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Author Topic: The Triple Crown Trail  (Read 3359 times)

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Torqued pork

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #100 on: March 18, 2019, 02:57:00 pm »

Who says Santa Anita will even be racing. Reopening on 3/29 but for how long?
Who says Santa Anita will even be racing. Reopening on 3/29 but for how long?
Things can change.  I won't be shocked if Game Winner ends up in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial.
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holeinthewall

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #101 on: March 18, 2019, 03:32:45 pm »

Lets be honest as soon as a couple more horses break down they will be shut down again. 

Watch them go back to synthetic lol
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userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #102 on: March 18, 2019, 04:45:07 pm »

Lets be honest as soon as a couple more horses break down they will be shut down again. 

Watch them go back to synthetic lol

They won’t be open long enough to switch. They’ll be shut down in 3 years tops.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #103 on: March 23, 2019, 06:05:50 pm »

The Louisiana Derby ended up being a huge disappointment.  No super-horses coming out of that race in my opinion.  WOW took bad steps out of the gate on both his front and then rear feet.  He might come out of it hurt...looked super awkward right out of the gate!
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #104 on: March 24, 2019, 06:55:19 pm »

The Louisiana Derby ended up being a huge disappointment.  No super-horses coming out of that race in my opinion.  WOW took bad steps out of the gate on both his front and then rear feet.  He might come out of it hurt...looked super awkward right out of the gate!

BSF of 97 which is top prep number so far.  Go figure.  Meanwhile, horse who Hidden Scroll runs with in FOY wins Hutcheson yesterday.  I don’t think we have yet seen the winner of the Derby run his final prep. 
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Torqued pork

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #105 on: March 25, 2019, 08:33:12 am »

Wonder what Omaha Beach is gonna do?
Arkansas Derby
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oldman1015

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #106 on: March 25, 2019, 06:16:55 pm »

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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #107 on: March 28, 2019, 10:15:48 pm »

In all honesty...why does Hidden Scroll deserve to be 5/2 ML odds at 1 1/8 miles?  I get the crazy speed fig the race before last...but really?  He is NOT Justify...he was totally dragging a$$ across the finish line at a shorter distance after going quick up front.
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Russ22

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #108 on: March 28, 2019, 10:33:49 pm »

In all honesty...why does Hidden Scroll deserve to be 5/2 ML odds at 1 1/8 miles?  I get the crazy speed fig the race before last...but really?  He is NOT Justify...he was totally dragging a$$ across the finish line at a shorter distance after going quick up front.
Very few horses are Justify. He ran himself out of that race with crazy fractions on the front end. The jockey change might work but 5/2 is not a good enough price to get my money. I am leaning Bourbon War over Code of Honor.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #109 on: March 29, 2019, 08:55:21 pm »

Very few horses are Justify. He ran himself out of that race with crazy fractions on the front end. The jockey change might work but 5/2 is not a good enough price to get my money. I am leaning Bourbon War over Code of Honor.

I think he could be a nasty 7furlong to 1mile specialist based on what I have seen.  I highly doubt he wants to go much further even if the breeding suggests it.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #110 on: March 30, 2019, 07:05:58 am »

It runs contrary to conventional wisdom about this race and the way Mott has been training him, but Hidden Scroll can make an easy lead if he wants it. 
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #111 on: March 30, 2019, 11:24:08 am »

It runs contrary to conventional wisdom about this race and the way Mott has been training him, but Hidden Scroll can make an easy lead if he wants it. 

An easy lead if he wants to go 22.4 and 45.2?
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #112 on: March 30, 2019, 12:21:18 pm »

Dont think so unless Max Sec or horse just to his outside decide to go for lead.  But I don’t think they will.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #113 on: March 30, 2019, 05:57:32 pm »

Irad just schooled Javier.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #114 on: March 30, 2019, 06:01:48 pm »

sorry, I meant Saez schooled Javier
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #115 on: March 30, 2019, 06:03:05 pm »

An easy lead if he wants to go 22.4 and 45.2?

He could have had the lead in 48
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #116 on: March 30, 2019, 06:10:27 pm »

Hidden Scroll had no excuses for not being up front on that slow stroll.  I think he freaked on the wet track up front that day.  Maybe he tunes up for a shot in the Preakness...and they pray for rain?
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #117 on: March 30, 2019, 06:17:54 pm »

HS was the second coming off a huge sloppy win and then drug his butt across the finish line to a horse that was up for $16k and an 0-4 maiden that freaked prior to the start.  Will take a miracle for any horse from that race to sniff the KY Derby top 4
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #118 on: March 30, 2019, 06:55:32 pm »

Hidden Scroll had no excuses for not being up front on that slow stroll.  I think he freaked on the wet track up front that day.  Maybe he tunes up for a shot in the Preakness...and they pray for rain?

I agree he had no excuses but I think his team was so afraid of getting caught up in a speed duel that they forgot they might actually draw a field where they were the fastest of the early speed horses.  So they spent their time making sure he ran a race from off the pace and he can’t do it.  The horse that finished 4th in his maiden win ran second in the Fla Derby, and is still a maiden.  Everyone who runs around Hidden Scroll runs well.  He doesn’t. 
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #119 on: March 30, 2019, 06:59:02 pm »

HS was the second coming off a huge sloppy win and then drug his butt across the finish line to a horse that was up for $16k and an 0-4 maiden that freaked prior to the start.  Will take a miracle for any horse from that race to sniff the KY Derby top 4

I will agree with everything you say about that field in Ky Derby except for Maximum Security.  He is trained by a guy who is winning at an inexplicable rate.  He just took a $16,000 Maiden claimer who had never run a 2 turn race and made a mockery of a field that had some decent horses in it.  I am not calling him a cheater and, because of that, I am not going to rule out anybody he runs in Derby. 
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #120 on: March 30, 2019, 07:07:36 pm »

I will agree with everything you say about that field in Ky Derby except for Maximum Security.  He is trained by a guy who is winning at an inexplicable rate.  He just took a $16,000 Maiden claimer who had never run a 2 turn race and made a mockery of a field that had some decent horses in it.  I am not calling him a cheater and, because of that, I am not going to rule out anybody he runs in Derby.

Yeah, that breaking it off in my ass going to have to wait a while bud. 

If they thought the horse was that good, he would be with Joe Sharp, Baffert or would have been with Asmussen until they seemed to take them all away from Asmussen. 

You don’t have to call him a cheat, I will for ya.  He cheats.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #121 on: March 30, 2019, 07:41:34 pm »

Yeah, that breaking it off in my ass going to have to wait a while bud. 

If they thought the horse was that good, he would be with Joe Sharp, Baffert or would have been with Asmussen until they seemed to take them all away from Asmussen. 

You don’t have to call him a cheat, I will for ya.  He cheats.

What, exactly, did you predict Cowboy? 
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #122 on: March 30, 2019, 07:47:17 pm »

I can't fault the Florida Derby winner for having it all his way up front.  He wins a grade 1, which was his job today.  The whole $16k maiden claimer does smell fishy...but crazier things have happened in this game!  Heck...who knows if War Of Will might have just felt like crap that particular day...and he comes back with a monster race.  The KY Derby is a huge question mark all things considered for everyone this year.  Who knows?
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #123 on: March 30, 2019, 07:55:26 pm »

I can't fault the Florida Derby winner for having it all his way up front.  He wins a grade 1, which was his job today.  The whole $16k maiden claimer does smell fishy...but crazier things have happened in this game!  Heck...who knows if War Of Will might have just felt like crap that particular day...and he comes back with a monster race.  The KY Derby is a huge question mark all things considered for everyone this year.  Who knows?

Accurate summation right now.  Your current leaders in the clubhouse are (a) an American horse winning in Dubai who couldn’t do much in NOLA, (b) a 40/1 made 20/1 by a bet by his owner in NOLA and (c) a former $16,000 maiden claimer who demolished a field in Fla in his first attempt around 2 turns.  Hard to believe the winner is in that group.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #124 on: March 30, 2019, 08:07:40 pm »

Accurate summation right now.  Your current leaders in the clubhouse are (a) an American horse winning in Dubai who couldn’t do much in NOLA, (b) a 40/1 made 20/1 by a bet by his owner in NOLA and (c) a former $16,000 maiden claimer who demolished a field in Fla in his first attempt around 2 turns.  Hard to believe the winner is in that group.

If you forced me to make a $500 win and place bet right now in the KY Derby, it would without a doubt be on Game Winner!
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #125 on: March 30, 2019, 08:09:38 pm »

Couldn’t argue with that right now.

userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #126 on: March 30, 2019, 08:46:44 pm »

Servis should be in jail. Total piece of shitt and is a disgrace to horse racing. As for that race, lots of bums in there.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #127 on: March 30, 2019, 09:22:15 pm »

Servis should be in jail. Total piece of shitt and is a disgrace to horse racing. As for that race, lots of bums in there.

