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Author Topic: My August predictions/analysis of 2018-19 were not quite spot-on, but close  (Read 2217 times)

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Kevin McPherson

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First impressions ...

The non-con is interesting, not great but not anemic, either ...

* Texas in Armed Forces Classic at neutral site (El Paso) on ESPN to start the season on Nov. 9 ... this is actually about 3 days later than the official start date for the 2018-19 season ... gives a team with 8 new faces a chance to get a little more practice time, but would you rather have a home game against a Texas State first? As it turned out, the Hogs had their chances against a team expected to win.
* Road games against Colorado State (December 5) and Texas Tech (Big XII-SEC Challenge on January 26) ... is a split too much to ask? Hogs did get a split, honestly did not think they'd outplay TTech with a chance to win, but that is what happened in that game, IMO.
* Home games against Indiana (Nov. 18), Western Kentucky (Dec. 8th), and Georgia Tech (Dec. 19) ... if Hogs can take at least 2 of those 3, that's good for a young team. All of those games went to the wire -- I expected that, it's why I lumped these games together. Arkansas could have gone anywhere from 3-0 to 0-3, and no doubt not at least going 2-1 in these games has played a part in the Hogs being just off the Bubble right now.
* Texas-San Antonio in NLR on Dec. 15 ... no TV, no marquee name, no surprise ... expected W
* UC Davis, Montana State, UT Arlington, Florida International, Texas State, and Austin Peay all at home in Nov and Dec ... can Hogs sweep these games (plus UTSA in NLR)? Yes they did sweep, and a couple of those games (TXSt and Austin Peay) were close.

SEC slate is brutal ...

* Home-and-away against Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Vanderbilt ... a split seems doable, anything better would be gravy IMO ... Hogs went 6-4 in these games, splitting with everbody except getting the 2-0 sweep against a Vandy team that lost its best player the first 5 games into the season. Only Ole Miss got a blowout win out of this group with losses against TA&M, Mizzou, and LSU all there for the taking. Most of those teams could have won close games against the Hogs that they lost, but it shook out in the end about how I expected.
* Florida at home on Jan. 9, and its the first time since the 2013-14 season that Arkansas won't play in Gainesville ... Hogs finally broke thru at SECT to snap an 8-game losing streak to the Gators, but an early conference game against a brand-new Hogs' backcourt makes me think the edge should go to Florida ... played out just about like I thought it would = the more veteran team doing just enough to win ... biggest difference in this game was the FT line, where the Hogs shot more but made the same as FLA (15) while KA was awful from the field but manufactured 11-of-12 at the line by baiting the Hogs' over-aggressive backcourt defenders into contact.
* Road games against Tennessee, Auburn, and Kentucky just feel like losses right now, probably lean the same regarding the road game at SCar, although that's early February and Arkansas will have half the SEC slate behind them, so maybe experienced enough to win on the road in the SEC by then? Hogs went 0-4 on the road against these teams -- teams that all finished in the Top 5 of the league. Arkansas did not get a home game against any of those teams, but had chances to beat both KY and SCar yet simply did not get it done.
* Home games against Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama are winnable, but if you ask me now I'd guess 2-1 would be best-case scenario ... Hogs indeed went 2-1 in these games.

Not having seen this team play yet, let alone get practice reports, if I had to call it today just looking at the sked I'd predict 17-14 (8-10 SEC) or 18-13 (9-9 SEC) ... if the latter happens, Arkansas could be on the NCAAT bubble going into SECT. I do think if Arkansas had won just one more game they'd be on the NCAAT Bubble today, and two more and they're likely projected in. 18 games that were within one- or two-possession margins in the final two minutes, and the Hogs were 8-10 in those games. Flip that to 10-8, and this team might have already punched its ticket.

This ^^^^^ was my post on August 30th, 2018, the day the Hoop Hogs' final schedule for 2018-19 was announced (it can be found in a thread pinned at the top of JB) ... what I have done today is add comments in bold ^^^^^ to address what actually happened versus what I was projecting at that time ... I almost nailed it, and really the record is about what most said would happen in 2018-19 with so many new faces and question marks.



Smithian


I said early in season I'd be pleased with NIT. I want more. Am frustrated at some missed opportunities, but other good things have happened.

Barring a mass exodus this offseason, I'll feel better about this program than I did at beginning of the season.

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Hawg Red


I’d said we’d contend for the NCAA tournament but likely an NIT. I nailed it but was hoping I’d be wrong and the season would be satisfying. I’ve been consistently let down since that embarrassing Butler loss. First that loss and now we likely miss the tournament with one of the weakest bubbles in some time.

Hawg Red


I said early in season I'd be pleased with NIT. I want more. Am frustrated at some missed opportunities, but other good things have happened.

Barring a mass exodus this offseason, I'll feel better about this program than I did at beginning of the season.

Interesting.
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ErieHog

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I went higher than that,  based on the idea of not having large stretches of conference play turn into wastelands.

