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Author Topic: New Stock Idea: TLRD  (Read 268 times)

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rzrbackramsfan

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New Stock Idea: TLRD
« on: November 06, 2019, 11:40:57 am »

TLRD, tailored brands. 

Found them when I was looking through Michael Berryís holdings, these are his second highest holding. 

Dividend yield of 14%, P/E of 4. 

1400 locations made up Jos a banks and Menís Warehouses. 

Suit retailers have a much higher cosutomer service component to it, so more resistance to amazon.

Trading near 52 week lows. 
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 12:27:37 pm by rzrbackramsfan »
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NationalChamps2017

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2019, 12:00:18 pm »

TLRD, tailored brands. 

Found them when I was looking through Michael Berryís holdings, these are his second highest holding. 

Dividend yield of 14%, P/E of 2. 

1400 locations made up Jos a banks and Menís Warehouses. 

Suit retailers have a much higher cosutomer service component to it, so more resistance to amazon.

Trading near 52 week lows.

Retail clothing sector scares me. TLRD has declining revenue and are projecting negative yoy growth for the foreseeable future. However, they have a good name and I really think we start seeing some major acquisitions/mergers in this sector before long. I think the reality has been seen that brick and mortar canít support a large landscape of different types of businesses. Have to become an all in one type of business with in store, online and easily available. Just my opinion though
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2019, 12:29:56 pm »

Retail clothing sector scares me. TLRD has declining revenue and are projecting negative yoy growth for the foreseeable future. However, they have a good name and I really think we start seeing some major acquisitions/mergers in this sector before long. I think the reality has been seen that brick and mortar canít support a large landscape of different types of businesses. Have to become an all in one type of business with in store, online and easily available. Just my opinion though

As it should, but suits are a little different.  I dont think people are so quick to buy those online.  Plus, They had a good 2019 when Amazon is in full effect. 

Their average FCF over the past 5 years is $131 Million, not bad for a Market Cap of $280 million. 
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2019, 09:27:44 pm »

Wow, that is an ugly chart. Not quite JCP but still on the downturn. Definitely a bottom fishing type of expedition and buying here would be a quick trade, for me. My fear with investing here in TLRD is the limited growth of formal business wear/suits these days and the rise of athleisure to takes itís place. LULUís top growth right now is in menís slacks.  Not sure how many of their stores are mall based but outside maybe 150 malls in the country, malls are an endangered species. 

Outside the dividend, I donít have a great thesis for what would move the stock. Maybe a takeover. Maybe a move back to private? Itís such a specialty space that may continue to operate in their niche but they really need fashion trends to cycle back to more formal business attire to get the stock moving.

If I were going to invest in the apparelspacd, Iíd be in LULU, NKE, ROST, BURL, or maybe a KSS on a pull back. Just my take. Good luck.

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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2019, 09:39:52 pm »

Wow, that is an ugly chart. Not quite JCP but still on the downturn. Definitely a bottom fishing type of expedition and buying here would be a quick trade, for me. My fear with investing here in TLRD is the limited growth of formal business wear/suits these days and the rise of athleisure to takes itís place. LULUís top growth right now is in menís slacks.  Not sure how many of their stores are mall based but outside maybe 150 malls in the country, malls are an endangered species. 

Outside the dividend, I donít have a great thesis for what would move the stock. Maybe a takeover. Maybe a move back to private? Itís such a specialty space that may continue to operate in their niche but they really need fashion trends to cycle back to more formal business attire to get the stock moving.

If I were going to invest in the apparelspacd, Iíd be in LULU, NKE, ROST, BURL, or maybe a KSS on a pull back. Just my take. Good luck.

Bro, all you have to do is ask yourself one question:

Can they keep doing what they're doing in sales and profit?  They are have pretty sustainable earnings except for what looks to be a non cash write off of good will but spitting out cash flow.  Why can't they keep it  up?  So if they keep it up, your stock will have returned cash equal to your investment.   Just great value, plus, if that's the case, how much lower can it get?
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ricepig

Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2019, 07:39:05 am »

Bro, all you have to do is ask yourself one question:

Can they keep doing what they're doing in sales and profit?  They are have pretty sustainable earnings except for what looks to be a non cash write off of good will but spitting out cash flow.  Why can't they keep it  up?  So if they keep it up, your stock will have returned cash equal to your investment.   Just great value, plus, if that's the case, how much lower can it get?

How low can it go? Well, based on my experience, it can go to zero! I remember buying sugar in 84 or 85 at $.06/lb, thinking this is the bottom, I road it down to $.03, and my broker called and told me, I was either going to have to get out, roll to another month, or be prepared for a train load of sugar! I did roll to the next month and eventually got back to even, most of my best commodity trades were getting back to even, lol.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2019, 08:44:21 am »

Bro, all you have to do is ask yourself one question:

Can they keep doing what they're doing in sales and profit?  They are have pretty sustainable earnings except for what looks to be a non cash write off of good will but spitting out cash flow.  Why can't they keep it  up?  So if they keep it up, your stock will have returned cash equal to your investment.   Just great value, plus, if that's the case, how much lower can it get?