Surely if he is as dirty as that guy at Woodbine it will surface soon?
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userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #128 on: March 30, 2019, 10:11:22 pm »

Surely if he is as dirty as that guy at Woodbine it will surface soon?

He’s alrwady been caught. The industry doesn’t care. Like a trainer recently told me. “They’d rather just tell them not to do it again than let the public know.” He was talking about Oaklawn but it’s the same everywhere. Servis might be the biggest cheater in the country but nothing significant will ever be done. He’ll get his annual slap on the wrist, quit winning for 3 weeks, and then do it all over again.
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #129 on: March 31, 2019, 12:41:54 am »

What, exactly, did you predict Cowboy?

You wouldn’t believe how many times I’ve been called Cowboy cause somehow my actual name leads people to pronounce it as Cowboy lol
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #130 on: March 31, 2019, 12:44:59 am »

Nothing is beating Omaha Beach or Game Winner.  If so, it will be a Giacomo or Mine that bird type fluke.  Maybe throw Improbable in with them as well, was his first start as well.  I would take 2/1 on those 3 over the field at the moment and it will feel like stealing
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #131 on: April 01, 2019, 09:42:33 pm »

Nothing is beating Omaha Beach or Game Winner.  If so, it will be a Giacomo or Mine that bird type fluke.  Maybe throw Improbable in with them as well, was his first start as well.  I would take 2/1 on those 3 over the field at the moment and it will feel like stealing

Any chance that Bob sends Game Winner back here in your opinion? 
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #132 on: April 02, 2019, 10:34:02 am »

Any chance that Bob sends Game Winner back here in your opinion?

No.  Game Winner is running at SA in SA Derby. 

Improbable is coming back for AR Derby.  Omaha Beach is coming back as well. 
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #133 on: April 02, 2019, 06:44:21 pm »

You wouldn’t believe how many times I’ve been called Cowboy cause somehow my actual name leads people to pronounce it as Cowboy lol

Oops.  My bad!  Educated guess
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #134 on: April 02, 2019, 06:48:08 pm »

Oops.  My bad!  Educated guess
It’s a wide variety, Cowboy, Cable, and the best was somehow Carol lol
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #135 on: April 02, 2019, 08:46:03 pm »

I should probably be excited by Maximum Security given his meteoric rise but hard to get excited about him.  Gotta confess that, with HS’ fold, not seeing too much in this year’s crop.  I realize there are races to be run and reputations to be made, but nobody impresses me as a generation maker so far.  Hell, I just watched Gronkowski lose a 12 mil purse by a nose.  Why wouldn’t I be cynical?
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holeinthewall

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #136 on: April 03, 2019, 05:22:52 am »

So being pointed toward the Arkansas Derby?  Omaha Beach, Long Range Toddy, Grey Attempt, Improbable who else?
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riccoar

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #137 on: April 03, 2019, 07:10:09 am »

So being pointed toward the Arkansas Derby?  Omaha Beach, Long Range Toddy, Grey Attempt, Improbable who else?
So far these are listed as Probable
   
Galilean  (3rd in Rebel 1st Split)
Long Range Toddy (Won Rebel 1st Split)
Omaha Beach  (Won Rebel 2nd Split)
Improbable  (2nd in Rebel 1st Split)
Frosted Ice
Roiland   
Gray Attempt
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #138 on: April 03, 2019, 07:48:31 am »

I should probably be excited by Maximum Security given his meteoric rise but hard to get excited about him.  Gotta confess that, with HS’ fold, not seeing too much in this year’s crop.  I realize there are races to be run and reputations to be made, but nobody impresses me as a generation maker so far.  Hell, I just watched Gronkowski lose a 12 mil purse by a nose.  Why wouldn’t I be cynical?

Improbable
Game Winner
Omaha Beach

There are three reasons.  Two of them have only made one start and one has only ran in one stakes race and won it.  That is unless you are tired of Baffert winning.
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cram224

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #139 on: April 03, 2019, 08:10:09 am »

Unless something happens Toddy will be in Ar Derby.
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Torqued pork

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #140 on: April 04, 2019, 01:59:50 pm »

I'm anxious to see if the buzz around Roadster is legit.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #141 on: April 05, 2019, 08:49:53 pm »

I'm anxious to see if the buzz around Roadster is legit.

