:47:48 pm »

If you pulled your money last year and then dumped it back in when it hit the bottom a few months back, I'd say count your blessings on that one! I have always put in the annual max allowable to my Simple IRA through work (with a 3% match by my employer). But earlier this year (actually before COVID), I cut back to investing about half that. The rest, I'm saving for more "immediate" expenses (saving for house downpayment, paying off bills, etc.). I've also used some of that extra cash to open a brokerage account since the first of April. That seems to be doing better than letting thousands and thousands of dollars sit in a savings account only to accrue $3 worth of interest every 3 months.

I started putting back in when the s and p hit around 2500, and put more in each time it dropped a lot. 
The thing is, from the time I took my money out in September, I watched the market climb higher and higher, and I was starting to get worried that Iíd really made a terrible mistake.  And I guess it was a terrible mistake, but then covid came along and bailed me out.  I think you are right that I should just count that as a blessing and not try it again
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ricepig

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2020, 05:38:25 am »

I started putting back in when the s and p hit around 2500, and put more in each time it dropped a lot. 
The thing is, from the time I took my money out in September, I watched the market climb higher and higher, and I was starting to get worried that Iíd really made a terrible mistake.  And I guess it was a terrible mistake, but then covid came along and bailed me out.  I think you are right that I should just count that as a blessing and not try it again

Unless you are extremely lucky, or have missed your calling in market timing, like why didnít you wait until Feb to exit? You need to leave it alone, and weather the bad times, with the good times. The market has always recovered, always. It may take it longer after a serious problem, Great Depression, financial crisis, COVID-19, etc., but unless itís the end of time, you can expect your holdings to appreciate over time. We all choose dogs that end up bankrupt, or going down, but the overall market will recover should it collapse to 1800-2200 on the S&P, time is your friend.
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Stephen Hawgking

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2020, 09:05:26 am »

Unless you are extremely lucky, or have missed your calling in market timing, like why didnít you wait until Feb to exit? You need to leave it alone, and weather the bad times, with the good times. The market has always recovered, always. It may take it longer after a serious problem, Great Depression, financial crisis, COVID-19, etc., but unless itís the end of time, you can expect your holdings to appreciate over time. We all choose dogs that end up bankrupt, or going down, but the overall market will recover should it collapse to 1800-2200 on the S&P, time is your friend.

Yea, I had those thoughts as well.  Thatís the only time I ever tried market timing. I definitely donít want to be like a gambler who hit it big and then got addicted and lost it all.

Still, I have this feeling that there has to be a big drop coming.  I just donít see how there canít be some kind of financial crisis to come out of all this.

But like you guys have said, there have been other crises, and itís always bounced back even higher afterward.   
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ricepig

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2020, 09:14:54 am »

Yea, I had those thoughts as well.  Thatís the only time I ever tried market timing. I definitely donít want to be like a gambler who hit it big and then got addicted and lost it all.

Still, I have this feeling that there has to be a big drop coming.  I just donít see how there canít be some kind of financial crisis to come out of all this.

But like you guys have said, there have been other crises, and itís always bounced back even higher afterward.   

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf
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onebadrubi

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2020, 10:48:37 am »

Yea, I had those thoughts as well.  Thatís the only time I ever tried market timing. I definitely donít want to be like a gambler who hit it big and then got addicted and lost it all.

Still, I have this feeling that there has to be a big drop coming.  I just donít see how there canít be some kind of financial crisis to come out of all this.

But like you guys have said, there have been other crises, and itís always bounced back even higher afterward.

Timing sucks.  Google hawgbawb timing the market.  He did it in politics forum (or says he did Bc I think heís FOS) a few times and lost a hefty percentage.  He pulled out when trump won and said he sat on the sidelines.  Just look at this history over years.  It averages like 10% return per year.  So if you just pick a good plan, set it, and add to it, you will be fine.  If you want to play with some set up a brokerage account.  Trades are free with many now like fidelity.  Set a stop loss when you purchase so you donít get killed.  Have fun with it
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2020, 01:04:36 pm »

Yea, I had those thoughts as well.  Thatís the only time I ever tried market timing. I definitely donít want to be like a gambler who hit it big and then got addicted and lost it all.

