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Author Topic: Things that make you go hmmm..  (Read 3864 times)

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razorbackmaniac_

Things that make you go hmmm..
« on: February 13, 2019, 10:56:19 pm »

Story posted on elitecollegefootball's instagram today..

"CRAZY story of the day:247 composite and Rivals rank a FAKE RECRUIT. Blake Carrienger is a 6'6, 315lb Offensive Tackle from Grace Christian HS in Knoxville, Tennessee. Blake hold offers from Georgia, Florida, and Alabama among others, and has been rated as a 3 star on 247 and Rivals.

He also doesn't exist.
Some students made a fake twitter account of this player without posting ANY film, tweeted out that they had offers from Alabama, etc. and without seeing ANY film or evaluating at all, Rivals put him on the site as a 3 star with a 5.5 rating and gave him a full article on his "evaluation" without even seeing him play. 247s composite found it and posted on their composite but not their top 247 rankings. Rivals has not come out and said anything about this.. Basically, the recruiting sites got catfished."

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bt1wbzpB5QD/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1ecb01jo9s8rx
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 01:32:54 pm by razorbackmaniac_ »
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PEtrader

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2019, 10:59:16 pm »

Haha
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247Hog

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2019, 11:15:15 pm »

Yes! I approve of this message  :D :D :D :D
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hawg1221

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2019, 11:23:48 pm »

This story is awesome! I love it when people get caught.

hawg1221

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2019, 11:26:20 pm »

If this IS true, I can't wait for an explanation.
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hawg1221

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2019, 11:29:09 pm »

I mean if this is really true, the entire ranking system becomes questionable.

razorbackmaniac_

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2019, 11:36:19 pm »

It just goes to show that a recruits' ranking may weigh heavily on what their off list is/and or what team they are committed to. Which is what this board has been saying for a while now.

Matt Ryan

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2019, 11:42:51 pm »

Wow. I wish I would have thought of doing that
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Tick Hog

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2019, 11:44:15 pm »

Ha ha nice.
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PigPusher

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2019, 12:24:26 am »

It has already been established that the recruiting services rely a lot on the desires of the top schools for their evaluations. It has now been established that they have a cookie jar, ha!

redeye

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2019, 01:39:20 am »

My understanding is that they rely on players to list their offers, and they mostly only concentrate on players with P5 offers, so while this is funny, I don't really find it surprising.  I bet an Alabama insider saw the tweet and just added the player without checking.

cpohog

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2019, 04:37:02 am »

But, but, but if Bama offers he's gotta be good right? LOL! How did we miss this one!?!?!
 ;)

razorbackfaninar

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2019, 05:01:31 am »

There’s also this interesting story in the same vein. I think part of the problem is that moreso than any time in the past, anyone who wants to spend the time can fact check and follow up a lot of the things that go on in recruiting

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2019/2/12/18220507/texas-am-recruiting-rankings-2019

LZH

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2019, 07:03:21 am »

This is exactly in line with what I was asking just a few days ago. If these sites are just depending on someone else’s evaluation (teams/coaches), then what flippin good are they?

I think it’s hilarious and hope they all-out crawfish instead of just admitting their bs, it would make them look even more phony.

Shorttimer

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2019, 08:36:01 am »

It's just more proof of what we've all suspected.  Alabama doesn't recruit 5-stars.  They recruit the players they want and they become 5-stars. 

PharmacistHog

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2019, 08:59:36 am »

It's just more proof of what we've all suspected.  Alabama doesn't recruit 5-stars.  They recruit the players they want and they become 5-stars. 

Which makes Saban's run look even more impressive. 

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2019, 09:24:07 am »

It's just more proof of what we've all suspected.  Alabama doesn't recruit 5-stars.  They recruit the players they want and they become 5-stars. 

Very good observation. It also tells you how little effort goes into some of the recruitnik media out there.
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Hugo Bezdek

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2019, 09:38:31 am »

Story posted on elitecollegefootball's instagram today..

"CRAZY story of the day:247 composite and Rivals rank a FAKE RECRUIT. Blake Carrienger is a 6'6, 315lb Offensive Tackle from Grace Christian HS in Knoxville, Tennessee. Blake hold offers from Georgia, Florida, and Alabama among others, and has been rated as a 3 star on 247 and Rivals.

He also doesn't exist.
Some students made a fake twitter account of this player without posting ANY film, tweeted out that they had offers from Alabama, etc. and without seeing ANY film or evaluating at all, Rivals put him on the site as a 3 star with a 5.5 rating and gave him a full article on his "evaluation" without even seeing him play. 247s composite found it and posted on on their composite but not their top 247 rankings. Rivals has not come out and said anything about this.. Basically, the recruiting sites got catfished."

