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Author Topic: Trade input....  (Read 1854 times)

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WindyCityHog

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Trade input....
« on: March 24, 2005, 11:12:24 am »

In a Yahoo head-to-head league....

I traded Adam Dunn and Miguel Batista
             for
Kevin Mench, Jeremy Bonderman, and Justin Morneau.

Any thoughts?  I think Mench, Bonderman, and Morneau are on their way to breakout seasons....at least that's my hope.

Bonderman has been sizzling in spring (and he's only 22).  Mench is allegedly going to get 500+ ABs this year, and Morneau is supposed to bat clean-up for the Twins, and he's got a sweet lefthanded swing....

Dunn MAY lead the league in HRs, and some are saying he'll steal 25 bases this year as well.....Batista will close for the Blue Jays (for how long...who knows?).....
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Razorback Jedi

Re: Trade input....
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2005, 11:34:50 am »

Good trade for you.

Batista will not be the closer for long (no way Dunn takes 25 bags, no way). Mench and Morneau can both mash. Well done.
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Porkahontas

Re: Trade input....
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2005, 12:32:57 pm »

Good trade for you.

Dunn is a windmill. His average will drag your entire team down.

Bonderman and Morneau are both expected to have big years. Mench & Batista is a wash.

Way to clean up on that one.
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jayhog

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2005, 02:06:27 pm »

Well, I'm the one that got "cleaned up" on.  Perhaps I should just stay away from baseball.  I always end up on the wrong end of every trade I make.  I really do like my team though.  Helton, Chavez, Matsui, Lee, Beltran, and now Dunn make for some pretty good offense.  Add Brett Boone, Pedro Feliz, and Garrett Anderson to the mix, and if they perform at all, then it gets really good.  Oh well.  I am cursed in baseball.  That's a fact. 

Dirty
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razormatt

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2005, 04:28:06 pm »

Disagree with everybody that says Chicago cleaned up.

I think Jayhawg did OK in that trade, and here's why:

1) Mench will still struggle to get the AB's to be a fantasy stud.  He might get 500, but I'll believe it when I see it.
2) Morneau has less than 500 AB's against major league pitching, and with his long lefthanded swing (see Shawn Green), major league pitchers WILL find a hole in it and exploit it, ESPECIALLY considering he will have the protection equivalent to an angry boy scout with a bb gun. 

With Dunn, you know the worst you're going to get:  100 Runs, 35 HR, 100 RBI, a .260 AVG and if it's in a league where OBP/SLG/or OPS count, somewhere in the top 10% of all ML.

The scary thing about Dunn is that he's still a fairly young guy too.  He flat will take a walk, meaning he really does have the patience and rarely swings at pitches that aren't balls.  Sooner or later, he'll figure out how to cut down SOME with 2 strikes on him and be an absolute monster.

I consider Dunn the 2nd most talented young (under 27) hitter in the NL.  Pujols is 1, Jose Reyes is 3.  Dunn just oozes with talent and unlike the other two, he IS GOING to produce.  They other two MIGHT produce.

Trading something that MIGHT happen for things that WILL happen...well, that's a good deal in my mind.

You're offense will do some damage, DirtyPigs, but see what happens if all of your offense is hot at the same time:  trade the hottest one that you don't think will keep it up for a stud starter.
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big dread hog

whomever gets the single best player
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2005, 09:12:02 am »

usually benefits the most in a trade. I think Morneau will have big problems, lots of medical issues and a big hole in his swing which was evident over the last half of the yr. His contact and eye % were way down. Dunn can get as many SB's as he wants, could easily be 30 and will not be less than 20. Only his BA is not top tier. K's do not mpact negatively, so he is far and away the best player in the trade. Batista is a joke,  worst player in the trade so does it balance out? I  cannot find a single stat or LIMA stat to justify his closer status. His ERA and WHIP will hurt worse than Dunn's low BA. Bonderman is a Tiger, nuff said.  There is a reason all the real talented young pitchers are on bad teams, they got drafted high and the teams are still bad. Bonderman is a help, but will be a breakout in 06 not this yr. His strand rate was phenomenal second half last yr, but miserable first half so he looks like a hot property who will either continue and upward trend or regress to the mean. Bonderman >>>> Batista in pitching talent.

Dunn>>> Mench=Morneau in everyday player talent. Morneau will come on after he recovers fully, but he could be anothe lost to injury significant portion of the yr. Twin specialty, injury plagued but talented players.

Mench is a potential stud, but so is Ellison who is just waiting to find time in TX. Hidalgo will have a better yr than Mench. Hidalgo is playing for money. I like Mench, but he will be a spot player and not an everyday given. I think it is much easier to find numbers similar to what Morneau, Mench and Batista will generate than to find Dunn numbers. Dunn will win his head to head position match up more often than will Morneau or Mench or Batista.

It is a single star quality vs good qantity trade.  It is very equitable and pretty equivalent in numbers generated for positions occupied.

