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BAC

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HawgWild:

Anybody got any? I'm going to buy some today. I've shied away from banking stocks long enough.

HognotinMemphis:

No, but have been in JPM and USB since early 2010. I do not foresee liquidating either any time soon.

john c:

As has been discussed with HiM in prior threads, I feel strongly positive about BAC.  My target is $24/share so I'm in hold mode.  They are big and have been slowly climbing out of their Countrywide and other messes.

Now, being more of a bottom fish and hold type, I'm not sure how much more invested I want to get at this point.  If my buy time target of $24 is solid then, from today, I would be looking at a 40% increase if target hits over X time period for some rate of return, again, from today.  I'm thinking about doing that but waffling on pulling the trigger exposes my personal risk thoughts.

HawgWild:


--- Quote from: john c on February 14, 2014, 11:51:29 am ---thoughts.
--- End quote ---

My thoughts? I hope you're right. I tend to hold long term all my individual stocks. I'm using some funds I rolled over into a Traditional IRA so I might take profits if this has a quick run-up of that much. I hope I get to find out.

Good luck.

HognotinMemphis:

The best both you and John C could do is open an account with me and let me manage your portfolios. You would grow your accounts even more and have a lot more time to spend on other things. I take relationships around $500K+.

john c:

Hmmm, sounds an awful like a guarantee.  Aren't you more of an equities/wealth increase guy rather than a periodic income provider?  The latter is where my interests lie.  I would think all those rich farmers along the river would be fertile for prospects.

HognotinMemphis:


--- Quote from: john c on February 18, 2014, 09:32:17 pm ---Hmmm, sounds an awful like a guarantee.  Aren't you more of an equities/wealth increase guy rather than a periodic income provider?  The latter is where my interests lie.  I would think all those rich farmers along the river would be fertile for prospects.

--- End quote ---
My accounts have provided more income than the 10 year T note over the past couple of years or so.

HawgWild:

BAC making a nice move today.

userpick:

I got BAC when it was $5.13 so it's been very nice so far. Hopefully it keeps rising. I'm thinking about investing in Oracle. Thoughts?

HawgWild:


--- Quote from: userpick on March 24, 2014, 11:39:55 pm --- I'm thinking about investing in Oracle. Thoughts?

--- End quote ---

Not from me on this but I do think BAC goes up a few more dollars. It recently passed the "stress test"; barely but it did. We'll know tomorrow whether or not it'll raise the dividend. Price will rise if it does. I'm hoping JohnC sees his target PPS of $24.

The Hogfather:

Raised dividend to $0.05 and a $4 billion stock buyback.  What do you guys think?  About what everyone expected, right?

john c---Do you think we'll get to $24 anytime in the somewhat near future?  What is a realistic timeline for BAC to get there?

john c:

Although it's my nature to analyze something to death and back, in the case of BAC I did absolutely no investigation and my $24 target was just yanked out of the air.  Actually, about the time of the crash there was a commercial rental property I had bought and because the interest rates were so low decided to use bank money (BAC) to pay for it rather than already invested funds.  So, I took my $24 target and bought enough BAC shares at what seemed a ridiculously low price to cover the purchase price of the property when, and if, BAC rose to $24.  In short, let BAC pay BAC back as well as my cash investment.  Seemed like a reasonable unreasonable fun thing to do.  The moral is that no one should ever pay any attention to what I do in the market.

As for a time frame, my judgment is just as analytical and the following pretty much describes my attitude:

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+rolling+stones+time+is+on+my+side&FORM=VIRE6#view=detail&mid=55D0C85E4A96CCCCD2DB55D0C85E4A96CCCCD2DB



The Hogfather:


--- Quote from: john c on March 27, 2014, 10:27:33 am ---Although it's my nature to analyze something to death and back, in the case of BAC I did absolutely no investigation and my $24 target was just yanked out of the air.  Actually, about the time of the crash there was a commercial rental property I had bought and because the interest rates were so low decided to use bank money (BAC) to pay for it rather than already invested funds.  So, I took my $24 target and bought enough BAC shares at what seemed a ridiculously low price to cover the purchase price of the property when, and if, BAC rose to $24.  In short, let BAC pay BAC back as well as my cash investment.  Seemed like a reasonable unreasonable fun thing to do.  The moral is that no one should ever pay any attention to what I do in the market.

As for a time frame, my judgment is just as analytical and the following pretty much describes my attitude:

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+rolling+stones+time+is+on+my+side&FORM=VIRE6#view=detail&mid=55D0C85E4A96CCCCD2DB55D0C85E4A96CCCCD2DB



--- End quote ---

Ha!  Ok, thanks for responding.

HawgWild:

Maybe, just maybe BAC has finally dealt with all their crap and can move forward from here.

HawgWild:


--- Quote from: john c on February 14, 2014, 11:51:29 am ---I feel strongly positive about BAC.  My target is $24/share so I'm in hold mode. 
--- End quote ---

john c - You still have your BAC? If so, you may realize that $24 pps yet.


--- Quote from: userpick on March 24, 2014, 11:39:55 pm ---I got BAC when it was $5.13 so it's been very nice so far. Hopefully it keeps rising. I'm thinking about investing in Oracle. Thoughts?
--- End quote ---

userpick, you still holding?

HawgWild:

Broke through $24 yesterday and still rising today.

ricepig:

I'm not much on the big bank stocks, although my CFA son said to buy Barclays after the Brexit, I've still got it. My other stock is locals, Simmons and Iberia, and most of the Iberia came from buying Pokey Federal stock years ago.

I wouldn't have touched BAC anyway, absolutely the worse banking experience I ever had. They bought out a local bank and I get my household account there because it was handy. They had more fees and excuses for not giving you access to your money for days. I remember bringing in a certified check from another bank after selling a piece of property, they wouldn't let me have access that day, a Friday, so I lost interest until the next Monday. I quickly closed that account and went to another local bank.

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on February 14, 2014, 06:27:48 am ---Anybody got any? I'm going to buy some today. I've shied away from banking stocks long enough.

--- End quote ---
Have a TON of it. Banks (and financials) in general should do well as both economy and interest begin to pick up. One positive outlier would obviously be any easement in provisions in some of the regulations that have squeezed the industry since '08.

The key to BAC going forward will be actual growth in revenue and earnings. They've "slashed and burned" expenses to the bone and have pretty much rung out any excess expenses that have weighed them down. Now they need to show they can actually benefit from a better overall environment for financials.

HawgWild:

I bought some RF back in September and it's now up 62%. I think financials will continue to rise as the interest rate does.

BigBrandonAllenFan:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on February 14, 2014, 06:27:48 am ---Anybody got any? I'm going to buy some today. I've shied away from banking stocks long enough.

--- End quote ---

Arbass asked for a tip and I advised banking stocks last April.  Most bank stocks are up forty to fifty percent since that time, pretty much leading the charge of all stocks.  I bought a modest piece of Fidelity Select Banking the week after this post in April, but sold it not long afterwards.


--- Quote from: arbass23 on March 29, 2016, 03:56:49 pm ---I just opened a Scottrade account with $1000, and plan to add $250 a month to the account. What kind of strategy would you use with the amount of money I am having to start with. Any info or advice would be greatly appreciatied.
http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=611022.0

--- End quote ---


--- Quote ---BigBrandonAllenFan

Re: New Investor

Reply #10 on: April 01, 2016, 03:10:07 pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm not buying anything right now.  Sold the last few bits of stocks I had today.  We have seen a 12% or so upswing in the last few months in the NASDAQ composite.  If you are getting in now, you're kinda late for the boat ride. 

History says US presidential election years make the US and world markets shaky.  At some point between now and November, we are likely to see a ten to as high as twenty percent drop.  The market may indeed gain another five or six percent in the meantime (maybe), but it is topping as we speak IMO.  I've got my money is Fed Reserve Cash Funds right now, the safest bet there is next to an FDIC savings account.  I'm betting tomorrow (Friday) we see some significant sell-off (profit taking) happening.

If I were going to buy anything, I'd buy banking shares.