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bt1wbzpB5QD/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1ecb01jo9s8rx

I think this says all you need to know about recruiting class rankings. Garbage in, garbage out. Many of the individual ratings are based on who has offered rather than actual evaluation. The rankings then become a self-perpetuating cycle. Good programs get good recruits and develop them, so they keep winning. Until you develop a winning program you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt on your coaching evaluations unless you're getting kids that were also offered by the proven winners. In other words, your classes won't get top ratings until after the gurus believe you're a winner. You have to have talent to win, but these ranking systems are dubious at best.
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oldhawg

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2019, 09:43:00 am »

Yet there is still a correlation between recruiting rankings and championships.  Consistently rank in the top ten (recruiting), and you are likely to be in the hunt for conference championships and national accolades.
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Hugo Bezdek

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2019, 09:52:26 am »

Yet there is still a correlation between recruiting rankings and championships.  Consistently rank in the top ten (recruiting), and you are likely to be in the hunt for conference championships and national accolades.

Correlation is not causation. Recruits offered by winning programs get high ratings, therefore those programs' recruiting classes are rated highly.
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Shorttimer

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #20 on: February 14, 2019, 09:56:53 am »

Yet there is still a correlation between recruiting rankings and championships.  Consistently rank in the top ten (recruiting), and you are likely to be in the hunt for conference championships and national accolades.
I agree. But I think it proves that recruiting rankings are somewhat of a lag indicator instead of a lead indicator. 

Alabama's success is almost unprecedented.  Therefore, the assumption (probably correctly so) is that they recruit better players.  So the recruiting services acknowledge that by improving the rankings of anyone recruited by Alabama.  Consequently, Alabama's recruits are highly rated because they are Alabama recruits.

The same is also true for players recruited by Ohio St., Clemson, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Texas, etc.  And when a player is actively recruited by all of those schools, they get their stars.  Honestly, analyzing the schools who are after a kid is way more telling than a recruiting guru (probably with loose ties to a particular school) looking at a few snippets of film and arbitrarily assigning stars.

   
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plumbhog

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2019, 10:46:23 am »

Still makes sense though. If a RB is being offered by Bama, Georgia, and LSU, even without ever seeing him wouldn't you naturally think he is better than one that's best offers are from Memphis, ASU, and UConn?
 
Also if one decides to sign with say Rice over the likes of Georgia for whatever reason. He will likely never put up the numbers that he would if he had chosen Georgia. Therefor he may see a drop in his rating but probably would have received a bump had he chosen Georgia. Odd's are he would see more open field with Georgia blocking for him than Rice. Could also throw up a red flag that you may not be very smart.
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oldhawg

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2019, 11:05:18 am »

Correlation is not causation. Recruits offered by winning programs get high ratings, therefore those programs' recruiting classes are rated highly.

Correct.  But at some point in time one has to wonder how great the difference is between correlation and causation (if any) as teams with top ten recruiting rankings continue to enjoy the most success.
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Deep Shoat

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #23 on: February 14, 2019, 11:05:50 am »

I agree. But I think it proves that recruiting rankings are somewhat of a lag indicator instead of a lead indicator. 

Alabama's success is almost unprecedented.  Therefore, the assumption (probably correctly so) is that they recruit better players.  So the recruiting services acknowledge that by improving the rankings of anyone recruited by Alabama.  Consequently, Alabama's recruits are highly rated because they are Alabama recruits.

The same is also true for players recruited by Ohio St., Clemson, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Texas, etc.  And when a player is actively recruited by all of those schools, they get their stars.  Honestly, analyzing the schools who are after a kid is way more telling than a recruiting guru (probably with loose ties to a particular school) looking at a few snippets of film and arbitrarily assigning stars.

 
You might also consider the size and/or rabid nature of the perennial Top 10 recruiting program's fan bases (potential subscriptions) into account.

The fact is, my grandma can identify the best player's in the nation.  And she's been dead since '92.  After that, it's just catering to increase revenue and allowing Nick and Dabo to do their work for them.
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Deep Shoat

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2019, 11:06:48 am »

Correct.  But at some point in time one has to wonder how great the difference is between correlation and causation (if any) as teams with top ten recruiting rankings continue to enjoy the most success.
I suggest that teams with the most success (and the largest, most rabid fanbases) get the best recruiting classes.

liljo

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #25 on: February 14, 2019, 11:30:32 am »

I mean if this is really true, the entire ranking system becomes questionable.

BECOMES?!?!?!

