Hogville Info
• 10,554,816 Posts
• 415,783 Topics
• 23,846 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Pages: [1] 2   Go Down

Author Topic: Auburn -19.5  (Read 2410 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

onebadrubi

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 2049
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 21,117
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Auburn -19.5
« on: October 13, 2019, 08:54:26 pm »

Vegas insider shows auburn opening up at -16.5 favorite. You can get a second mortgage and probably pay off the first one with that line.

kodiakisland

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2019, 08:58:53 pm »

Think it creeps closer to 21 by game time.
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

26.2Hog

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 1375
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 3,827
  • The future ain't what it used to be
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2019, 09:00:11 pm »

Vegas insider shows auburn opening up at -16.5 favorite. You can get a second mortgage and probably pay off the first one with that line.

Someone must be naive enough to think Gus won't run it up on his "friend".
Logged

Hawg_E_Style

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2019, 09:05:15 pm »

And I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see them cover that.

Dont worry. We'll still lose though
Logged

bhogs05

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2019, 09:07:05 pm »

Wow..that is way too low. Not a betting man but that is tempting

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2019, 09:07:15 pm »

Think it creeps closer to 21 by game time.


That would be a huge jump. More likely gets to 17.5.


11am games are tricky for road teams.
Logged

Dropkick

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 271
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 8,266
  • I'm somewhere in the middle
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2019, 09:30:05 pm »

Already up to 18 on site I frequent.
Logged

EastexHawg

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2019, 09:31:59 pm »

It will be worse than that.
Logged

onebadrubi

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 2049
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 21,117
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2019, 09:32:28 pm »


That would be a huge jump. More likely gets to 17.5.


11am games are tricky for road teams.

It will be 20 by Wednesday.  Absolutely will move well
Across the common 17 number plus some. 
Logged

jgphillips3

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 1982
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 13,022
  • Where are they now the little people of Stonehenge
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2019, 09:34:01 pm »

Hell, they’ll cover going away.  That line will have to move well north of 20 to start evening out the money.
Logged

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2019, 09:35:08 pm »

It will be 20 by Wednesday.  Absolutely will move well
Across the common 17 number plus some. 

I'm not saying it's impossible but 3.5 point movement is insane. Would indicate vegas was way off on their initial line.
Logged

widespreadsooie

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2019, 09:36:03 pm »

We've covered the last two games. Don't let your frustration cloud your judgement. With that being said, AUB can probably cover 18 without scoring 30.

Torqued pork

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 462
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 10,522
  • Wait 'til the next life.
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2019, 09:36:26 pm »

Money for the taking unless you don't have the stomach to bet against the Hogs.
Logged

kodiakisland

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2019, 09:38:27 pm »

I'm not saying it's impossible but 3.5 point movement is insane. Would indicate vegas was way off on their initial line.

Which is possible. AR is set to implode. I just can’t see even money below 18.

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2019, 09:39:03 pm »

We've covered the last two games. Don't let your frustration cloud your judgement. With that being said, AUB can probably cover 18 without scoring 30.

This is my thinking. I'm thinking they shut us out or hold to a field goal.

I'm thinking something like 24 0, or 24 3. 

A game where the score is closer than the actual match up.
Logged

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2019, 09:40:19 pm »

I also can see gus wanting to make a statement and we get a 50 to 3, 50 to 10 type game.
Logged

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2019, 09:43:54 pm »

We've covered the last two games. Don't let your frustration cloud your judgement. With that being said, AUB can probably cover 18 without scoring 30.

While last night was a complete embarrassment, most are forgetting Kentucky was a 6 point favorite without even naming a QB.

11 am games are weird and it wouldn't  shock me completely of Auburn wins by 16 or 17.
Logged

HardCore

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Total likes: 461
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2,094
  • Was it good for you too, Leo?
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2019, 09:45:06 pm »

I also can see gus wanting to make a statement and we get a 50 to 3, 50 to 10 type game.

I can hear him laughing now....”Suckers!......They actually listened to me on that whole Morris Joke.”

“Remember David Lee?............Touché!”

Brandon72

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Total likes: 17
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 232
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2019, 09:49:07 pm »

They would have the Hogs -50 if they thought it would generate equal betting on both teams.   The line is not set on what Vegas thinks will be the final margin of victory, but what number will get equal betting action on both teams.   
Logged

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2019, 09:51:10 pm »

They would have the Hogs -50 if they thought it would generate equal betting on both teams.   The line is not set on what Vegas thinks will be the final margin of victory, but what number will get equal betting action on both teams.   

