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RPI RIP: New NCAA NET Ratings

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jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1067113386939482114

After hiring consultants to win the RPI game and land a record 8 NCAAT bids in ‘18, SEC is shut out of initial NET Top 10

jbcarol:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

HamIAm:

As was pointed out in one of the links - it's early for decent sample size

SEC team rank
Auburn - 16
Tennessee - 27
Arkansas - 53
Kentucky - 61
Miss St - 66
LSU - 67
Vanderbilt - 71
Florida - 80
Ole Miss - 93|
Missouri - 114
Georgia - 121
Alabama - 130
Texas A&M - 138
South Carolina 162

jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarrenNolan1/status/1070699256560926721

jbcarol:

Vols - 5
Auburn - 10

jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarrenNolan1/status/1073028745563394049

NET Team sheets

jbcarol:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/compare-rankings

jbcarol:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/2019/01/05/bracket-bits-five-top-25-net-rated-teams-with-resume-questions



jbcarol:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net

Warren Nolan calculates and presents the NET ratings and rankings

#69 Arkansas

jbcarol:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/schedule/Indiana

Hoosiers have lost six straight

yraciv:

Hogs net actually went up after TX Tech.

jbcarol:

Warren Nolan
@WarrenNolan1
 10h10 hours ago

Today's NET rankings are out
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
#29 Washington up 2
#44 St. John's up 4
#45 Syracuse up 2
#52 St. Mary's up 3
#61 Arizona State up 3
#77 Fresno State up 5
@FresnoStateMBB @SunDevilHoops @StJohnsBBall @saintmaryshoops @Cuse_MBB @UW_MBB


Vols and Cats on the two line
Arkansas is number 65 (absolute ranking, not a seed list with automatic qualifiers)

jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarrenNolan1/status/1091807604278550528

Committee finally goes back to RPI for the day

jbcarol:

Warren Nolan
‏@WarrenNolan1

I believe one of the stated benefits of the NET over RPI was it can't be gamed. Now, we can see one method to get in the NET top 40
Schedule 8 Home games vs opponents ranked 280+
Run up the score to win by 20-50 points
Get a large NET Efficiency value
RPI of 125 becomes a NET 34


jbcarol:

Warren Nolan
@WarrenNolan1

Latest NET
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
Big Moves this Week
22 Iowa +8
29 Baylor +13
57 Arkansas +12
61 New Mexico St +13
62 Belmont +10
74 Grand Canyon +11
87 UCLA +11
92 Northeastern +22
@UCLAMBB @GCU_MBB @BelmontMBB @NMStateMBB @RazorbackMBB @BaylorMBB @IowaHoops @GoNUmbasketball

jbcarol:

Matt Norlander
@MattNorlander

NCAA Tournament selection committee chair speaks one-on-one with @CBSSports, says he doesn’t expect the specifics of the NET formula to be revealed publicly at any point this season.



--- Quote ---Muir: Since there's a lot of machine learning and nuances to the metrics I should leave up to the experts, what I would say is — based on your question — I'd be heard-pressed to think whether you win by 11 or you win by eight, whether that makes a big difference in our process. What we're going to now acknowledge is the team who's won the game, the team that lost the game, where that game was played and what happened in that game. That's what's most important.

There's thousands of possessions during the course of a season, and so to just boil down to one possession as to where you're going to be on the seed line or whether you're going to be selected or not, I think you're looking at something miniscule. It's much broader than that. If a really good team wins at another place and played well and won by 20, well we take note of that. Does it make a difference if it's 20 or 18? Probably not.
--- End quote ---


jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarrenNolan1/status/1093917578194550784

Latest NET rankings: Arkansas 60


jbcarol:

AP: NCAA Selection Committee Starts Work with New Ranking System

During orientation meetings this week in Indianapolis, the selection committee is getting familiar with NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings.