Still, I have this feeling that there has to be a big drop coming.  I just donít see how there canít be some kind of financial crisis to come out of all this.

But like you guys have said, there have been other crises, and itís always bounced back even higher afterward.
The simple and truth of the matter is there will ALWAYS be some real or perceived reason NOT to invest. Problem is that so many investors look for that ďperfect timeĒ when they feel that all their concerns/fears have been discounted. The issue I have with that approach is like life in general, things are ALWAYS going to be uncertain and changing Ďcause that the way life and the universe operate. So accept that fact and invest for the long term. Trying to chase and respond to every little issue-economic, political, social, etc.-is a constant ďjumping from one place to anotherĒ without any sensible game plan will likely get you nowhere over time.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 01:55:37 pm by Vantage 8 dude »
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ricepig

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2020, 01:30:42 pm »

I wish I had started investing at the age my son did, while in college. I bought land instead of investing, and while itís gone up over 400% since I purchased, I canít really sell it for the capital gains. I can die and leave it to my children, lol. I was lucky that the land I inherited after my mother died, came with a 2019 basis, but I still wouldnít sell it. My son said when the market was down 35% in March, a good buying opportunity for him, and too bad for me, but itís already come back. I have 6-7% I play with, trying to make a yearís spending needs, most every year I can get that gain out of it, but probably would be worth more had I left it alone.
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Stephen Hawgking

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2020, 09:58:05 pm »

Surprised there are no contrarians.  There are plenty of educated people out there who have taken their money out, expecting a collapse.  Iím planning on leaving it alone, but I really think the crap does have to hit the fan.
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ricepig

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2020, 04:54:39 am »

Surprised there are no contrarians.  There are plenty of educated people out there who have taken their money out, expecting a collapse.  Iím planning on leaving it alone, but I really think the crap does have to hit the fan.

For every buyer, there has to be a seller, itís what makes a market. If you really think itís about to hit the fan, get out if you canít weather the storm, or it keeps you up at night. Or, you can short the market thru puts, and be hedged. Now, there usually isnít a 1:1 correlation between shorting the Dow or S&P with your portfolio, but it might make it easier for you to sleep. There were market pundits that said we were going to 1800 last March, and this was when we were around 2300. Iíve seen some say weíre going to 4000 by the end of the year, everyone has an opinion, some are right, some are wrong. I just know in the long history of our market, itís gone up over time.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2020, 05:26:08 am »

For every buyer, there has to be a seller, itís what makes a market. If you really think itís about to hit the fan, get out if you canít weather the storm, or it keeps you up at night. Or, you can short the market thru puts, and be hedged. Now, there usually isnít a 1:1 correlation between shorting the Dow or S&P with your portfolio, but it might make it easier for you to sleep. There were market pundits that said we were going to 1800 last March, and this was when we were around 2300. Iíve seen some say weíre going to 4000 by the end of the year, everyone has an opinion, some are right, some are wrong. I just know in the long history of our market, itís gone up over time.
Ricepig is totally correct. If it keeps you up at night then whatever you have in the market is too much. As optimistic as I am, at least for the present, I always counseled my clients to not risk more than they can afford to lose. Yes, over the long run the markets tend to advance most of the time, however, there are NO investments worth losing sleep over.
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rzrbackramsfan

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2020, 09:59:07 pm »

My number one fear right now is hyper inflation.  The only thing holding back the the price of the dollar halving right now (100% inflation) is the minimum wage going from 7.50 to 15.  Iím absolutely terrified of holding cash right now, but also understand the market could be as volatile as ever. 

In hyper inflation id like to own high quality companies that will continue to make money in the ever changing economy. S&P 500 is a great bet, but if you can guess the surviving companies, I think theyíre a good bet. 
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2020, 01:39:00 pm »

My number one fear right now is hyper inflation.  The only thing holding back the the price of the dollar halving right now (100% inflation) is the minimum wage going from 7.50 to 15.  Iím absolutely terrified of holding cash right now, but also understand the market could be as volatile as ever. 