Shorttimer

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #26 on: February 14, 2019, 12:14:34 pm »

I think the rankings would be just as accurate if they were done as follows:

5-Star
-Anyone who gets an in-home from Saban and commits to Bama or Ohio State
-Anyone who gets an in-home from Swinney + an in-home from 5 other P5 head coaches

4-Star
-Anyone who gets an in-home from the Alabama coaching staff w/o Saban
-Anyone who gets an in-home from Swinney
-Anyone offered by Ohio State
-Anyone who gets an in-home with Saban but commits to any school besides Ohio State
-Anyone who visits Texas

3-Star
Everybody else (including fictional offensive linemen)

presidenthog

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #27 on: February 14, 2019, 12:16:43 pm »

All anyone needs to so is go watch the pony excess to figure out the big dogs recruiting ideas. They wanted people who can play in the NFL right  now. So they don't waste their time offering anyone who they believe isnt the best. Those big time programs know their own clout. So they offer kids who are the best. Thus the recruiting services follow their lead. Its all tied together, and yes there is bias in the ratings because of it. Those programs have more money, so they hire the best assistants. The best assistants evaluate better than others.

In the end its a wash. I still think we got enough good players that if we do this 4 times in a row we will be very very good. Just need to develop those guys.
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ThisTeetsTaken

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #28 on: February 14, 2019, 12:22:44 pm »

All anyone needs to so is go watch the pony excess to figure out the big dogs recruiting ideas. They wanted people who can play in the NFL right  now. So they don't waste their time offering anyone who they believe isnt the best. Those big time programs know their own clout. So they offer kids who are the best. Thus the recruiting services follow their lead. Its all tied together, and yes there is bias in the ratings because of it. Those programs have more money, so they hire the best assistants. The best assistants evaluate better than others.

In the end its a wash. I still think we got enough good players that if we do this 4 times in a row we will be very very good. Just need to develop those guys.
Someone still has to coach them and call plays.
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #29 on: February 14, 2019, 12:27:46 pm »

Boom! This leads credence to things that real recruiting guys have hinted at. I would love to read what a real recruiting guy, our own Otis Kirk, has to say about this.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 03:31:11 pm by Inhogswetrust »
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Rudy Baylor

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2019, 12:28:14 pm »

I mean if this is really true, the entire ranking system becomes questionable.


It's been worse than questionable for years. They sell clicks.

"High school combines" - produced by the clickmeisters - are a farce.
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Rudy Baylor

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2019, 12:31:04 pm »

It also tells you how little effort goes into some of the recruitnik media out there.

spot on

This guy has been after them for years, and no one listens. https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/mick-mccabe/2015/02/12/underwear-olympics-recruiting/23325505/

OneTuskOverTheLine™

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2019, 12:46:05 pm »

I mean if this is really true, the entire ranking system becomes questionable.

Duh.!?!
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Rudy Baylor

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2019, 12:47:10 pm »

Yet there is still a correlation between recruiting rankings and championships. 

Wrong. There's a pattern on who keeps winning.

The "recruiting rankings" are plagiarized from that



OneTuskOverTheLine™

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #34 on: February 14, 2019, 12:49:37 pm »

Wrong. There's a pattern on who keeps winning.

The "recruiting rankings" are plagiarized from that


 Troof Bomb.!!!
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oldhawg

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #35 on: February 14, 2019, 01:46:02 pm »

Wrong. There's a pattern on who keeps winning.

The "recruiting rankings" are plagiarized from that



Also makes sense.  If Arkansas ever starts winning on a consistent basis, the Razorbacks can be among those schools that influence recruiting rankings, and then see their rankings go up.  Under this premise, their winning does correlate to recruiting rankings.

I think that we talking about essentially the same thing.

jabberjawls

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #36 on: February 14, 2019, 02:29:31 pm »

Apparently Alabama got trolled too since they gave him an offer.  And if he had an offer from Alabama, then i guarantee that he was at least a 3 star.  So what's the problem?
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TXHog30

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #37 on: February 14, 2019, 02:40:49 pm »

Apparently Alabama got trolled too since they gave him an offer.  And if he had an offer from Alabama, then i guarantee that he was at least a 3 star.  So what's the problem?

Did you read the article? Why do you think that?

The highschool pranksters made up all the offers on the fake Twitter account.

Alabama didn't offer him. What would they even have offered him based off of? He wasn't real. Who would they send the offer to?

It's a problem because there was no verification he was a real player on a roster, and there was no film. It goes to show how lazy some of the recruiting services ( at least whoever created the profile on Rivals) can be.

redeye

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #38 on: February 14, 2019, 02:58:00 pm »


It's a problem because there was no verification he was a real player on a roster, and there was no film. It goes to show how lazy some of the recruiting services ( at least whoever created the profile on Rivals) can be.

You could also argue it's a problem because they simply took "his" word for the offers he's received (or in this case, his tweet).  Of course, if the pranksters hadn't included the offers, then Rivals probably wouldn't have even added the player.

