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Author Topic: I'm starting to think about 70% of our fan base will be Mad if we start winning  (Read 2877 times)

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I just do not get how people ignore this point. If other teams consistently get players that are better than your players, then they are going to consistently be better than you. Yes, upsets happen, teams have bad days, a bad bounce happens. However, counting on those things can not be your strategy to win. In no SEC game this year will the Hogs have, as a team, the better talented roster. Also, it's matchups. It does not matter if my wr's are better than yours. It matters if my wr's are better than your db's. It matters if your DL is better than my OL.

You are in the wrong place.
Do not ever try to use logic here.
Facts will not penetrate the dense layer of hardened irrational opinions
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Pork Twain


I just do not get how people ignore this point. If other teams consistently get players that are better than your players, then they are going to consistently be better than you. Yes, upsets happen, teams have bad days, a bad bounce happens. However, counting on those things can not be your strategy to win. In no SEC game this year will the Hogs have, as a team, the better talented roster. Also, it's matchups. It does not matter if my wr's are better than yours. It matters if my wr's are better than your db's. It matters if your DL is better than my OL.

People that ignore this, me included, realize that outside of the top 3-4 teams in all of the SEC, not a lot really separates 5-10 in actual rankings.

Now while I have never been a recruit evaluator, I was in the Air Force for 21 years (I know you are tired of hearing about it but I think the process applies here) and throughout that time we had a much more codified performance evaluation system and I saw firsthand how flawed a system like that could be, while based on much more than the eye test.  My last job was a super and part of my job was to review past performance reports to see whether or not we would accept applicant A vs applicant B.  I would see dirtbags rated high and solid citizens rated low.  Now if you take that and apply it to recruiting, you have to wonder about the level of accuracy when it comes to comparing a low 5 to a high 4 and a low 4 to a high 3 and they have similar ht/wt/40 and tapes.  I am in no way saying these guys do not know what they are talking about, obviously they do.  I am merely questioning the actual quantifiable difference in those instances.  Lucky for us, we actually have a couple of guys on here that have been a part of that application.

I do have a hard time with some of these recruits, because the difference between a high 4 and a low 5 or a high 3 and a low 4 can be down to the 10th of a decimal and these ratings are based off of an eye test performed by an "expert", no offense Otis.  Is that really that much difference?  Then you take those and spread them over an entire class and the difference can look much greater than it actually is.  That difference is not as significant when comparing the top class to the bottom class, because the difference is clear, but as you get towards the middle, say 4-12 (or 4-10 before the additions of aTm and Mizzou), the teams are separated by very little.  Especially when you divide that difference over a class of ~25 kids.

Everyone makes a big deal about finishing 10th in the SEC, but there is not that much difference between 10th and 4th.

Average Difference between the 4th and 12th (4th and 10th before aTm and Mizzou) place SEC class (divide the numbers below by the average numbers of players signed by those teams and the difference shrinks)
2018    4.56/25 players = .1824 difference per player
2017    5.01/25 players = .2004 difference per player  (you get the jist of it)
2016    3.34
2015    3.35
2014    5.19
2013    4.88
2012    5.52
2011    4.98
2010    5.73
2009    5.27
2008    6.29
2007    8.14   
2006    8.62
2005    9.47

All this is significant when the recruiting services are only using whole numbers on their scale.

From 24/7
110 - 101 = Franchise Player. One of the best players to come along in years, if not decades. Odds of having a player in this category every year is slim. This prospect has "can’t miss" talent.

100 - 98 = Five-star prospect. One of the top 30 players in the nation. This player has excellent pro-potential and should emerge as one of the best in the country before the end of his career. There will be 32 prospects ranked in this range in every football class to mirror the first round of the NFL Draft.

97 - 90 = Four-star prospect. One of the top 300 players in the nation. This prospect will be an impact-player for his college team. He is an All-American candidate who is projected to play professionally.