The talent is there...they just have to see if he is all fixed up now biologically.  If he is...he'll be a monster again!
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Torqued pork

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #142 on: April 06, 2019, 06:21:34 pm »

The talent is there...they just have to see if he is all fixed up now biologically.  If he is...he'll be a monster again!
Yes, the buzz was legit.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #143 on: April 07, 2019, 03:18:24 pm »

Improbable
Game Winner
Omaha Beach

There are three reasons.  Two of them have only made one start and one has only ran in one stakes race and won it.  That is unless you are tired of Baffert winning.

None of them have run a race faster than La Derby winner or as fast as MS.  Game Winner has run pretty much the same race for 3 consecutive races (though I give him credit for a wide trip yesterday) Roadster is on an improvement path that, if continued, could vault him to good horse status.  Omaha Beach is improving and I hope he goes on to be something good.  But, I bet this is first Derby we get with one, and only one, horse who has run one triple digit Beyer before the Derby.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #144 on: April 07, 2019, 04:27:56 pm »

He’s alrwady been caught. The industry doesn’t care. Like a trainer recently told me. “They’d rather just tell them not to do it again than let the public know.” He was talking about Oaklawn but it’s the same everywhere. Servis might be the biggest cheater in the country but nothing significant will ever be done. He’ll get his annual slap on the wrist, quit winning for 3 weeks, and then do it all over again.

I am not doubting this, but what, exactly, is he doing?  Blood doping?  I realize the cheaters are always 3 steps ahead of the testers, but I am always puzzled by what they are doing.  Masking pain to make a good but poor performing horse run his best is understandable as a cheating tactic, but you can only do it x number of times before the horse has to be retired.  The more sinister things to me are things like blood doping where you really are addressing the biology of the horse.
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #145 on: April 07, 2019, 08:42:35 pm »

I am not doubting this, but what, exactly, is he doing?  Blood doping?  I realize the cheaters are always 3 steps ahead of the testers, but I am always puzzled by what they are doing.  Masking pain to make a good but poor performing horse run his best is understandable as a cheating tactic, but you can only do it x number of times before the horse has to be retired.  The more sinister things to me are things like blood doping where you really are addressing the biology of the horse.

Why you think Pletcher runs through so many horses? They run out of their mind then disappear for 6 months? A year? Have to be put down to an injury?

Not from some clean program he putting his horses through
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #146 on: April 07, 2019, 08:45:08 pm »

None of them have run a race faster than La Derby winner or as fast as MS.  Game Winner has run pretty much the same race for 3 consecutive races (though I give him credit for a wide trip yesterday) Roadster is on an improvement path that, if continued, could vault him to good horse status.  Omaha Beach is improving and I hope he goes on to be something good.  But, I bet this is first Derby we get with one, and only one, horse who has run one triple digit Beyer before the Derby.

GP horses almost always run faster.  War of Will running faster is a surprise.

I would still take Improbable, Omaha Beach, Game Winner and Roadster over the field though. 

Just think better horses, better competition and more consistent.  Will be interesting in that Baffert horses won’t be on the pace or make the pace, which is vastly different and can lead to getting caught up in traffic with 20 horses so anything can happen but I would take them 4 over the field if the race was tomorrow.
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holeinthewall

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #147 on: April 08, 2019, 05:48:39 am »

It will definitely be a wide open betting race.  I hope Tax wins. Gelding and won't be retired which would be good for the sport.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #148 on: April 08, 2019, 05:00:21 pm »

GP horses almost always run faster.  War of Will running faster is a surprise.

I would still take Improbable, Omaha Beach, Game Winner and Roadster over the field though. 

Just think better horses, better competition and more consistent.  Will be interesting in that Baffert horses won’t be on the pace or make the pace, which is vastly different and can lead to getting caught up in traffic with 20 horses so anything can happen but I would take them 4 over the field if the race was tomorrow.

I can’t argue with any of that.  A Roadster/Game Winner quinella would not surprise me in the least.  Just wish someone would run faster than they have, or the
that they will run faster than they have.  They are all on par with Gronkowski right now. 
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #149 on: April 08, 2019, 05:02:04 pm »

Why you think Pletcher runs through so many horses? They run out of their mind then disappear for 6 months? A year? Have to be put down to an injury?

Not from some clean program he putting his horses through

It’s not that I can’t comprehend him or other successful trainers cheating.  I just would like to know what it is they are doing.  Pretty amazing that there hasn’t been a whistleblower on a trainer. 
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