In hyper inflation id like to own high quality companies that will continue to make money in the ever changing economy. S&P 500 is a great bet, but if you can guess the surviving companies, I think theyíre a good bet.
First of all I honestly donít think that hyper inflation is an issue, at least for the near term. And while itís true that central banks are globally inflating their balance sheets, there is way too much unemployment and excess production capacity to put a squeeze on either producer or consumer prices. Over time as this cycle begins to correct itself, governments will eventually begin to shrink their balance sheets, interest rates will eventually rise and weíll likely see some inflation come back over time. However, I believe weíre at least several years from that issue.

A further thought on this issue: several weeks ago I wrote an article that DEFLATION is the killer for financial asset prices. Whether it be housing prices, other real estate/financial assets the decline in prices will tend to lower the values of all as many investors and consumers resist investing and/or spend in anticipation of even lower prices in the future. Unfortunately that leads to a vicious cycle that further aggravates the situation.
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Dumb ole famrboy

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2020, 03:01:11 pm »

The DXY has fallen from 102.82 in March to 93.25.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #25 on: August 04, 2020, 04:39:12 pm »

The DXY has fallen from 102.82 in March to 93.25.
Yep, and part of that weaking in the dollar has been designed by the Fed. They want to make foreign operations for many of our multi-national corporations to be benefited as a result of the higher exchange rates on foreign currencies of those operations.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #26 on: August 04, 2020, 04:48:05 pm »

My number one fear right now is hyper inflation.  The only thing holding back the the price of the dollar halving right now (100% inflation) is the minimum wage going from 7.50 to 15.  Iím absolutely terrified of holding cash right now, but also understand the market could be as volatile as ever. 

In hyper inflation id like to own high quality companies that will continue to make money in the ever changing economy. S&P 500 is a great bet, but if you can guess the surviving companies, I think theyíre a good bet.
Whether or not we eventually have hyperinflation or not, the increase of the minimum wage is not necessarily a result. Consider that with massive number of unemployed will help alleviate that problem; itís we have extremely LOW unemployment that you have more of threat of prices rising. Besides, more pocket money in the pocket of those who ARE employed should help recycle money back into the economy (and hopefully the bottom line and/or earnings of companies subject to the increased minimum wage).
One last thing: IMO one should ALWAYS choose companies with excellent/innovative management, strong balance sheets (check liquidity as well as ROE-return on shareholder equity, leaders (or future leaders) in their industry, as well farsighted visions and products/services that will be in demand down the road.
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ErieHog

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #27 on: August 04, 2020, 05:42:58 pm »

My number one fear right now is hyper inflation.  The only thing holding back the the price of the dollar halving right now (100% inflation) is the minimum wage going from 7.50 to 15.  Iím absolutely terrified of holding cash right now, but also understand the market could be as volatile as ever. 

In hyper inflation id like to own high quality companies that will continue to make money in the ever changing economy. S&P 500 is a great bet, but if you can guess the surviving companies, I think theyíre a good bet. 

There are considerable pressures, especially in a time of global economic downturn, against hyperinflation.   While still a longer term concern, the short term reasons are overwhelming against that event.
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Stephen Hawgking

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #28 on: August 04, 2020, 06:15:59 pm »

Ricepig is totally correct. If it keeps you up at night then whatever you have in the market is too much. As optimistic as I am, at least for the present, I always counseled my clients to not risk more than they can afford to lose. Yes, over the long run the markets tend to advance most of the time, however, there are NO investments worth losing sleep over.

I wouldnít say it keeps me up at night.  I just wonder is all.  Iíve been incredibly lucky in my investing career.  I started investing at age 24 in spring 2009 near the bottom of the Financial Crisis market.   Now, I skirted through this to this point.  After hearing from yíall, it helped me reconfirm my feeling that I should just be happy with that good fortune and just stay the course.
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rzrbackramsfan

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #29 on: August 04, 2020, 08:15:19 pm »

Whether or not we eventually have hyperinflation or not, the increase of the minimum wage is not necessarily a result. Consider that with massive number of unemployed will help alleviate that problem; itís we have extremely LOW unemployment that you have more of threat of prices rising. Besides, more pocket money in the pocket of those who ARE employed should help recycle money back into the economy (and hopefully the bottom line and/or earnings of companies subject to the increased minimum wage).
One last thing: IMO one should ALWAYS choose companies with excellent/innovative management, strong balance sheets (check liquidity as well as ROE-return on shareholder equity, leaders (or future leaders) in their industry, as well farsighted visions and products/services that will be in demand down the road.

