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Author Topic: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.  (Read 8108 times)

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Cotton

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Re: Vegas has spoken.
« Reply #150 on: August 13, 2019, 09:46:43 am »

I'll take the under... its a win/win.

Either I win money, or the Hogs win more games and I'm happy either way. Fool Proof.

oldman1015

Re: Vegas has spoken.
« Reply #151 on: August 13, 2019, 09:56:53 am »

So is Vegas predicting we win 5 games, or is Vegas throwing out 5 games as their number to get people to bet?
Their goal id to set the # just like a point spread to get the same amount bet on both sides. They have zero risk and make the 10% juice.
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Shorttimer

Re: Vegas has spoken.
« Reply #152 on: August 13, 2019, 10:00:09 am »

Either 5 or 6 seems like an odd spot to land.  I think 5.5 is the number that makes sense.  Unless they're moving the line back and forth to gin up some action on both sides.  Seems like there might be a lot of push money at either 5 or 6.
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a0ashle

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Re: Vegas has spoken.
« Reply #153 on: August 13, 2019, 11:16:04 am »

Either 5 or 6 seems like an odd spot to land.  I think 5.5 is the number that makes sense.  Unless they're moving the line back and forth to gin up some action on both sides.  Seems like there might be a lot of push money at either 5 or 6.

Good point, must have been too much at 5 when they went 5.5, o/u at 5 (meaning your betting 4 wins or 6 wins) seems primed to draw the over. Has the payouts changed on either side?
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Backcountryhog

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #154 on: August 13, 2019, 11:17:53 am »

Vegas doesn’t always get it right folks. They had us at 5 1/2 wins last year. This team will win 6 games this season. We’re not gonna set the world on fire, but the roster is in far better shape than this time last year.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Vegas has spoken.
« Reply #155 on: August 13, 2019, 12:17:20 pm »

Their goal id to set the # just like a point spread to get the same amount bet on both sides. They have zero risk and make the 10% juice.

I know, but guys like Grizzly seem to think Vegas saying 5 games is Vegas' prediction for our season.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Vegas has spoken.
« Reply #156 on: August 13, 2019, 12:22:36 pm »

One thing's for certain.  Most posters who would be satisfied with 5 wins today, won't be satisfied with 7 losses at the end of the year.  It may seem like progress today, but it will feel like a failure in December.

It depends if a 7th loss is one like we should have won, like ole miss or CSU
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PorkSoda

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #157 on: August 13, 2019, 02:44:16 pm »

It depends if a 7th loss is one like we should have won, like ole miss or CSU
lord I hope we don't have 7 losses by the time we play ole miss
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jbcarol

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onebadrubi

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onebadrubi

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #160 on: August 22, 2019, 09:01:13 pm »

lord I hope we don't have 7 losses by the time we play ole miss

Ok wording not great, but you get what Im saying. 
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Hawgphat

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #161 on: August 22, 2019, 09:12:29 pm »

For those of you who are inclined to put substantial dollars down in wagering on the Hogs, - - - I truly wish you well. 

As for me, - - I may be hopeful that the enterprising woodcutter can safely make his homeward bound trip back across the frozen Arkansas River with his wagon load of firewood as the sun is going down; - - - but I won't invest in that particular venture of his entrepreneurship, and I won't sign on as his labor hand to make the trip with him.

"Faith" is a wonderful commodity.  - - - - - "Reckless folly" is not.


                                                                               ::)
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Madface Magician

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #162 on: August 22, 2019, 09:15:25 pm »

Grab the under,  Will get by Portugal State.....Ole Miss will tell us all how the season goes 😬
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #163 on: August 22, 2019, 09:21:13 pm »

For those of you who are inclined to put substantial dollars down in wagering on the Hogs, - - - I truly wish you well. 

As for me, - - I may be hopeful that the enterprising woodcutter can safely make his homeward bound trip back across the frozen Arkansas River with his wagon load of firewood as the sun is going down; - - - but I won't invest in that particular venture of his entrepreneurship, and I won't sign on as his labor hand to make the trip with him.

"Faith" is a wonderful commodity.  - - - - - "Reckless folly" is not.


                                                                               ::)

The woodcutter is known to "lose" winning tickets, I get it. That thief. 
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LZH

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #164 on: August 23, 2019, 05:07:11 am »

Sounds like birth.

Been to the casino with this cat........he doesn't win by accident.
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jkstock04

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #165 on: August 23, 2019, 06:19:54 am »

I know, but guys like Grizzly seem to think Vegas saying 5 games is Vegas' prediction for our season.
Sure seems to me like when I gamble on anything sports related whatever it may be (spreads or totals) it comes down to the wire come nutt cutting time. Can only speak for myself but at least 90% of the time...sure seems like where they set it, it's usually close come the conclusion. Whatever edge you think you had is usually a coin flip by the time the fat lady sings.

So... looking at it from a gamblers perspective you could actually say them putting us at 5 is a prediction of sorts.

