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Author Topic: The Triple Crown Trail  (Read 3097 times)

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ghostzapper

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The Triple Crown Trail
« on: February 05, 2019, 12:09:07 pm »

Thought it would be a good idea to start a thread on TC candidates.   Prep races have started and thoughts on who looks good/bad are invited.   

Mucho Gusto won the Robert Lewis in the slop this past weekend at SA and got a BSF of 90.  Gonna have to make a big move forward imo to be considered a real challenger.   None of the stakes winners this weekend at GP impressed, particularly Harvey Wallbanger who rode the rail and overtook speed horses who died in the stretch to win the Holy Bull with a BSF of 85.   

Let's hear who you like and why. 
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weevilhogg

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2019, 04:03:59 pm »

Chalky as it may be, but Game Winner has the early look.  Hidden Scroll definitley raised. Some eyebrows at GP. 

I suppose things will really take shape over the next 2-3 weeks.   
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oldman1015

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2019, 04:58:59 pm »

Any talk of horses already at Oaklawn being really good?
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2019, 05:06:20 pm »

At this point, nothing that can beat any of the Baffert horses.  Everybody has either disappointed or had a good performance on an off track. 

Will be interesting to see who Baffert brings to OP.  Grey Attempt is a fast horse that could run any Baffert speed type into the ground and burn both. 
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ghostzapper

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cram224

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2019, 11:03:26 am »

ghostzapper, do you ever get "the sheets". I always liked it over BSF. If a person was tracking 2 year olds to buy it really was good.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2019, 08:29:46 pm »

Not so fast my friends...dismiss WOW and the horses in New Orleans and you could be throwing tickets in the trash!
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2019, 05:54:13 am »

ghostzapper, do you ever get "the sheets". I always liked it over BSF. If a person was tracking 2 year olds to buy it really was good.

No, though I know they have their devotees.  I donít think I have ever seen anything published about how they are calculated and they use a scale that is a little too small for my tastes.  I like having an idea about how the final number is determined and I just donít know enough about them to comfortably use them.  My understanding is that they incorporate trip into the final number which is a good thing so long as you know how they are doing that.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2019, 05:55:49 am »

Not so fast my friends...dismiss WOW and the horses in New Orleans and you could be throwing tickets in the trash!

At this stage of the game, all of the prep winners/runners up are candidates.  Nobody has really distinguished themselves yet.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2019, 08:59:27 am »

Suddenly the former claimer, Maximum Security, becomes a contender.
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2019, 10:08:51 pm »

Hidden Scroll huge bet against for me.  Off the slop performance, bounce is coming.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2019, 11:24:31 pm »

Hidden Scroll huge bet against for me.  Off the slop performance, bounce is coming.

Could be.  I wonít be betting race but that race intrigues me because I think H S could be best 3 year old I have seen in a while.  Vekoma is only other contender I like in race.
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2019, 07:03:16 am »

Could be.  I wonít be betting race but that race intrigues me because I think H S could be best 3 year old I have seen in a while.  Vekoma is only other contender I like in race.

Bob Baffert would like to say hi
« Last Edit: February 28, 2019, 10:51:05 am by cbhawg03 »
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2019, 08:50:49 pm »

I don't think WOW is being taken nearly as serious as he should be.  Look at this race.  What he did from the 14 hole this early in the season is what you'd expect to see from a 4 or 5 year old...not a young 3 year old.  I don't get why he isn't being talked about more...I am on the bandwagon big time!
Watch the gallop out at the end...ears are pricked and stride is long and relaxed still.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3Nal-v_4fU
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2019, 09:27:38 pm »

I don't think WOW is being taken nearly as serious as he should be.  Look at this race.  What he did from the 14 hole this early in the season is what you'd expect to see from a 4 or 5 year old...not a young 3 year old.  I don't get why he isn't being talked about more...I am on the bandwagon big time!
Watch the gallop out at the end...ears are pricked and stride is long and relaxed still.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3Nal-v_4fU


Eh. Relatively slow pace and not much in race.  Maybe he moves forward but I like FoY field a lot more than Risen Star. 
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2019, 09:29:25 pm »

Bob Baffert would like to say hi

With regard to this year, or his 3 year olds all time?  FoY will tell us if HS can be better than Justify.
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userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2019, 09:48:05 pm »

With regard to this year, or his 3 year olds all time?  FoY will tell us if HS can be better than Justify.

