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Author Topic: BA Preseason AA List  (Read 598 times)

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Razrpig256

BA Preseason AA List
« on: January 28, 2019, 03:52:21 pm »

Baseball America released their list of pre-season All-Americans today.

RP Matt Cronin - First team
OF Dominic Fletcher - Second team
OF Heston Kjerstad - Third team

First of all, this list seems almost backwards. I'm not sure Cronin is quite deserving of a first team AA, but perhaps close. There is no way Kjerstad should only be a third team AA, and the fact that Casey Martin was left completely off this list is nothing short of absolutely criminal. These lists ultimately don't mean much, but this makes absolutely no sense.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-college-baseball-preseason-all-americans/

Grizzlyfan

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Re: BA Preseason AA List
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2019, 04:14:20 pm »

Baseball America released their list of pre-season All-Americans today.

RP Matt Cronin - First team
OF Dominic Fletcher - Second team
OF Heston Kjerstad - Third team

First of all, this list seems almost backwards. I'm not sure Cronin is quite deserving of a first team AA, but perhaps close. There is no way Kjerstad should only be a third team AA, and the fact that Casey Martin was left completely off this list is nothing short of absolutely criminal. These lists ultimately don't mean much, but this makes absolutely no sense.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-college-baseball-preseason-all-americans/
There are LOTS of great players in D1 baseball. 
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Jaxhog

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Re: BA Preseason AA List
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2019, 04:42:55 pm »

Baseball America released their list of pre-season All-Americans today.

RP Matt Cronin - First team
OF Dominic Fletcher - Second team
OF Heston Kjerstad - Third team

First of all, this list seems almost backwards. I'm not sure Cronin is quite deserving of a first team AA, but perhaps close. There is no way Kjerstad should only be a third team AA, and the fact that Casey Martin was left completely off this list is nothing short of absolutely criminal. These lists ultimately don't mean much, but this makes absolutely no sense.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-college-baseball-preseason-all-americans/

I will have to respectfully disagree with you. First of all, the teams were determined by MLB Scouts from 15 different organizations.  Since they are focused on draft eligible 2019s, the list is always going to reflect those players.  Thus is the reason the first team is all juniors.
Secondly, Casey Martin is a terrific ball player., however, Casey is being evaluated as a shortstop and hasnt yet played a single inning at the position.  You didn't mention which of the 3 players ahead of him on the list that you thought Casey was better than.  I can tell you two of them were on Team USA this past summer.
Third, with Heston making 3rd Team, that means just 6 players were ahead of him and one of them stands  just to the right of him.  Several of those outfielders were also on Team USA. 
Finally, neither Heston or Casey played in a summer league.  Not only did this limit their exposure but they didnt get any swings with a wood bat.  Scouts want to see that wood bat.  I can tell you that is very important to scouts.  Wood is a game changer for many players (see Spencer Torkelson)
Reharding Matt Cronin, you need to dig a little deeper than just ERA.  That is his only negative stat and if you dig in a little deeper you'll see the number doesnt reflect the season he had.
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TebowHater

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Re: BA Preseason AA List
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2019, 04:58:09 pm »

I will have to respectfully disagree with you. First of all, the teams were determined by MLB Scouts from 15 different organizations. ...
Finally, neither Heston or Casey played in a summer league.  Not only did this limit their exposure but they didnt get any swings with a wood bat.  Scouts want to see that wood bat.  I can tell you that is very important to scouts.  Wood is a game changer for many players (see Spencer Torkelson)

Then this is just horrible methodology for selecting a COLLEGIATE All-American team. How they chart as pros, how well known they are by pro scouts, how well they can swing a wood bat, etc. are all completely irrelevant to who the best college baseball players are. Casey not being on any of the top three after the season he had and physical skills he possesses (if he slumps or not this season he will still have his speed and quickness, which sets a pretty high floor) is a complete joke.

Razrpig256

Re: BA Preseason AA List
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2019, 06:19:12 pm »

Then this is just horrible methodology for selecting a COLLEGIATE All-American team. How they chart as pros, how well known they are by pro scouts, how well they can swing a wood bat, etc. are all completely irrelevant to who the best college baseball players are. Casey not being on any of the top three after the season he had and physical skills he possesses (if he slumps or not this season he will still have his speed and quickness, which sets a pretty high floor) is a complete joke.

Correct. Even so, D1 projected Martin as the #1 college player in the 2020 draft. Makes no sense.

