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Author Topic: CWX  (Read 3413 times)

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calebhog

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CWX
« on: April 14, 2019, 10:43:09 pm »

Thoughts on if we can win the national championship this year.
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SPAL

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Re: CWX
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2019, 10:51:34 pm »

Not likely
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CJ HOG

Re: CWX
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2019, 02:47:23 am »

I think if we can win our last game of the year, we'll have a pretty good chance...

pigheaded

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Re: CWX
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2019, 06:18:14 am »

Opinion is no, not enough pitching and defense right now

But hope is yes and miracles do happen

philiphog

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Re: CWX
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2019, 06:51:31 am »

I expect us to get to a Super and not make it out of it.
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: CWX
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2019, 06:54:20 am »

If we couldn’t close the deal last year, I don’t see it ever happening for us.
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TNhawgfan

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Re: CWX
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2019, 07:06:40 am »

Don't have the starting pitching or bullpen pitching to win it. Making it to a super would be a major accomplishment with such an inexperienced team
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ThisTeetsTaken

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Re: CWX
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2019, 07:46:52 am »

Gotta keep building on our success.  Keep recruiting at an elite level.  On the other hand, you never know.  Last year we beat some teams that were more talented than us.  We got hot and almost pulled it off.  We’re never out of the fight these days, it seems.
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TuckFexas

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Re: CWX
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2019, 08:01:04 am »

Hoping to make it to a SR. Expecting to get bounced in a regional. Beyond Zay our pitching is suspect. Cronin is very good, but his lack of a consistent secondary pitch has me concerned as teams are just sitting on the fastball. The rest of the arms are good but very unreliable. We are also too inconsistent offensively. Too many LOB. This year's lineup isn't even close to last year's.
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bhogs05

Re: CWX
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2019, 08:12:17 am »

Not this year but next year we will have a very good shot at it IMO.  We just don't have enough pitching this year but they will be much better next year with another year under their belt as will our young position players. 
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rinds

Re: CWX
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2019, 08:27:26 am »

Lotta baseball to play before then. With DVH anything is possible.
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dotnet

Re: CWX
« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2019, 08:30:04 am »

Would this Arkansas team be the worst team to win the cws this decade? No way.

Do I honestly think this Arkansas team is a top five team right now? No. (Though if Wicklander comes on as a starter, kosty  comes back strong, Martin gets hot... it can change)

Do I think this team is really good and able to win a SR over one of those top five teams on a given weekend... absolutely.

Knot2brite

Re: CWX
« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2019, 08:33:23 am »

Probably not win it but this team could slip in to the CWS. It would take the perfect storm but I have seen a Arkansas team that was not as talented as this one make it to the CWS
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dotnet

Re: CWX
« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2019, 08:38:57 am »

This team is better than multiple cws teams last year
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ThisTeetsTaken

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Re: CWX
« Reply #14 on: April 15, 2019, 10:22:18 am »

Hoping to make it to a SR. Expecting to get bounced in a regional. Beyond Zay our pitching is suspect. Cronin is very good, but his lack of a consistent secondary pitch has me concerned as teams are just sitting on the fastball. The rest of the arms are good but very unreliable. We are also too inconsistent offensively. Too many LOB. This year's lineup isn't even close to last year's.
I’d like to see the stats for last years lineup vs this year’s.  I’ll bet it’s very close aside from HR’s and RISP.
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HogsonHicks

Re: CWX
« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2019, 10:30:52 am »

This team is better than multiple cws teams last year

Absolutely, I’d take them over Texas, Miss St, and Washington, at a minimum, in last year’s CWS.

Campbell can match anyone’s #1. After that, it comes down to breaks and having a couple unexpected pitchers step up.
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Hog Fan...DOH!

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Re: CWX
« Reply #16 on: April 15, 2019, 10:33:04 am »

Current RPI?  #7.   Yes, this team is a contender.   Unless being #7 and in line to host a Super disqualifies you from contending for the CWS and a national title.

The SEC is freaking sick right now.  Texas is in the Top 10... what about that midweek series made you think Arkansas couldn't take 2/3? 

Yesterday's game might as well have been Game-3 type in a Super.  Game 1 could have gone either way. 