There are considerable pressures, especially in a time of global economic downturn, against hyperinflation.   While still a longer term concern, the short term reasons are overwhelming against that event.


While youíre right, high unemployment in a free market doesnít lend to increased wages and inflation, this isnít a free market. 

The left (politics) is looking like theyíre going to take over the house, senate and executive.  Federal minimum wage is overdue to double.  Inflation really has increased at a greater rate than the CPI would lead you to believe, and if the left wins, theyíre going to demand double the minimum wage (at the least). They also might demand universal basic income, further increasing the wages needed to lure people to work. 

In either of these scenarios, the economy will probably be reeling.  In a free market business would close, unemployment rises even more and wages decease to equilibrium, however again, not a free market.  The new radical left wonít let minimum wage drop or allow any of the citizens to suffer.  Theyíll just print, print, print.   add on top of that a $50T Green new bill and itís a pressure cooker for hyper inflation.   
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1HourToHogville

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #30 on: August 04, 2020, 09:48:05 pm »

While youíre right, high unemployment in a free market doesnít lend to increased wages and inflation, this isnít a free market. 

The left (politics) is looking like theyíre going to take over the house, senate and executive.  Federal minimum wage is overdue to double.  Inflation really has increased at a greater rate than the CPI would lead you to believe, and if the left wins, theyíre going to demand double the minimum wage (at the least). They also might demand universal basic income, further increasing the wages needed to lure people to work. 

In either of these scenarios, the economy will probably be reeling.  In a free market business would close, unemployment rises even more and wages decease to equilibrium, however again, not a free market.  The new radical left wonít let minimum wage drop or allow any of the citizens to suffer.  Theyíll just print, print, print.   add on top of that a $50T Green new bill and itís a pressure cooker for hyper inflation.   
Legal minimum wage and real minimum wage are two different animals. The legal wage is so far below the market now itís irrelevant. $15 may be above market in some flyover states but it wonít have much of an impact nationwide. The stagnation of real wages over many years has hindered the growth rate of our economy and led to a further imbalance in incomes and wealth concentration.  The vanishing middle class is a real problem.
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rzrbackramsfan

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #31 on: August 04, 2020, 09:54:33 pm »

Legal minimum wage and real minimum wage are two different animals. The legal wage is so far below the market now itís irrelevant. $15 may be above market in some flyover states but it wonít have much of an impact nationwide. The stagnation of real wages over many years has hindered the growth rate of our economy and led to a further imbalance in incomes and wealth concentration.  The vanishing middle class is a real problem.

I did not know that... albeit I disagree a little bit. I think how I could live on minimum wage in nyc (15 here I believe).  I think in most other places 15 would allow people to live a comfortable life... either way, there is a large number of people that believe ďwages are much too lowĒ and theyíre going to make their politicians do something about it.  Whether it will be the wages increasing or the continued printing of money to actually cause the inflation, idk.
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ErieHog

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #32 on: August 04, 2020, 10:05:16 pm »

Legal minimum wage and real minimum wage are two different animals. The legal wage is so far below the market now itís irrelevant. $15 may be above market in some flyover states but it wonít have much of an impact nationwide. The stagnation of real wages over many years has hindered the growth rate of our economy and led to a further imbalance in incomes and wealth concentration.  The vanishing middle class is a real problem.

"The Vanishing Middle Class is a real problem"-- there is a reason why this has been a refrain since the Nixon-Agnew election-- because we have a really crappy definition of what class is,  and because the standard of living has increased so profoundly since.
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rzrbackramsfan

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #33 on: August 04, 2020, 10:06:31 pm »

80.4 million people in the US make minimum wage... wow.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2017/home.htm

And you’re telling me that raising the minimum wage from 7.5 to 15 or 15 to 30 where it’s already 15 isn’t going to have a monumental effect on prices?

And yes, raising minimum wage will never raise minimum wage workers real income in the long run (because of inflation)

Edit: I didn’t even read the article haha. 80.4 million workers are paid hourly.  1.8 million are paid minimum wage or less.