For the homers who think 6 plus games is inevitable this is a bargain for you. You are getting plus juice on the over 5 or 5.5 all day every day right now.
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oldman1015

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #166 on: August 23, 2019, 08:08:21 am »

Sure seems to me like when I gamble on anything sports related whatever it may be (spreads or totals) it comes down to the wire come nutt cutting time. Can only speak for myself but at least 90% of the time...sure seems like where they set it, it's usually close come the conclusion. Whatever edge you think you had is usually a coin flip by the time the fat lady sings.

So... looking at it from a gamblers perspective you could actually say them putting us at 5 is a prediction of sorts.

For the homers who think 6 plus games is inevitable this is a bargain for you. You are getting plus juice on the over 5 or 5.5 all day every day right now.
Pretty safe bet it will be 4,5,or 6 with your logic and I don't disagree.
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NWAlwyer

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #167 on: August 23, 2019, 06:20:50 pm »

MS St. has only won more than 8 regular season (excluding bowl games as Vegas win totals exclude bowl games) games one time this millennium. Dak Prescott was the QB then. You absolutely may be correct in your research but history isn't on your side, and MS St. has seen better talent on campus than they'll have next season.

A team's history and last season's performance means nothing in predicting wins for an upcoming seas . . . Just ask 75% of people on this forum. 
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #168 on: August 23, 2019, 07:16:11 pm »

Sure seems to me like when I gamble on anything sports related whatever it may be (spreads or totals) it comes down to the wire come nutt cutting time. Can only speak for myself but at least 90% of the time...sure seems like where they set it, it's usually close come the conclusion. Whatever edge you think you had is usually a coin flip by the time the fat lady sings.

So... looking at it from a gamblers perspective you could actually say them putting us at 5 is a prediction of sorts.

For the homers who think 6 plus games is inevitable this is a bargain for you. You are getting plus juice on the over 5 or 5.5 all day every day right now.

I agree that predicting 7 or 8 wins is being a Homer but a 6 win prediction is just being cautiously optimistic.
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Hawgphat

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #169 on: August 23, 2019, 07:30:09 pm »

A team's history and last season's performance means nothing in predicting wins for an upcoming seas . . . Just ask 75% of people on this forum.

I would opine that WHO'S pertinent history is being referenced and assessed, - - and just how consistent that history has been of late - - should be factored into the speculative prognostication equation.  Projections pertaining to Alabama and Clemson may prompt a bit more reliable conjecture than those centering around Slippery Rock College, Panhandle State or Yoo Hoo U.          (Or Arkansas).        :-[

GuvHog

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #170 on: August 23, 2019, 07:33:17 pm »

I would opine that WHO'S pertinent history is being referenced and assessed, - - and just how consistent that history has been of late - - should be factored into the speculative prognostication equation.  Projections pertaining to Alabama and Clemson may prompt a bit more reliable conjecture than those centering around Slippery Rock College, Panhandle State or Yoo Hoo U.          (Or Arkansas).        :-[

When it comes to Arkansas, I disagree with you. This is not the same team as last year so last year is irrelevant.
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Hawgphat

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #171 on: August 23, 2019, 07:42:49 pm »

When it comes to Arkansas, I disagree with you. This is not the same team as last year so last year is irrelevant.

I presumed to reflect the general sentiment of the college football world; not our program in specificity.  Knowledgeable college football fans feel MUCH more confident in predicting the pending success ratios for Alabama and Clemson than they do for programs in a position similar to that of Arkansas.

That's not an exercise in disloyalty.  I well understand that this season portends to be a far different scenario than was last season.  However, many other college football aficionados - - outside of our program - - likely don't know that, - - - and - - equally as likely - - don't care.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #172 on: August 23, 2019, 08:40:02 pm »

A team's history and last season's performance means nothing in predicting wins for an upcoming seas . . . Just ask 75% of people on this forum. 

Right now their recruiting may be a bit above average for the given time span but it took a legend type QB for them to eclipse eight wins. Tommy Stevens may be a top 5-10 SEC QB of all time, maybe Moorhead can coach on Dan Mullen's level, but that's a tough sell.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #173 on: August 26, 2019, 10:59:59 am »

So is Vegas predicting we win 5 games, or is Vegas throwing out 5 games as their number to get people to bet?

Vegas and every other oddsmaker and local Bookie have one goal.  Even split of money wagered on both sides of every sports bet.

Example.  Where I live DFW.  If the cowboys are -3 in Vegas they will likely be -3 in Toledo, Youngstown, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Jersey, NY. Hotbeds for local bookies.  Local bookies in DFW will open with the line of -3.  Within an hour it will be -3.5.  But kickoff it may locally be -6 to -7.5.  Certain fan bases like the cows will bet them no matter what kind of ridiculous line you throw at them. 

Even in Vegas a Cowboy line will start a point or 2 off what it should be because of all the knuckle heads.
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MissippHog

Re: Vegas lines for Razorback football regular season win total.
« Reply #174 on: August 26, 2019, 11:15:55 am »

They (local MSU fans) are definitely expecting big things and it will be interesting to watch it play out.
They do every.single.year.  I expect MSU to start trending back to their norm and I would be surprised if they reached 8 wins.
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