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Author Topic: Anybody worried about the US economy?  (Read 312 times)

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Biggus Piggus

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Anybody worried about the US economy?
« on: June 07, 2019, 10:54:53 am »

Just taking your pulse. Ignore headlines. You see any worries in your neck of the woods?
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twistitup

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2019, 11:00:53 am »

We are creating instability w our neighbors and/or major trading partners.

Yes, the economy will soon reflect this instability - most retailers have already sent out warnings, the ripple begins
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2019, 11:59:31 am »

Nope, building factories and hiring in J’boro.
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2019, 12:00:59 pm »

We are creating instability w our neighbors and/or major trading partners.

Yes, the economy will soon reflect this instability - most retailers have already sent out warnings, the ripple begins

That’s in your neck of the woods? Tyson, George’s, Hunt, WM laying off?
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twistitup

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2019, 12:06:03 pm »

That’s in your neck of the woods? Tyson, George’s, Hunt, WM laying off?

Produce prices are going up (among other items)...due to issues w Mexico

Retail prices are going up, in general, due to China issues

Yes - those companies you mention will have challenges hiring the workers needed.

In addition, a large chuck of our available workforce is choosing to not work

...that and we are 'due' for a downward turn
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2019, 12:35:15 pm »

Produce prices are going up (among other items)...due to issues w Mexico

Retail prices are going up, in general, due to China issues

Yes - those companies you mention will have challenges hiring the workers needed.

In addition, a large chuck of our available workforce is choosing to not work

...that and we are 'due' for a downward turn

They aren’t in Jonesboro, Kroger has the same prices and specials on that they have every week. WM dropped their packaged salad 50% a few weeks ago. What retail price has gone up on something you’ve bought lately, he said avoid the national news, report locally.
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twistitup

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2019, 03:48:22 pm »

They aren’t in Jonesboro, Kroger has the same prices and specials on that they have every week. WM dropped their packaged salad 50% a few weeks ago. What retail price has gone up on something you’ve bought lately, he said avoid the national news, report locally.

We aren't seeing the impacts yet on a retail Lev... still working off of backstock and contract deals...what about soybeans for you?
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onebadrubi

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2019, 04:53:37 pm »

Yes, Im getting a little worried.  It has nothing to do with our "neighbors" or political points.  When something has this much steam for this long, it just isn't sustainable.  People will not need that new Tahoe, that new truck, that boat, that four wheeler, or will have bought that lake home, or upgraded their main home etc.  All these things are done when the economy was doing well, I hope done with proper financing as well.  At some point things can't be sustained.  I expect Wall Street to panic because growth will slow, you will see talking heads make it all about politics and nothing else. 

I mentioned it many months ago in the midst of this boom, labor was holding it back and still believe we had a glass ceiling on our economy because of labor shortage. 

It will be interesting how a plateau, so to say, is handled in this world now.  I expect it to be way over exaggerated and for the consumer and normal Joe confidence to be wrecked by media and the likes of over political agenda's.  just my thoughts.  I think you see the stock market numbers being played with along with the China talks, but those are fallacies IMO.  China and the US will resolve this stuff at one point, these daily ups and down swings all the while still maintaining a relatively similar number do nothing but put more line color on the graphs being displayed.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2019, 06:15:46 pm »

Wall Street might panic, because the stock market IS sentiment.
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2019, 07:58:47 pm »

We aren't seeing the impacts yet on a retail Lev... still working off of backstock and contract deals...what about soybeans for you?


Soybeans are a small part of my income, so the price doesn’t have a big impact. I rent my farms out, and the vast majority of it is always in rice. I might have 1000 acres of soybeans grown in a year, I leave it up to the tenants. They can plant them, or fallow it for next year’s rice crop.
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2019, 08:05:32 pm »

Yes, Im getting a little worried.  It has nothing to do with our "neighbors" or political points.  When something has this much steam for this long, it just isn't sustainable.  People will not need that new Tahoe, that new truck, that boat, that four wheeler, or will have bought that lake home, or upgraded their main home etc.  All these things are done when the economy was doing well, I hope done with proper financing as well.  At some point things can't be sustained.  I expect Wall Street to panic because growth will slow, you will see talking heads make it all about politics and nothing else. 