I can go ahead and answer that for you. Mott doesnít have the same formula Baffert has.
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Russ22

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2019, 09:55:54 pm »

I plan to bet against Hidden Scroll in FOY. He may win but I am looking elsewhere to put my money.

His one race was very impressive, but it was 1 turn mile on a sloppy track against maidens. He will be going 2 turns against some pretty good company on Saturday.
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Russ22

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2019, 09:56:15 pm »

I can go ahead and answer that for you. Mott doesnít have the same formula Baffert has.
I agree with this.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2019, 09:22:33 am »

I get the difference in trainers, I guess I was asking which 3 year old in particular of Bafferts he thought was his best. 
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userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2019, 09:29:59 am »

I get the difference in trainers, I guess I was asking which 3 year old in particular of Bafferts he thought was his best. 

Iím just guessing but If I had to pick a Baffert horse right now, it would be Improbable. Of course that can change in a minute though.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2019, 09:42:47 am »

Iím just guessing but If I had to pick a Baffert horse right now, it would be Improbable. Of course that can change in a minute though.

Yeah, curious to see how he and Game Winner have developed.   Are they running against each other in SA, or is Baffert going to send one to Hot Springs and leave other in CA?   Interesting that Instagrand fled to New York.   That would suggest, at least, that Hollendorfer thought Baffert's two were better than anything there. 
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2019, 10:02:54 am »

With regard to this year, or his 3 year olds all time?  FoY will tell us if HS can be better than Justify.

Either.  You keep going off those BSFís, where did that get you when Gun Runner trounced Arrogate?  Everybody knew Arrogate was going nowhere but backwards

One performance on a sloppy track doesnít put that horse in with Game Winner or Improbable.

Could HS be legit? Yes but that one races doesnít put him anywhere near the Baffert duo yet
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2019, 10:17:57 am »

What does Justify have to do with anything?  HS isnít running against Justify.  He doesnít have to be better than Justify, AP, Secretariat or any other horse.  He has to be better than GW and Improbable at the moment, and that he isnít as it stands.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2019, 10:36:28 am »

Either.  You keep going off those BSFís, where did that get you when Gun Runner trounced Arrogate?  Everybody knew Arrogate was going nowhere but backwards

One performance on a sloppy track doesnít put that horse in with Game Winner or Improbable.

Could HS be legit? Yes but that one races doesnít put him anywhere near the Baffert duo yet

Why the attitude dude?   I didn't bet Arrogate in the Classic, and I sure as hell did not guarantee anyone that he would win the Classic, so my use of BSFs didn't do anything to me.  Why you have this continued need to denigrate the use of them and, in particular, my use of them, is ridiculous.  I'm happy to compare betting scores I have made using them, including last weekend's, if you insist they are worthless. 

The opinion I expressed was that I was excited about HS' potential because I had not seen a 3 year old do that in a maiden in a long time, and if he continued to move forward he could be something special.   I based that opinion on two things - (1) how fast he actually ran that day, and I didn't need a BSF to tell me it was fast but, (2) more importantly, how he did it.   It was effortless.   The horse that ran 4th in that race came back last week to run second in a MSW race and got a 91 BSF, confirming the number given to HS.   Will HS move forward this weekend or will he be relegated to the heap of one hit wonders or slop only status - I don't know.   I just expressed excitement about him and his potential. 

As for the belief that the FOY will indicate whether he fits with Justify, BSFs are enlightening.   Justify, as I recall, also got a 104 in his maiden win and then got a 107 in one of his next two races.   He then faced what is arguably the worst group of 3 year olds to run the triple crown and basically ran 100-102s in those three races.   If HS wins the FoY and runs faster than his maiden win, there is objective proof that he can be as good as Justify, if not better.   

I want to see a return to the 1997 triple crown class.   I'll settle for one horse getting there for now, and if I can hypothesize that it could be Hidden Scroll, I'll do it.   Could it be Game Winner or Improbable, maybe.   I haven't seen anything from the horses Game Winner beat to make me think he's something special but 3 year olds can improve in dramatic ways.   Vekoma might be something special too and he, not HS, may be the story tomorrow.     
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cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2019, 11:25:35 am »

Why the attitude dude?   I didn't bet Arrogate in the Classic, and I sure as hell did not guarantee anyone that he would win the Classic, so my use of BSFs didn't do anything to me.  Why you have this continued need to denigrate the use of them and, in particular, my use of them, is ridiculous.  I'm happy to compare betting scores I have made using them, including last weekend's, if you insist they are worthless. 

