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Author Topic: Florida Derby  (Read 1144 times)

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HogFanInBryant

Florida Derby
« on: March 26, 2020, 09:27:19 pm »

There is ONLY one horse in here that I can see running with Ette and Tiz...and that is Independence Hall.  On paper he does not look to be as good as these...but it is amazing this time of year what happens when you add distance and see a possible shake up with how the pace goes.
I love the 12 in race 13 and will single him!
Who are you all betting in this race?  I'm going to play the following $6 pick 3 starting with race 12:
1,9/12/7,9,12
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holeinthewall

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2020, 09:55:35 am »

Late pick 5

5,6.12/5,9/9/1,10,12,16/7

Just going to single Tiz the Law looks like there could be a hot pace.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2020, 12:29:06 pm »

Late pick 5

5,6.12/5,9/9/1,10,12,16/7

Just going to single Tiz the Law looks like there could be a hot pace.

Good luck today!
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2020, 01:32:17 pm »

Pick Six Ticket:

2467812/125612/4579/9/234781012/7 = $168

Pick 5.  Play same horses but add 3,5 in last leg and double it up to the 7 for a $1 ticket= $280. 
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2020, 02:41:28 pm »

Pick Six Ticket:

2467812/125612/4579/9/234781012/7 = $168

Pick 5.  Play same horses but add 3,5 in last leg and double it up to the 7 for a $1 ticket= $280. 

Man you loaded up where I singled in race 13...making me think twice!
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2020, 02:49:30 pm »

Donít.  Youíve got a good horse singled.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2020, 02:52:03 pm »

I donít have fav in first leg of pick 6.  Oops, yes I do.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2020, 02:58:52 pm »

Walsh runs 1/2 in Sand Springs and longer price wins.  See that so often.  Thought 12 was home for sure coming out of the turn.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2020, 03:07:17 pm »

Pick 6 pool close to 11 mil

HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2020, 03:28:54 pm »

Pick 6 pool close to 11 mil

When you are 1 of the only shows on TV...the gambler pays attention!
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Porked Tongue

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2020, 03:38:22 pm »

Got that TRI at Gulfstream just now.  Caught me up for the day.

Kinda like the 5 Spice As Nice for a Win ticket here.

cbhawg03

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2020, 03:47:56 pm »

Single in first leg of Rainbow 6, that did win, and single in the last leg with HFIB's horse.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2020, 03:49:42 pm »

Got that TRI at Gulfstream just now.  Caught me up for the day.

Kinda like the 5 Spice As Nice for a Win ticket here.

Trying to beat the 5 with the 6 here...strictly playing the pace here and think the 6 could come flying!

Porked Tongue

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #13 on: March 28, 2020, 03:59:07 pm »

4, 5. 7 and 9 for a 30 cent Super.

No brain play here, just action on heavy chalk in large field.
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cbhawg03

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2020, 04:00:30 pm »

4, 5. 7 and 9 for a 30 cent Super.

No brain play here, just action on heavy chalk in large field.

NO chance
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Porked Tongue

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2020, 04:03:44 pm »

NO chance
Thanks for the love.  Just a boredom play.  :)
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Porked Tongue

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2020, 04:05:55 pm »

Trying to beat the 5 with the 6 here...strictly playing the pace here and think the 6 could come flying!
BINGO
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2020, 04:08:02 pm »

BINGO

Well I will take it but this was a lucky win.  I saw several speed balls burning each other out giving the 6 a chance to come from out of it...but OMG Paco goes to the lead and wires them with a 50 second half mile?  Insane!
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cbhawg03

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2020, 04:33:22 pm »

Thanks for the love.  Just a boredom play.  :)

Well I had the 6 so I was against what you had posted.  Don't openly root against any board member, however do against some trainers
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2020, 04:49:50 pm »

Nothing like being out of your pick 3 by getting beat in the first leg with your choices being 3/5 and 5/2 LOL!
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2020, 04:54:01 pm »

But, of course.  Ken McPeek makes it all crash.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2020, 05:23:05 pm »

Winner shouldnít come down,
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2020, 05:23:49 pm »

Man you loaded up where I singled in race 13...making me think twice!

Horrible trip for 12
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #23 on: March 28, 2020, 05:47:23 pm »

Horrible trip for 12

That 12 hole is almost impossible on the turf at the distance.  I'll live and learn.
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userpick

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #24 on: March 28, 2020, 05:49:36 pm »

Derby looks like a terrible betting race. If I had to bet it, I'd bet Independence Hall. 1 is a longshot I might key underneath.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #25 on: March 28, 2020, 06:02:03 pm »

Heís good.  1:50 flat.  Gotta go look at the other dirt final times
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userpick

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #26 on: March 28, 2020, 06:03:39 pm »

Solid horse. Will be interesting to see how he looks in September. Didn't beat much but down the stretch was impressive. Perfect ride by Franco as well.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #27 on: March 28, 2020, 06:11:11 pm »

I am going to guess he regressed.  Identifier won the Sand Springs in 150.2.  He hadnít topped 78 on BSF scale, but even if you give him a number reflective of 2nd and 3rd place finishers, it is, at best, mid 90s.   That would make Taz the Law 98-99.  Maybe count it as caused by lay-off?
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #28 on: March 28, 2020, 06:18:56 pm »

I am going to guess he regressed.  Identifier won the Sand Springs in 150.2.  He hadnít topped 78 on BSF scale, but even if you give him a number reflective of 2nd and 3rd place finishers, it is, at best, mid 90s.   That would make Taz the Law 98-99.  Maybe count it as caused by lay-off?