Once the season got rolling, I dropped my expectations a fair amount, though they are closing slightly more like I originally thought they would.      This has been the longest season in memory, and it isn't over yet.

Atlhogfan1

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I had us at a min of 19 wins. 
IU was a little short handed. GT and WKU probably should have both been wins but you can excuse a bad game. Colorado St was awful.

Got to play 7 games against the worst 4 teams in the conference. 5 of 8 conf wins from this group.

Only one game vs Tenn, UK, AU and Miss St granted only MSU at home.  0-4.

Expected at least 10-3 and 9-9 in SEC based on our schedule.  GT, WK, @ Mizzou, A&M all lost opportunities. 
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bosshawg33

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Great prediction Kevin, you were pretty much spot on. Only thing I would take exception to is the pre-season statement “SEC slate is brutal”...not at all, in fact, probably the easiest set-up in the league. Only had to face TN & Kentucky once, drew 3 good but not great opponents at home only (Bama, FL, MSU) had some gimme home & homes (Vandy, A&M, Mizzou) and even with that setup, couldn’t cash in. With today’s unbalanced schedules, all 8-10 SEC records are not created equal, and given this slate, ours is particularly unimpressive.
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Smithian


Interesting.
I was ready for a breakup with the current staff after this past offseason. Said it many times and will say it again; this team is better than I thought. There is actually interesting talent and you can see how the pieces will fit together. They're actually out hustling on the recruiting trail. I have my suspicions what caused this upkick, but whatever it is has worked. Hope it isn't too late to save this staff because I do like them a whole lot.
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Kevin McPherson

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I had us at a min of 19 wins. 
IU was a little short handed. GT and WKU probably should have both been wins but you can excuse a bad game. Colorado St was awful.

Got to play 7 games against the worst 4 teams in the conference. 5 of 8 conf wins from this group.

Only one game vs Tenn, UK, AU and Miss St granted only MSU at home.  0-4.

Expected at least 10-3 and 9-9 in SEC based on our schedule.  GT, WK, @ Mizzou, A&M all lost opportunities.

Great prediction Kevin, you were pretty much spot on. Only thing I would take exception to is the pre-season statement “SEC slate is brutal”...not at all, in fact, probably the easiest set-up in the league. Only had to face TN & Kentucky once, drew 3 good but not great opponents at home only (Bama, FL, MSU) had some gimme home & homes (Vandy, A&M, Mizzou) and even with that setup, couldn’t cash in. With today’s unbalanced schedules, all 8-10 SEC records are not created equal, and given this slate, ours is particularly unimpressive.


C'mon guys, it's all ball bearings now. Perhaps you need a refresher course.

You're forgetting that going into the season Missouri was ranked and Vandy projected to Dance -- both lost their best players (lottery picks or 1st-rounders) early. LSU was projected NCAAT. Those 3 home-and-aways were legit, getting FL early was a problem for a young team and I explained that in August (not now to make the projection fit), and not getting return home games against KY, TN, Auburn -- ALL of that is why I thought that slate was brutal for a young, inexperienced team back in August.

No, not all 8-10 finishes are the same, but not all SEC teams had the youngest / least-experienced team in college basketball, either. Theory of relativity, Holmeses!

So Mizzou and Vandy were down relative to expectations because of those injuries, but OM was 7 spots better than projected in the preseason (honestly, who saw that coming?) ... in the beginning, I figured a split in those home-and-aways and in the end / what actually happened the Hogs went 6-4 and I attribute that to 2 teams being down from expectations and one being up.

Ultimately, it fell just about like I thought it would.

bosshawg33

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C'mon guys, it's all ball bearings now. Perhaps you need a refresher course.

You're forgetting that going into the season Missouri was ranked and Vandy projected to Dance -- both lost their best players (lottery picks or 1st-rounders) early. LSU was projected NCAAT. Those 3 home-and-aways were legit, getting FL early was a problem for a young team and I explained that in August (not now to make the projection fit), and not getting return home games against KY, TN, Auburn -- ALL of that is why I thought that slate was brutal for a young, inexperienced team back in August.

No, not all 8-10 finishes are the same, but not all SEC teams had the youngest / least-experinced team in college basketball, either. Theory of relativity, Holmeses!

So Mizzou and Vandy were down relative to expectations because of those injuries, but OM was 7 spots better than projected in the preseason (honestly, who saw that coming?) ... in the beginning, I figured a split in those home-and-aways and in the end / what actually happened the Hogs went 6-4 and I attribute that to 2 teams being down from expectations and one being up.

Ultimately, it fell just about like I thought it would.

I should have been more clear, I have no issues with your preseason take.

Should have said, in hindsight, our SEC schedule was extremely easy, relative to others in the league. Probably THE easiest. And we didn’t cash in on that setup. Our 8–10 is a very weak 8-10, given that slate.
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Kevin McPherson

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I should have been more clear, I have no issues with your preseason take.

Should have said, in hindsight, our SEC schedule was extremely easy, relative to others in the league. Probably THE easiest. And we didn’t cash in on that setup. Our 8–10 is a very weak 8-10, given that slate.