And for the most part it usually ends up being in the ball park.

Fan1958

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Total likes: 418
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2,089
  • The Little Red Hen was obviously a conservative.
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2019, 09:59:44 pm »

Considering the last two games have been an average of 43-12 (and Auburn may be better this year than either of the previous 2), taking Auburn seems like free money.
Logged

Hawgphat

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 750
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6,285
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2019, 10:13:41 pm »

I honestly can't fathom why the line is not at least 49.
Logged

lasthog

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2019, 11:55:12 pm »

I also can see gus wanting to make a statement and we get a 50 to 3, 50 to 10 type game.
What kind of statement could Gus make that is more clear than that being made by CMM?
Logged

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2019, 12:28:39 am »

What kind of statement could Gus make that is more clear than that being made by CMM?


I don't understand your question
Logged

Iwastherein1969

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 889
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 20,619
  • Greatest warriors to ever tred planet Earth
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2019, 01:32:21 am »

Someone must be naive enough to think Gus won't run it up on his "friend".
naïve and Las Vegas only applies to the people who think they can beat the odds makers who keep huge luxurious buildings in a 120 degree desert at a constant 68 degrees and the lights never stop twinkling...you go ahead and try to beat them, I'll sit over here on this log and observe
Logged

jkstock04

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2019, 05:49:38 am »

I don't see us scoring many points against Auburns defense. In fact I can't really picture a scenario where we score a meaningful offensive TD.

With that, I think Auburn can cover this spread quite easily.
Logged

Pennywise

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2019, 08:09:43 am »

I don't see us scoring many points against Auburns defense. In fact I can't really picture a scenario where we score a meaningful offensive TD.

With that, I think Auburn can cover this spread quite easily.

This.

But HV did tell me that the Auburn RB is out so we have a chance to "put it all together on Saturday".
Logged

AF1

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2019, 08:17:52 am »

In fairness, we haven’t been blown out by anyone (yet).
Logged

Pennywise

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2019, 08:19:08 am »

In fairness, we haven’t been blown out by anyone (yet).

Another valid point. Just can't seem to mentally get over the edge.
Logged

jbcarol

Dark Helmet Hog

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 2804
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,712
  • Now let's see how well you handle it...
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #30 on: October 16, 2019, 07:40:42 am »

Gus will name his score in this game. That makes me sick.
Logged

Atlhogfan1

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 2736
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 24,233
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #31 on: October 16, 2019, 08:12:42 am »

Dont trust this line at all.  Something is not right.  Even with all of the reasons why AU might just want to get this game over with and move on to focusing on the trip to LSU, 16.5 doesn't seem high enough. 
Logged

Jules Winnfield

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #32 on: October 16, 2019, 08:13:44 am »

auburn will have 40 by half. people will boo. mass exodus at half.
Logged

007 License To Squeal

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 1610
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 9,346
  • Fmr USAF Combat Crew Titan II Launch Crew Member
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #33 on: October 16, 2019, 08:13:55 am »

Take Auburn......even if it doubles to 30+
Logged

007 License To Squeal

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 1610
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 9,346
  • Fmr USAF Combat Crew Titan II Launch Crew Member
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #34 on: October 16, 2019, 08:16:21 am »

Another valid point. Just can't seem to mentally get over the edge.

We have a deficit in coaching talent.

pigachu

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #35 on: October 16, 2019, 08:21:39 am »

https://www.al.com/auburnfootball/2019/10/auburns-defense-should-cash-betting-ticket-at-arkansas.html


Really good info in there. The thing that stood out is Gus is 5-1 vs the spread when he plays us, and beats it by an average of 12.3 points. Given that info, them coming off a buy, their DL vs. our OL, and the fact that Morris is still our coach, I’m afraid this could get ugly really fast Saturday
Logged

shown006

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Total likes: 31
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 261
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #36 on: October 16, 2019, 08:26:20 am »

Dont trust this line at all.  Something is not right.  Even with all of the reasons why AU might just want to get this game over with and move on to focusing on the trip to LSU, 16.5 doesn't seem high enough.
It's been pushed to 19 @ Bovada and 5Dimes already. 
Logged

justmakeit2thebcs

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2019, 08:27:36 am »