I'm not making any moves until a decent decline happens.
--- End quote ---



BigBrandonAllenFan:

Then directly after my post that is quoted above, PETrader commented this as to my advise to buy banking shares>>>


--- Quote from: PEtrader on April 08, 2016, 02:05:15 pm ---Best  advice I can give you is to not listen to the yahoos on Hogville for investment advice.

--- End quote ---

Then Hawgwild, you said this immediately after PETrader>>>

--- Quote from: HawgWild on April 08, 2016, 03:04:11 pm ---I'll second that!  ;D

--- End quote ---

PETrader gave you and everyone terrible advise by telling you all not to listen to me for investment advise, (me the "yahoo on Hogville")...

I gave you literally the very best stock tip on the entire board!  If you had went exactly the opposite approach and taken my advise, you would have made 50% on your portfolio since last April in banking shares.

Just saying...

HawgWild:

Who are you talking to?

BigBrandonAllenFan:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on February 16, 2017, 06:24:01 pm ---Who are you talking to?

--- End quote ---
you. You snubbed my adivise in your reply back in April to buy banking shares, and now after the bank stocks are up 40 to 50 percent since then, and are topping out now in my assessment, you now are buying the same stock that you have pretty much missed the bus on and snubbed when the timing was right. I don't get it. Bank stocks fell today. Good luck though, maybe the bank stock run will continue.

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: BigBrandonAllenFan on February 16, 2017, 06:51:18 pm --- you. You snubbed my adivise in your reply back in April to buy banking shares, and now after the bank stocks are up 40 to 50 percent since then, and are topping out now in my assessment, you now are buying the same stock that you have pretty much missed the bus on and snubbed when the timing was right. I don't get it. Bank stocks fell today. Good luck though, maybe the bank stock run will continue.

--- End quote ---
While it's certainly very possible that we could have a short term correction/pullback given the huge run up in the financials, the fundamentals such as earnings and overall interest rate spreads should carry for a while. IF you're willing to buy and hold the stocks for the next six to twelve months (or longer) I think you'll be fine. However, it could be a little dicey shorter term.

HawgWild:


--- Quote from: BigBrandonAllenFan on February 16, 2017, 06:51:18 pm --- you. You snubbed my adivise in your reply back in April to buy banking shares, and now after the bank stocks are up 40 to 50 percent since then, and are topping out now in my assessment, you now are buying the same stock that you have pretty much missed the bus on and snubbed when the timing was right. I don't get it. Bank stocks fell today. Good luck though, maybe the bank stock run will continue.

--- End quote ---

Huh? I've owned BAC since 2014.


--- Quote from: BigBrandonAllenFan on February 16, 2017, 05:40:22 pm ---I gave you literally the very best stock tip on the entire board!  If you had went exactly the opposite approach and taken my advise, you would have made 50% on your portfolio since last April in banking shares.

Just saying...
--- End quote ---

The RF I bought last fall is up + 60% I'm doing OK for now on my own thank you.

BigBrandonAllenFan:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on February 17, 2017, 09:26:39 am ---Huh? I've owned BAC since 2014.

The RF I bought last fall is up + 60% I'm doing OK for now on my own than you.

--- End quote ---

Oh.  My bad.  I apologize.

Vantage 8 dude:

BTW not sure if anyone else is aware of it, however, late last week it was announced the head of BAC, Brian Monyihan, received a small "raise" in comp. His overall package is now something like $20 million, about $16 million of that in stock options/bonuses and the rest in cash.  Just to put it in perspective that's right at a 25% bump over last year. Gosh, I sure hope he can manage to survive on such meager rations.  ::) :puke:
 

ricepig:


--- Quote from: Vantage 8 dude on February 19, 2017, 01:45:02 pm ---BTW not sure if anyone else is aware of it, however, late last week it was announced the head of BAC, Brian Monyihan, received a small "raise" in comp. His overall package is now something like $20 million, about $16 million of that in stock options/bonuses and the rest in cash.  Just to put it in perspective that's right at a 25% bump over last year. Gosh, I sure hope he can manage to survive on such meager rations.  ::) :puke:
 

--- End quote ---

I remember when I had to get by on such meager crumbs.