Somewhat disagree. I think the only team that was truly weak was Vandy, and the 'Dores put scares into a lot of SEC teams. TA&M beating K-State, sweeping Bama, and winning at Mizzou and Arkansas; Georgia beating Texas and winning at Florida; Missouri was often competitive and finished its last 5 games blowing out both SCar and at Georgia while losing to FL and OM by a combined 9 pts; Arkansas going on the road and beating LSU, while taking LSU to OT in Fayetteville and taking both TTech and KY to the brink on the road ... I think if you look at the bottom half of the SEC, it's strong regardless of poor records ... the Hogs lost some games they should have won, sure, but as young and inexperienced as they were they also were right there in so many close games in a damn good league where most teams had the experience card ... being the worst FT shooting team in the league only fed into the near-miss losses on top of inexperience.

The schedule was never favorable, and the relativity of having an easier path than other SEC teams in league play is not complete without also factoring in youth and inexperience as well as when you catch teams.

gogamer

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Funny....
We were all thinking about this range of outcome before the season started, and then the first 7 games hit us.  Texas was THAT CLOSE (and we thought they were a top 25 team at the time), then we won 6 in a row.  Not that these wins were a big deal, but we had great spacing, and sharing the ball with Gafford doing his thing.  WE ALL got sucked into thinking these guys are way better than we thought they were going to be!  WE'RE NCAA BOUND!

Then reality set in.  The young hogs started finding their ways of life on and off the court (or not finding their ways).  That's when things started to fall apart (or started to look like what we expected before the season began).

So here we are, right where we thought we would be..... and we want to burn the entire program down because it's now not what we are expecting, after it is what we were expecting.

Wait what?

 

bosshawg33

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Somewhat disagree. I think the only team that was truly weak was Vandy, and the 'Dores put scares into a lot of SEC teams. TA&M beating K-State, sweeping Bama, and winning at Mizzou and Arkansas; Georgia beating Texas and winning at Florida; Missouri was often competitive and finished its last 5 games blowing out both SCar and at Georgia while losing to FL and OM by a combined 9 pts; Arkansas going on the road and beating LSU, while taking LSU to OT in Fayetteville and taking both TTech and KY to the brink on the road ... I think if you look at the bottom half of the SEC, it's strong regardless of poor records ... the Hogs lost some games they should have won, sure, but as young and inexperienced as they were they also were right there in so many close games in a damn good league where most teams had the experience card ... being the worst FT shooting team in the league only fed into the near-miss losses on top of inexperience.

The schedule was never favorable, and the relativity of having an easier path than other SEC teams in league play is not complete without also factoring in youth and inexperience as well as when you catch teams.

Splitting hairs at this point, but I’m not saying the bottom of the league isn’t capable of beating someone (ex-Vandy) on occasion. I’m very simply saying we had the easiest SEC schedule in the league. Sure, for example, Missouri can beat somebody. Would much rather play them twice then Tennessee, for example.

It’s possible to have a pretty impressive 8-10 SEC record this year. For example, in a hypothetical situation (obviously different schedule) where we split with TN, MSU, LSU & Auburn... beat UGA, A&M, Mizzou, Vandy... lost to USC, Ole Miss, Bama & FL... and swept by Kentucky... that would be a much more impressive 8-10.

I’m making zero statements about why we won or lost games, I’m simply saying just because the SEC is strong, doesn’t mean our 8–10 is impressive. It’s the weakest possible flavor of 8-10 this year, given our mix of opponents and results.
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Kevin McPherson

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Splitting hairs at this point, but I’m not saying the bottom of the league isn’t capable of beating someone (ex-Vandy) on occasion. I’m very simply saying we had the easiest SEC schedule in the league. Sure, for example, Missouri can beat somebody. Would much rather play them twice then Tennessee, for example.

It’s possible to have a pretty impressive 8-10 SEC record this year. For example, in a hypothetical situation (obviously different schedule) where we split with TN, MSU, LSU & Auburn... beat UGA, A&M, Mizzou, Vandy... lost to USC, Ole Miss, Bama & FL... and swept by Kentucky... that would be a much more impressive 8-10.

I’m making zero statements about why we won or lost games, I’m simply saying just because the SEC is strong, doesn’t mean our 8–10 is impressive. It’s the weakest possible flavor of 8-10 this year, given our mix of opponents and results.

I didn't misunderstand your point, just saying I somewhat disagree because I think you have to factor in other things to make valid comparisons. Again, Arkansas was also the youngest, most inexperienced team in the SEC. No, the Hogs didn't get some of the top teams twice, but they sure as hell caught all of the Top 5 seeds in the SECT on the road with only one of those teams playing in Fayetteville (LSU) -- that's 6 games against the best of the league and only 1 is at home. Given that there truly were no weak teams outside of Vandy, I don't think there is a smoking-gun weak league schedule once you factor in relative comparisons (i.e. young/inexperienced team ... Florida and MSSt had tougher home-and-away slates, but those teams also were veteran teams that came into the season with higher expectations than Arkansas). That belongs in the realitivity discussion.