The opinion I expressed was that I was excited about HS' potential because I had not seen a 3 year old do that in a maiden in a long time, and if he continued to move forward he could be something special.   I based that opinion on two things - (1) how fast he actually ran that day, and I didn't need a BSF to tell me it was fast but, (2) more importantly, how he did it.   It was effortless.   The horse that ran 4th in that race came back last week to run second in a MSW race and got a 91 BSF, confirming the number given to HS.   Will HS move forward this weekend or will he be relegated to the heap of one hit wonders or slop only status - I don't know.   I just expressed excitement about him and his potential. 

As for the belief that the FOY will indicate whether he fits with Justify, BSFs are enlightening.   Justify, as I recall, also got a 104 in his maiden win and then got a 107 in one of his next two races.   He then faced what is arguably the worst group of 3 year olds to run the triple crown and basically ran 100-102s in those three races.   If HS wins the FoY and runs faster than his maiden win, there is objective proof that he can be as good as Justify, if not better.   

I want to see a return to the 1997 triple crown class.   I'll settle for one horse getting there for now, and if I can hypothesize that it could be Hidden Scroll, I'll do it.   Could it be Game Winner or Improbable, maybe.   I haven't seen anything from the horses Game Winner beat to make me think he's something special but 3 year olds can improve in dramatic ways.   Vekoma might be something special too and he, not HS, may be the story tomorrow.   

I donít have an attitude dude.  Outside of it being March 1st and what that day meant two years to the day, Iím good man. 

I donít care if you bet Arrogate or not but you sure as hell were in here saying how GR would have to run race of his life, how Arrogate was set up on like 3rd off lay-off to crush Classic and crap.  Everybody and their mother knew Arrogate was going to get trounced and was going backwards but you. 

You come on here shoving BSF crap down everybodyís throat.  Hell, itís asked how they make any sense on FG races and your crappy response is why you use them.  Heck, you couldnít explain a single thing, you post a link to some old article. 

So now you using your eyes to judge HS? How come you couldnít do that with Arrogate?

Could careless what the horse that ran 4th came back to run.  Look at the bigger tracks, horses always getting bigger BSF.  He came back to run whatever and still got beat.  Does it matter if he ran a 130 then? He got beat.

What number he runs is not objective proof that he can be better than Justify.  Using BSF, that gives horses higher numbers despite running slower than other horses on a track that has no change at all in it is not objective proof of anything. 

It matters NOT ONE IOTA that HS can, canít, run figures comparable or better than Justify.  He ISNíT running against JUSTIFY!!  Look at Game Winner and Improbable, so far HS is going to have to run better than them and not just in a MSW on a sloppy track. 
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heavylifting

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2019, 11:38:59 am »

He then faced what is arguably the worst group of 3 year olds to run the triple crown

Correct me if my memory is faulty, but in the weeks leading up to last year's Kentucky Derby the consensus seemed to be that the 3yo crop was one of the strongest in recent memory. [Please don't make me scroll back through last year's threads to confirm this.]

Funny how these things play out. By June, all but one of those had been exposed as pretenders.

Suggests that maybe -- MAYBE -- a crop in which horses take turns beating each other indicates strength, rather than having half a dozen horses dominating weak fields from January to April only to be exposed in May and June.

In any event, it's often best to wait until well past the Belmont Stakes to definitely say yea or nay.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2019, 11:52:49 am »

I donít have an attitude dude.  Outside of it being March 1st and what that day meant two years to the day, Iím good man. 

I donít care if you bet Arrogate or not but you sure as hell were in here saying how GR would have to run race of his life, how Arrogate was set up on like 3rd off lay-off to crush Classic and crap.  Everybody and their mother knew Arrogate was going to get trounced and was going backwards but you. 

You come on here shoving BSF crap down everybodyís throat.  Hell, itís asked how they make any sense on FG races and your crappy response is why you use them.  Heck, you couldnít explain a single thing, you post a link to some old article. 

So now you using your eyes to judge HS? How come you couldnít do that with Arrogate?

Could careless what the horse that ran 4th came back to run.  Look at the bigger tracks, horses always getting bigger BSF.  He came back to run whatever and still got beat.  Does it matter if he ran a 130 then? He got beat.