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: ricepig on February 19, 2017, 04:18:31 pm ---I remember when I had to get by on such meager crumbs.

--- End quote ---
Well since I never had the opportunity please tell me how the "other half" (i.e. 1%ers) live. ;) :D ??? :-X

BigBrandonAllenFan:


--- Quote from: Vantage 8 dude on February 19, 2017, 06:50:54 pm ---Well since I never had the opportunity please tell me how the "other half" (i.e. 1%ers) live. ;) :D ??? :-X

--- End quote ---

They get a bowl of white beans with their bread crumbs. Pretty nice.

ricepig:


--- Quote from: BigBrandonAllenFan on February 20, 2017, 09:01:33 am ---They get a bowl of white beans with their bread crumbs. Pretty nice.

--- End quote ---

If those are cornbread crumbs, and there's enough in there, then that's living on the high side.

HawgWild:

FWIW, Jon Najarian said today that he still thinks BAC is a $30 stock. The others on the panel seemed to agree.

HawgWild:

Well, looks like it's the regional banks' time for a run up. Is this due to anticipating that the tax cut will pass, interest rates will rise, both?

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on November 29, 2017, 09:50:46 am ---Well, looks like it's the regional banks' time for a run up. Is this due to anticipating that the tax cut will pass, interest rates will rise, both?

--- End quote ---
Much of the current strength in the financials is due to the anticipation of both rising interest rates in '18 AND continued movement toward lessening industry regulation. The increased costs associated with the reforms implemented in the wake of the financial meltdown back in 2007-08 has been a huge drag on the vast majority of bank's earnings and balance sheets. Any relief in both areas should have a very positive impact on the entire industry; the improvement of the regulatory restraints should be most keenly felt with the national (money center) banks.

HognotinMemphis:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on March 22, 2017, 04:40:15 pm ---FWIW, Jon Najarian said today that he still thinks BAC is a $30 stock. The others on the panel seemed to agree.

--- End quote ---
Closed at $28.17 today. Bought it around $12 less than 2 years ago.

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: HoginMemphis on November 30, 2017, 04:05:48 pm ---Closed at $28.17 today. Bought it around $12 less than 2 years ago.

--- End quote ---
Sorry to inform you 'cause you and I have tangled more than once. However, I bought it with a cost basis of $2.85 to $3.90. Have had to hold it for a while, however, it's been worth the wait. I suspect that it will continue to do well for a while longer......

HognotinMemphis:


--- Quote from: Vantage 8 dude on November 30, 2017, 07:54:23 pm ---Sorry to inform you 'cause you and I have tangled more than once. However, I bought it with a cost basis of $2.85 to $3.90. Have had to hold it for a while, however, it's been worth the wait. I suspect that it will continue to do well for a while longer......

--- End quote ---
Why are you sorry to brag about that?

By the way, the only time in the last 20 years BAC has traded as low as you say you your cost basis is was in late 2008. So you bought your entire position then with no averaging down so your cost basis is at a 25 year low? If so, what a genius you were then when everyone else was selling. And you've kept it all of this time with no selling when your investment doubled, tripled, quadrupled in the last couple of years. Again, a disciplined genius.

If your average cost basis is around $3.50 and you've held it since late 2008, that is an average annual return of approx 26%. As you said, well worth the wait.

My average cost basis is $13.25 with positions bought between March and June of 2016. Thus, my average annual return on BAC for my clients and my personal account is 60.93%. When your BAC return catches up with my BAC average annual return, let me know.

 

HognotinMemphis:


--- Quote from: BigBrandonAllenFan on February 16, 2017, 05:40:22 pm ---Then directly after my post that is quoted above, PETrader commented this as to my advise to buy banking shares>>>

Then Hawgwild, you said this immediately after PETrader>>>
PETrader gave you and everyone terrible advise by telling you all not to listen to me for investment advise, (me the "yahoo on Hogville")...

