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Author Topic: Strange draft.  (Read 2816 times)

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bennyl08

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Strange draft.
« on: April 26, 2020, 12:31:42 pm »

What a strange draft.

Most draft databases will have between 500 and 600 potentially draftable players. Inevitably, 2-3 players will be drafted that don't even make those lists. However, in this class, depending on who you look at, anywhere from 10-15 players were drafted that were just considered undraftable elsewise.

For some context, players like Devwah Whaley and Chase freaking Harrell were in most of those lists. Like, 10 players who were longer shots than those two were drafted. Another three player were drafted who ranked at the bottom of the udfa ranks as well.

Scoota had better measurables and better production than Greenlaw, but he went undrafted. There must be some off the field concerns with him or something. O'Grady I'm a bit surprised he didn't go late in the draft as a swing for the fences type of pick, but I think we all know what made him slide out.

Patriots taking a kicker in the 5th round is pretty early, but they go and get a kicker who was lower on the draft boards than Devwah Whaley. Then taking TE's pretty early who most considered very late round prospect or possibly udfa's. Yeah, the patriots almost always make a handful of headscratchers but you usually trust them because, hey, they're the patriots. But man, this draft just felt different. Makes you wonder if CBB's dog actually was doing the drafting.

You have GB trading up and giving up a decent chunk to get a QB that wasn't particularly highly coveted, jumping ahead of teams that weren't in the market in the first place. Essentially giving up on building around Rodgers who lacks much help in GB.

Similarly, Eagles trading up to get Jalen Hurts? In the 2nd round?

The drafting of TE's this draft in general was um, unconventional to say the least.

The first half of the first round didn't really have anything crazy or unexpected. But man, this draft had a lot more headscratcher picks than usual. It'll either go down as one of the most genius drafts ever or one of the dumbest.

ErieHog

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Re: Strange draft.
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2020, 05:35:07 pm »

Just no.  Scoota being undrafted was entirely foreseeable.  His numbers weren't better than Dre's, especially when it came to strength and applied athleticism.   The only spot he had an advantage was in footspeed, and Dre still has had better 40 times than the number that Scoota posted at the Combine.   

The NFL scouting reports from the combine tell you why one was drafted, and the other wasn't.  Look at their criticisms and praises of each player-  one uses their athleticism and has a gift for man coverage.  The other is praised for being aggressive.   The critiques of one of them are a laundry list of physical shortcomings, the other a list of motivational shortcomings.   
 
That one of these was drafted, and the other was not, should surprise no one.
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bennyl08

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Re: Strange draft.
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2020, 06:53:23 pm »

Just no.  Scoota being undrafted was entirely foreseeable.  His numbers weren't better than Dre's, especially when it came to strength and applied athleticism.   The only spot he had an advantage was in footspeed, and Dre still has had better 40 times than the number that Scoota posted at the Combine.   

Just no.

          Greenlaw    Harris
Ht        5'11.4"        6'
Wt         231         234
Arm   32.25       31.375
Forty    4.73         4.69 *(Greenlaw's being handheld at pro day)
20        2.68        2.65
10        1.65        1.68/1.64 (electronic vs handheld at combine)
Bench    24          18
Vert      33            33.5
Broad   9'9"        9'3"
Shuttle  4.56         4.32
3-cone   7.21       7.06 *(pro day value improved on the sloppy 7.38 at the combine)

Them's the values. Greenlaw wins on longer arms, more bench reps, and a longer standing broad jump.
Harris wins at height, weight, forty (and all the splits in between), vertical, shuttle, and 3-cone.

Quote
The NFL scouting reports from the combine tell you why one was drafted, and the other wasn't.  Look at their criticisms and praises of each player-  one uses their athleticism and has a gift for man coverage.  The other is praised for being aggressive.   The critiques of one of them are a laundry list of physical shortcomings, the other a list of motivational shortcomings.   
 
That one of these was drafted, and the other was not, should surprise no one.

Quote
Greenlaw:
Overview
Run and chase 4-3 WILL linebacker with the quickness to flow ahead of blocks to the football, but a lack of willful aggression to fire downhill and put his stamp on games. It will be difficult for Greenlaw to make a living with nothing more than clean-up tackles on his own side of the ball so he needs to turn that speed and athleticism into weapons of disruption. His speed and athleticism give him a chance to carve out a career as a special teams ace and nickel cover talent.

Strengths
Four-year starter
Smooth athlete with loose hips
Plays with quick flow to the football
Rangy with NFL-caliber play speed
Shows ability to chase down jet sweeps and drag crossing routes
Displays body control and tempo in his movement
He's usually be around the football
Above-average agility as open field finisher
Reactive athleticism mirror ball-carrier and tackle in space
Possesses physical gifts for man coverage

Weaknesses
Looks small, plays small
Rare to trigger downhill and attack backfield
Too much hesitation in stepping into run fits
Needs to improve functional strength
Gets wired to blocks rather than playing off of them
Needs to get better at eluding lead blocks and climbers
Below-average pop in pads as tackler
Doesn't play with desired football IQ
Gets caught out of position in run game and zone drops
Sources Tell Us

"Good athlete. Former safety. He runs well, but I don't think he's tough enough to trust him in a game. He better be really good on special teams unless he finds more dog inside him." - NFC area scout

Quote
Harris

Overview
Harris is most definitely a full-grown man when it comes to the physicality, frame and strength needed in the box. He plays with eyes past blockers and does a nice job of playing around or through them, constricting the gap with his downhill flow. However, he doesn't have much range and tends to play on skates when forced to make sudden, reactive movements in space. He offers very little third-down value and will need to shine on special teams to solidify a spot as a two-down backup at inside linebacker.