What number he runs is not objective proof that he can be better than Justify.  Using BSF, that gives horses higher numbers despite running slower than other horses on a track that has no change at all in it is not objective proof of anything. 

It matters NOT ONE IOTA that HS can, canít, run figures comparable or better than Justify.  He ISNíT running against JUSTIFY!!  Look at Game Winner and Improbable, so far HS is going to have to run better than them and not just in a MSW on a sloppy track.

I haven't shoved anything down your throat, and your continued misrepresentations of what I said about Arrogate are getting old.   Its obvious you handicap by a standard I can't appreciate and I handicap by one you don't, so I'll quit trying to engage you in this kind of conversation.   I'll just say I hope two years ago to the day was something worth celebrating. 
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #28 on: March 01, 2019, 11:54:51 am »

Correct me if my memory is faulty, but in the weeks leading up to last year's Kentucky Derby the consensus seemed to be that the 3yo crop was one of the strongest in recent memory. [Please don't make me scroll back through last year's threads to confirm this.]

Funny how these things play out. By June, all but one of those had been exposed as pretenders.

Suggests that maybe -- MAYBE -- a crop in which horses take turns beating each other indicates strength, rather than having half a dozen horses dominating weak fields from January to April only to be exposed in May and June.

In any event, it's often best to wait until well past the Belmont Stakes to definitely say yea or nay.

It is true that, before the Derby, the class was considered strong.  Nobody panned out (the high hopes for Audible haven't materialized) and Justify stopped running.   No doubt, the ability to ultimately gauge the strength of the class requires time. 
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oldman1015

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #29 on: March 01, 2019, 11:55:12 am »

Is this the politics forum?

cbhawg03

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #30 on: March 01, 2019, 12:02:31 pm »

I haven't shoved anything down your throat, and your continued misrepresentations of what I said about Arrogate are getting old.   Its obvious you handicap by a standard I can't appreciate and I handicap by one you don't, so I'll quit trying to engage you in this kind of conversation.   I'll just say I hope two years ago to the day was something worth celebrating.

Arrogate ran about 2 lengths slower than his best race.  3rd race of a form cycle may make him perfect for BC.  In that a lot of trainers are bemoaning the track surface and saying it takes a few spins in order to adjust to it, he may be rounding nicely into his form. 

Interestingly, his race Saturday was still faster than anything GR has run to date, as was the winner's.

No he wouldn't have.  On what basis do you think he would have?

So, basically, your opinion.  Nothing measurable like final time or speed figures.  At some point, you should learn what a speed figure measures and how it is caculated.  Because if you did, you would know that GR hasn't yet run a race as fast as the top 2 finishers in the P Classic.

No doubt GR is a talented horse.  Maybe he explodes to new heights in the BC Classic.  But, based on pps, he's maxxed at a 112 and the Classic is going to have horses who run faster than that, including Arrogate in his last race at Dmr.

Just a few nuggets Iíll leave here for ya bud.  Iím off to the cemetery, donít take it personal man, GR kicked Arrogates ass when Arrogate was set up perfectly, and HS romped against maidens on a sloppy track.  Maybe HS wins tomorrow for ya.  Either have, good luck
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heavylifting

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #31 on: March 01, 2019, 12:06:25 pm »

Is this the politics forum?
Did you check in last year when it was revealed that George Soros owned a piece of Justify?
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oldman1015

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #32 on: March 01, 2019, 12:16:45 pm »

Did you check in last year when it was revealed that George Soros owned a piece of Justify?
Uh huh
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #33 on: March 01, 2019, 03:53:30 pm »

MAGA!  Just kidding (not really but...)...but for real you guys are wanting to give this horse a reach around because he freaked on a sealed slop track at Gulfstream?  Yet ignore the professional performance from WOW out of the 14 hole...and still draw off in the ONLY stretch that mirrors Churchill?  WOW is going to move forward big time in my opinion.  With all this said...If Bill Mott thought he had Justify...that horse would NOT have been 8-1 in that race.  We'll see!
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Russ22

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #34 on: March 01, 2019, 03:59:29 pm »

MAGA!  Just kidding (not really but...)...but for real you guys are wanting to give this horse a reach around because he freaked on a sealed slop track at Gulfstream?  Yet ignore the professional performance from WOW out of the 14 hole...and still draw off in the ONLY stretch that mirrors Churchill?  WOW is going to move forward big time in my opinion.  With all this said...If Bill Mott thought he had Justify...that horse would NOT have been 8-1 in that race.  We'll see!
That's strange because I heard the exact thing on Blinkers On this morning. How did no one in Mott's barn not lay down serious cash if they thought they had a monster? There were no rumors that this cat was about to go off in a big way.
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heavylifting

