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Author Topic: FG beyers from today make 0 sense  (Read 444 times)

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kingoftherapids

FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« on: February 17, 2019, 01:17:22 am »

Bruno tweeted this
This is why I question figures:
Beyer  for today: Silver Dust - 97-Mineshaft  8.5f In 1:45.46
War of Will - 92 but ran faster in 1:44.59. Serengeti Empress - 91 ran in 1:44.74. The figures make zero sense. Beyer penalizes War of Will for running faster thru out ?
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cbhawg03

Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2019, 11:21:52 am »

Oh goodness, you have set yourself up for a long lecture
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ghostzapper

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Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2019, 06:31:58 pm »

Quit using them if you think they are so bad. 
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ghostzapper

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Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2019, 06:41:35 pm »

Same thing happened in same races a few years back.  Ask best Beyer calculator and best handicapper I have ever known why he does it.  Heíll have a good answer for you.

https://classic.drf.com/news/dick-jerardi-beyer-figures-not-always-based-just-final-time
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userpick

Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2019, 10:09:03 pm »

Quit using them if you think they are so bad.

Heíd have to start using them in order to quit.
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kingoftherapids

Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2019, 10:50:13 pm »

Heíd have to start using them in order to quit.

THIS!!!

ghostzapper

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Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2019, 07:52:02 am »

If you donít use them, why the curiosity about them?  I donít care whether you do or donít use them.  The statement just seems odd, unless your real statement is this proves that they are unreliable, and the article I posted addresses that.
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holeinthewall

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Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2019, 09:36:48 am »

If you donít use them, why the curiosity about them?  I donít care whether you do or donít use them.  The statement just seems odd, unless your real statement is this proves that they are unreliable, and the article I posted addresses that.

Lets be honest all figures are somewhat unreliable. There are a multitude of variables on any given day on any given track down to the way the horse feels that day.

All speed figures are subjective and there fore can't be 100% reliable. 

I used to run a lot and there were some days I felt great and ran faster than my planned times. There were other days I could run the pace I wanted because my body just didn't feel as good.  A horse is no different in this regard.
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ghostzapper

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Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2019, 07:30:57 pm »

Lets be honest all figures are somewhat unreliable. There are a multitude of variables on any given day on any given track down to the way the horse feels that day.

All speed figures are subjective and there fore can't be 100% reliable. 

I used to run a lot and there were some days I felt great and ran faster than my planned times. There were other days I could run the pace I wanted because my body just didn't feel as good.  A horse is no different in this regard.

I wonít dispute that any speed figure system has elements of unreliability.  There are, however, some that have assurances of more reliability than others, and I think you know where I land on that scale.  And, I agree, there is no system that can tell you the day a horse is going to take off or decide to run like Secretariat.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2019, 08:11:10 pm »

Let me say this...I am NOT a fan of Beyer Speed Figs. 
However...let me also say this...if you calculate how often the horses that run in 6furlong races at Hawthorne have a winner who has the best Beyer Speed Fig in the field (usually in the last 2 or 3 races on their PPs)...it is almost alarming.  Keep up with Hawthorne sometime using this angle.
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ghostzapper

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Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2019, 08:33:57 pm »

Let me say this...I am NOT a fan of Beyer Speed Figs. 
However...let me also say this...if you calculate how often the horses that run in 6furlong races at Hawthorne have a winner who has the best Beyer Speed Fig in the field (usually in the last 2 or 3 races on their PPs)...it is almost alarming.  Keep up with Hawthorne sometime using this angle.

Please keep ignoring them.  Best last out Beyer is never a winning approach.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2019, 09:10:01 pm »

Please keep ignoring them.  Best last out Beyer is never a winning approach.

Not disagreeing with you or anyone...but for real take the time to check this at Hawthorne in the 6furlong sprints.  Worth the time to check out.  Throw out anything on a wet track though, only when on a fast trip and taking into consideration the best last races Beyer Figs on fast.
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ghostzapper

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Re: FG beyers from today make 0 sense
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2019, 09:20:52 pm »

My problem with your challenge is that Hawthorne has such low betting pools that the discovery of an angle leads to such little reward.  But I understand what you are asking me to examine.
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