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Author Topic: Anybody worried about the US economy?  (Read 1146 times)

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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #50 on: July 15, 2019, 04:50:57 pm »

If we do not have a recession within the next 18 months, it will require all of my models to fail for the first time. Not that it's impossible. It is conceivable that the relationship between employment/unemployment and economic activity could break.

On the other hand, we should be well into the phase in which hiring brings in lower and lower-quality hires and overpays them, thus building excesses into the economy.
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #51 on: July 15, 2019, 05:00:13 pm »

Very plausible to have a mild recession in 18 months, not really earth shattering prognostication.
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HotlantaHog

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #52 on: July 16, 2019, 02:57:59 pm »

Atlanta Fed GDP tracker is now projecting 1.6% for the second quarter after the positive retail sales surprise today.

It's also boosting estimates for the third quarter -- Macroeconomic Advisers is at 2.1% for the third quarter...

If we get a recession soon, it doesn't look like it has started yet... GDP estimates should not be super robust in the last three quarters of 2019 because we are working off an inventory hangover, but things don't look bad right now.
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ricepig

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woodrow hog call

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #54 on: July 16, 2019, 04:43:48 pm »

https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/economics/index.aspx


I'm thinking about taking this part straight to the politics forum and messing with them libs;

" Nearly all the month's weakness was from to utilities, which fell 3.6% due to milder-than-usual temperatures in June that reduced the demand for air conditioning.  (It was the coolest June for the contiguous 48 states since 2009.)  Aside from that series, gains were broad-based.  Auto manufacturing rose 2.9% in June following a similarly strong gain of 2.2% in May.  Meanwhile, manufacturing outside the auto sector (which represents the majority of activity) rose 0.2%.  Putting the two series together shows overall manufacturing rose 0.4% in June.  Even though non-auto manufacturing is only up a tepid 0.2% in the past year, the various capital goods production indices continue to outperform the broader index. "
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #55 on: July 16, 2019, 04:49:38 pm »


I'm thinking about taking this part straight to the politics forum and messing with them libs;

" Nearly all the month's weakness was from to utilities, which fell 3.6% due to milder-than-usual temperatures in June that reduced the demand for air conditioning.  (It was the coolest June for the contiguous 48 states since 2009.)  Aside from that series, gains were broad-based.  Auto manufacturing rose 2.9% in June following a similarly strong gain of 2.2% in May.  Meanwhile, manufacturing outside the auto sector (which represents the majority of activity) rose 0.2%.  Putting the two series together shows overall manufacturing rose 0.4% in June.  Even though non-auto manufacturing is only up a tepid 0.2% in the past year, the various capital goods production indices continue to outperform the broader index. "

You’d make Bawb melt, lol.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #56 on: July 16, 2019, 05:41:01 pm »

It was so cool because it rained so darned much. Sheesh. Jan-June sucked.

Two highly predictive factors don't look so hot right now -- industrial capacity utilization and housing starts.

Housing starts have been in a sluggish trend for the past year. Capacity utilization has been in a downtrend for the past six months. These two are highly predictive of labor market activity 3-6 months out. We're not in recession territory (except for industrial production, which declined in each of the past two quarters), but the signals say labor demand will soften.
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #57 on: July 18, 2019, 04:45:04 pm »

The Philadelphia Fed saw its primary gauge measuring the sector jump from 0.3 in June to 21.8, far better than Wall Street estimates of 5 and the highest in a year. The index measures the difference between companies saying they are expanding activity against those expecting to reduce.
Nearly every indicator within the index rose sharply: Employment doubled to 30, its highest reading since October 2017, while the average workweek more than tripled to 23, its best in 14 months. Shipments jumped to 24.9 from 16.6 in June, while new orders surged to 18.9 from 8.3. Prices paid, a key measure of inflationary pressures, also rose to 16.1 from 12.9.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #58 on: July 18, 2019, 05:35:05 pm »

The Philadelphia Fed saw its primary gauge measuring the sector jump from 0.3 in June to 21.8, far better than Wall Street estimates of 5 and the highest in a year. The index measures the difference between companies saying they are expanding activity against those expecting to reduce.
Nearly every indicator within the index rose sharply: Employment doubled to 30, its highest reading since October 2017, while the average workweek more than tripled to 23, its best in 14 months. Shipments jumped to 24.9 from 16.6 in June, while new orders surged to 18.9 from 8.3. Prices paid, a key measure of inflationary pressures, also rose to 16.1 from 12.9.

That is good to see, because the Beige Book looked really weak in the Northeast, especially the New York district's manufacturing sector.

Rest of the country was pretty so-so except for California, which was the strongest region.
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