I gave you literally the very best stock tip on the entire board!  If you had went exactly the opposite approach and taken my advise, you would have made 50% on your portfolio since last April in banking shares.

Just saying...

--- End quote ---
I cannot force myself to take any advice from someone who does not know when to use "gone" rather than "went" when writing or speaking. Same for not knowing how to spell, "advice". Just cannot do it.

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: HoginMemphis on December 02, 2017, 11:26:23 am ---Why are you sorry to brag about that?

By the way, the only time in the last 20 years BAC has traded as low as you say you your cost basis is was in late 2008. So you bought your entire position then with no averaging down so your cost basis is at a 25 year low? If so, what a genius you were then when everyone else was selling. And you've kept it all of this time with no selling when your investment doubled, tripled, quadrupled in the last couple of years. Again, a disciplined genius.

If your average cost basis is around $3.50 and you've held it since late 2008, that is an average annual return of approx 26%. As you said, well worth the wait.

My average cost basis is $13.25 with positions bought between March and June of 2016. Thus, my average annual return on BAC for my clients and my personal account is 60.93%. When your BAC return catches up with my BAC average annual return, let me know.

--- End quote ---
Thanks for the comments. Yep, it did take some real gonads to be able to pull the trigger. Then again, I was working for BAC at the time (since retired). Under the circumstances I was either going to be VERY wrong, both from an investment and employment standpoint, or I was going to be hitting pretty much a home run. Obviously very happy to have taken the massive deep breath it took to "pull the trigger". Nice thing too is as they're finally bumping the dividend after all their restructuring it's also beginning to pay off from an income standpoint.

And yes, you obviously did VERY well on yours. Congrats.

john c:

Read the Vantage 8 / HIM posts and decided to update my BAC post from several years ago.  Originally bought enough BAC at a 'ridiculously low' price (similar to Vantage) to pay for a commercial rental property bought for the Grandkids' trust using a $24/share projected price.  Quickly bought more at about a $1/share more to cover stock sale CG taxes and other future holding costs.  BAC did hit my price target but didn't hit it within my calendar target primarily, I think, due to all their legal problems.  So, had to make a choice when the calendar date came - decided to wait on the price which threw off my total plan by a couple of years BUT I didn't buy more at that time to cover the additional carrying costs required to make my original plan of 'BAC pay for building'.  My other choice to hit the BAC pay target was to raise the sale price target - which I chose to do.  In the meantime, paid the bank off and charged myself 3% interest as a carrying cost.  The time/price stars got very close not long ago so I bailed as a kind gesture to other BAC owners knowing that the price would have a chance to rise quickly if I was out of it.  In the end, didn't hit exactly but was very close and a fortunate move, thank you BAC.

All that boring saga said, getting lucky every once in a while isn't a solid financial plan.

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: john c on December 03, 2017, 11:21:23 pm ---Read the Vantage 8 / HIM posts and decided to update my BAC post from several years ago.  Originally bought enough BAC at a 'ridiculously low' price (similar to Vantage) to pay for a commercial rental property bought for the Grandkids' trust using a $24/share projected price.  Quickly bought more at about a $1/share more to cover stock sale CG taxes and other future holding costs.  BAC did hit my price target but didn't hit it within my calendar target primarily, I think, due to all their legal problems.  So, had to make a choice when the calendar date came - decided to wait on the price which threw off my total plan by a couple of years BUT I didn't buy more at that time to cover the additional carrying costs required to make my original plan of 'BAC pay for building'.  My other choice to hit the BAC pay target was to raise the sale price target - which I chose to do.  In the meantime, paid the bank off and charged myself 3% interest as a carrying cost.  The time/price stars got very close not long ago so I bailed as a kind gesture to other BAC owners knowing that the price would have a chance to rise quickly if I was out of it.  In the end, didn't hit exactly but was very close and a fortunate move, thank you BAC.

All that boring saga said, getting lucky every once in a while isn't a solid financial plan.