89 - 80 = Three-star prospect. One of the top 10% players in the nation. This player will develop into a reliable starter for his college team and is among the best players in his region of the country. Many three-stars have significant pro potential.

79 - below = Two-star prospect. This player makes up the bulk of Division I rosters. He may have little pro-potential, but is likely to become a role player for his respective school.

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hogsanity

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Well to be fair that is how they did it at Clemson . In the beginning they were just better at finding the three star players that they could teach and develop into bad asses.

1. The ACC isnt, top to bottom, the SEC. 2. Clemson has much better in state talent, and is much closer to places like ATL.

I still can not fathom how people, not saying you, think Arkansas is ever going to recruit well enough to CONSISTENTLY win here. In state talent is still vital to even the top level programs. Where would Bama be without in state kids? LSu? Even Om and Miss St?

And before anyone brings up OU, OU is 190 miles from DFW, Fay is 336, AND OU is in, and OU has been a huge presence in North Texas for decades, but even OU would be less than they are without getting kids from OKC and Tulsa areas.

CoastalHawg


So you are semi retired?
Are you now a consultant for an SEC team?
Not at the moment but I’m open to working with Morris and Craddock if they are ready to accept some constructive criticism. Is that you Hunter?
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Al Boarland

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Well to be fair that is how they did it at Clemson . In the beginning they were just better at finding the three star players that they could teach and develop into bad asses.

They had and still have a significant more forgiving schedule.
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Dropkick

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I don't think "mythical" 70% has anything to worry about anytime soon.
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Oda Hamunaga


1. The ACC isnt, top to bottom, the SEC. 2. Clemson has much better in state talent, and is much closer to places like ATL.

I still can not fathom how people, not saying you, think Arkansas is ever going to recruit well enough to CONSISTENTLY win here. In state talent is still vital to even the top level programs. Where would Bama be without in state kids? LSu? Even Om and Miss St?

And before anyone brings up OU, OU is 190 miles from DFW, Fay is 336, AND OU is in, and OU has been a huge presence in North Texas for decades, but even OU would be less than they are without getting kids from OKC and Tulsa areas.

Well what I alluded to in my post is that the only way we can win consistently in Arkansas is by doing it the way Clemson started. Finding the diamond in the rough three stars and developing the hell out of them. It’s how Kentucky has turned their program around. So in that sense I’m glad we have Chad because he has been a part of doing it like that before.

Al Boarland

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People that ignore this, me included, realize that outside of the top 3-4 teams in all of the SEC, not a lot really separates 5-10 in actual rankings.

We aren't 5-10. We are 20-30.

hogsanity

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People that ignore this, me included, realize that outside of the top 3-4 teams in all of the SEC, not a lot really separates 5-10 in actual rankings.


I do not need to look at rankings, I can look at the players. old misses, while not a good team, was bigger, faster, stronger. Hog wr's could not get off the line against their db's. Hog Ol could not handle their dl. Hog db's could not stop om wr's from getting inside.

This idea that " you just coach em up " has been fabricated to soothe the burn from the fact that the better players do not want to come play here. So fans say things like " fine, we only want players that want to be Hogs anyway!". The " coach me up " mantra really means " we know your players are better ".

Its like the game I am working Friday night. I know, unless several weird things happen, it will be a mercy rule. I have seen both teams play, and one team just has better players and more of them.

avatar


Pointing out the obvious mistakes and failures of the coaching staff is not the same as wanting said coaching staff to fail.

I prefer to think of it as fans holding this coaching staff accountable to ensure they do their job. When the coaching staff fails to do their job, fans respond by not showing up for games.
Normally I enjoy your perspective but this one is hilarious.
You are going to say that a bunch of people on a message board are qualified to know
whether the coaches are doing their job.

BWAHAHAHA.
This is HV you are kidding right?

The only barometer available is w/l
Morris said it would take time. Nobody listened. (well I did)
There are other barometers which people do not want to acknowledge

I am not going to reiterate  all that he had to deal with nor
am I going to reiterate all the positive things he has done.

I will simply get back on track here and say there are people who don't
know what they are talking about that want Morris to fail.

avatar


Not at the moment but I’m open to working with Morris and Craddock if they are ready to accept some constructive criticism. Is that you Hunter?
What I have found in my line of work that when its busy
and there is demand good people are working
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Dropkick

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I was against the hire. I like the guy but I still don't think he is "the guy". But other than I told you so I would like to be able to say, man I was wrong about Morris he is the real deal!

In my opinion it would be ludicrous to fire him in less than 3 years. He has to have more than these last 14 games under his belt here before we know what we have.

Not sure what percentile this puts me in.
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hogsanity

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. I like the guy but I still don't think he is "the guy".



Just who is " the guy "? " The guy " that is going to convince top notch SEC calibre players to come here, in sufficient numbers, to CONSISTENTLY win 8+ games a year? " the guy ' who is going to finally have the guts to say " Man, Ar HS football sucks, there are not more than 3 or 4 players a year that come out of this state that belong in the SEC. " The guy " that is going to go out year after year and get 18-20 player from out of state that are at least as good as what teams like om, A&M, SC, and Aub are getting? Because that is what it is going to take just to win 7 or 8 games ever year.

Personally, in the current college football world, I do not think that guy exists.

a shady hog


Just reading through posts and at least 2/3 want the Hog's and Morris to fail . He isn't their guy or something , but to cheer against him Doesn't look good for our fan base. 2/3's of the posts on here are totally negative . We knew coming in that CBB left a crap pile but now these same fans are whining . Jones will fill the spot at center next year allowing Clary to move to guard and Cunningham to Tackle . Gatlin's return also helps at the other tackle and Stromberg looks like the steal i thought he was going to be . A fair trade with Oklahoma when they got wilkins . We all hoped to be farther ahead than we are but losing those O-line guys to all sorts of injuries was a set back

Just remember that the majority of Razorback fans don't post on Hogville or call into radio shows.
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Muleriderhog

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Now here it is.
This is the cognitive dissonance that disguises the fact that
there are people who want the Razorbacks to lose.

The first thing you say is you want him fired.
Well duh if the Razorbacks win then we are then talking about
fired for crashing a motorcycle with a young woman not his wife and then
lying and trying to cover it up.

Ya know for cause.
I don't think that is going to happen so to get your
highly desired result the Razorbacks would have to lose.

I know logic is hard but maybe if you tried using rational thought instead
of emotional reactions things might look differently.

I  have no expectations of such an outcome but I do thank you
for actually making the OP"s point.

Btw here is the definition of cognitive dissonance.

cog·ni·tive dis·so·nance
nounPSYCHOLOGY
the state of having inconsistent thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes, especially as relating to behavioral decisions and attitude change.
Completely misinterpreting what I said and putting words in my mouth.

hogsanity

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Just remember that the majority of Razorback fans don't post on Hogville or call into radio shows.

True, a majority of Razorback fans go/watch the games then get on with their lives, the outcome does not impact how they live. They do not derive their self worth from the actions of 18-22 year olds on 12 Saturdays every fall.

Redhogs


I'll give you some facts.

1. 1-11 against FBS schools with losses to a 3-9 Colo St and N Texas
2. 14-22 record at SMU (make all the excuses you want, I have heard them all)
3. Horrible record of developing players, compare recruiting rankings to All conference teams. (yeah, I know who Courtland Sutton an Trey Quinn are)
4. Turnarounds don't take years with consitent top 30 recruiting classes which the Hogs have had.  2019 Maryland & UNC are doing it with much less.
5. Arkansas' player experience is above average, expecially compared to Ole Miss.
6. Our offensive coaching experienceant the FBS is the lowest in all of football and they are trying to get it done in the SEC West. Not one of the offensive coaches has anything even close to an overll winning record as a college coach.  Only two have ever been part of a team that has won 8 gmaes in a single year.   Stepp in his first year at App St and  Lunney in 2015. 
& Morris had seen Starkel and Hicks all summer.  What everyone saw at Ole Miss was not an anomaly, it's been that way everyday in practice.  Yet, Morris put it in the right lane and put his hazard lights on.   

You hear BS and negativity, I hear nothing but excuses.   
Good factual post..BTW...I was 100% supportive of Morris until the OM game, very disappointing on so many levels.
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Pennywise


Our fan base will always have inner anger issues that stem from struggling with what we WANT to be vs what we ACTUALLY are. It won’t matter if we win or lose, there will be belly aching about games whether we lose by 1 or win by 101.
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Oda Hamunaga


Our fan base will always have inner anger issues that stem from struggling with what we WANT to be vs what we ACTUALLY are. It won’t matter if we win or lose, there will be belly aching about games whether we lose by 1 or win by 101.

Lol, do you really believe this? Just asking

CoastalHawg


What I have found in my line of work that when its busy
and there is demand good people are working
Same, and if you work your tail off and are smart with your money you can move to the coast, scale back and fish more.
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Pennywise


Lol, do you really believe this? Just asking

Yes. We won game 1. While it wasn’t sexy or a blowout. We won. Immediately following here come the angry already calling coach Morris’s head.

Been on here long enough that when we win games, the belly aching occurs because we did not pass enough, run enough, should have put the 4th string stud quarterback in to see what he can do and so on.

The fan base poisons it’s own through its own toxins.

CoastalHawg


I'll give you some facts.

1. 1-11 against FBS schools with losses to a 3-9 Colo St and N Texas
2. 14-22 record at SMU (make all the excuses you want, I have heard them all)
3. Horrible record of developing players, compare recruiting rankings to All conference teams. (yeah, I know who Courtland Sutton an Trey Quinn are)
4. Turnarounds don't take years with consitent top 30 recruiting classes which the Hogs have had.  2019 Maryland & UNC are doing it with much less.
5. Arkansas' player experience is above average, expecially compared to Ole Miss.
6. Our offensive coaching experienceant the FBS is the lowest in all of football and they are trying to get it done in the SEC West. Not one of the offensive coaches has anything even close to an overll winning record as a college coach.  Only two have ever been part of a team that has won 8 gmaes in a single year.   Stepp in his first year at App St and  Lunney in 2015. 
& Morris had seen Starkel and Hicks all summer.  What everyone saw at Ole Miss was not an anomaly, it's been that way everyday in practice.  Yet, Morris put it in the right lane and put his hazard lights on.   

You hear BS and negativity, I hear nothing but excuses.   

Good post.

Oda Hamunaga


Yes. We won game 1. While it wasn’t sexy or a blowout. We won. Immediately following here come the angry already calling coach Morris’s head.

Been on here long enough that when we win games, the belly aching occurs because we did not pass enough, run enough, should have put the 4th string stud quarterback in to see what he can do and so on.

The fan base poisons it’s own through its own toxins.


Right, so the “fan base will belly ache if we win by 101”

Ok. I think this probably ends my replys
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Großer Kriegschwein

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Just reading through posts and at least 2/3 want the Hog's and Morris to fail . He isn't their guy or something , but to cheer against him Doesn't look good for our fan base. 2/3's of the posts on here are totally negative . We knew coming in that CBB left a crap pile but now these same fans are whining . Jones will fill the spot at center next year allowing Clary to move to guard and Cunningham to Tackle . Gatlin's return also helps at the other tackle and Stromberg looks like the steal i thought he was going to be . A fair trade with Oklahoma when they got wilkins . We all hoped to be farther ahead than we are but losing those O-line guys to all sorts of injuries was a set back

Nope...

I'd absolutely dig it.

I don't care who the head coach is as long as the players are performing up to their peak potential.