I mentioned it many months ago in the midst of this boom, labor was holding it back and still believe we had a glass ceiling on our economy because of labor shortage. 

It will be interesting how a plateau, so to say, is handled in this world now.  I expect it to be way over exaggerated and for the consumer and normal Joe confidence to be wrecked by media and the likes of over political agenda's.  just my thoughts.  I think you see the stock market numbers being played with along with the China talks, but those are fallacies IMO.  China and the US will resolve this stuff at one point, these daily ups and down swings all the while still maintaining a relatively similar number do nothing but put more line color on the graphs being displayed.

Everyone acts like the next recession will be like 2008, or even the Great Depression. To be in a recession, you have to have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, it doesn’t mean everyone is laid off, the banks go under, or prices skyrocket.

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McKdaddy

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2019, 09:01:48 pm »

Everyone acts like the next recession will be like 2008, or even the Great Depression. To be in a recession, you have to have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, it doesn’t mean everyone is laid off, the banks go under, or prices skyrocket.




^^^^

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widespreadsooie

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2019, 09:01:51 pm »

Yes, I'm concerned that the economy is already overheating or on the verge of overheating. GDP performance is higher than potential and unemployment rates are low, maybe lower than the NAIRU. History will consider those factors leading indicators of an economic recession. Now recession by definition isn't as bad as it sounds, generally a couple quarters of an under performing GDP, but it's on the cusp in my opinion and will happen. Will probably happen at a convenient time for Dems in regards to the 2020 election. 
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widespreadsooie

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2019, 09:02:53 pm »

Ah, I see Riceland Pig has shared one of my sentiments.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2019, 11:17:20 pm »

Everyone acts like the next recession will be like 2008, or even the Great Depression. To be in a recession, you have to have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, it doesn’t mean everyone is laid off, the banks go under, or prices skyrocket.

For reasons I just mentioned I think even a small recession will get blown out of proportion, by the likes of a twist and hawgbawb types.  Media will take it and run to blow it up playing political angles.  Just look at bawb doing it down In politics forum
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twistitup

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2019, 07:53:21 am »

None of us know how bad it will be, but we agree it's going to happen fairly soon
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2019, 08:50:32 am »

None of us know how bad it will be, but we agree it's going to happen fairly soon

Yeah, within the next 18 months......
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2019, 08:52:30 am »

For reasons I just mentioned I think even a small recession will get blown out of proportion, by the likes of a twist and hawgbawb types.  Media will take it and run to blow it up playing political angles.  Just look at bawb doing it down In politics forum

Lol, bawb and Twist mean nothing. What if it happens under a Dem presidency?

twistitup

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2019, 08:54:21 am »

Yeah, within the next 18 months......

I agree
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2019, 10:08:16 am »

For reasons I just mentioned I think even a small recession will get blown out of proportion, by the likes of a twist and hawgbawb types.  Media will take it and run to blow it up playing political angles.  Just look at bawb doing it down In politics forum

How do you blow a friggin' recession out of proportion? This is really goofy.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2019, 10:16:25 am »

Yes, I'm concerned that the economy is already overheating or on the verge of overheating. GDP performance is higher than potential and unemployment rates are low, maybe lower than the NAIRU. History will consider those factors leading indicators of an economic recession. Now recession by definition isn't as bad as it sounds, generally a couple quarters of an under performing GDP, but it's on the cusp in my opinion and will happen. Will probably happen at a convenient time for Dems in regards to the 2020 election. 

The NAIRU is a broken concept. Dead broken.

Our economic system is broken. Investment in capital creates a diminishing number of good jobs. Every sound business is busy trying to engineer labor out of the process. Wealth accrues to the owners of capital, without restraint. We have very low unemployment and meager wage inflation because workers are being herded into service-sector jobs where they are inherently underemployed.

Try looking ahead 20 years when capital is responsible for an even greater share of production and many more labor-intensive jobs have been eliminated. How will our economy work then? When our elder dependency ratio is at a much higher point, too.

widespreadsooie

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2019, 12:42:35 pm »

The NAIRU is a broken concept. Dead broken.

Our economic system is broken. Investment in capital creates a diminishing number of good jobs. Every sound business is busy trying to engineer labor out of the process. Wealth accrues to the owners of capital, without restraint. We have very low unemployment and meager wage inflation because workers are being herded into service-sector jobs where they are inherently underemployed.