Razrpig256

Re: BA Preseason AA List
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2019, 06:37:45 pm »

I will have to respectfully disagree with you. First of all, the teams were determined by MLB Scouts from 15 different organizations.  Since they are focused on draft eligible 2019s, the list is always going to reflect those players.  Thus is the reason the first team is all juniors.
Secondly, Casey Martin is a terrific ball player., however, Casey is being evaluated as a shortstop and hasnt yet played a single inning at the position.  You didn't mention which of the 3 players ahead of him on the list that you thought Casey was better than.  I can tell you two of them were on Team USA this past summer.
Third, with Heston making 3rd Team, that means just 6 players were ahead of him and one of them stands  just to the right of him.  Several of those outfielders were also on Team USA. 
Finally, neither Heston or Casey played in a summer league.  Not only did this limit their exposure but they didnt get any swings with a wood bat.  Scouts want to see that wood bat.  I can tell you that is very important to scouts.  Wood is a game changer for many players (see Spencer Torkelson)
Reharding Matt Cronin, you need to dig a little deeper than just ERA.  That is his only negative stat and if you dig in a little deeper you'll see the number doesnt reflect the season he had.

I don't really see what a wood bat has to do with projecting All-Americans. To be fair, I haven't seen any of those 3 SS play but he is a year behind all of them and posted similar or better numbers in terms of average and/or power compared to all 3, and likely against better pitching than all 3. I would bet good money he has more speed and range than them as well, granted that is an assumption on my part.

As far as Cronin, I'm aware he's better than the numbers. My concern is stamina and the fact he has shown he can throw two pitches consistently. I agree the stuff is elite, but he hasn't yet shown a third pitch, which is mostly fine for a short-term closer at this level, just not sure it's first team AA worthy. I believe other publications have had him second or third team, which seems about right.
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ucahogfan

Re: BA Preseason AA List
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2019, 06:57:14 pm »

Everyone talks about how great of a defender Fletcher is and that is why a lot of his value comes from his ability to man CF on a daily basis.  Sure, most scouts probably throw a 45/50 on his speed tool, but his ability to read the ball off the bat and take proper routes are gold glove level.  He makes really tough plays look routine because of his first two steps.  His older brother David Fletcher was an elite defender in college who put up lesser offensive stats and is already playing in the big leagues with the Angels.  Dominic was a huge get for us in the 2016 class.

As for Cronin, I have posted about why that 3.54 ERA is probably as bad as it could have been for a closer and indicated he might have been the unluckiest pitcher in college baseball last year.  A player pretty comparable to him would be Parker Caracci at Ole Miss who posted a 2.25 ERA last year and has been on most of the AA lists like Cronin.  Their 2018 stats are as follows:

Matt Cronin - 2-2, 14 S, 3.54 ERA, 25 appearances, 48.1 IP, 25 hits allowed (6 doubles, 3 HRs), 19 runs allowed (all earned), 14 walks, 59 Ks, 5 WPs, 1 HBP, .154 BAA

Parker Caracci - 5-2, 10 S, 2.25 ERA, 27 appearances, 48.0 IP, 38 hits allowed (13 doubles, 1 HR), 16 runs allowed (12 earned), 14 walks, 73 Ks, 3 WPs, 4 HBP, .221 BAA

Looking at the raw numbers, their ERAs should have been similar, but they were not.  Caracci did a better job of striking out hitters (approximately 1 more every 9-12 outs) and kept the ball in the yard, but Cronin's numbers were either better or similar otherwise.  I think we see Cronin have an ERA more of a 2.00 or lower this year as that is what last year's numbers say they should have been.
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ucahogfan

Re: BA Preseason AA List
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2019, 07:06:19 pm »

I will have to respectfully disagree with you. First of all, the teams were determined by MLB Scouts from 15 different organizations.  Since they are focused on draft eligible 2019s, the list is always going to reflect those players.  Thus is the reason the first team is all juniors.
And also why 3 of the 4 first team pitchers had ERAs in 2018 of 4.32 or higher.  It is all potential based as Dyson, Lodolo, and Thompson are seen as potential high picks.  Meanwhile, Campbell was our only consistently used arm (the three weekend starters and Cronin/Loseke/Reindl/Ramage) with an ERA above 4.00.

Of course, this AA list is not really as egregious as the Collegiate Baseball list (which no one really recognizes anyway) which only saw Casey Martin on the team and was a 3rd team AA.
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