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #35 on: March 01, 2019, 05:13:00 pm »

That's strange because I heard the exact thing on Blinkers On this morning. How did no one in Mott's barn not lay down serious cash if they thought they had a monster? There were no rumors that this cat was about to go off in a big way.
If you don't mind my stretching back to the 1970s, I believe Affirmed went off at 11-1 when he won his debut.
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oldman1015

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #36 on: March 01, 2019, 05:30:08 pm »

Iím gonna watch several more prep races before I get in on this argument.
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ghostzapper

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Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #37 on: March 01, 2019, 06:24:20 pm »

That's strange because I heard the exact thing on Blinkers On this morning. How did no one in Mott's barn not lay down serious cash if they thought they had a monster? There were no rumors that this cat was about to go off in a big way.

Check out Mottís sonís tweets after race.  He was a FTS in one hole in a mile long race with other maidens trained by good trainers.  8-1 was an expected price.   He could be a one hit wonder.  He could be a mud freak.  But that race, and his susequent work with Tacitus, tap him as a good horse in my book.  Iíd bring up BSFs in support but thatís like talking about prayer in schools.

userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #38 on: March 01, 2019, 09:04:29 pm »

I love this board.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #39 on: March 01, 2019, 09:49:03 pm »

That's strange because I heard the exact thing on Blinkers On this morning. How did no one in Mott's barn not lay down serious cash if they thought they had a monster? There were no rumors that this cat was about to go off in a big way.

In this day and time...if they thought they had a monster he would have been minimum 9-5...that cannot be argued in my opinion.  Is he a monster?  We'll have to wait and see.  However...I truly believe WOW in turning into a monster!
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #40 on: March 01, 2019, 09:50:35 pm »

If you don't mind my stretching back to the 1970s, I believe Affirmed went off at 11-1 when he won his debut.

I see where you are going with this...but my thought is we are living in a different day and time where info travels way too fast!
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #41 on: March 01, 2019, 09:56:22 pm »

Check out Mottís sonís tweets after race.  He was a FTS in one hole in a mile long race with other maidens trained by good trainers.  8-1 was an expected price.   He could be a one hit wonder.  He could be a mud freak.  But that race, and his susequent work with Tacitus, tap him as a good horse in my book.  Iíd bring up BSFs in support but thatís like talking about prayer in schools.

BSFs only work at Hawthorne in 6furlong races on a fast dirt track...LOL...I am kidding but only kinda.
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userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2019, 10:12:17 pm »

I damn sure donít mind being wrong about a race. Iíll bet against Hidden Scroll tomorrow if I think heís vulnerable at all.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #43 on: March 02, 2019, 02:56:54 pm »

I damn sure donít mind being wrong about a race. Iíll bet against Hidden Scroll tomorrow if I think heís vulnerable at all.

I'm going hard against Hidden Scroll.  To the tune of $60WP on #6 Signalman.
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oldman1015

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #44 on: March 02, 2019, 05:01:43 pm »

That race didnít help me with a Derby pick.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #45 on: March 02, 2019, 05:04:13 pm »

That race didnít help me with a Derby pick.

It helped me throw $120 in the garbage can haha!
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Russ22

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #46 on: March 02, 2019, 05:04:23 pm »

That race didnít help me with a Derby pick.
Baffert didnít have a horse running so I am not sure what you were looking for.

:-)
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Russ22

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #47 on: March 02, 2019, 05:05:52 pm »

It helped me throw $120 in the garbage can haha!
I had Signalman for $10 Win bet. The ADW I use was giving a refund if you your pick  doesnít win but hits the board. I thought he would at least do that.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #48 on: March 02, 2019, 05:09:22 pm »

I had Signalman for $10 Win bet. The ADW I use was giving a refund if you your pick  doesnít win but hits the board. I thought he would at least do that.

I simply thought the connections would have him ready for this race and he looked like he would run into a solid pace...oh well!
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userpick

Re: The Triple Crown Trail
« Reply #49 on: March 02, 2019, 06:23:22 pm »

I simply thought the connections would have him ready for this race and he looked like he would run into a solid pace...oh well!

Kenny McSuck! Haha
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