Try looking ahead 20 years when capital is responsible for an even greater share of production and many more labor-intensive jobs have been eliminated. How will our economy work then? When our elder dependency ratio is at a much higher point, too.

I'm with you to an extent and think capital investment will grow relatively larger over time due to inevitable technological advances. This will impact the employable job market but I think effective monetary policies can mitigate that impact to being minor, if material at all. Could be wishful thinking and is a guess on my part.
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ErieHog

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2019, 01:17:42 pm »

Despite the best efforts of worriers, no.

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widespreadsooie

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #23 on: June 10, 2019, 03:05:35 pm »

Despite the best efforts of worriers, no.



What makes you confident? Just out of curiosity.

60 Minutes last night had an interview with the chairman of the Fed, his name escapes me at the moment, but I didn't see much confidence in his opinions on the general direction of our economy for the next five years or so. Although, I get he wasn't wanting to say much and made it a point to answer the questions he was asked.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2019, 03:13:17 pm »

How do you blow a friggin' recession out of proportion? This is really goofy.

Really?  You born last night?  Ever see. What our media does with political agendas? They can destroy any Confidence and make it much worse. 
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #25 on: June 10, 2019, 03:20:22 pm »

What makes you confident? Just out of curiosity.

60 Minutes last night had an interview with the chairman of the Fed, his name escapes me at the moment, but I didn't see much confidence in his opinions on the general direction of our economy for the next five years or so. Although, I get he wasn't wanting to say much and made it a point to answer the questions he was asked.

We’re in the longest running expansion ever, of course we’re going to eventually slow dow, and more than likely contract. Nobody knows the length, severity, or time of the next recession, only that there will be one.

The Fed Chairman is Jerome Powell, he and the other governors appear to be cognizant of their effects on interest rates and their influence on the stock market. I think they’ll keep them low until inflation rises above 2% for a few quarters. To me, inflation in that range is healthy, but I’m just a dumb retired farmer.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #26 on: June 10, 2019, 09:27:15 pm »

We’re in the longest running expansion ever, of course we’re going to eventually slow dow, and more than likely contract. Nobody knows the length, severity, or time of the next recession, only that there will be one.

Right. I took that to be understood, whether it was supposed to be or not. I was thinking he may expound, or even mention with relevancy, on what you're saying if he's predicting the predictable. It would've added a lot of value to a terrible interview.

He seemed really uncomfortable, granted he was asked some uncomfortable questions, but his overall tone and demeanor was odd. Almost as if he knew something the public does not know or cannot conclude right now. Not trying to make a conspiracy of it by any means but I would have expected a more forward interview if he was only expecting market correction. 
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ErieHog

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #27 on: June 10, 2019, 10:02:16 pm »

What makes you confident? Just out of curiosity.

60 Minutes last night had an interview with the chairman of the Fed, his name escapes me at the moment, but I didn't see much confidence in his opinions on the general direction of our economy for the next five years or so. Although, I get he wasn't wanting to say much and made it a point to answer the questions he was asked.

Low inflation, a rising prime rate-- so that there will actually eventually be margin to try to use future rate cuts to offset an actual stall--  fantastic employment numbers, a robust atmosphere for profits,  and an economy slowly coming around to learn what to make of the 'uncertainty' factor that accompanies Trump.

Are there things that could be a bit better?  Yeah, there are.     Is it close to complaining about the lack of a cool breeze on an otherwise pretty great weather day?  Definitely.

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  Right now, things are good.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #28 on: June 10, 2019, 10:46:34 pm »

Low inflation, a rising prime rate-- so that there will actually eventually be margin to try to use future rate cuts to offset an actual stall--  fantastic employment numbers, a robust atmosphere for profits,  and an economy slowly coming around to learn what to make of the 'uncertainty' factor that accompanies Trump.

Are there things that could be a bit better?  Yeah, there are.     Is it close to complaining about the lack of a cool breeze on an otherwise pretty great weather day?  Definitely.

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  Right now, things are good.

We do have low inflation right now which is great. Prime rate is rising which I like to keep that inflation rate protected in the short term. Thinking a year, maybe two out, it's tough for me to draw conclusions off those facts unless I ignore the time period of our current expansion.

I don't think anyone is complaining, I'm certainly not. I do think it's time to start thinking about the next economic down turn though, as it's inevitable and "signs" may be creeping in to play. I may die on this hill but I'm expecting Dems to have a convincing platform on the current state of the economy before it's too late to legitimately challenge Trump in 2020.
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ricepig

Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #29 on: June 11, 2019, 07:34:13 am »

We do have low inflation right now which is great. Prime rate is rising which I like to keep that inflation rate protected in the short term. Thinking a year, maybe two out, it's tough for me to draw conclusions off those facts unless I ignore the time period of our current expansion.

I don't think anyone is complaining, I'm certainly not. I do think it's time to start thinking about the next economic down turn though, as it's inevitable and "signs" may be creeping in to play. I may die on this hill but I'm expecting Dems to have a convincing platform on the current state of the economy before it's too late to legitimately challenge Trump in 2020.

The economy determines whether Presidents are one term or not. The Dems don’t want it to improve before election, it hurts their chances. I personally don’t see any of them with enough sense to put together anything of substance for the average voter. I suspect “free” everything will be their platform. I don’t think Trump is any savant either, his job will be to keep his mouth shut, which appears to be impossible. If we work something out with China, it doesn’t have to be great, then the economy should keep on through the elections. That’s my guess, which doesn’t mean squat, and I’m free to change it as I see fit, lol.

Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #30 on: June 11, 2019, 12:42:53 pm »

Some employment statistics are more credible than others. Estimation of the unemployment rate, for example, hinges on one's definition of unemployed. Way too much fudge factor for my tastes.

This is a 30-year chart of the employment/population ratio for men ages 25-54. This age bracket, from end to end, is very comparable when it comes to the % that are actively engaged in the labor force. It doesn't include a lot of college students. It doesn't include people in the ages most likely to retire, or downshift to part-time/intermittent work. This age bracket is the one most highly motivated to work.

And it's all men. The labor force dynamics for women are significantly different.

Maybe I should have run out this chart all the way to the end of World War II. There's a long-term, secular downtrend in the % of the prime working-age male population that is working. It was upper-90s back in the Fifties. Peaked at 90% in 1990, 89% in 2000, 88% in 2007, and now after a decade of recovery then expansion, only back to 86% and change.

What's supposed to happen next? Should this cycle peak at 87% to fit the pattern? Why are 13-14% of prime working-age men not working? Only now are we just approaching the level that was a cyclical trough back in the early 1990s.

How can this be such an awesome labor market if 13-14% of the prime working-age male population is not working? How can this be a great situation if wage inflation barely outpaces price inflation?

Please, Trumpsters, don't be sensitive about this darn. This is a long-long-term situation that has little to do with presidents and political parties.

The big question is how far off are we from where we should be?

If 88-89% of prime working-age men should be employed, then we have 0.8-1.4 million men who should still be available to the labor force.

If only 87% should be employed, we're almost out of labor slack + should be close to the end of the expansion.

Employers roundly complain about labor supply these days, but they aren't pushing wages much higher either. Nobody believes they have much pricing power. Thus, nobody's willing to pay up.

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HawgWild

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #31 on: June 11, 2019, 04:11:26 pm »

Why are 13-14% of prime working-age men not working? Only now are we just approaching the level that was a cyclical trough back in the early 1990s.

How can this be such an awesome labor market if 13-14% of the prime working-age male population is not working? How can this be a great situation if wage inflation barely outpaces price inflation?

Are they locked up?
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #32 on: June 11, 2019, 05:14:02 pm »

Are they locked up?

The incarceration rate has had a modest impact but only a little. That is the question though -- are these men unemployable, or uninterested?

The % of men on disability also has risen over the years, primarily due to age demographics shifting older.

These factors took us from 90% to 87%. But the disability % has a history of being countercyclical. Many of those men come back to work.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #33 on: June 11, 2019, 06:44:20 pm »

Here's something I put together + update every now and then.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Anybody worried about the US economy?
« Reply #34 on: June 12, 2019, 01:58:46 pm »

Two regional Fed models show real GDP growth at 1% in the second quarter. That would be remarkably slow.
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