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Author Topic: We don't need an NCAA invite.  (Read 985 times)

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logic

We don't need an NCAA invite.
« on: March 10, 2019, 10:06:57 pm »

Considering how far the team has exceeded my expectation for this year, I am more than pleased that the team has earned a guaranteed NIT invite should we not make the NCAA.

Also, the odds are not great, but we have a chance to win the NIT and that would be better than playing one  or even 2 games in the NCAA.  Therefore, even if we did make the NCAA we are going to be matched against a 4 or 5 seed that is going to be well prepared after watching what we did in the SEC tournament. Also, even if by chance, we lucked out and won the first game we would then be matched up against a 1 or 2 seed that is as good or better than Miss State.
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2019, 10:08:16 pm »

Postseason play in year 2 of the cmn era after long and dykes decimated the program is a success. I’ll be pleased either way.

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psycHOGlogist

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2019, 10:21:20 pm »

Don’t really disagree, but a couple thoughts. First, about the seeding. If we somehow were going to get in the Dance, we’d likely be a 10 or an 11 seed. Maybe a 12. Seeds lower than 11 typically go only to those schools from weaker, one-bid conferences.

10 seeds are matched up with 7 seeds in the first round. 11 seeds with the 6, 12 with 5, etc. So, we’d probably be matched up with a 6 or a 7 seed. If we got a 10 seed and beat a 7 seed on a neutral court (which would be perfectly possible), we would very likely face a 2 seed on their home floor. If we were an 11 seed, we’d face a 6 on a neutral court. We could also be fairly hopeful about beating a six (SC and TAMU are currently projected as a 3 and 4, respectively).
As an 11, our second game would be against a 3 seed on their home floor. A 12, obviously, would be a tougher first round game but an “easier” potential second round game. I don’t mean to be patronizing here, but my point is that there is probably no scenario in which we’d have to play a 1 seed in the first two rounds.

The second thought is just that being able to go into a recruit’s home and say that, against all odds, we made the NCAA tournament in Year 2 of a total rebuild is more impressive than saying “we were THIS close” to being in the tournament.

Now, there I think there are a LOT of other things for this staff to sell about the program. But it would be a cherry on the sundae to talk about making the NCAAT.

But I’ll be happy with a WNIT bid, too. That was where I hoped we’d be this year, so I would definitely be satisfied.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 12:11:06 am by psycHOGlogist »
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psycHOGlogist

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2019, 10:25:34 pm »

Current Charlie-Creme-predicted 6 seeds:
UCLA, Florida State, Arizona State, South Dakota State (not a typo - they’re good).

Current 7 seeds:
South Dakota (!), Central Michigan (!!), Texas, and Drake.
I haven’t really been following Texas, but I’m surprised to see them this low. Though I know they’ve had some injuries and transfers, and they lost twice this season to Kansas State. The other mid-majors there are all good, but we should surely be competitive with them.

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TebowHater

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2019, 10:33:30 pm »

Current Charlie-Creme-predicted 6 seeds:
UCLA, Florida State, Arizona State, South Dakota State (not a typo - they’re good).

Current 7 seeds:
South Dakota (!), Central Michigan (!!), Texas, and Drake.
I haven’t really been following Texas, but I’m surprised to see them this low. Though I know they’ve had some injuries and transfers, and they lost twice this season to Kansas State. The other mid-majors there are all good, but we should surely be competitive with them.

Disappointing he doesn't have us in his field but not surprising.
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psycHOGlogist

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2019, 10:44:41 pm »

Disappointing he doesn't have us in his field but not surprising.

On the bright side ... he’s not incredibly accurate from a historical perspective. I mean, he’s not completely random, but he misses fairly regularly, too.

But he and ESPN have really been pimping Tennessee this week.
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TebowHater

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2019, 10:52:29 pm »

On the bright side ... he’s not incredibly accurate from a historical perspective. I mean, he’s not completely random, but he misses fairly regularly, too.

But he and ESPN have really been pimping Tennessee this week.

Of course - if only we could have beaten them at their place when we had the chance or something...

psycHOGlogist

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2019, 11:15:27 pm »

For example, he’s got Central Michigan, Buffalo, and Ohio all in from the MAC.

Buffalo, a last-4-in #11 seed, has a November win over a good South Dakota State team, but otherwise their OOC schedule is weak, and I am not sure if they have ANY other good wins outside the MAC. They have a close loss to Stanford in December. Their other “best wins” are over Ohio in conference, and they just lost to a so-so Kent State team. I don’t understand how they are in over us (except that they were an exciting team last year in the tournament).

Ohio, currently another last-4-in as a #11 seed, also has one decent OOC win, a 7 point victory over a sub-.500-in-B1G Purdue squad. They were undefeated OOC, and Purdue was their only P5 opponent. They got blown out by both Toledo (by 26) and Buffalo (by 30) in the MAC, lost a closer game to Miami of OH, and they split their conference games with CMU. And THIS is a resume that beats ours? We now have two top 15 wins.

Indiana is also a last-4-in team as a 10 seed. Their schedule isn’t bad, and they have some decent wins, but like us, they also got beat up in conference play with some losses to teams that are so-so, like Ohio State (very down year), Northwestern (twice), Minnesota, and Purdue, though they also have a win over a very good Iowa team (B1G champs) and a win over a ranked Michigan St team. They seem deserving to me — at least as deserving as we are.