Regardless, if people demand so much more more money and benefits without working more, either companies will pay more and raise prices to compensate or the government will print money which will increase the money supply and encourage employees to demand more wages... inflation from two different ways!
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 10:24:49 pm by rzrbackramsfan »
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rzrbackramsfan

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #34 on: August 04, 2020, 10:09:36 pm »

"The Vanishing Middle Class is a real problem"-- there is a reason why this has been a refrain since the Nixon-Agnew election-- because we have a really crappy definition of what class is,  and because the standard of living has increased so profoundly since.

.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 08:23:42 am by rzrbackramsfan »
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Dumb ole famrboy

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #35 on: August 05, 2020, 06:23:29 am »

Yep, and part of that weaking in the dollar has been designed by the Fed. They want to make foreign operations for many of our multi-national corporations to be benefited as a result of the higher exchange rates on foreign currencies of those operations.
Just adding something a bit more abstract to the discussion by suggesting that during this period of high volatility we are not only trying to discover the real value of different stocks/companies but also the real value of the unit we use to measure the value of these stocks/companies.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #36 on: August 05, 2020, 12:31:40 pm »

80.4 million people in the US make minimum wage... wow.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2017/home.htm

And youíre telling me that raising the minimum wage from 7.5 to 15 or 15 to 30 where itís already 15 isnít going to have a monumental effect on prices?

And yes, raising minimum wage will never raise minimum wage workers real income in the long run (because of inflation)

Edit: I didnít even read the article haha. 80.4 million workers are paid hourly.  1.8 million are paid minimum wage or less.

Regardless, if people demand so much more more money and benefits without working more, either companies will pay more and raise prices to compensate or the government will print money which will increase the money supply and encourage employees to demand more wages... inflation from two different ways!
Sorry but your reasoning is a little ďfuzzyĒ. While Iíll agree that eventually weíll ďpay the piperĒ with the government printing money like weíre actually paying Monopoly, the fact that manufacturing facilities in most industries are well short of being considered ďfullĒ AND the fact there is such massive unemployment at the moment lends itself to inflation NOT a near term consideration. Itís when manufacturing capacity is tight AND unemployment is low that we experience inflation. Yes, the minimum wage will put more money in the pockets of many of the employed, however,, itís only when the ability to produce with factories are full (or near full anyway) AND companies have to pay up significantly in order to draw in additional workers that weíre liable to have to worry about major inflationary issues. Heck, there are far too many folks whoíd love have and job, ANY job and at virtually any compensation. Itís only when we have all three that the issue of excessive inflation really becomes a concern. BTW weíve had several instances of increases in the minimum wage that havenít necessarily raised the inflation much (if any) at all.
BTW lest we forget that having more disposable income in the pockets of many consumers isnít all bad. Consider the fact that the ordinary consumer accounts for approximately 75% of GDP. Therefore if you want to grow the economy you have to have both more folks employed AND more money available to spend to help prop up the economy.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 12:44:41 pm by Vantage 8 dude »
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #37 on: August 05, 2020, 12:33:22 pm »

Just adding something a bit more abstract to the discussion by suggesting that during this period of high volatility we are not only trying to discover the real value of different stocks/companies but also the real value of the unit we use to measure the value of these stocks/companies.
Hunh ???
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ricepig

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #38 on: August 05, 2020, 01:21:37 pm »

Hunh ???

Well, heís either taking about the P/E ratio, or the dollarís value, or something completely else.
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HogPharmer

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #39 on: August 05, 2020, 01:25:33 pm »

Well, heís either taking about the P/E ratio, or the dollarís value, or something completely else.

Definitely 1 of those 3.

Possibly 2 of those 3.
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ricepig

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #40 on: August 05, 2020, 01:31:17 pm »

Definitely 1 of those 3.

Possibly 2 of those 3.

You probably should give up selling drugs, and become a market guru.
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HogPharmer

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #41 on: August 05, 2020, 02:14:41 pm »

You probably should give up selling drugs, and become a market guru.

What can I say? I'm good with numbers....
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #42 on: August 05, 2020, 02:48:54 pm »

Well, heís either taking about the P/E ratio, or the dollarís value, or something completely else.
Well who really knows. It could also be a 4th or 5th option ??? ::) :o
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kodiakisland

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #43 on: August 05, 2020, 11:44:43 pm »

I got 70% out of the market last September because I believed that the market was BS and due to crash.  In hindsight, that was probably stupid, but I got lucky and got all the way back in almost at the absolute bottom earlier this year.  Iím in my mid 30s.  Only touched my retirement once prior to last September. 