Chair Bernard Muir: “It’s current.”

jbcarol:

Shelby Mast
‏Verified account@BracketWAG
 1h1 hour ago

I really didn't think this would be possible, but I guess it is. North Carolina State currently has the worst NON CON SOS in D1 - 353 out of 353 - wow

jbcarol:

Warren Nolan@WarrenNolan1
·
4h
It seems that yesterday's NET release from the NCAA had some issues. Only four teams' NET rank changed even though there were 34 teams playing.
Today's NET rankings still have not been released.
Here's the deal …
Give me the NET formula and I will give you Live NET updates

jbcarol:

Warren Nolan
@WarrenNolan1
·
2h
Today's NET is out ... finally
(link: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net) warrennolan.com/basketball/201…
Big Moves
New #1 Duke
#6 Houston +1
#27 Kansas State +1
#32 Texas +1
#33 Baylor +1
#37 Ohio State +1
#65 Oregon +5
@DukeMBB
 
@UHCougarMBK
 
@KStateMBB
 
@TexasMBB
 
@BaylorMBB
 
@OhioStateHoops
 
@OregonMBB


Yale switched spots with Arkansas (62 and 63)

jbcarol:

Warren Nolan
‏@WarrenNolan1
 Feb 13

Today's NET Rankings are online
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
Big Movers
#5 Houston +1
#10 Texas Tech +2
#14 LSU +3
#19 Marquette +2
#25 Kansas State +2
#27 Mississippi State +2
@TexasTechMBB @KStateMBB @MarquetteMBB @LSUBasketball @HailStateMBK @UHCougarMBK

jbcarol:

AL.com sports
‏Verified account@aldotcomSports
 1h1 hour ago

.@AuburnMBB is 0-6 in Quadrant 1 games — one of just a handful of power-conference team to be winless in that category.

They’re now 6-2 in Quadrant 2 games.

https://trib.al/Dc4N2fn


jbcarol:

Jerry Palm
‏Verified account@jppalmCBS
 1h1 hour ago
Jerry Palm Retweeted Ken Kueker

The NET is not used to make decisions. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-faqs-about-the-net-rankings-and-how-the-ncaa-tournament-bracket-is-built-by-the-selection-committee/ …


--- Quote ---NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is the new ratings system that the NCAA created to replace the RPI, which many had felt had outlived its usefulness. The change came about in part due to a request from the National Association of Basketball Coaches, which wanted something more sophisticated than the RPI. The NET debuted with the 2018-19 season.

Q: What is the formula for the NET?

A: Good question. I do not know. It's a secret.

Q: Wait…I thought the NCAA said margin of victory is capped at 10?

A: They did. That is both true and false.

Q: How important is the NET?

A: We have been told it will not be used exactly the same way the RPI wasn't
--- End quote ---

Here's the most recent NET rankings from he NCAA.

jbcarol:

Warren Nolan@WarrenNolan1
 Feb 16

Today's NET is online
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
Big Moves since Feb 10th
#14 LSU +3
#31 NC State +4
#39 UCF +7
#46 Furman +10
#55 Liberty +6
#62 Memphis +6
#73 Tulsa +8
@FurmanHoops @UCF_MBB @PackMensBball @LibertyMBB @Memphis_MBB @TUMBasketball @LSUBasketball



jbcarol:

Warren Nolan@WarrenNolan1
 4h4 hours ago

Today's NET Rankings are online
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
Big Moves
#1 Duke +1
#13 Iowa State +4
#21 Auburn +3
#24 Miss State +3
#26 Wofford +3
#33 Florida +7
@DukeMBB @CycloneMBB @AuburnMBB @HailStateMBK @WoffordMBB @GatorsMBK



jbcarol:

Warren Nolan@WarrenNolan1
 3h3 hours ago

Most Quadrant 1 Wins - Men's College Basketball
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/stats-records-most-q1-wins …

@MSU_Basketball
@KUHoops @KentuckyMBB @DukeMBB @MarquetteMBB @HailStateMBK @UVAMensHoop @BadgerMBB



jbcarol:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net





jbcarol:

Warren Nolan@WarrenNolan1

Today's NET is online
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
Big Moves of the week
#6 UNC +3
#16 Buffalo +7
#34 VCU +9
#38 Saint Mary's CA +9
#70 Dayton +13
#79 Grand Canyon +10
#92 UC  Irvine +10
@UNC_Basketball @UBmenshoops @VCU_Hoops @saintmaryshoops @DaytonMBB @GCU_MBB @UCImbb





jbcarol:

Scott Gleeson
‏Verified account@ScottMGleeson
 3h3 hours ago

@USATODAYSports' NCAA tournament bracketology: How new NET metric snubs Kansas out of a No. 2 seed https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2019/02/25/march-madness-ncaa-tournament-bracketology-bubble-watch-selection-sunday/2977328002/ … via @BracketWAG




--- Quote ---A 64-49 defeat of rival Kansas State on Monday kept Kansas' hopes of winning a 15th consecutive conference championship alive. With three games left, the Jayhawks will need to win out and get some help from others handing losses to K-State and Texas Tech to claim yet another regular-season crown.