It's when they aren't and there are few indications of them getting there that I'm fairly venomous to the coaching staff.

je100


I just do not get how people ignore this point. If other teams consistently get players that are better than your players, then they are going to consistently be better than you. Yes, upsets happen, teams have bad days, a bad bounce happens. However, counting on those things can not be your strategy to win. In no SEC game this year will the Hogs have, as a team, the better talented roster. Also, it's matchups. It does not matter if my wr's are better than yours. It matters if my wr's are better than your db's. It matters if your DL is better than my OL.



But surely we can deserve this once-in-a-generation coach, who coincidentally longs to be in this recruiting purgatory, who can out-coach 3/4ths of the SEC coaches on a yearly basis for decades to come, to make up for this lack of talent? 
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d3maybe

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Just reading through posts and at least 2/3 want the Hog's and Morris to fail . He isn't their guy or something , but to cheer against him Doesn't look good for our fan base. 2/3's of the posts on here are totally negative . We knew coming in that CBB left a crap pile but now these same fans are whining . Jones will fill the spot at center next year allowing Clary to move to guard and Cunningham to Tackle . Gatlin's return also helps at the other tackle and Stromberg looks like the steal i thought he was going to be . A fair trade with Oklahoma when they got wilkins . We all hoped to be farther ahead than we are but losing those O-line guys to all sorts of injuries was a set back

Nah, you'd be surprised how fast folks around here jump bandwagons...

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Same, and if you work your tail off and are smart with your money you can move to the coast, scale back and fish more.
And wait for an SEC program to hire you off of Hogville.
I think you have a better chance of getting hit by a hurricane
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Nope...

I'd absolutely dig it.

I don't care who the head coach is as long as the players are performing up to their peak potential.

It's when they aren't and there are few indications of them getting there that I'm fairly venomous to the coaching staff.
Fascinating.
I get the venom part. the part I am having a little trouble getting
is just how do you know that these players are NOT playing at THEIR peak?
I am sure that freshman DE with the broken hand wasn't at his peak.
I guess we should spit some venom at the coaches for that

Are you at practice?
Who do you see quitting?
Just asking for a friend I'll hang up.
Probably won't be back for the response, I am not feeling up to my peak today
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Pork Twain


We aren't 5-10. We are 20-30.
We are not 20-30 in the SEC...read, then reply...  My post specifically looks at our SEC standing

code red

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Can you quote a post where someone has rooted against him or the Razorbacks and post it in this thread?
Agreed in addition.  What the heck have we seen that would indicate to anyone.  That this team will start "winning"?
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code red

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I'll give you some facts.

1. 1-11 against FBS schools with losses to a 3-9 Colo St and N Texas
2. 14-22 record at SMU (make all the excuses you want, I have heard them all)
3. Horrible record of developing players, compare recruiting rankings to All conference teams. (yeah, I know who Courtland Sutton an Trey Quinn are)
4. Turnarounds don't take years with consitent top 30 recruiting classes which the Hogs have had.  2019 Maryland & UNC are doing it with much less.
5. Arkansas' player experience is above average, expecially compared to Ole Miss.
6. Our offensive coaching experienceant the FBS is the lowest in all of football and they are trying to get it done in the SEC West. Not one of the offensive coaches has anything even close to an overll winning record as a college coach.  Only two have ever been part of a team that has won 8 gmaes in a single year.   Stepp in his first year at App St and  Lunney in 2015. 
& Morris had seen Starkel and Hicks all summer.  What everyone saw at Ole Miss was not an anomaly, it's been that way everyday in practice.  Yet, Morris put it in the right lane and put his hazard lights on.   

You hear BS and negativity, I hear nothing but excuses.   

This is awesome....keep it coming. 