If U simply want to point to SOS and how analytics would compare schedules just on face value, then there is no discussion here because I'll never try making the point that playing Missouri twice is as tough as playing TN twice. BUT, we're also comparing expectations, where you play, and when you play, and that adds complexity to the conversation. There was no weak league slate, it can certainly be argued that some were tougher than others, but leaving out the expectations based on what teams brought back and put on the floor, matchups, and when and where you catch a team ALL matter when talking about this. 

bosshawg33

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I didn't misunderstand your point, just saying I somewhat disagree because I think you have to factor in other things to make valid comparisons. Again, Arkansas was also the youngest, most inexperienced team in the SEC. No, the Hogs didn't get some of the top teams twice, but they sure as hell caught all of the Top 5 seeds in the SECT on the road with only one of those teams playing in Fayetteville (LSU) -- that's 6 games against the best of the league and only 1 is at home. Given that there truly were no weak teams outside of Vandy, I don't think there is a smoking-gun weak league schedule once you factor in relative comparisons (i.e. young/inexperienced team ... Florida and MSSt had tougher home-and-away slates, but those teams also were veteran teams that came into the season with higher expectations than Arkansas). That belongs in the realitivity discussion.

If U simply want to point to SOS and how analytics would compare schedules just on face value, then there is no discussion here because I'll never try making the point that playing Missouri twice is as tough as playing TN twice. BUT, we're also comparing expectations, where you play, and when you play, and that adds complexity to the conversation. There was no weak league slate, it can certainly be argued that some were tougher than others, but leaving out the expectations based on what teams brought back and put on the floor, matchups, and when and where you catch a team ALL matter when talking about this.

I’m only comparing SEC slates to each other (relative comparison) so the statement “there is no weak slate” is basically irrelevant (absolute comparison). Somebodys slate has to be the weakest in a relative comparison within the SEC, and this year, it’s ours. Which is the reason why our mix of 8–10 isn’t impressive, which is a significant factor in why we’re not even listed on the bubble. If we had the same 8–10 record with the mix of W/L I described above instead, we would be in the tourney in my opinion.

I also disagree that A&M, Missouri, & Georgia are not “weak teams”. Just because they can upset a few people in a year doesn’t mean they’re not weak, especially on a relative basis within the conference. True, when you catch them does play a role, I’m not disputing that point.

Somewhat off topic but worth mentioning, I didn’t view getting Kentucky & TN on the road only as negatives. We could’ve played TN on the moon, we weren’t beating them anywhere. I felt the same about Kentucky pre-season, although I was wrong there as we could’ve def beat them in Bud (and Rupp, ironically). Not burning a home game on those 2 I viewed as freeing us up to take care of business at home (already conceded wrong on UK) against more winnable opponents, while not sacrificing any bad L’s. We didn’t, 4 times.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 01:13:04 am by bosshawg33 »
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ShadowHawg

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We did't have the easiest schedule at all.

We had to go to Ole MIss while they were hot. And a lot of our tough games were front loaded in the schedule which is not advantageous for a young team.
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Kevin McPherson

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I’m only comparing SEC slates to each other (relative comparison) so the statement “there is no weak slate” is basically irrelevant (absolute comparison). Somebodys slate has to be the weakest in a relative comparison within the SEC, and this year, it’s ours. Which is the reason why our mix of 8–10 isn’t impressive, which is a significant factor in why we’re not even listed on the bubble. If we had the same 8–10 record with the mix of W/L I described above instead, we would be in the tourney in my opinion.

I also disagree that A&M, Missouri, & Georgia are not “weak teams”. Just because they can upset a few people in a year doesn’t mean they’re not weak, especially on a relative basis within the conference. True, when you catch them does play a role, I’m not disputing that point.

Somewhat off topic but worth mentioning, I didn’t view getting Kentucky & TN on the road only as negatives. We could’ve played TN on the moon, we weren’t beating them anywhere. I felt the same about Kentucky pre-season, although I was wrong there as we could’ve def beat them in Bud (and Rupp, ironically). Not burning a home game on those 2 I viewed as freeing us up to take care of business at home (already conceded wrong on UK) against more winnable opponents, while not sacrificing any bad L’s. We didn’t, 4 times.

Let's go at this a bit more scientifically and use some specific examples from this season, and what better examples than the two bubble teams we're been talking about ITT ... you've been saying not all 8-10s are the same, and you said Arkansas's SEC sked was "extremely easy relative to the rest of the league" ... well, that's not really the case ...

Let's start with Alabama, finished 8-10 just like the Hogs ... the Tide had home-and-away against LSU, Auburn, MSSt, TA&M, and Vandy ... just looking at that alone, it appears the Tide had a tougher league slate, right? So let's break it down ...