This pitching staff has the uncanny ability to completely forget how to throw strikes all at the same time.  You really miss Kosty right now.  And you really need one more consistent weekend starter. 

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BaconTheSaddleAgain

Re: CWX
« Reply #17 on: April 15, 2019, 11:07:07 am »

Baseball is a weird sport. If we play our way into a top 8 seed, then we could well play our way into Omaha. I really feel like if we don't host a Super, we probably won't make it to Omaha. But if we do host a Super, we're pretty darn good at home and I can see us getting to Omaha.

Now, let's pretend we get to Omaha. If you Campbell goes out there and dominates game one, goes 7 or 8, we don't have to use Cronin, everything goes absolutely perfect for us and we have a full pen for game two, maybe you squeak that one out using 4 or 5 arms and probably Cronin for up to two innings. Once you get to game three, we're not in bad shape because we have multiple guys who can go several innings- Kopps, Ramage, Kostyshock, Wicklander, etc, and Scroggins is capable if inconsistent. If would almost have to win the bracket without going to the loser's bracket n order to get Campbell back on the bump for game 1 of the finals. He would almost certainly have to get a second win in the CWS and then you have to scrap and claw your way to win 1 of 2.

Tall, tall order for this year's bunch.

It's not our best year to make a run, but if the stars align and we play our way into hosting a Super Regional, get three ace performances from Campbell the Super Regional and CWS, and we get some very quality relief from our bullpen....possible. Not likely, but not outside the realm of the plausible.

bulldog04

Re: CWX
« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2019, 11:19:13 am »

Just remember Fresno State and Coastal Carolina won it. Just have to get there and see what happens. But we need Kopps, Ramage, or Kosty to step up and be our Loseke
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dbhog

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Re: CWX
« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2019, 11:24:00 am »

No way.  We don't have the depth in starting pitching and not enough reliable bullpen arms.
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TuckFexas

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Re: CWX
« Reply #20 on: April 15, 2019, 11:24:07 am »

I’d like to see the stats for last years lineup vs this year’s.  I’ll bet it’s very close aside from HR’s and RISP.

I'm just going by the eye test, didn't look at stats. I know the HR #'s are down. But if you substitute last year's guys for who we have this year it doesn't look that close.

This is just the offensive side of the ball:

Cole > Franklin
Shaddy > Kenly
Koch > Opitz
Biggers > Nesbit

That's not to say any of these guys on this year's team are useless, but who would you rather have at the plate if you're DVH ?
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TebowHater

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Re: CWX
« Reply #21 on: April 15, 2019, 12:14:54 pm »

I'm just going by the eye test, didn't look at stats. I know the HR #'s are down. But if you substitute last year's guys for who we have this year it doesn't look that close.

This is just the offensive side of the ball:

Cole > Franklin
Shaddy > Kenly
Koch > Opitz
Biggers > Nesbit

That's not to say any of these guys on this year's team are useless, but who would you rather have at the plate if you're DVH ?

Ezell > Gates
Goodheart >> Bonfield
Nesbit > Biggers (.280 last year)
Koch ~ Opitz
And Dom is hitting much better than he did last year.

So half line-up we actually upgraded from last year. The big difference in this team and last year's at the plate, by far, is simply Martin/Kjerstad aren't hitting .350 each so far. That can change, and may be tracking the right way already. If Martin and and HK simply held serve, we would be be better at 4 spots, equal at 3 spots, and worse at 2 spots (Franklin, Kenley - the latter of which is still hitting over .300 with some power).

Martin is nearly .70 points lower in BA and that is after a couple of better games here recently. HK is actually only .15-.20 points lower in BA.

HogPharmer

Re: CWX
« Reply #22 on: April 15, 2019, 12:22:42 pm »

Ezell > Gates
Goodheart > Bonfield
Nesbit > Biggers (.280 last year)
Koch ~ Opitz
And Dom is hitting much better than he did last year.

The big difference in this team and last year's at the plate, by far, is simply Martin/Kjerstad aren't hitting .350 each so far. That can change, and may be tracking the right way already. 

Martin is nearly .100 points lower in BA and that is after a couple of better games here recently. HK is actually only .15-.20 points lower in BA.

Spot on. We seemed a lot more dangerous of a team last year due to our ability to hit the long ball. I agree with Koch and Opitz being about even. I really didn't see that coming and Opitz is SOLID behind the plate. If Martin and Kjerstad get back to where they were last year, look out because I don't know that anyone can outscore us then.