Lost in that story line is what a chaotic and parity-filled Big 12 means for the seeding line of Kansas, Texas Tech and Kansas State. All three teams sit at the No. 4 line, and regardless of what the conference standings say (the committee won't pay attention to that anyway) Kansas is best positioned to move up to the No. 3 line based on 10 Quadrant 1 (top-30 home, top-75 road) victories. Iowa State, another team that beat Kansas in league play, holds a No. 5 seed. But how does the country's toughest conference not have a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed in the projected field of 68?

Much of that has to do with the NET, the NCAA's new metric replacing the RPI this season. The tool's biggest advancement is that it measures in-game statistics and gauges how good a team really is, instead of relying heavily on outcomes and data that drive the RPI. That's been a godsend to a team like Gonzaga, which plays in the mid-major West Coast Conference and only has four Quad 1 wins on its profile. The Bulldogs own the nation's No. 1 spot in the NET.

The biggest team hurt by the NET this season is Kansas, which happens to own the nation's best RPI. The Jayhawks hold a No. 20 ranking in the NET despite defeats of projected No. 3 seeds Michigan State, Tennessee and Marquette in non-conference play while also having the country's No. 1 strength of schedule.

Assessing KU's résumé is tricky since injuries come into play here (All-America-caliber big man Udoka Azubuike was ruled out for the season by early December) and the selection committee has to grade a team based on what its identity is on Selection Sunday.

But how the committee looks at KU could illustrate a major shift in how it analyzes teams. If the RPI were still really in play here, this 21-7 Kansas team would still be in the mix as a No. 2 seed...

► No. 1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky

► Last four in: Central Florida, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Alabama

***

•  On life support: ..., Arkansas, ... 
--- End quote ---


jbcarol:

Warren Nolan
‏@WarrenNolan1
 3h3 hours ago

Today's NET is online
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
Big Moves
#14 Iowa State +1
#17 Kansas +3
#24 Mississippi State +1
#47 Furman +1
#50 Belmont +2
#56 New Mexico State +2
@CycloneMBB @KUHoops @FurmanHoops @HailStateMBK @BelmontMBB @NMStateMBB



jbcarol:

Warren Nolan@WarrenNolan1

Today's NET Ranking is online
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …
Big Moves
#11 Virginia Tech +1
#13 LSU +2
#22 Mississippi State +2
#30 NC State +2
#33 Utah State +4
#49 Alabama +4
#94 Utah Valley +5



Arkansas +4 after UK game but .500 overall.

jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarrenNolan1/status/1102238951560093697

Arkansas is +3 after the Ole Miss game.

4. UT
5. UK

jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarrenNolan1/status/1102703119576780801

Warren Nolan displays schools with the most quadrant one wins.

Kentucky, LS, and State are near the top.

jbcarol:

Nothing but NET:

Warren Nolan@WarrenNolan1
 3h3 hours ago

Hey, the NET is finally out
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net …

At 26-3, Tennessee tops the SEC in NET.

Auburn has played the NET well at #20.

Florida (17-13) has a NET of 34 (before tonight's home OT loss to LS)

Bama (17-13) has a NET of 55, one spot above IU (15-14)

Arkansas (16-14) NETs out at 73.



jbcarol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jppalmCBS/status/1104522983153025029

How the committee uses the NET

To determine the quadrants

ErieHog:

Looks like the Hogs sit squarely at 65 after today's win.

jbcarol:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-bubble-watch-net-rankings-could-pay-dividends-to-power-conference-teams

Posits that the power conferences are (will be) the big winners with the NET over the RPI



jbcarol:

Warren Nolan with “nothing but” NET:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net

Arkansas is at 64

jbcarol:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/how-the-2019-ncaa-tournament-bracket-was-built-and-the-selection-committee-used-its-new-stat-net

Teams left out with best NET included Tejas, Clemson, and NC State who had the worst SOS in the modern error.

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