Batista will have an ERA greater than 4.6 and less than 5 with a WHIP approaching 1.5, could get 30 saves but he is on a short leash and Toronto had already made the move to remake him a starter which has never fared well either. Getting old with loss of control is not a good predictor to be a closer except for BJ's and Devil Rays and the like. Gaining one column to lose in two is real iffy.
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Butkus51

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2005, 10:53:36 pm »

Hey guys, nice to be aboard. If you get K's awarded in your league Bonderman is going to be a solid pitcher on your team. He is not going to be a great wins guy this year, but he'll approach 180 K's this year.
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WindyCityHog

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2005, 05:49:06 pm »

Welcome Butkus....sorry it took so long to respond.

How about another trade......Carl Crawford for Miguel Cabrera?  Trade is done....
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Porkahontas

Re: Trade input....
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2005, 09:38:05 pm »

Welcome Butkus....sorry it took so long to respond.

How about another trade......Carl Crawford for Miguel Cabrera? Trade is done....

Pretty much a dead even trade in my eyes.

I guess it'd depend on what your needs were. If you had plenty of stolen bases but needed HR's and RBI's, then it's a good trade. If Crawford is your only SB threat and you have a stable full of HR hitters and big RBI guys, then it might not be the best move.

Personally, I'd rather have Crawford over Cabrera, though Cabrera should benefit from a lineup that features Pierre, Castillo, Lowell, LoDuca, and now Delgado, among others. Crawford is poised to really break out this year and if the guys behind him can do anything at all, he could end up having close to 100 SB's.
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Oklahawg

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2005, 11:00:45 pm »

All things being equal, Crawford is much more valuable because of his steals. Cabrera may ultimately earn as much, or more, in value but his commodities are more easily acquired than Crawford's.
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WindyCityHog

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2005, 12:44:18 am »

I've pretty much conceded the steals department......and if it wasn't for Crawford's SB potential, he wouldn't be ranked so highly....IMHO, SBs are vastly overrated....especailly when that player is on a crappy team, as Crawford is.  I'll take my chances with Cabrera in the HR, RBI, and OPS stats....the runs will be about even, along with AVG.......I look at it as 3-2-1 in the stat categories every week, with Cabrera coming out on top...
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Porkahontas

Re: Trade input....
« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2005, 03:43:09 pm »

I've pretty much conceded the steals department......and if it wasn't for Crawford's SB potential, he wouldn't be ranked so highly....IMHO, SBs are vastly overrated....especailly when that player is on a crappy team, as Crawford is. I'll take my chances with Cabrera in the HR, RBI, and OPS stats....the runs will be about even, along with AVG.......I look at it as 3-2-1 in the stat categories every week, with Cabrera coming out on top...

That's true.

While Crawford could almost single-handedly win the stolen base department for you, it's not likely he'll get you a ton of runs or a super high average simply because he plays for a team that is weak offensively overall.

Cabrera may get a lot of numbers in a lot of categories, depending on how Delgado fits in and if Lowell can continue the pace he's on. Cabrera's assets are pretty easily found with other outfielders but he brings a good combination that might take a couple of players to equal.

They're both darn good players and definitely belong in the top 15 overall. It's pretty much all about what you want to try to dominate in as far as categories are concerned, though Crawford may make a 7 or 8 place difference in stolen bases by himself and provide that category to balance the others somewhat.
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razormatt

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2005, 04:12:29 pm »

In a Rotisserie league, Crawford is more valuable.

In a head to head league, Cabrera is more valuable.

Pretty simple.
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Razorback Jedi

Re: Trade input....
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2005, 10:08:49 am »

I'd rather have MCab in most all standard leagues; H2H or Roto.
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razormatt

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Re: Trade input....
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2005, 10:18:29 am »

OH me too.

But punting a category, such as SB's in a rotisserie league in order to gain one position in the other 4 (say Crawford BY HIMSELF will give you no worse than a 6th place finish in SB's in a 12 team league), and you're on pace to finish 4th in R, HR, RBI, and BA with him.

Trading him for a Cabrera type of (Lots of OF do what Cabrera does) and it gets you a 11th place finish in SB's and remain 4th in R and BA and climb to 3rd in HR and RBI....well, you're coming out behind.

IN a head to head league, I just want to win more than half the categories every week.  The "experts" at ESPN and Yahoo and CBS and wherever else will tell you NOT to punt a category, but I disagree.  Sure, SB's and Saves are flaky at best and often 3-4 per week in either or both of those categories will win it.  But keeping a SB freak on the daily active roster IN HOPES that he has a nice game (70 SB for the year is ~2 per week) and helps you win SB's isn't worth the risk that NOT playing Miguel Cabrera at the roster spot will bring you.

In a head-to-head league, I'm just more than happy punting a category or two...it don't bother me in the least.  As long as punting one category gives me that much more of a chance to "guarantee" a victory in one or two other categories, I'll do it every time.
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