* Bama won 8 games = KY at home, MSSt at home, at SCar, OM at home, Georgia at home, at Missouri, Vandy twice -- that's 5 wins at home and 3 wins on the road ... Bama lost 10 games = LSU twice, Auburn twice, TA&M twice, at TN, at MSSt, Florida at home, at Arkansas -- that's 4 losses at home and 6 losses on the road.

Against the 6 SEC teams that are locks to make the SECT, Bama went 3-6 beating KY at home, MSSt at home, OM at home and losing to LSU twice, Auburn twice, at TN, and at MSSt ... that's 3-6 against the 6 SEC teams locked into the NCAAT tourney with 5 of those 9 games being played at home.

Against the 3 teams with any NCAAT at-large chances Bama went 1-2 winning at SCar (16-15, 11-7 SEC, NET in the high-70s) and losing at Arkansas (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the mid-60s) and home against Florida (17-14, 9-9 SEC, NET in the 30s)  ... and against the SEC teams with no chance of getting an at-large NCAAT bid the Tide went 4-2.

* Arkansas won 8 games = at LSU, OM at home, Bama at home, at TA&M, Missouri at home, Georgia at home, Vandy twice -- that's 5 wins at home and 3 wins on the road ... Hogs lost 10 games = at TN, at Auburn, at KY, at Missouri, at Ole Miss, at SCar, Florida at home, LSU at home, MSSt at home, TA&M at home -- that's 4 losses at home and 6 losses on the road.

Against the 6 SEC teams that are locks to make the SECT, Arkansas went 2-6 winning at LSU and against OM at home while losing at TN, at OM, at Auburn, at KY, LSU at home in OT, and MSSt at home ... that's 2-6 against the 6 SEC teams locked into the NCAAT with 3 of those 8 games being played at home.

Against the three teams with any NCAAT at-large chances Arkansas went 1-2 losing at SCar (16-15, 11-7 SEC, NET in the high-70s) and home against Florida (17-14, 9-9 SEC, NET in the 30s) while beating Alabama at home (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the mid-50s), and against the SEC teams with no chance of getting an at-large NCAAT bid the Hogs went 5-2.

SUMMARY: Bama got the tougher home-and-away slate, but only played 1 more game than Arkansas against the 6 NCAAT-lock teams in the SEC while getting 2 more games at home than Arkansas against the same lot ... Bama also had a veteran team relative to Arkansas, and the Tide had a roster with higher-rated players overall. NET/SOS reflects an edge for Bama, but all things considered it is very slim and it could be argued that Arkansas's 8-10 was more impressive given experience and expectations.

Oh wait, not done yet ... let's look at 9-9 Florida ... the Gators got home-and-away against LSU, TN, KY, Vandy, and Georgia ... much tougher SEC slate than Hogs, right?

* Florida won 9 games = at LSU in OT, Ole Miss at home in OT, at Arkansas, TA&M at home, at GA, at Bama, Mizzou at home, Vandy twice -- that's 4 wins at home and 5 wins on the road ... Florida lost 9 games = TN twice, KY twice, SCar at home, Georgia at home, LSU at home in OT, at Auburn, at MSSt -- that's 5 losses at home and 4 losses on the road.

Against the 6 SEC teams that are locks to make the SECT, the Gators went 2-7 winning at LSU in OT and against OM at home in OT while losing to TN twice, KY twice, at Auburn, at MSSt, and LSU at home in OT ... that's 2-7 against the 6 SEC teams locked into the NCAAT with 4 of those 9 games being played at home. Florida had the same amount of wins against the best of the SEC as Arkansas did -- in fact, both were close games and just like the Hogs they came on the road against LSU and at home against Ole Miss. Yes, the Gators played one more game against that lot than Arkansas did, but the Gators also got one more home game than Arkansas did against the same group.

Against the three teams with any NCAAT at-large chances Florida went 2-1 losing to SCar at home (16-15, 11-7 SEC, NET in the high-70s) while winning at Arkansas (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the 60s) and at Alabama (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the mid-50s), and against the SEC teams with no chance of getting an at-large NCAAT bid the Gators went 5-1. This is where Florida got its edge in SEC play compared to Arkansas and Bama, going 2-1 in what turned out to be head-to-head Bubble matchups while Arkansas and Bama were each 1-2, and also having one less loss against the bottom 4.

Again, more expected of a veteran Florida team with higher rated roster, but just don't see a lot of separation in terms of not only the SEC record, but also in the degrees of difficulty in the two schedules.
 
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 03:46:45 am by Kevin McPherson »
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Adam Stokes


We are right where essentially everyone thought we'd be at the beginning of the season. Before the season the majority of posters didn't want Anderson to leave. But it is always different when you have to actually experience the losses you thought you had mentally priced in.

College basketball is more about guards than big men, so even with Gafford leaving I don't think there will be any drop off next season with the bulk of our lineup getting more experienced. Just whether or not we want to keep waiting to get over the hump.

Razorod


I had us finishing somewhere between 19-12 and 17-14, so I predicted the middle number of 18-13. One off. Main disappointment this year was home record--both ooc and in conference. Actually did a bit better than I thought on the road, at least what I thought going into the season.

bosshawg33

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Let's go at this a bit more scientifically and use some specific examples from this season, and what better examples than the two bubble teams we're been talking about ITT ... you've been saying not all 8-10s are the same, and you said Arkansas's SEC sked was "extremely easy relative to the rest of the league" ... well, that's not really the case ...

Let's start with Alabama, finished 8-10 just like the Hogs ... the Tide had home-and-away against LSU, Auburn, MSSt, TA&M, and Vandy ... just looking at that alone, it appears the Tide had a tougher league slate, right? So let's break it down ...

* Bama won 8 games = KY at home, MSSt at home, at SCar, OM at home, Georgia at home, at Missouri, Vandy twice -- that's 5 wins at home and 3 wins on the road ... Bama lost 10 games = LSU twice, Auburn twice, TA&M twice, at TN, at MSSt, Florida at home, at Arkansas -- that's 4 losses at home and 6 losses on the road.

Against the 6 SEC teams that are locks to make the SECT, Bama went 3-6 beating KY at home, MSSt at home, OM at home and losing to LSU twice, Auburn twice, at TN, and at MSSt ... that's 3-6 against the 6 SEC teams locked into the NCAAT tourney with 5 of those 9 games being played at home.

Against the 3 teams with any NCAAT at-large chances Bama went 1-2 winning at SCar (16-15, 11-7 SEC, NET in the high-70s) and losing at Arkansas (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the mid-60s) and home against Florida (17-14, 9-9 SEC, NET in the 30s)  ... and against the SEC teams with no chance of getting an at-large NCAAT bid the Tide went 4-2.

* Arkansas won 8 games = at LSU, OM at home, Bama at home, at TA&M, Missouri at home, Georgia at home, Vandy twice -- that's 5 wins at home and 3 wins on the road ... Hogs lost 10 games = at TN, at Auburn, at KY, at Missouri, at Ole Miss, at SCar, Florida at home, LSU at home, MSSt at home, TA&M at home -- that's 4 losses at home and 6 losses on the road.

Against the 6 SEC teams that are locks to make the SECT, Arkansas went 2-6 winning at LSU and against OM at home while losing at TN, at OM, at Auburn, at KY, LSU at home in OT, and MSSt at home ... that's 2-6 against the 6 SEC teams locked into the NCAAT with 3 of those 8 games being played at home.

Against the three teams with any NCAAT at-large chances Arkansas went 1-2 losing at SCar (16-15, 11-7 SEC, NET in the high-70s) and home against Florida (17-14, 9-9 SEC, NET in the 30s) while beating Alabama at home (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the mid-50s), and against the SEC teams with no chance of getting an at-large NCAAT bid the Hogs went 5-2.

SUMMARY: Bama got the tougher home-and-away slate, but only played 1 more game than Arkansas against the 6 NCAAT-lock teams in the SEC while getting 2 more games at home than Arkansas against the same lot ... Bama also had a veteran team relative to Arkansas, and the Tide had a roster with higher-rated players overall. NET/SOS reflects an edge for Bama, but all things considered it is very slim and it could be argued that Arkansas's 8-10 was more impressive given experience and expectations.

Oh wait, not done yet ... let's look at 9-9 Florida ... the Gators got home-and-away against LSU, TN, KY, Vandy, and Georgia ... much tougher SEC slate than Hogs, right?

* Florida won 9 games = at LSU in OT, Ole Miss at home in OT, at Arkansas, TA&M at home, at GA, at Bama, Mizzou at home, Vandy twice -- that's 4 wins at home and 5 wins on the road ... Florida lost 9 games = TN twice, KY twice, SCar at home, Georgia at home, LSU at home in OT, at Auburn, at MSSt -- that's 5 losses at home and 4 losses on the road.

Against the 6 SEC teams that are locks to make the SECT, the Gators went 2-7 winning at LSU in OT and against OM at home in OT while losing to TN twice, KY twice, at Auburn, at MSSt, and LSU at home in OT ... that's 2-7 against the 6 SEC teams locked into the NCAAT with 4 of those 9 games being played at home. Florida had the same amount of wins against the best of the SEC as Arkansas did -- in fact, both were close games and just like the Hogs they came on the road against LSU and at home against Ole Miss. Yes, the Gators played one more game against that lot than Arkansas did, but the Gators also got one more home game than Arkansas did against the same group.

Against the three teams with any NCAAT at-large chances Florida went 2-1 losing to SCar at home (16-15, 11-7 SEC, NET in the high-70s) while winning at Arkansas (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the 60s) and at Alabama (17-14, 8-10 SEC, NET in the mid-50s), and against the SEC teams with no chance of getting an at-large NCAAT bid the Gators went 5-1. This is where Florida got its edge in SEC play compared to Arkansas and Bama, going 2-1 in what turned out to be head-to-head Bubble matchups while Arkansas and Bama were each 1-2, and also having one less loss against the bottom 4.

