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Author Topic: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried  (Read 928 times)

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Biggus Piggus

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Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« on: January 19, 2010, 10:27:38 am »

The Gators take too many threes, rely heavily on offensive rebounding to save them, and are soft in the paint.  Arkansas must own the defensive boards (which means the guards doing some rebounding on those long caroms) and get the ball inside to Powell and Washington.

Florida has some really admirable qualities.  They get a lot of steals, get a lot of "unforced" turnovers because their quickness makes opponents a little frantic.  The Gators' perimeter defense is really nasty.  They don't foul much.

The team has been taken over by 6-2 freshman Kenny Boynton, who dominates the basketball.  After a poor start to the season, he's shooting 38% from 3pt range in SEC play.  He and 5-8 Erving Walker play most of the guard minutes for the Gators (like Fortson and Clarke for Arkansas).  Walker is shooting just over 50% from 3pt range (SEC only), and he also leads Florida in assists.  Walker has zero drive/inside game, while Boynton doesn't add a lot there.

Florida plays a traditionally big lineup with a 6-10 center and 6-8 forwards.  Alex Tyus and Chandler Parsons are the forwards.  Tyus is a decent all-around power forward.  Parsons is a good inside-out scorer who may be trouble for the Hogs.

Vanderbilt offset a big disadvantage in treys by outscoring the Gators 48-32 from 2pt range and 26-16 at the line.  Arkansas has to follow the same strategy to beat Florida, win the inside game and make them foul.  Center Vernon Macklin commits some dumb fouls.  Vandy also handled the basketball exceptionally well--the Gators will score off turnovers.

Florida is limited on the bench, as they have been ever since their back-to-back title run ended.  Combo forward Dan Werner has lost his offensive game.  Freshman Erik Murphy, a lean 6-9 forward, will probably be good someday, but he's being asked to play backup center.  Swingman Ray Shipman has been horrible.

This game can be another win.
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razobak

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2010, 10:34:36 am »

Nice analysis Biggus.  I certainly hope that the Hogs can make it 2 in a row and get above .500 in SEC play for the first time in forever.  If we play like we did the second halves against Bama and Miss St then we've got a good shot.
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thirtythree

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2010, 10:35:24 am »

As always, great job.
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TRUHOG718

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2010, 11:04:47 am »

+1... & 15 minutes from now +1 again my friend.
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Niels Boar

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2010, 11:35:49 am »

Macklin is the x-factor for them against us.  UF is only #233 in the nation in block% even though he and Tyus are nationally ranked in blocks on Pomeroy.  When he goes out, they should be very vulnerable to Washington, Powell, and Fortson in the lane.  Macklin is also by far their best offensive rebounder.  He and Tyus have made 46% of their 2's. Their matchups look considerably worse if he can't stay on the floor.  The other problem is letting their erratic guards get comfortable shooting treys.  UF is usually either very good or very bad from the perimeter.

UF basically has 2 small guards that play 80% of the available minutes, but they manage to defend the perimeter very well.  Maybe the long #3 helps in that regard.  It makes it difficult to explain how we are almost last in the nation and 10th in SEC games in that area.  Our penchant for letting teams have good days from the perimeter makes me nervous in this one.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2010, 11:38:00 am by Niels Boar »
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2010, 11:40:45 am »

Yes, the Gators can be outstanding or awful shooting, and given that the Hogs don't put much emphasis on defending treys they'll probably be great against us.  So we have to win it inside.
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chiefsfan

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2010, 12:01:12 pm »

Macklin is the x-factor for them against us.  UF is only #233 in the nation in block% even though he and Tyus are nationally ranked in blocks on Pomeroy.  When he goes out, they should be very vulnerable to Washington, Powell, and Fortson in the lane.  Macklin is also by far their best offensive rebounder.  He and Tyus have made 46% of their 2's. Their matchups look considerably worse if he can't stay on the floor.  The other problem is letting their erratic guards get comfortable shooting treys.  UF is usually either very good or very bad from the perimeter.

UF basically has 2 small guards that play 80% of the available minutes, but they manage to defend the perimeter very well.  Maybe the long #3 helps in that regard.  It makes it difficult to explain how we are almost last in the nation and 10th in SEC games in that area.  Our penchant for letting teams have good days from the perimeter makes me nervous in this one.

Florida is pretty much like Arkansas twin in terms of lineup.  2 short guards and then the big men
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Niels Boar

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2010, 12:14:25 pm »

I don't think we can give up as many treys as Vandy did.  We probably aren't winning the FT line by double digits.  Vandy is leading the SEC in conference play in FTAs by a wide margin at about 32 per game, twice as many as we are drawing.  Plus, UF almost never fouls that often.  It was their season high.  Only one other time (31 against Syracuse) has UF surrendered more than 20 FTAs.  UK drew only 13. Maybe Fortson will get some calls at home, though.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2010, 12:21:52 pm by Niels Boar »
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Niels Boar

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2010, 01:45:07 pm »

Florida is pretty much like Arkansas twin in terms of lineup.  2 short guards and then the big men

In fairness the exception is a really long player at the #3.  Parsons and Werner are 6' 8''. That could help with closing out on perimeter players. 

We emphasize interior D, which is fine, but personally I don't think you can be absolutely terrible at defending the arc and win consistently in college BB these days.  Your O can't falter at all.  There are some good teams like Purdue and Notre Dame that are ranked in the 270's in defending the arc.  Notre Dame is a terrible defensive team, though, and wins with O.  Purdue forces lots of TOs and currently has a losing record in the Big 10.  Most teams giving up 37%+ that are in reputable conferences like Arkansas, Auburn, UMass, and UCLA are hovering around .500 on the season.
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UltimateHog

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2010, 10:39:44 pm »

Time for us to step up on National TV, ESPN no less.

This isn't an ESPN2 semi-national game, this is the big show, the big main network everyone tunes to nightly to see whats on.

Time for us to make a national statement, we're healthy and 100%, and a legit shot at the SEC West crown.

I hope we at least put 15K in the seats, sad if we don't.
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Kevin

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2010, 09:40:02 am »

will billy put a freshman on clarke?  freshman traditionally get lost on defense or will he go with a combination of parsons & shipman.

got to keep walker in front of us.  find a way to control the boards, execute on offense, florida has never been a consistant half court defensive team.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2010, 09:49:32 am »

I wouldn't be surprised to see Walker and Shipman on Clarke.  Shipman is their designated hatchet man.
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Kevin

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Re: Florida matchup is pretty cut and dried
« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2010, 10:22:33 am »

if walker, clarke can finally shot over the top of somebody.
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