Strengths
Burly upper body with filled-out, powerful frame
High-score tackler with three straight 100-tackle seasons
Adequate key and diagnose skill
Plays with a thumper's mentality
Keeps eyes on ball-carrier and not blocker
Shows ability to power through climbing blocker's edge
Takes away runner's angles and clogs the lanes with force
Explodes hips into his targets as a striker
Wants to play as physical as possible

Weaknesses
Hips are tight and doesn't play with natural bend
Speed and playmaking range fall short
Allows blockers into his frame without punching to separate
Lacks functional peripheral vision to avoid blocks
Movement in space is too rigid and limiting
Plays on skates when asked to change direction quickly
Missed tackles could pile up against cutback runners
Lateral agility to tackle is suspect
Unable to open hips for smooth drops in space
Not a third down option

So that's what they say, but all objective measures suggest otherwise. 3-cone drill is really a hip looseness drill. Harris didn't do too well at the combine, but with a .3s improvement at the pro day, he did way better than Greenlaw at the pro day. That suggests pretty loose hips. That 7.06 time puts Harris in the top half of the combine (where only a third or so actually participated, with those who didn't either injured or knowing they wouldn't perform too well.)

Further, Harris had 9 pbu's to Greenlaw's 3 during their time here. If Greenlaw's coverage was so tight that it was avoided and Harris was routinely picked on, then that would explain it, but that isn't what happened.

Harris shows better hips, better explosion, and better speed than Greenlaw, but why are those considered weaknesses for Harris while worst test results are listed as strengths for Greenlaw? Why did Harris have such ridiculously better stats than Greenlaw as well?

Tone is hard to convey over the internet, but other than your assumption that Greenlaw tested better which is absolutely not true, my tone shouldn't be as me saying I'm right and you're wrong. I want to learn what are others seeing that I clearly am not? 99.99 of the time one player tests well but doesn't play well, the player who plays better has better stats. Is this that one in a thousand times where that doesn't hold? Can you show me on some videos of them in college where Harris is clearly inferior to Greenlaw?
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: Strange draft.
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2020, 07:12:58 pm »

benny bringing the smoke

ErieHog

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Re: Strange draft.
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2020, 07:35:57 pm »

No, I'm saying that when you test very similarly-- which the differences here are split, with Greenlaw winning a number of important ones including strength ones--  then how you play is far more important than your numerical productivity.

An important part of raw attributes is their application in an athletic task, where Greenlaw *far* outshines Harris.

Here's a couple of good videos that show the man coverage of Greenlaw vs. Harris


The first minute is almost all highlights of him planting a foot and coming up to stop the run;  his only coverage play is downhill,  but you do get a peak at the 1:03 mark about the problem with Harris in coverage, when he does eventually come up off his man and make a play on a QB.  He's stiff, upright, and it takes a moment for him to turn his hips and get upfield after the QB.   He's downhill-downhill-downhill all day.   Again at 2:24, he's upright and stiff;  3:21, playing inside out.  Stiff.  Slow reacting.   He's great at getting upfield after things.

Harris has terrible hips by comparison.   The reason he gets more PBU is because people target him to throw at him in isolation-- better cover guys aren't thrown at as much.

Here's a set of  Harris and Dre highlights that show just how different he is in recognition and fluidity.   Harris' film is more limited in general, but Dre's is a little easier to find.


Within the first 8 seconds you see him not only make a play in zone, but flips from the outside leverage he's been playing with, trying to force everything inside, to making a play outside-- its most visible in the replay at 11 seconds.   Scoota can't do that.  At the 37/38 second mark,  he recognizes another problem in coverage with the corner coming up late to his responsibility, and flips his hips to pursue a play outside, and strips the football.  At the 2:54 mark,  he parks himself under a deep middle route against a slot receiver in what should be a coverage exploit mismatch.  Instead, he picks off the pass.  Again at the 3:46 mark, another pick  in similar circumstances- reads, flips his hips, and gets out to the throwing lane in a way that Harris just can't.  He does it again at 4:21.

And of course, there's the game saving tackle against Seattle last year that shows it perfectly-- coming off his assignment with recognition, and turning inside to make a play on Hollister


Harris will make more plays in the 2 yards on each side of the line of scrimmage.   That's his value.  Greenlaw in the 5-10 yards beyond the LOS, which is his value-- and in the modern NFL, the later is far, far, far more valuable.   

bennyl08

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Re: Strange draft.
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2020, 11:41:01 pm »

I'm starting to get sleepy so I'm going to really look at the video parts of your post tomorrow.

But I wanted to make sure to say thank you for the informative post. I appreciate you taking the time to really break it down.

#1 STUNNA

Re: Strange draft.
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2020, 10:26:33 am »

strange for sure... what I got out of it atleast for some teams is that they are chasing the Chiefs way... you cant stop them.. you have to try and score with them...

RebelliousHog

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Re: Strange draft.
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2020, 03:00:46 pm »

Gotta agree about Green Bay.  They needed receivers in the worst way and it was a receiver rich draft.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2020, 04:01:53 pm by RebelliousHog »
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