Again, more expected of a veteran Florida team with higher rated roster, but just don't see a lot of separation in terms of not only the SEC record, but also in the degrees of difficulty in the two schedules.

Solid breakdown. Proves our SEC schedule was easier. Maybe not “extremely easier”, but easier. Our mix of 8-10 is objectively less impressive than Bama’s 8-10, as you outline, and objectively worse than UF’s 9-9, as you also outline. This fits with my statement that ours was the easiest SEC schedule in the league. If you run that same analysis on the other 11 teams, I’m confident you would find our opponent mix was right there with the most favorable. 

I’m simply saying we had the relatively easiest SEC schedule (which analytics reflect), and we did not take advantage. Whether or not we were supposed to take advantage with this years team is a related, but separate debate.
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hobhog

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I can only assume next years prediction will be the same or a little worse. As long as predicted it makes being average OK for some?
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Atlhogfan1

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Calling this SEC schedule brutal before the season or now is stupid if you are comparing it to other SEC teams' conference schedules.  Even the biggest of homers admitted we had caught a break with the schedule.  Mizzou and Vandy did have injuries.  If not, we could very likely be playing tomorrow. 


http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=666391.0
http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=670351.0

The expectations thread:
http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=669032.150

Most of the regulars had us from 18 - low 20's wins in regular season.  Not 17. 
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razorback1829

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Calling this SEC schedule brutal before the season or now is stupid if you are comparing it to other SEC teams' conference schedules.  Even the biggest of homers admitted we had caught a break with the schedule.  Mizzou and Vandy did have injuries.  If not, we could very likely be playing tomorrow. 


http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=666391.0
http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=670351.0

The expectations thread:
http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=669032.150

Most of the regulars had us from 18 - low 20's wins in regular season.  Not 17.

The fact we never got consecutive home games this conference season on our schedule hurt this young team.
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Atlhogfan1

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The fact we never got consecutive home games this conference season on our schedule hurt this young team.

Just Florida and LSU early back to back.  I agree the alternating home and away should make it tougher to go on a streak.  But streaking is what we did in SEC play.  Losing streak - winning streak - longer losing streak - winning streak. 
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jst01


Well, Mike will almost always meet expectations.  He will not EVER beat them tho. So just keep expecting ok to decent years and you won’t be disappointed. Hes an achiever. Not really under or over-achiever.
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Grizzlyfan

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The results were not hard to predict.  I don't think anybody expected the losing streak in the middle of all it.  That makes everything looks more painful that it probably really was.

Kevin

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i had them at 16 wins

predicting this season was not  that hard

hobhog

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i had them at 16 wins

predicting this season was not  that hard

Or next years.
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hawg66


Nice work for August Kevin. Pretty dang close. The season went about like most who were posting here preseason thought it would. Which is why it was so frustrating for me when the angry mob showed up.

Kevin McPherson

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Solid breakdown. Proves our SEC schedule was easier. Maybe not “extremely easier”, but easier. Our mix of 8-10 is objectively less impressive than Bama’s 8-10, as you outline, and objectively worse than UF’s 9-9, as you also outline. This fits with my statement that ours was the easiest SEC schedule in the league. If you run that same analysis on the other 11 teams, I’m confident you would find our opponent mix was right there with the most favorable. 

I’m simply saying we had the relatively easiest SEC schedule (which analytics reflect), and we did not take advantage. Whether or not we were supposed to take advantage with this years team is a related, but separate debate.

Bro, you didn't just move the goalposts, you made them wider and lowered them closer to the ground while teeing up the ball at the goal line and waiting until the winds calmed down before sweeping your leg through the ball. You came into this debate trying to make the point that Arkansas had an extremely easier path yet didn't cash in -- those 2 things alone go to you being 1) objectively and subjectively wrong on the "extremely easier" part of your argument, and 2) subjectively incomplete by leaving out experience/expectations, when you played, and where you played -- those things matter when looking at schedule/subsequent records, too. It's not a separate discussion, it matters in THE discussion.

When I made my August predictions, ALL of those things were taken into account. I even pointed to some those specifics and variables THEN, not now to win a dumb argument. I can admit when you're wrong, at least that makes one of us.  ;)
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 01:17:35 pm by Kevin McPherson »
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Kevin McPherson

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Calling this SEC schedule brutal before the season or now is stupid if you are comparing it to other SEC teams' conference schedules.  Even the biggest of homers admitted we had caught a break with the schedule.  Mizzou and Vandy did have injuries.  If not, we could very likely be playing tomorrow. 


http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=666391.0
http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=670351.0

The expectations thread:
http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=669032.150

Most of the regulars had us from 18 - low 20's wins in regular season.  Not 17.

Arkansas's sked looked brutal when it came out in August -- that was relative to Arkansas's youth and inexperience and a strong SEC, not relative to other SEC teams' league skeds. And you know this, nothing in my post back then to suggest otherwise.