I think once he eased past Ete he tried to glide to the finish line.  Not sure if he even knew anyone else was running at him.  Tiz might be ready to throw in a clunker in his next race though.  I'll try to beat him then.
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oldman1015

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #29 on: March 28, 2020, 06:22:49 pm »

Hit a $1 pick 3. Had the 2 and Zulu but left Paco out in 2nd leg of pick 5. Costs me a lot of money. Damn I have 4 out of 5 a lot this year. Still mad $119 today but could have been a good one. Not sure why I got paid on 4 out of 5.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #30 on: March 28, 2020, 06:30:49 pm »

Hit a $1 pick 3. Had the 2 and Zulu but left Paco out in 2nd leg of pick 5. Costs me a lot of money. Damn I have 4 out of 5 a lot this year. Still mad $119 today but could have been a good one. Not sure why I got paid on 4 out of 5.

$119 will put bullets in the gun for tomorrow...it only takes one BIG race!
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Torqued pork

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #31 on: March 28, 2020, 06:52:02 pm »

Tiz didn't blow me away,  but he did miss a couple of workouts. The 80/1 horse holding on to place makes me think the depth of the field may have been a little overrated going in. We'll see.

It will be interesting to see who shows up for the Arkansas Derby.
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oldman1015

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #32 on: March 28, 2020, 06:57:25 pm »

$119 will put bullets in the gun for tomorrow...it only takes one BIG race!

True been going $100 or 200 the other way lately. Kinda gun shy.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #33 on: March 28, 2020, 07:56:39 pm »

Tiz didn't blow me away,  but he did miss a couple of workouts. The 80/1 horse holding on to place makes me think the depth of the field may have been a little overrated going in. We'll see.

It will be interesting to see who shows up for the Arkansas Derby.

Really hard to know how they get a good number with him with 2nd place horse hanging around.  He won by 3.  2nd place horse never topped 80 in any race in his life, except 1, and he had never been 2 turns and wasnít bred for it. 
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kingoftherapids

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #34 on: March 29, 2020, 02:55:05 am »

Gulfstream late p5 always pays 4/5. doesn't matter if it is hit 5/5 or not
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oldman1015

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #35 on: March 29, 2020, 08:00:51 am »

Gulfstream late p5 always pays 4/5. doesn't matter if it is hit 5/5 or not
Didnít know that. Should play theirs more often then. Thanks
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #36 on: March 29, 2020, 10:06:08 am »

BSF of 96.  He came back to the pack. 
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heavylifting

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #37 on: March 29, 2020, 11:03:10 am »

Walsh runs 1/2 in Sand Springs and longer price wins.  See that so often.  Thought 12 was home for sure coming out of the turn.
Then you must have loved the Pan American (12th race) where Maker ran 1-2 with his 9-1 shot winning the photo over his odds-on.
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userpick

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #38 on: March 29, 2020, 11:15:09 am »

Tiz ran a timeform fig of 121. So far, I believe Charlatan has ran the fastest at 123. Nadal and Tiz are basically identical timeform wise. Too bad the derby wonít be in May because it wouldíve been a lot of fun.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2020, 12:06:47 pm »

Tiz ran a timeform fig of 121. So far, I believe Charlatan has ran the fastest at 123. Nadal and Tiz are basically identical timeform wise. Too bad the derby wonít be in May because it wouldíve been a lot of fun.

I would like to better understand Timeform scale.  Charlatans last 2 races, from a BSF perspective, were 3-4 lengths faster than Fla Derby.  Tiz the Lawís race before that was faster than the 100 he got, so the difference between he and Charlatans races based on that race is negligible.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2020, 12:10:40 pm »

Would like to know what TF gave identifier and 2nd place Fla Derby yesterday, what numbers they got in races preceding yesterday.  They both improved substantially from BSF perspective
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ghostzapper

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2020, 12:11:47 pm »

Then you must have loved the Pan American (12th race) where Maker ran 1-2 with his 9-1 shot winning the photo over his odds-on.

True.  Donít often see it play out twice on same card.
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holeinthewall

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Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2020, 07:17:14 am »

With no SA Derby, Wood Memorial or Blue Grass and no Kentucky Derby in a few weeks why wouldn't some of these horses run back in the Ar Derby for the money and to keep their form. They have to run somewhere between now and September
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oldman1015

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2020, 08:45:58 am »

With no SA Derby, Wood Memorial or Blue Grass and no Kentucky Derby in a few weeks why wouldn't some of these horses run back in the Ar Derby for the money and to keep their form. They have to run somewhere between now and September
I've wondered that and if they'll turn some out and start them back racing in July or so. I don't have any idea.
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Torqued pork

Re: Florida Derby
« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2020, 10:52:48 am »

Talks are underway to allow racing at Santa Anita as early as this weekend.
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