I'm not saying it's impossible but 3.5 point movement is insane. Would indicate vegas was way off on their initial line.
It will be 20 by Wednesday.  Absolutely will move well
Across the common 17 number plus some. 
19.5 Wed Morn.   The initial line of 16.5 wasn't bettable but a a few places and not for very long (circa sports at 11:am Sunday, Westgate a little later Sunday afternoon and some offshores).  Limits are also in play,  $500 tops, 2K if you are regular.  A 2K bet by a regular, followed by another regular will move the line 2 points.   Offshores will follow without any bets.  Limits are softend as the week goes on and the lines settle.
Logged

OkieBack

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2019, 12:46:07 pm »

Gus must be licking his chops.  Makes me sick even thinking about him. 

If I had one wish for Saturday...

--Gus gets way, way overconfident and coaches the worst game of his career
--Arkansas offense moves the ball and actually gets into the end zone multiple times
--Arkansas defense creates 4 turnovers of which all are converted into points
--Auburn loses 5 starters to injury in the game (including QB)
--Hogs win 34 - 28

A fellow can dream can't he?

widespreadsooie

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #39 on: October 16, 2019, 12:59:32 pm »

https://www.al.com/auburnfootball/2019/10/auburns-defense-should-cash-betting-ticket-at-arkansas.html

It's a bit interesting an entire article was written about a sure bet and then the final score prediction is only a two point cover.
Logged

OkieBack

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #40 on: October 16, 2019, 01:33:58 pm »

It's a bit interesting an entire article was written about a sure bet and then the final score prediction is only a two point cover.

Kind of puts it all in perspective.  With the Hogs defense at 58th it is pretty apparent the bulk of the issues fall upon Morris and the offense's inability to get in the end zone. 

Good article. 
Logged

Razor1997

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #41 on: October 16, 2019, 01:44:20 pm »

I honestly can't fathom why the line is not at least 49.

If the line were 49 I'd put money on the Hogs.
Logged

Redhogs

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #42 on: October 16, 2019, 01:45:52 pm »


That would be a huge jump. More likely gets to 17.5.


11am games are tricky for road teams.
Not in Fayetteville.
Logged

Big Nasty 34

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 121
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2,523
  • John 3:16
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #43 on: October 16, 2019, 01:50:27 pm »

I honestly can't fathom why the line is not at least 49.

I truly believe this will be the hogs worst loss of the year points-wise. Unless Nix just implodes and throws about 4 picks, it will get ugly fast I'm afraid :(
Logged

Big Nasty 34

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 121
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2,523
  • John 3:16
Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #44 on: October 16, 2019, 01:52:07 pm »

In fairness, we haven’t been blown out by anyone (yet).

We also haven't played anybody with a winning record...

oldman1015

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #45 on: October 16, 2019, 02:03:16 pm »

18.5
Logged

PorkSoda

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #46 on: October 16, 2019, 02:05:34 pm »

I'm not saying it's impossible but 3.5 point movement is insane. Would indicate vegas was way off on their initial line.
they are.  last 3 match ups auburn won by 31, 32, and 53.

but then again, Vegas doesn't set the line based on what they think will happen, they base is on where they think they can get bets.

In other words, they must think arkansas fans are insane.
Logged

oldman1015

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #47 on: October 16, 2019, 02:28:01 pm »

Happens way more in college than in the NFL.
Logged

rhames

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #48 on: October 16, 2019, 02:34:05 pm »

they are.  last 3 match ups auburn won by 31, 32, and 53.

but then again, Vegas doesn't set the line based on what they think will happen, they base is on where they think they can get bets.

In other words, they must think arkansas fans are insane.


And what were the lines on those games/how far were they off?

The 56-3 beatdown back in 2016 I would suspect was the only one way off.
Logged

PorkSoda

Re: Auburn -16.5
« Reply #49 on: October 16, 2019, 02:41:08 pm »


And what were the lines on those games/how far were they off?

The 56-3 beatdown back in 2016 I would suspect was the only one way off.
27.5 last year, so not far off from the eventual 31 point loss.

do you really think we keep within 3 scores of auburn?  are you trying to get my hopes up, just to dash them on saturday?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas