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Author Topic: Markets.......  (Read 6850 times)

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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #150 on: December 27, 2018, 06:25:41 pm »

Why did the market reverse course today at 1:30 pm?
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #151 on: December 27, 2018, 07:51:38 pm »

Why did the market reverse course today at 1:30 pm?

I figure its a stronger than normal move coming out of margin hour due to short positions being covered, pension funds rebalancing, buyback executions, and fund managers rebalancing. From 2:00 onward, bond and stock volumes completely flipped which tends to be symptomatic of large funds needing to rebalance.

I suspect we may get a few more up to sideways days before the market needs to retest 2350 again before getting into earnings season mid to late January.

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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #152 on: December 27, 2018, 08:02:36 pm »

Why did the market reverse course today at 1:30 pm?

I put $10k in to the market.

Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #153 on: December 28, 2018, 09:33:17 am »

I put $10k in to the market.

I also bought a share of JCP with my ashtray change. That moved things up at least 25 bps.
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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #154 on: December 28, 2018, 10:35:57 am »

MJ etf has a 6.44% dividend. I just assumed it didn't have one with so many of its companies not yet cash-positive. I feel stupid, but in a good way.   :P
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Tyro3

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #155 on: December 31, 2018, 02:58:41 pm »

Kmart ate my lunch a long time ago and now Sears is another winner, down about 80K so far but going to hold on to all of my stuff and
just not market watch for awhile.
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HawgWild

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #156 on: December 31, 2018, 03:06:32 pm »

For the year, the Dow industrials were down 5.7%, the S&P 500 off 6.2% and the Nasdaq down 3.8%.
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sevenof400

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #157 on: December 31, 2018, 03:29:39 pm »

For the year, the Dow industrials were down 5.7%, the S&P 500 off 6.2% and the Nasdaq down 3.8%.
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #158 on: December 31, 2018, 04:09:53 pm »

For the year, the Dow industrials were down 5.7%, the S&P 500 off 6.2% and the Nasdaq down 3.8%.

Not bad when you take that off the gains from 2008-2009. I'll take another 10 year run just like the previous one.

Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #159 on: December 31, 2018, 04:32:38 pm »

No rest for the weary. Jobs number is coming Friday. Earnings season gets going here in a few weeks. The sentiment is sell first and ask questions later so 2019 guidance will have hypersensitive reactions. We might see a couple relatively calmer weeks with S&P selling pressure increasing as it approaches 2600. Thatís of course, assuming thereís no new news around trade, tariffs, China, Fed, etc.

At some point, probably late January or early February, weíre probably gonna retest 2350 on the S&P. Expectations are for high single digits (~8%) 2019 earnings growth. I suspect aggregate guidance will come in lower, somewhere around 4-5% earnings growth. Hell, if Iím a CEO, Iím going to under promise and over deliver which is a careful art versus say, sandbagging. 2350 is a no growth level and a sub 14 multiple. The market tends to overshoot so if guidance is where I think it will be, weíre going lower than 2350 on the S&P...probably gonna test the 2150 neighborhood.

At this point, I suggest sitting tight on any major buying and let the market come in again. Iíd also use any strength to raise cash and pay attention to sector movements in the weeks ahead. This is not the type of market to buy and hold blindly so itís time to limber up and get a shopping list going.
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sevenof400

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #160 on: December 31, 2018, 05:03:03 pm »

No rest for the weary. Jobs number is coming Friday. Earnings season gets going here in a few weeks. The sentiment is sell first and ask questions later so 2019 guidance will have hypersensitive reactions. We might see a couple relatively calmer weeks with S&P selling pressure increasing as it approaches 2600. Thatís of course, assuming thereís no new news around trade, tariffs, China, Fed, etc.

At some point, probably late January or early February, weíre probably gonna retest 2350 on the S&P. Expectations are for high single digits (~8%) 2019 earnings growth. I suspect aggregate guidance will come in lower, somewhere around 4-5% earnings growth. Hell, if Iím a CEO, Iím going to under promise and over deliver which is a careful art versus say, sandbagging. 2350 is a no growth level and a sub 14 multiple. The market tends to overshoot so if guidance is where I think it will be, weíre going lower than 2350 on the S&P...probably gonna test the 2150 neighborhood.

At this point, I suggest sitting tight on any major buying and let the market come in again. Iíd also use any strength to raise cash and pay attention to sector movements in the weeks ahead. This is not the type of market to buy and hold blindly so itís time to limber up and get a shopping list going.

Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #161 on: December 31, 2018, 05:14:31 pm »

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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #162 on: December 31, 2018, 06:02:44 pm »

No rest for the weary. Jobs number is coming Friday. Earnings season gets going here in a few weeks. The sentiment is sell first and ask questions later so 2019 guidance will have hypersensitive reactions. We might see a couple relatively calmer weeks with S&P selling pressure increasing as it approaches 2600. Thatís of course, assuming thereís no new news around trade, tariffs, China, Fed, etc.

At some point, probably late January or early February, weíre probably gonna retest 2350 on the S&P. Expectations are for high single digits (~8%) 2019 earnings growth. I suspect aggregate guidance will come in lower, somewhere around 4-5% earnings growth. Hell, if Iím a CEO, Iím going to under promise and over deliver which is a careful art versus say, sandbagging. 2350 is a no growth level and a sub 14 multiple. The market tends to overshoot so if guidance is where I think it will be, weíre going lower than 2350 on the S&P...probably gonna test the 2150 neighborhood.

At this point, I suggest sitting tight on any major buying and let the market come in again. Iíd also use any strength to raise cash and pay attention to sector movements in the weeks ahead. This is not the type of market to buy and hold blindly so itís time to limber up and get a shopping list going.

It's a theory......I'm always of the belief that it you see something you like, buy it. I'll leave it to the market timers to decide when they want to get in.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #163 on: December 31, 2018, 06:10:25 pm »

No rest for the weary. Jobs number is coming Friday. Earnings season gets going here in a few weeks. The sentiment is sell first and ask questions later so 2019 guidance will have hypersensitive reactions. We might see a couple relatively calmer weeks with S&P selling pressure increasing as it approaches 2600. Thatís of course, assuming thereís no new news around trade, tariffs, China, Fed, etc.

At some point, probably late January or early February, weíre probably gonna retest 2350 on the S&P. Expectations are for high single digits (~8%) 2019 earnings growth. I suspect aggregate guidance will come in lower, somewhere around 4-5% earnings growth. Hell, if Iím a CEO, Iím going to under promise and over deliver which is a careful art versus say, sandbagging. 2350 is a no growth level and a sub 14 multiple. The market tends to overshoot so if guidance is where I think it will be, weíre going lower than 2350 on the S&P...probably gonna test the 2150 neighborhood.

At this point, I suggest sitting tight on any major buying and let the market come in again. Iíd also use any strength to raise cash and pay attention to sector movements in the weeks ahead. This is not the type of market to buy and hold blindly so itís time to limber up and get a shopping list going.

Dealing with large company and mid size company CEO's and Presidents, they don't understand or every want to hear sandbagging any more.  That term in todays business world is a jinx.  They expect gains every year or time to look for replacements in positions.  It's sad, because there are years like 2018 for many sectors that took all their capacity and some, and no way is there room for growth in 19.  2019 sets up for a perfect sandbagging year for some businesses.
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sevenof400

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #164 on: January 02, 2019, 12:20:49 pm »

Enjoying the ride today anyone???
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #165 on: January 02, 2019, 04:34:31 pm »

Enjoying the ride today anyone???

Well, hang on, we'll go down, before we go up. Apple's Rev and guidance cut after the market today, ensures we'll test the lows again. Of course, it might make for a trade agreement with China come sooner, than later.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #166 on: January 02, 2019, 04:35:37 pm »

Enjoying the ride today anyone???

Lol. Oh just wait. The ride should be finding a downslope very soon.
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McKdaddy

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #167 on: January 02, 2019, 05:10:29 pm »

Wish Apple's approx 35% drop from its high a few months ago already priced-in weak guidance.....nope.  Getting my seatbelt ready for tomorrow's drop.
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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #168 on: January 02, 2019, 05:16:52 pm »

Wish Apple's approx 35% drop from its high a few months ago already priced-in weak guidance.....nope.  Getting my seatbelt ready for tomorrow's drop.
Do you have access to after hours quotes? It's down $12 right now.
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #169 on: January 02, 2019, 06:06:50 pm »

Do you have access to after hours quotes? It's down $12 right now.

I suspect he's talking about the market as a whole.
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vandybuff

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #170 on: January 02, 2019, 06:13:36 pm »

No bottom fishing at JCP.

I recently returned a shirt with no receipt and they gave me 80 shares of stock! 
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #171 on: January 02, 2019, 06:18:08 pm »

I recently returned a shirt with no receipt and they gave me 80 shares of stock! 

Hate to hear that. Shirt was worth more.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #172 on: January 02, 2019, 06:48:20 pm »

Yeah, AAPL will have the Dow open 300 and change down most likely tomorrow. Itís down 8% in extended hours or around $146.60. The added bad news is they wonít report earnings and more thorough guidance until 1/31 I believe. So, minus a trade deal, the stock is in no manís land for the month. I think some of the revenue miss and guidance drop is priced in here. The market overshoots though and AAPL has always had a low P/E. I think it could move to $123.50 near term which is around 9.5 times next yearís EPS.

More broadly, I think weíre only getting started with pre announced lower guidance and ultimately, the S&P 8% earnings growth estimate will get slashed in half to 4%. Might even get to flat. Regardless, sentiment is fragile so I think the S&P unwinds below 2350 on the way back to 2150. Thatís of course, minus a trade deal.

To cap off the bad news, you can consider a potential trade deal as having diminishing upside impact. The longer it takes, the less bounce it generates. I think itís worth 10% today but half that by February. All the more reason to be more nimble if you can. No one can perfectly time the market but you can work to better minimize some damage.

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McKdaddy

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #173 on: January 02, 2019, 06:58:03 pm »

Do you have access to after hours quotes? It's down $12 right now.


I do
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McKdaddy

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #174 on: January 02, 2019, 06:58:14 pm »

I suspect he's talking about the market as a whole.

Yes
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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #175 on: January 02, 2019, 11:38:15 pm »

AAPL down 11.92  Last Updated: Jan 2, 2019 7:59 p.m. EST

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl
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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #176 on: January 03, 2019, 07:06:53 am »

-13.39 -8.48%
Premarket
Last Updated: Jan 3, 2019 at 8:06 a.m. EST Delayed quote
$144.75

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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #177 on: January 03, 2019, 07:52:16 am »

Apple stock price target cut to $140 from $240 at Goldman Sachs
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onebadrubi

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #178 on: January 03, 2019, 07:52:30 am »

Good time to buy some apple soon?
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #179 on: January 03, 2019, 08:10:03 am »

Good time to buy some apple soon?

I think it bottoms around $123 maybe even $120 if the multiple really gets hammered. Given their earnings release isn't til 1/31, I think there is more downside ahead and a better level to buy.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 09:24:25 am by Boardon Hamsay »
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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #180 on: January 03, 2019, 09:46:16 am »

Mohammed El-Arian was asked this am if there'll be a recession in 2019. "Not unless there is a major policy mistake." In other words, yes (imho).
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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #181 on: January 03, 2019, 09:48:46 am »

Charts looking bad. I think we'll retest 2350 soon.  :(

HawgWild

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #182 on: January 03, 2019, 09:51:09 am »

"Glitch"

Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #183 on: January 03, 2019, 10:54:21 am »

Charts looking bad. I think we'll retest 2350 soon.  :(

Worse, I think the 2350 retest will fail.

DAL pre-announced lower guidance today as well. If the rails start to pre-announce downward, hold on to your hats as that would confirm Dow theory has broken down and 2350 is probably a new ceiling of resistance until Q3.

The ISM manufacturing number also came in horribly soft vs expectations, reverting back to pre-2016 election levels and was the largest month to month decline in a decade.

The early jobs number looks strong and tomorrow's non farm payroll number if too hot, could enhance the sell off.  In terms of the job number (and how it may impact the Fed's future rate hike potential) we're getting more into no man's land. If the number comes in soft, it would be good for slowing down the rate hikes but then could raise even more slowing economy concerns.  A hot number would be bad in that it could strengthen the Powell's awful "two hikes for 2019" drivel. The eye in which we need the jobs number to thread is getting really tight.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #184 on: January 03, 2019, 10:55:58 am »

"Glitch"

Yeah, Trump/Trump's ego still hasn't learned that what the markets gives, it can violently take away. Glitch will seem mild going forward, I fear.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #185 on: January 03, 2019, 10:58:05 am »

from only a financial/stock market aspect, no political agenda, do you guys think a trade deal is going to rebound this stagnate market? 

Appears a few of you in here are smarter than me or even in this business as a profession, so just curious.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #186 on: January 03, 2019, 11:11:42 am »

from only a financial/stock market aspect, no political agenda, do you guys think a trade deal is going to rebound this stagnate market? 

Appears a few of you in here are smarter than me or even in this business as a profession, so just curious.

IMHO, a trade deal will have diminishing upside impact. If a deal is made now, the market goes up 10-12%. If a deal is made in late February, the market goes up 5-6%.  A deal isn't going to magically correct slowing global growth. A deal would be much like last year's tax reform sugar high.

Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #187 on: January 03, 2019, 11:20:59 am »

As it relates specifically to $AAPL, I think you have to wait until after the 1/31 earnings call to buy it. First of all, any analyst downgrades to come will create more downward pressure.

For perspective, even Jim Cramer, who is as bullish Apple as it gets minus Warren Buffett, said it goes to $120 today. Second, the earnings call should be able to shed further forward guidance light. We don't know if there's more problems to come so buying here seems short run reckless.  If you subscribe to the rule of wait 30 days before buying a stock that guided down, you can buy Apple in February worst case, with more information at hand.

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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #188 on: January 03, 2019, 11:35:23 am »

Mohammed El-Arian was asked this am if there'll be a recession in 2019. "Not unless there is a major policy mistake." In other words, yes (imho).

I think the better question is will the market price for the next recession in 2019?

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #189 on: January 03, 2019, 01:06:45 pm »

I think the better question is will the market price for the next recession in 2019?

Do you write a letter? Serious question, not do you write a letter, but are you in the industry, or just an investor? You may have stated this before, just curious on your financial background.
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je100

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #190 on: January 03, 2019, 01:44:56 pm »

IMHO, a trade deal will have diminishing upside impact. If a deal is made now, the market goes up 10-12%. If a deal is made in late February, the market goes up 5-6%.  A deal isn't going to magically correct slowing global growth. A deal would be much like last year's tax reform sugar high.

Trump is in a little bit of a pickle as he is, as by all accounts, he is obsessed with the stock market - which is probably correct given the number of tweets over the last year.  As a result of those tweets, in a marketing sense, he owns the market win or lose.  By the way, I'm not making a judgment on whether his policies had significant effect on the market. 

So, the tariffs are the sugar for the market that he now owns.  To get the sugar, he will need to come away with something substantial for the markets, if he comes with anything.  If he doesn't' get something substantial, the markets will sniff it out.
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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #191 on: January 03, 2019, 01:57:09 pm »

AAPL
$142.51
-15.415 -9.76%

Last Updated: Jan 3, 2019 at 2:56 p.m. EST
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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #192 on: January 03, 2019, 01:59:17 pm »



Citiís Levkovich cuts S&P 500 target as sentiment enters panic mode
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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #193 on: January 03, 2019, 02:04:23 pm »

The woman who nailed 2018 stock-market volatility blowup now warns of Ďbubbliciounessí in loans. She has also been through 3 divorces, so her picking may be suspect

That brings us to our call of the day from Davis, who told MarketWatch that corners of the debt market, particularly private credit markets like leveraged loans, are Ēvery frothy,Ē because ďa lot of investors have used leveraged loansĒ as a way of getting richer yields.

She also said those complex purchases of loans, which are used partly to finance private-equity transactions, may be fostering much of the current volatility exhibited by global equity markets.

The leveraged-loan borrowing in the U.S. has quietly ballooned over the past two years, surging way beyond levels since during the 2007 financial crisis. Such borrowing in the U.S. hit a record in 2017 at $1.66 trillion and was at $1.46 trillion in 2018, according to Dealogic. That represents the biggest two-year growth ever in the industry (see table below).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-woman-who-predicted-the-2018-stock-market-volatility-blowup-now-warns-of-bubbliciouness-in-loans-2019-01-03
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #194 on: January 03, 2019, 02:43:30 pm »

Do you write a letter? Serious question, not do you write a letter, but are you in the industry, or just an investor? You may have stated this before, just curious on your financial background.

I'm just an investor that enjoyed quite a few elective investment, econ, and finance classes in college at the UofA.  That gave me the fundamental analysis side of understanding markets. My day job is a supply chain analyst so that probably feeds into also enjoying the technical analysis side of understanding market movements.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 06:36:02 pm by Boardon Hamsay »
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #195 on: January 03, 2019, 03:06:32 pm »

Trump is in a little bit of a pickle as he is, as by all accounts, he is obsessed with the stock market - which is probably correct given the number of tweets over the last year.  As a result of those tweets, in a marketing sense, he owns the market win or lose.  By the way, I'm not making a judgment on whether his policies had significant effect on the market. 

So, the tariffs are the sugar for the market that he now owns.  To get the sugar, he will need to come away with something substantial for the markets, if he comes with anything.  If he doesn't' get something substantial, the markets will sniff it out.

He's attached himself to a market that was initially setup for success irregardless of politics. Whether his policies turn the market into another Atlantic City, remains to be seen. The main concern is, since he never thinks he's wrong, he likely will never learn from his policy mistakes.

The issue I've always had with supply side economics (which Trump subscribes to) is that 1) it requires continual stimulus to continue, 2) doesn't account for said stimulus having diminishing impacts due to moving to a more mature point in the business cycle, and 3) assumes that capex from lower taxes perfectly go back into stimulating more supply as opposed to companies buying back stock, pocketing the extra cash, etc.  Said differently, it's only a matter of time before demand dictates the impact of supply side economic policies.
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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #196 on: January 03, 2019, 04:58:54 pm »

please enumerate his policy mistakes that would cause disasters like these

JOBS UP BIG!
+312,000
RECORD NUMBER WORKING
MANUFACTURING BEST IN 20 YEARS
HISPANIC UNEMPLOYMENT LOWEST EVER
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 10:51:20 am by Pat Goss »
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Pat Goss

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #197 on: January 04, 2019, 03:44:33 pm »

Housing Jobs Up
Manufacturing Jobs Up
Retail Jobs Up

only leftists are feeling down
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je100

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #198 on: January 04, 2019, 04:11:44 pm »

Housing Jobs Up
Manufacturing Jobs Up
Retail Jobs Up

only leftists are feeling down

I don't know too many people that put their politics in front of a 3% day. 
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HawgWild

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #199 on: January 04, 2019, 05:12:08 pm »

I don't know too many people that put their politics in front of a 3% day.

Our President does but only if the market is up.
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