--- End quote ---
Like other BAC shareholders who managed to come out okay I totally agree that "getting lucky" is never a very sensible reason to make any investment. The only real difference in my case was I was betting on the whole slate of new management being able to come to grips with the major cluster that the former CEO and team had made of the bank's financial status. And while the vast majority of major banks were in some type of stress, BAC was in a particular bad place due primarily to bad real estate and other debt the company had absorbed over the previous several years. And while the massive cost cutting and other "blood letting" was extremely painful, at least it appears that the bank has emerged on the other side in fairly good shape.

So, yeah, I suppose I was gambling to some degree on the company's new management. However, when we look at any company one of the most important things to do is to try to judge and criticize the abilities and depth of quality management. 

HognotinMemphis:


--- Quote from: john c on December 03, 2017, 11:21:23 pm ---Read the Vantage 8 / HIM posts and decided to update my BAC post from several years ago.  Originally bought enough BAC at a 'ridiculously low' price (similar to Vantage) to pay for a commercial rental property bought for the Grandkids' trust using a $24/share projected price.  Quickly bought more at about a $1/share more to cover stock sale CG taxes and other future holding costs.  BAC did hit my price target but didn't hit it within my calendar target primarily, I think, due to all their legal problems.  So, had to make a choice when the calendar date came - decided to wait on the price which threw off my total plan by a couple of years BUT I didn't buy more at that time to cover the additional carrying costs required to make my original plan of 'BAC pay for building'.  My other choice to hit the BAC pay target was to raise the sale price target - which I chose to do.  In the meantime, paid the bank off and charged myself 3% interest as a carrying cost.  The time/price stars got very close not long ago so I bailed as a kind gesture to other BAC owners knowing that the price would have a chance to rise quickly if I was out of it.  In the end, didn't hit exactly but was very close and a fortunate move, thank you BAC.

All that boring saga said, getting lucky every once in a while isn't a solid financial plan.

--- End quote ---
Life is risky. Life can be a gamble. Maybe a calculated gamble, but still a gamble. Pretty confident that only God knows.

Vantage 8 dude:


--- Quote from: HoginMemphis on December 04, 2017, 11:17:32 am ---Life is risky. Life can be a gamble. Maybe a calculated gamble, but still a gamble. Pretty confident that only God knows.

--- End quote ---
Yep, got that right. One of the first things my folks taught me is that life is not guaranteed. The only thing we can do is live it to the best of our ability and try to limit the amount of foolish chances we take. And as for God, one of my favorite all time sayings and bit of wisdom is "Man plans, God laughs".

HawgWild:

Interest rate is up and BAC is down today. Whaddupwitdat?

ricepig:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on December 13, 2017, 04:43:07 pm ---Interest rate is up and BAC is down today. Whaddupwitdat?

--- End quote ---

I've got 4 bank stocks, 1 up, 2 down, and 1 unchanged. Probably more of buy the rumor, sell the fact.

Boardon Hamsay:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on December 13, 2017, 04:43:07 pm ---Interest rate is up and BAC is down today. Whaddupwitdat?

--- End quote ---

I have to think the December rate increase was already priced in to the US banks. What we really need is Europe to see higher inflation and move their rates. The Europe CPI report Monday should provide some good insights into where the US banks are going. The Fed dumping some bonds would also be beneficial.

HawgWild:

BAC down 4.52% today. Ouch!

Boardon Hamsay:


--- Quote from: HawgWild on March 23, 2018, 05:26:37 pm ---BAC down 4.52% today. Ouch!

--- End quote ---

Good buying opportunity for those with little or no exposure to BAC. I believe the financials were under pressure from profit taking from the rate hike and then got pin actioned late in the week with broader tariff concern based selloff.  Overall, BAC should have a price target between $32-34, IMO, and that includes two more rate hikes this year being priced in. The main headwind to the broader market in the near term is obviously any future tariff concerns and then my main concern, the next GDP number coming in soft.  I own JPM personally but would be a buyer of BAC below $28 and a seller around $34.

HawgWild:

What a difference a day makes; up 4.35% today. Nice spread if you timed it right.

HawgWild:

Why the drop in pps for BAC? I thought rising interest rates would boost the share price of banks.
TIA

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