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Author Topic: My take on current commits  (Read 8807 times)

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bennyl08

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Re: My take on current commits
« Reply #50 on: March 13, 2019, 02:55:56 pm »


It probably didn't help that he suffered a season-ending injury during the first drive against Texas A&M.  Up until that time, he was tied for t-3rd on the team with 5 receptions (1st among TEs).

Averaging one catch a game, and O'Grady wasn't playing most of that time either. If you project his stats from the first 5 games he played in before the injury, you get 12 receptions for 108 yards and no td's as his season stats. He'd need about 4 times that to just have a good but not great season. Further, remember the videos of players quitting on plays mid game? Patton was the "star" of several of them.

I forgot that he never came back from his injury despite it initially being reported that he should be able to come back later in the season. Given that neither Cantrell or Gunter were used much and how little Patton was used before his injury, do you think if he would have come back, he'd have averaged more than 1 rec for 9 yards per game?
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Hawg Law 7

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Re: My take on current commits
« Reply #51 on: March 13, 2019, 03:46:11 pm »

Averaging one catch a game, and O'Grady wasn't playing most of that time either. If you project his stats from the first 5 games he played in before the injury, you get 12 receptions for 108 yards and no td's as his season stats. He'd need about 4 times that to just have a good but not great season. Further, remember the videos of players quitting on plays mid game? Patton was the "star" of several of them.

I forgot that he never came back from his injury despite it initially being reported that he should be able to come back later in the season. Given that neither Cantrell or Gunter were used much and how little Patton was used before his injury, do you think if he would have come back, he'd have averaged more than 1 rec for 9 yards per game?

I'm not sure he would have averaged much more than that, but that's mostly due to the emergence of O'Grady at that point in the season.  However, if you were to remove O'Grady from the equation then I think it's reasonable to believe Patton would have averaged more than 1 rec/9 yds per game.  Patton's injury came right at the time Storey finally solidified himself as the starter.  By my count after reviewing the ESPN play-by-plays for the first 4 games + first drive of A&M game, Patton was targeted 11 times.  9 of those targets were from Storey, and 2 from Kelley.  During that same span, Storey attempted 62 total passes, while Kelley had 56 attempts.  That means Patton was targeted on roughly 15% of Storey's pass attempts, as opposed to about 4% of Kelley's.
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bennyl08

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Re: My take on current commits
« Reply #52 on: March 27, 2019, 07:08:00 pm »

I'm not sure he would have averaged much more than that, but that's mostly due to the emergence of O'Grady at that point in the season.  However, if you were to remove O'Grady from the equation then I think it's reasonable to believe Patton would have averaged more than 1 rec/9 yds per game.  Patton's injury came right at the time Storey finally solidified himself as the starter.  By my count after reviewing the ESPN play-by-plays for the first 4 games + first drive of A&M game, Patton was targeted 11 times.  9 of those targets were from Storey, and 2 from Kelley.  During that same span, Storey attempted 62 total passes, while Kelley had 56 attempts.  That means Patton was targeted on roughly 15% of Storey's pass attempts, as opposed to about 4% of Kelley's.

Your match checks out, though one of those completions was wiped out by penalty on Wagner. However, 50% completion percentage (54.5% if you include the one wiped out by penalty), 0/3 on third down, 25 yards in penalty (41 yards if you include the lost gains) to compare to 45 yards gained.

I just don't see it. Nearly matching your positive yards with penalty and yards lost due to penalty. Coin flip whether you catch the ball or not, and you don't even get the benefit of coming through in crunch time with 0/3 on third down and one of those was a 3rd and goal from the 5. All of his completions from Ty came on 2nd down.

Though, just for fun, looking at Ty's season stats, and Patton's performance catching balls from Ty, that would put Patton at 37.5 targets on the season, but Patton caught 4 of 9 passes from Storey, so those 37.5 targets would lead to 16.66 receptions. He caught those 4 passes for 34 yards from Storey, so that's 8.5 ypc, so that would add up to 141.66 total yards. Which, per game, would be ... ~1.4 rec/game and 11.8 yards/game (still using the 8.5 ypc).

So I guess you could argue we'd both be a bit right. For all intents and purposes, even consuming 15% of Storey's targets, Patton wouldn't do much more than I said, but technically, yeah, he'd get 5 receptions and about 34 more yards than I projected over an entire season. Though, he'd also average .75 penalties for 6.25 total penalty yards (10.25  net lost yards) per game as well.
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