Iím not super inclined to make that move again, but Iím starting to feel that the market is BS again.  My retirement is at an all time high, and this has been the best year Iíve ever had already.
  I just canít believe that this stock market is real.  Are any of you getting out?  I know we have some smart folks on this board, and Iím interested to know your thoughts.

P.s.  I am not super sophisticated or interested in money, so I am nervous about asking because some of you guys seem to know a whole lot

Just checked my fidelity investments.  Hadn't looked since around March because I didn't want to know.  Wasn't going to change anything, so it didn't matter.  Well, pleasantly surprised. 1YR is 32.8% and YTD is 25.1%.  I have gone conservative in a lot of areas, but not getting out just yet.  COVID wasn't quite the killer I thought it would be.

FGKFX had been good to me.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 12:00:28 am by kodiakisland »
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EarlCampbellsHotLink

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #44 on: August 06, 2020, 05:24:13 am »

A friend of mine went to work for a small company in Washington in the late 90s early 2000s......Amazon.  He told me to buy them and like an idiot I didn;t.  Bought  a few years ago and have been doing pretty well, but what might have been.  Hell, I would  have drank myself to death and partied with hookers, the rest I would have wasted...hahahah.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 06:50:57 am by EarlCampbellsHotLink »
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Dumb ole famrboy

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #45 on: August 06, 2020, 06:31:14 am »

I said I was adding something more abstract to the discussion and the DXY is only 1 aspect. It only measures the value of the dollar compared to a basket of other currencies. The US has injected a massive amount of dollars into the money supply due to covid-19 but has the other currencies. So the DXY is only a discovery of the value of a highly inflated dollar compared to a basket of other highly inflated currencies.


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farfromgroovins

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #46 on: August 06, 2020, 08:53:02 am »

What can I say? I'm good with numbers....

Name 3 things about yourself.

"I'm great with kids and bad with numbers."

farfromgroovins

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #47 on: August 06, 2020, 09:06:29 am »

My 401k is about 70% stock and in March it dipped almost 25%.  I figured it would but am in it for the long haul so at 47yo, I am not backing off just yet.  It rebounded last month to its pre-covid level so I'm riding the waves.

I will have to make that decision on dialing the 70% back at some point.  I knew several guys close to retiring in the late 90s when the market was teflon coated and had a huge chunk in the market......and then boom!  For them, it became a discussion of working longer or keep it aggressive during retirement and hope it regains some while they are withdrawing.

For me it is all about keeping the right mix for my age.

 
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #48 on: August 06, 2020, 11:43:39 am »

My 401k is about 70% stock and in March it dipped almost 25%.  I figured it would but am in it for the long haul so at 47yo, I am not backing off just yet.  It rebounded last month to its pre-covid level so I'm riding the waves.

I will have to make that decision on dialing the 70% back at some point.  I knew several guys close to retiring in the late 90s when the market was teflon coated and had a huge chunk in the market......and then boom!  For them, it became a discussion of working longer or keep it aggressive during retirement and hope it regains some while they are withdrawing.

For me it is all about keeping the right mix for my age.
Absolutely no doubt. And while I remain an overall bull, Iím beginning to slowly reduce my stock holdings primarily where I can sell a portion of my position(s) and recover the original investment. Thanks to the massive run weíve had IMO itís not the worse idea Iíve had over the years. It also helps me to raise some additional cash as I continue to scour the sectors and individual stocks that have either been ignored or havenít yet reflected the opportunities going forward.
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HogPharmer

Re: Are you getting out?
« Reply #49 on: August 06, 2020, 12:23:12 pm »

Absolutely no doubt. And while I remain an overall bull, Iím beginning to slowly reduce my stock holdings primarily where I can sell a portion of my position(s) and recover the original investment. Thanks to the massive run weíve had IMO itís not the worse idea Iíve had over the years. It also helps me to raise some additional cash as I continue to scour the sectors and individual stocks that have either been ignored or havenít yet reflected the opportunities going forward.

I'll be interested to see what these end up being.
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