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Author Topic: Impact of Early Signing Period  (Read 690 times)

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bennyl08

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Impact of Early Signing Period
« on: December 02, 2019, 02:19:02 pm »

Below are the schools who hired a new coach in 2018, same year as Morris was hired and their recruiting rankings that year (with their 2016 and 2017 rankings in parenthesis).

Nebraska 23rd (previously 26 then 23)
Florida 14th (previously 13th then 11th)
UCLA 19th (previously 13th then 20th)
aTm: 17th (previously 18th and 13th)
FSU: 11th (previously 3rd then 6th)
MSU: 27th (previously 28th then 24th)
Ark: 49th (previously 23rd then 27th)
Ari: 61st (previously 48th then 45th)
Tenn: 21st (previously 14th then 17th)
ASU: 36th (previously 24th then 32nd)
OM: 32nd (previously 5th then 31st)
OrSt: 70th (previously 58th then 51st)
Ore: 13th (previously 27th then 19th)

Arkansas, Arizona, and Oregon State are the only ones to really get hit pretty hard that season in recruiting with a new coach.

Oregon State and Arizona had the weakest recruiting in general. Though, ASU and Ore both hired new coaches the same year and neither of them struggled particularly in recruiting. So, it isn't so much location. UO obviously is a much bigger brand that OSU but UA and ASU are both pretty similar in terms of winning and national brand.

Further, MSU and Nebraska recruited pretty similarly to Arkansas and neither of them struggled with a new coach in the early signing period.

Lastly, doesn't even really seem to reflect future coaching ability. Oregon State's coach is doing quite well now. Arizona's isn't. OM's fired Matt Lue and FSU fired Taggert. Scott Frost hasn't exactly taken off at Nebraska either.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/1/18/16819122/february-signing-day-early-period-college-football

Also looking at 2018, you'll see that 26% of the total 4 and 5* players remained unsigned after early signing period. 33% of the top 100 players remained unsigned. Post-early signing day, most teams still had about 3 committed but unsigned players.

So to me, obviously the early signing day makes things more difficult. No if's, and's, or but's about it. But the impact isn't that big. 10 of the 13 P5 schools that I saw with new coaches in 2018 all recruited pretty similarly to their norm. Only 3 had any major setbacks. In any given year, how many fully committed players really flip from a school? From November onwards? Ignoring say a July flip, yeah, we may have a handful, but typically no more than 3 in any given year flip late in the recruiting season. So, based on the actual numbers and facts, recruiting in today's game isn't all that different from before the signing period. A bit harder, but not some death sentence.

*Why 2018? Well, that's the year that Morris was hired for starters. Two, it was more than I wanted to keep going for 2017 and 2019. Justified by the fact that 2017 was the first year and still figuring things out. Plus the data I saw on how many remained unsigned was for 2018.

hawginbigd1

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Re: Impact of Early Signing Period
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2019, 02:28:04 pm »

Good work 👍 Benny, of course we had to have the absolute worst fall but some of that was related to only 17 spots. However I think the percentage of players available are far too misleading, there is some# of those probably 50% or more that aren't really available they delayed signing for various reasons like hat shows at all star games or group signing days etc. So in reality it's a much steeper challenge.
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bennyl08

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Re: Impact of Early Signing Period
« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2019, 12:02:23 pm »

Good work 👍 Benny, of course we had to have the absolute worst fall but some of that was related to only 17 spots. However I think the percentage of players available are far too misleading, there is some# of those probably 50% or more that aren't really available they delayed signing for various reasons like hat shows at all star games or group signing days etc. So in reality it's a much steeper challenge.

Hat shows are just as easy to do early as they were later. I'm also not seeing anything preventing a player from playing in an all-star game if they've already signed. There are plenty of group signings early too.

The bigger issue would be how many of those left unsigned are likely to be academically ineligible and have to go the JUCO route.

If the challenge was as steep as suggested, then it wouldn't make sense that 10 of the 13 schools still recruited on par with their normal recruiting. There is less room for error than their otherwise might be, but the hill isn't prohibitively steep.
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woodrow hog call

Re: Impact of Early Signing Period
« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2019, 12:55:34 pm »

I keep reading posts about getting Lane hired and him flipping some commitments from FAU, but I donít know if thatís the level of players that we need. What are the thoughts on on that?
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