TuckFexas

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Re: CWX
« Reply #23 on: April 15, 2019, 01:16:39 pm »

Ezell > Gates
Goodheart >> Bonfield
Nesbit > Biggers (.280 last year)
Koch ~ Opitz
And Dom is hitting much better than he did last year.

So half line-up we actually upgraded from last year. The big difference in this team and last year's at the plate, by far, is simply Martin/Kjerstad aren't hitting .350 each so far. That can change, and may be tracking the right way already. If Martin and and HK simply held serve, we would be be better at 4 spots, equal at 3 spots, and worse at 2 spots (Franklin, Kenley - the latter of which is still hitting over .300 with some power).

Martin is nearly .70 points lower in BA and that is after a couple of better games here recently. HK is actually only .15-.20 points lower in BA.



Certainly agree that if Martin and HK were both hitting like we expected it would mask a lot of the offensive woes. And, yes, Ezell is an upgrade over Gates and Goodheart is an upgrade over Bonfield. I'm not convinced Koch/Opitz is a wash offensively because Koch had the ability to go yard anytime. Biggers was also more of a threat at the plate than Nesbit, he at least had some pop. So if we take out CM and HK and call it a wash....we need CM and HK to produce consistently. We're over halfway thru the season, it's time they turn it on.
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TebowHater

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Re: CWX
« Reply #24 on: April 15, 2019, 01:28:29 pm »

Certainly agree that if Martin and HK were both hitting like we expected it would mask a lot of the offensive woes. And, yes, Ezell is an upgrade over Gates and Goodheart is an upgrade over Bonfield. I'm not convinced Koch/Opitz is a wash offensively because Koch had the ability to go yard anytime. Biggers was also more of a threat at the plate than Nesbit, he at least had some pop. So if we take out CM and HK and call it a wash....we need CM and HK to produce consistently. We're over halfway thru the season, it's time they turn it on.

Koch had chance to go yard, however, 1.) his OBP was 60 points lower than Opitz 2.) his RISP average was absolutely awful - least clutch hitter I have seen. In contrast, I can recall at least twice Opitz has delivered game winning hits in the first half of this season, and 3.) Koch's overall average was only 9 points higher than Opitz's is right now. With game on the line, I'd take Opitz 10/10 times but agree to disagree there.

Home runs, sure - Jax hit 4 all last season, Nesbit has 1 (on pace for 2-3) and has been close several other times, but Nesbit has been hitting doubles all over the place the last month. Could potentially call them a wash but certainly not a downgrade.d

oldhawg

Re: CWX
« Reply #25 on: April 15, 2019, 01:37:03 pm »

Thoughts on if we can win the national championship this year.

Razorbacks are 26-10. Last year after 36 games they were 28-8, including a 17-2 drubbing by Florida.

I haven't lost hope yet.  Young pitchers still have an opportunity to end the season on a strong note.
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BaconTheSaddleAgain

Re: CWX
« Reply #26 on: April 15, 2019, 01:40:52 pm »

I think the biggest difference was that Knight was undefeated as a starter and Murphy went 6+ innings on average as a starter with an ERA under 3.30.

The offense is not the problem. We're currently averaging more runs per game right now (7.1) than what we finished with last year (6.9). Now, those numbers are skewed somewhat because last year's number have a full conference slate and postseason runs per game added in where the pitching is stronger. But, we have the offense this year to make a run. It boils down really to getting CWS-caliber starts out the normal Saturday and Sunday starters.
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jjdlc

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Re: CWX
« Reply #27 on: April 15, 2019, 01:48:36 pm »

Our pitching is young and eratic, but when they are on, they are very solid.  IMHO, I think we are might be better deeper into the pen than we were last year.  Our starting pitching was better last year, but we seemed to drop off quickly once they were out.

Offensively, we've not really hit our stride this year, we've seen flashes, but haven't really blown up.  If we can make it to a Super Regional, and hit our stride offensively, and get some good games out of our young pitchers, who knows.  As others said, it's all about the stars aligning.  We are in a pretty good position right now, all things given.

