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Author Topic: Glancing at the stats (Revised)  (Read 1637 times)

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Niels Boar

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Glancing at the stats (Revised)
« on: November 09, 2012, 11:46:16 pm »

My apologies to those who read this post before Saturday afternoon.  I screwed this up badly. First game jitters, and I didn't actually see the game as a check on the arithmetic. At least that's my excuse.  I forgot to subtract the the Orebs in calculating the possessions in my head.  That skewed the per possession stats.  Plus, the boxscore has been revised from what I saw last night.  The overall conclusions aren't much different, though the first impressions on D and O are inverted now.  The performance wasn't terrible nor anything to get terribly excited about.  The boxscore looks okay given the presumed level of competition, the absence of the probable leading scorer, and typical early season roughness.

Overall the D was average to mediocre. The Hogs surrendered 1.00 points per possession.  Against a mid-major anything under 0.95 or so is a passing grade. The strength was forcing TOs, but the Hogs were slightly below average on the defensive glass for the system.  SH St. rebounded 40% of their misses.  In this system 35%- would be good, over 40% is giving up too much.  However, getting the TOs without fouling was quite impressive with this many new faces getting major minutes.  The Hogs gave up higher FG percentages than Coach Anderson would  like to see.  The rotations, not surprisingly at this point in the season, are probably a work in progress.  SH St.'s effective FG percentage was 53%, which was mediocre from a defensive performance point of view.

The O was a little better.  The Hogs scored 1.07 points per possession.  About 1.05 or so is the bar for a passing grade against this competition.  The very solid work by the frontline was encouraging.  Three forwards scoring in double figures and shooting 50%+ was unheard of last season.  Coty Clarke had a fine debut.  In a reversal of fortune compared to last season, the lack of production from the perimeter was a drag on the offensive efficiency.  Madden's 4 FGs on 6 attempts and some FTs from Wade was about it for guard scoring.  Obviously Young's absence was a factor here.  Wade, Scott, and Bell are capable of providing much more scoring punch than they did tonight.  Getting to the line and converting at a fantastic rate largely made up for a dismal night from the arc.  Likewise, the ballhandling was outstanding with only 9 TOs and 16 assists on 22 FGs. However, the offensive rebounding was almost nonexistent. 

My guess is Coach Anderson found lots of positives as well as teaching opportunities with this performance. In summary, based on only the numbers, the D is a work in progress.  That isn't surprising considering the youth and new faces.  This system isn't conducive to coming out of the gate as a well oiled defensive machine in the first game.  The offensive performance was encouraging since guard production isn't expected to be a weakness.

 
« Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 01:57:12 pm by Niels Boar »
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Something over there

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Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2012, 12:23:54 am »

Very good write up,  I'm impressed!  I would love it if you analyzed each game like this.  I know that is a lot to ask but I thourghly enjoyed this.  What are your predictions for the rest of the season?

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Fayettechill14

Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2012, 12:53:17 am »

Lots of other good teams struggled today.

Kentucky survived a mediocre Maryland, 72-69. Scored 23 in the 2nd half.
#25 FSU was downed by South Alabama.
Mississippi State lost to Troy.
Tennessee won by single digits.

I'm not worried about the close game because I saw opportunities for us to have won by 20. We need to have better games against Longview and FAMU before we get to the meat of the OOC schedule.
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The Boar War

Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2012, 08:50:35 am »

Nice write up. 
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Rooster Hogburn

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Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2012, 09:01:39 am »

The rebound margin was unfavorable, which isn't a great way to start. I'll take the W.
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The Hog

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Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2012, 09:14:23 am »

One thing I have noticed is that in early season action coaches play deep into their bench.  They are getting ready for their conference games and working out their rotations for team chemistry.  The main thing is not to lose but not a total disaster if it happens.

I watched some of the Kentucky game and at times you see the 5 star performances out of the team and at times total confusion and turnovers.

Tennessee looks lost with Maymon.  He is the chemistry that makes the team go.  Same as Kentucky, great at times and TO city in stretches.  Looks like they have some kids that can shoot.
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poloprince

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Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2012, 10:59:18 am »

Remove Rickey Scott, insert BJ Young.
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jry04

Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2012, 11:04:41 am »

Lots of other good teams struggled today.

Kentucky survived a mediocre Maryland, 72-69. Scored 23 in the 2nd half.
#25 FSU was downed by South Alabama.
Mississippi State lost to Troy.
Tennessee won by single digits.

I'm not worried about the close game because I saw opportunities for us to have won by 20. We need to have better games against Longview and FAMU before we get to the meat of the OOC schedule.
MSU may not win a SEC game. They aren't a good team. UGA only won by 6 against Jacksonville. They are suppose to be much improved with Caldwell-Pope back.
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hardwoodhog3306

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Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2012, 12:55:28 pm »

On this team the guards are going to have to be BIG rebounders. Mike talked a lot about this in press conf, and mentioned BJ specifically. be glad to have 11back out there after the suspension.
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choppedporkextrasauce

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Re: Glancing at the stats
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2012, 04:31:27 pm »

Remove Rickey Scott, insert BJ Young.

no, bring Young off the bench like last year, instant offense and a change up for the opponent.
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