Good luck with it. I hope it works for you. I do think they can continue to operate fine in their niche. I don't see anything in the stock that is going to propel an inflection point and sustainable momentum.  I don't see institutional money flowing in to move the price. I see a specialty retailer levered to malls at a time where suits are not driving the apparel space growth and malls are really out of favor. Makes me think of JCP and BBBY. No offense.

For those reasons, it's not my cup of tea. But hey, I tend to take a very conservative approach to stocks when communicating here. Namely because I'm not one to hurt someone on what I perceive to be a speculative stock. Sure, it's up to each person to make their own decisions, but I'm still not going to come in here and serve up a heaping pile of something I can't find a thesis for owning.
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2019, 11:37:18 am »

How low can it go? Well, based on my experience, it can go to zero! I remember buying sugar in 84 or 85 at $.06/lb, thinking this is the bottom, I road it down to $.03, and my broker called and told me, I was either going to have to get out, roll to another month, or be prepared for a train load of sugar! I did roll to the next month and eventually got back to even, most of my best commodity trades were getting back to even, lol.

Haha great story. Commodities are different, supply and demand and speculation makes the price.

There are fundamental bottoms for companies where if the price got too low they could be bought out and sold for parts.

TLRD isnít that kind of play, but similar.  It would be odd for a company with no real signs of distress and a long history to just go kapoof and say we canít sell any more suits.
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Karma

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2019, 05:19:29 pm »

TLDR
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2019, 10:29:25 pm »

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onebadrubi

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2019, 06:26:54 am »

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ricepig

Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2019, 06:43:19 am »

They pay good dividends??

Sure, you just glance at the title, give your hot take, and posters on here give you ĎílikesĒ. You canít spend them, but you can get into the 1700 Like club in DSTí1

onebadrubi

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2019, 07:47:47 am »

Sure, you just glance at the title, give your hot take, and posters on here give you ĎílikesĒ. You canít spend them, but you can get into the 1700 Like club in DSTí1

My roboadivisor says to many frauds in DST and stay away. 
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HawgWild

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2019, 09:27:01 am »

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onebadrubi

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2019, 10:04:15 am »

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Biggus Piggus

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2019, 10:32:20 am »

TLRD suspended its dividend beginning with the fourth quarter. It won't have a dividend yield anymore.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2019, 03:22:34 pm »

TLRD suspended its dividend beginning with the fourth quarter. It won't have a dividend yield anymore.

Ouch.
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HawgWild

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2019, 04:18:16 pm »

Found them when I was looking through Michael Berryís holdings, these are his second highest holding.

How current was the info on Berry? I once bought into SD because Leon Cooperman had bought a boat load. It went to zero. Cooperman got out before the bottom. I didn't. Been taking those losses off my taxes for 3 years now. Got a few more to go.
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #18 on: November 09, 2019, 07:15:49 pm »

TLRD suspended its dividend beginning with the fourth quarter. It won't have a dividend yield anymore.

Tough, Iím still buying them.
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2019, 07:16:46 pm »

TLRD suspended its dividend beginning with the fourth quarter. It won't have a dividend yield anymore.

Great find by the way.  I think they have an ok niche and are probably finding real estate opportunities on the cheap they want in on, maybe paying off debt.
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2019, 07:19:17 pm »

How current was the info on Berry? I once bought into SD because Leon Cooperman had bought a boat load. It went to zero. Cooperman got out before the bottom. I didn't. Been taking those losses off my taxes for 3 years now. Got a few more to go.

As of 6/30. 
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2019, 07:22:41 pm »

They pay good dividends??

Apparently they suspended their dividend.  Probably doing so to pay back stock or new stores but before that, when I recommended it first, they had a dividend yield of 15%, but now its about 13%. But they have consistently doubled their dividend in net income. 

I think they fell being brick and mortar but these particular guys are fine and probably will have only some what decks sales going forward, if that
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onebadrubi

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2019, 07:01:33 pm »

Apparently they suspended their dividend.  Probably doing so to pay back stock or new stores but before that, when I recommended it first, they had a dividend yield of 15%, but now its about 13%. But they have consistently doubled their dividend in net income. 

I think they fell being brick and mortar but these particular guys are fine and probably will have only some what decks sales going forward, if that

It was a joke about TLDR=to long didnít read.  Play on words so to say

rzrbackramsfan

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Re: New Stock Idea: TLRD
« Reply #23 on: November 11, 2019, 02:26:06 pm »

I saw my guy Michael Burry increased his stake in TLRD.
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