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Re: CWX
« Reply #28 on: April 15, 2019, 01:50:23 pm »

onebadrubi

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Re: CWX
« Reply #29 on: April 15, 2019, 02:30:44 pm »

Ezell > Gates
Goodheart >> Bonfield
Nesbit > Biggers (.280 last year)
Koch ~ Opitz
And Dom is hitting much better than he did last year.

So half line-up we actually upgraded from last year. The big difference in this team and last year's at the plate, by far, is simply Martin/Kjerstad aren't hitting .350 each so far. That can change, and may be tracking the right way already. If Martin and and HK simply held serve, we would be be better at 4 spots, equal at 3 spots, and worse at 2 spots (Franklin, Kenley - the latter of which is still hitting over .300 with some power).

Martin is nearly .70 points lower in BA and that is after a couple of better games here recently. HK is actually only .15-.20 points lower in BA.

Agree except with Koch.  I think offensively Koch was a better batter and coming from me who yelled at the screan to move closer to the plate
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010HogFan

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Re: CWX
« Reply #30 on: April 15, 2019, 04:17:30 pm »

Last year Mississippi State wasn't even supposed to make it to the postseason at midseason and they got super hot at the right time and made it to Omaha. You do that and anything can happen.
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Darth Hogus

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Re: CWX
« Reply #31 on: April 15, 2019, 05:59:55 pm »

Can we get to the CWS.... it’s possible not likely IMO. Next year though... we have a very very good chance
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Hollywood_HOGan45

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Re: CWX
« Reply #32 on: April 15, 2019, 06:03:38 pm »

National title? Nah. Next year will be the year to make another run.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the team in Omaha though.

We’ve had worse teams get there from playing on the road.

The 15 team started 15-15 and rolled to Omaha.

Dvh is one of the best post season coaches in the entire nation.
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tennesseehogwild

Re: CWX
« Reply #33 on: April 15, 2019, 07:15:02 pm »

I picked the Hogs to buck the every 3 year trend at Omaha and get back. Right now I think we are the 4th best team in the SEC. I still believe we can make it back. Once you get there....anything can happen.
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onebadrubi

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Re: CWX
« Reply #34 on: April 15, 2019, 08:05:56 pm »

National title? Nah. Next year will be the year to make another run.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the team in Omaha though.

We’ve had worse teams get there from playing on the road.

The 15 team started 15-15 and rolled to Omaha.

Dvh is one of the best post season coaches in the entire nation.

Pitching depth gets weaker next year
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Pudgepork

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Re: CWX
« Reply #35 on: April 15, 2019, 09:18:53 pm »

This team hasnt jelled into a team.  Most of this season, the bottom of the batting order carried the team.  Then the top came to life for a short time and the bottom disappeared.
Last Saturday the whole team disappeared.   

Pitching has been inconsistent.  PatWick is gonna be fine. Noland will learn to pitch smarter. 

If this team ever puts offense, defense and pitching together, they could sneak back into a lon run in the postseason
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Re: CWX
« Reply #36 on: April 15, 2019, 10:23:00 pm »

Pitching depth gets weaker next year

Do we lose anyone besides Campell and Cronin? Granted thats A LOT, but we'll have a ton of experienced arms coming back. If the draft gods shine on us you can add Nate Wohlgemuth.
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Re: CWX
« Reply #37 on: April 15, 2019, 10:49:20 pm »

If some team with the mascot called Chanticleers can win it all...I'd say we could do it....although if we had a right fielder with a type A personality and a 2nd baseman with a beta personality, we'd be holding our first baseball Natty right now....things just weren't meant to be last year....OSU was a strong team, gotta give them credit
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Re: CWX
« Reply #38 on: April 16, 2019, 12:11:51 am »

Pitching depth gets weaker next year

Do we lose anyone besides Campell and Cronin? Granted thats A LOT, but we'll have a ton of experienced arms coming back. If the draft gods shine on us you can add Nate Wohlgemuth.

This is definitely a massive concern--we lose our top 5 arms. Outside of the two starters, the young guys haven't stepped up like you'd hope. I hope we have some big-time freshmen coming in.