Hawginj


Fascinating.
I get the venom part. the part I am having a little trouble getting
is just how do you know that these players are NOT playing at THEIR peak?
I am sure that freshman DE with the broken hand wasn't at his peak.
I guess we should spit some venom at the coaches for that

Are you at practice?
Who do you see quitting?
Just asking for a friend I'll hang up.
Probably won't be back for the response, I am not feeling up to my peak today
facts tells us Arkansas is a P5 SEC school. Common sense tells us that by those facts alone the caliber of athletes that are recruited into the program are better than the teams we are loosing to or barely beating. By the product we see on the field one can confidently see that this team is not playing at peak efficiency.

Al Boarland

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Agreed in addition.  What the heck have we seen that would indicate to anyone.  That this team will start "winning"?

Starkel completed a few passes at the end of a game.
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Großer Kriegschwein

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facts tells us Arkansas is a P5 SEC school. Common sense tells us that by those facts alone the caliber of athletes that are recruited into the program are better than the teams we are loosing to or barely beating. By the product we see on the field one can confidently see that this team is not playing at peak efficiency.

1st Half against Ole Miss= Not even close to peak efficiency

2nd Half against Ole Miss= Closer

However, if they increased that much over a 20 minute halftime period it's not a stretch to say that they could get much better than what we saw.
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Hawginj


1st Half against Ole Miss= Not even close to peak efficiency

2nd Half against Ole Miss= Closer

However, if they increased that much over a 20 minute halftime period it's not a stretch to say that they could get much better than what we saw.
I don't disagree looked much better in the second half. Play calling was still pedestrian at best but execution was worlds better. Sad it didn't equate into points but hopefully this week it will
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Großer Kriegschwein

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I don't disagree looked much better in the second half. Play calling was still pedestrian at best but execution was worlds better. Sad it didn't equate into points but hopefully this week it will

There's a few things they need to shore up if the increased efficiency is going to relate to points on the board.

Was the same way with Bielema and his woes at aTm.
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SkylerKat


Had to think through my feelings on this.

Here's the thing. If he's going to fail, I'd rather he fail sooner than later so we can get rid of him and move on to a better coach.

I won't go into why I never liked him. That's a topic more fit for last year.
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hawg1221


The Pig Trail had Ty Clary's mom on for a segment. One thing she said was that she visited a Razorback blog one time and no more afterwards. She said she couldn't handle it. People are pretty rough on these blogs. It's not for the light hearted.
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rhames


Good factual post..BTW...I was 100% supportive of Morris until the OM game, very disappointing on so many levels.


I wasn't happy with the Ole Miss performance, however why was it that game for you? A game we were, outside of this message board, supposed to lose?

I think you have to at least let him get to the Kentucky game, see how they play, before you make up your mind.

wildturkey8


I believe the OP is right, some would be mad because they don't like the coach and many others would be mad because winning would invalidate their argument that Arkansas can't compete.

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Just reading through posts and at least 2/3 want the Hog's and Morris to fail . He isn't their guy or something , but to cheer against him Doesn't look good for our fan base. 2/3's of the posts on here are totally negative . We knew coming in that CBB left a crap pile but now these same fans are whining . Jones will fill the spot at center next year allowing Clary to move to guard and Cunningham to Tackle . Gatlin's return also helps at the other tackle and Stromberg looks like the steal i thought he was going to be . A fair trade with Oklahoma when they got wilkins . We all hoped to be farther ahead than we are but losing those O-line guys to all sorts of injuries was a set back

I suggested that some (not 70%) of our fans wanted Mike Anderson to lose last year so that he would be fired and I was told I was crazy. 

You're probably right. Don't know if the number is that high or not.

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You're not getting a lot of support for your opinion so far and I disagree with the percentage, but I do think you are right that there are some who want him to fail and fail soon so that they can hope to get their guy in here.  What they don't understand is that they may not get their guy, there will be another culture change, the same players will be here at O-Line and the other positions.  Plus, the new coach will have to recruit themselves out of this situation.  From what I've seen, I have little doubt that some who come to this board want the coach to fail.
I want this coach and coaching staff to succeed
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Fox 16 Arkansas