Home-and-away vs LSU, Mizzou, and Vandy -- they were ranked in the way-too-early polls and projected to Dance  -- with road games against KY, TN, and Aub who were ALL projected Top 10 and no return home games against that bunch. I never made comparisons to other teams' schedules in the league because in a strong league they're all tough, but relative to the Hogs' inexperience and youth that made Arkansas's look brutal.

In reality, Ole Miss played the role expected of Missouri before Jontay Porter went down. LSU was actually better than predicted, a team closer to Top 10 nationally than Top 20-25. The road game at Scar ended up being tougher than most would have thought in the preseason, as by conference time it proved worthy and eventually earned a Top 4 seed. Arkansas caught Florida at home early which I thought would be a problem, and Kentucky late which I thought was also advantage 'Cats.

As I demonstrated by lining up Bama's and Florida's skeds, there was no significant sked advantage for Arkansas. In fact, when you factor in playing fewer games at home against the top-tier teams AND experience/expectations then look at the actual results, the Hogs arguably were on par with the other two. Just not a big enough gap there to feed the point that the Hogs got some HUGE scheduling break.

In another post ITT, you made the point that had Mizzou and Vandy not had injuries, Arkansas might be playing on Wed in SECT. You realize FLA played both Vandy and Georgia ('Dogs worse than Mizzou) twice, right? I guess the same logic doesn't favor the Gators? Bama picked up 2 wins against the 'Dores as well.

Nobody should be satisfied with 17-14, 8-10 SEC, just because that's about where expectations were ... but preseason, that is in fact about where they were projected in the league (it was 10th, so the Hogs did slighly better than that). I'm not surprised that you dug up some links showing Hog fans predicting better records -- that happens EVERY YEAR in ALL SPORTS on a message board, at the water cooler, in the lobby of Bed Bath and Beyond on Saturday when men wearing Hog gear accidentally meet while simply searching for a place to sit down and wait out the grueling next hour, and other places where fans talk about their teams before the first game is played ... you know this, too. It's the nature of fans.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 01:30:08 pm by Kevin McPherson »
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bosshawg33

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Bro, you didn't just move the goalposts, you made them wider and lowered them closer to the ground while teeing up the ball at the goal line and waiting until the winds calmed down before sweeping your leg through the ball. You came into this debate trying to make the point that Arkansas had an extremely easier path yet didn't cash in -- those 2 things alone go to you being 1) objectively and subjectively wrong on the "extremely easier" part of your argument, and 2) subjectively incomplete by leaving out experience/expectations, when you played, and where you played -- those things matter when looking at schedule/subsequent records, too. It's not a separate discussion, it matters in THE discussion.

When I made my August predictions, ALL of those things were taken into account. I even pointed to some those specifics and variables THEN, not now to win a dumb argument. I can admit when you're wrong, at least that makes one of us.  ;)

You seem to rile easily. Our 8-10 is not an impressive 8-10 given who we beat and lost to in conference. Simple enough for you?

Overall, I do not believe this team should have lost the following:
vs. WKU
vs. GT
vs. A&M
@ Mizzou

Those 4 are the reason we will most likely not dance.

Kevin McPherson

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You seem to rile easily. Our 8-10 is not an impressive 8-10 given who we beat and lost to in conference. Simple enough for you?

Overall, I do not believe this team should have lost the following:
vs. WKU
vs. GT
vs. A&M
@ Mizzou

Those 4 are the reason we will most likely not dance.

Guy who can't admit he's wrong and continues to move the goalposts while also bending the narrative is not riled up but diagnosing others as such? You sure seem to be trying real hard, doc, for someone who DGAF.
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Atlhogfan1

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Guy who can't admit he's wrong and continues to move the goalposts while also bending the narrative is not riled up but diagnosing others as such? You sure seem to be trying real hard, doc, for someone who DGAF.

You spend too much time on twitter especially for an adult. 

bosshawg33

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Guy who can't admit he's wrong and continues to move the goalposts while also bending the narrative is not riled up but diagnosing others as such? You sure seem to be trying real hard, doc, for someone who DGAF.

Interesting take. Back on topic, I do not believe another SEC team played an easier mix of 18 opponents than us, hence our SEC slate, relative to conference peers, was "extremely" easy.
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Kevin McPherson

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You spend too much time on twitter especially for an adult.

Wow, 2 docs in the room today ... I hope this is pro bono.

bosshawg33

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Wow, 2 docs in the room today ... I hope this is pro bono.

Switching gears, Kevin, what do you think Arkansas' record should have been in the 4 games I mentioned above?

For reference:
vs. WKU
vs. GT
vs. A&M
@ Mizzou
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Kevin McPherson

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Interesting take. Back on topic, I do not believe another SEC team played an easier mix of 18 opponents than us, hence our SEC slate, relative to conference peers, was "extremely" easy.

You, sir, win the "Threading a cow through a needlehole only to call what came out on the other side a cow" award ... and cute how twice you went with the "riled up" comment (off topic, no?), then have the silly audacity to bring me back to topic when I called you out on being the worked-up guy. That's entertainment.
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