We lose:
Campbell
Scroggins
Kostyshock
Kopps
Cronin

We retain/gain:
Ramage
Wick
Noland
Bolden
Zeb
Denton
Henry
Trest
Taylor
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dotnet

Re: CWX
« Reply #39 on: April 16, 2019, 06:18:51 am »

That’s a solid top three. Wicklander can be elite. Those freshman really need to make a jump though.
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Re: CWX
« Reply #40 on: April 16, 2019, 07:17:53 am »

Is burton done?
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EconHawg

Re: CWX
« Reply #41 on: April 16, 2019, 08:03:33 am »

This is definitely a massive concern--we lose our top 5 arms. Outside of the two starters, the young guys haven't stepped up like you'd hope. I hope we have some big-time freshmen coming in.

We lose:
Campbell
Scroggins
Kostyshock
Kopps
Cronin

We retain/gain:
Ramage
Wick
Noland
Bolden
Zeb
Denton
Henry
Trest
Taylor

A lot of people think Kopps will stick around another year. He can get a medical hardship for the season he missed so he'll have another year of draft leverage if he decides to stay.
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TebowHater

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Re: CWX
« Reply #42 on: April 16, 2019, 11:09:06 am »

A lot of people think Kopps will stick around another year. He can get a medical hardship for the season he missed so he'll have another year of draft leverage if he decides to stay.

Great news! Did not know this, thanks for sharing.

Is burton done?

Sorry, no not to my knowledge - didn't mean to imply that. Just was listing the guys who have pitched any amount of meaningful innings on the year. I still have hope for Burton.
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EconHawg

Re: CWX
« Reply #43 on: April 16, 2019, 11:21:43 am »

Great news! Did not know this, thanks for sharing.


Hope it proves to be correct. Others on here may have more insight into it than I do, I'm just echoing what I've read/heard elsewhere.

I think the medical hardship is pretty likely, and I don't think he'll be taken high enough in the draft this year to make it worth the switch from chartered jets to riding the bus, not if he has another year of leverage. 
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onebadrubi

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Re: CWX
« Reply #44 on: April 16, 2019, 09:58:10 pm »

Hope it proves to be correct. Others on here may have more insight into it than I do, I'm just echoing what I've read/heard elsewhere.

I think the medical hardship is pretty likely, and I don't think he'll be taken high enough in the draft this year to make it worth the switch from chartered jets to riding the bus, not if he has another year of leverage.

Man that would be huge.  He could easily take over Cronins role or maybe be stretched out to weekend starter. 
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shotgun7

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Re: CWX
« Reply #45 on: April 16, 2019, 10:12:48 pm »

Anything is possible, thats why we play the games. I think they have as good a shot as anyone to make it to the CWS, and from there anything can happen. If we could get someone going as a solid#2 starter and solidify the bull pen just a little we would be just as dangerous as anyone.
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onebadrubi

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Re: CWX
« Reply #46 on: April 16, 2019, 10:33:01 pm »

Anything is possible, thats why we play the games. I think they have as good a shot as anyone to make it to the CWS, and from there anything can happen. If we could get someone going as a solid#2 starter and solidify the bull pen just a little we would be just as dangerous as anyone.

Sicklander (intentional) is gonna lock up number 2.  With scroggins, CN, and ramage innings eater.
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Re: CWX
« Reply #47 on: April 18, 2019, 06:12:49 pm »

Man that would be huge.  He could easily take over Cronins role or maybe be stretched out to weekend starter. 

So that would give you:
Wicklander
Noland
Ramage
Vermillion
Bolden
Kopps

As returning guys you feel really good about. (Leaving off Denton bc side armers feel less consistent)

That’s a pretty decent returning list with all the freshman who can contribute and newcomers.
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EconHawg

Re: CWX
« Reply #48 on: April 18, 2019, 07:35:30 pm »

So that would give you:
Wicklander
Noland
Ramage
Vermillion
Bolden
Kopps

As returning guys you feel really good about. (Leaving off Denton bc side armers feel less consistent)

That’s a pretty decent returning list with all the freshman who can contribute and newcomers.

Yup. Coming in to this year there were ~7 arms I felt alright about (also not counting Denton).

Any one have info on Sanchez? I figure a redshirt is a given, but any more details?
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: CWX
« Reply #49 on: April 18, 2019, 08:52:32 pm »

Don't have the starting pitching or bullpen pitching to win it. Making it to a super would be a major accomplishment with such an inexperienced team
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