Tennessee is Creme’s other last-4-in team, and I’m not even going to give that any attention.

Above us in the “first four out” are Butler, who has a win over Marquette earlier this year (good win!), but who also just lost in their conference tournament quarterfinals to a bad Creighton team (see ya!), and TCU. The Horned Frogs are 10-8 in a very top-heavy B12 conference. They have an early season loss to BYU (not great), and a close win over Ole Miss early in the year. They have a win over Iowa State late in the year but they were also blown out by ISU by 40 earlier in the season. I’m hard pressed to see how either of these teams is superior to us on paper.

We should get VERY careful consideration, imo. Not sure we’ll get in, but if Creme is right and these are the teams who are in ahead of us, I think there ought to be some good discussion in that room.
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logic

Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2019, 05:18:01 am »

Don’t really disagree, but a couple thoughts. First, about the seeding. If we somehow were going to get in the Dance, we’d likely be a 10 or an 11 seed. Maybe a 12. Seeds lower than 11 typically go only to those schools from weaker, one-bid conferences.

10 seeds are matched up with 7 seeds in the first round. 11 seeds with the 6, 12 with 5, etc. So, we’d probably be matched up with a 6 or a 7 seed. If we got a 10 seed and beat a 7 seed on a neutral court (which would be perfectly possible), we would very likely face a 2 seed on their home floor. If we were an 11 seed, we’d face a 6 on a neutral court. We could also be fairly hopeful about beating a six (SC and TAMU are currently projected as a 3 and 4, respectively).
As an 11, our second game would be against a 3 seed on their home floor. A 12, obviously, would be a tougher first round game but an “easier” potential second round game. I don’t mean to be patronizing here, but my point is that there is probably no scenario in which we’d have to play a 1 seed in the first two rounds.

The second thought is just that being able to go into a recruit’s home and say that, against all odds, we made the NCAA tournament in Year 2 of a total rebuild is more impressive than saying “we were THIS close” to being in the tournament.

Now, there I think there are a LOT of other things for this staff to sell about the program. But it would be a cherry on the sundae to talk about making the NCAAT.

But I’ll be happy with a WNIT bid, too. That was where I hoped we’d be this year, so I would definitely be satisfied.
I accept that you are right about the seeding which shows how little I know other than dividing by 4 in an attempt to come up the seeding.  In any event, I will be happy, regardless.
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BWS

Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2019, 06:43:56 am »

Just having a conversation about the NCAAT is remarkable enough when you consider the how bad the program was before MN arrived. The fact is if we hired MN in 2014, we probably would have been 28-5 playing Miss St. instead of 20-13. This program is certainly on the rise under MN.

ifghog

Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2019, 06:54:18 am »

Just having a conversation about the NCAAT is remarkable enough when you consider the how bad the program was before MN arrived. The fact is if we hired MN in 2014, we probably would have been 28-5 playing Miss St. instead of 20-13. This program is certainly on the rise under MN.
Great post! The fact we get any post season year two under MN is remarkable! Dykes and Long had totally destroyed the program.  MN is the man!!
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hawg1221

Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2019, 08:49:18 pm »

The publicity just from Chelsea Dungee and the team making it to the finals is great recruiting tool. What CMN has done in year 2 is quite amazing!  The program goes from broken to being talked about quite positively in that period of time. I'm not sure Tennessee has done more than Arkansas. My issue would be this. Let's say Tennessee and Arkansas are even. The fact that Arkansas got hot at the end should trump Tennessee one win in the tournament.
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dfwhawg

Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2019, 08:54:40 pm »

The publicity just from Chelsea Dungee and the team making it to the finals is great recruiting tool. What CMN has done in year 2 is quite amazing!  The program goes from broken to being talked about quite positively in that period of time. I'm not sure Tennessee has done more than Arkansas. My issue would be this. Let's say Tennessee and Arkansas are even. The fact that Arkansas got hot at the end should trump Tennessee one win in the tournament.
Don't forget.  Arkansas beat Tenn in Knoxville this season.
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psycHOGlogist

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2019, 09:53:28 pm »

Don’t forget - Tennessee has made every NCAA tournament. There are folks out there who would see it as an insult to the Summitt legacy to not invite them, even when they are on the bubble.

It’s idiotic, and I hope that that will not be the majority opinion. The current team has nothing to do with Summitt.
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Dwight_K_Shrute

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Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2019, 10:03:06 pm »

I hope if we do not get NCAA bid that fans turn out in droves for WNIT. If they still bid it out like they did when we won it we have a great chance to host all the way. If not we still have chance to host 2 or more games. Great opportunity to show the team some love for the SEC run & give them great momentum going into next year

LadybackBBFan

Re: We don't need an NCAA invite.
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2019, 08:27:39 am »

Considering how far the team has exceeded my expectation for this year, I am more than pleased that the team has earned a guaranteed NIT invite should we not make the NCAA.

Also, the odds are not great, but we have a chance to win the NIT and that would be better than playing one  or even 2 games in the NCAA.  Therefore, even if we did make the NCAA we are going to be matched against a 4 or 5 seed that is going to be well prepared after watching what we did in the SEC tournament. Also, even if by chance, we lucked out and won the first game we would then be matched up against a 1 or 2 seed that is as good or better than Miss State.
All that you say is true.  However, the key for us is match ups.  We can compete with any team that does not have a dominant inside post player like McGowan.  We could compete with Connecticut for example but not against Baylor.   
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