We hear about players fudging their offer lists all the time and it showing up on Rivals or 247.  I assume there's no way to get around this and still publish timely/relevant information, though (relevant, as long as you understand that it's not completely accurate, ironically).

TXHog30

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #39 on: February 14, 2019, 03:11:15 pm »

You could also argue it's a problem because they simply took "his" word for the offers he's received (or in this case, his tweet).  Of course, if the pranksters hadn't included the offers, then Rivals probably wouldn't have even added the player.

We hear about players fudging their offer lists all the time and it showing up on Rivals or 247.  I assume there's no way to get around this and still publish timely/relevant information, though (relevant, as long as you understand that it's not completely accurate, ironically).

I'm honestly very curious on what verification for the offers takes place, if ANY. This faux recruit leads me to believe their simply is no verification taking place.

I was in highschool once (not crazy long ago, fairly young) and I would bet my last dollar that some of these recruits fudge offers. Although it's a fine line they'd have to toe. If you fudged an offer from Texas, and then you end up going to Abilene Christian, people will ask why you didn't go to UT.

I read an article this morning on a kid 10 years ago who had a fake hat ceremony and everything out in Nevada. The school had an assembly, tv crews etc..
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redeye

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #40 on: February 14, 2019, 03:54:20 pm »

I'm honestly very curious on what verification for the offers takes place, if ANY. This faux recruit leads me to believe their simply is no verification taking place.

I've heard recruiting experts say they have no way of verifying offers and so they just report what they're told by the recruit (I think RD has mentioned this before, but don't hold me to that).  I'm sure the truth eventually comes out, but maybe not in time for it to matter.

To me, the biggest thing to gain from this is that recruiting rankings aren't everything they're cracked out to be.  I still think they hold value and do a good job of predicting future success, but I also take them with a grain of salt.

Quote from: TXHog30
I read an article this morning on a kid 10 years ago who had a fake hat ceremony and everything out in Nevada. The school had an assembly, tv crews etc..

I remember that and it was funny...  ;D 
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oldhawg

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #41 on: February 14, 2019, 04:07:46 pm »

I've heard recruiting experts say they have no way of verifying offers and so they just report what they're told by the recruit (I think RD has mentioned this before, but don't hold me to that).  I'm sure the truth eventually comes out, but maybe not in time for it to matter.

To me, the biggest thing to gain from this is that recruiting rankings aren't everything they're cracked out to be.  I still think they hold value and do a good job of predicting future success, but I also take them with a grain of salt.

I remember that and it was funny...  ;D 

I also recall that event.  Seems like the school he picked was not all that amused, trying to figure out what happened.
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razorbackmaniac_

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #42 on: February 14, 2019, 04:31:43 pm »

"I also recall that event.  Seems like the school he picked was not all that amused, trying to figure out what happened."

He ended up signing with a DII school.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/recruiting/football/story/_/id/7525340/kevin-hart-recruit-lied-california-golden-bears-sign-missouri-western-state

Jim Harris

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #43 on: February 14, 2019, 04:38:10 pm »

I think the rankings would be just as accurate if they were done as follows:

5-Star
-Anyone who gets an in-home from Saban and commits to Bama or Ohio State
-Anyone who gets an in-home from Swinney + an in-home from 5 other P5 head coaches

4-Star
-Anyone who gets an in-home from the Alabama coaching staff w/o Saban
-Anyone who gets an in-home from Swinney
-Anyone offered by Ohio State
-Anyone who gets an in-home with Saban but commits to any school besides Ohio State
-Anyone who visits Texas

3-Star
Everybody else (including fictional offensive linemen)

what about the players who get an in-home from Saban but still don't commit to Alabama or Ohio State.

KJ Hill would be a five-star based on your original statement of an in-home from Saban and committing to either Alabama or Ohio State.
Jordan Jones would fit in somewhere wherever you decide getting a Saban home visit but not committing to Alabama (or Ohio State).

redeye

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #44 on: February 14, 2019, 07:43:21 pm »

what about the players who get an in-home from Saban but still don't commit to Alabama or Ohio State.

KJ Hill would be a five-star based on your original statement of an in-home from Saban and committing to either Alabama or Ohio State.
Jordan Jones would fit in somewhere wherever you decide getting a Saban home visit but not committing to Alabama (or Ohio State).

Pretty sure we have several who received in-home visits from Saban, but our only 5* is Agim.

As a result of this fake recruit, 247 will no longer include ratings for kids they haven't rated, yet.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/14/18224994/blake-carringer-fake-recruit-247-rivals-recruiting-rankings

I hate to see this, although I can't say that I blame them.  My guess is that this will hurt lower rated teams, if they're less likely to receive points in the Composite, because they sign more players only rated by 1 service.

I think I'll just stick with Tom Lemmings in the future.  At the very least, we know he's actually seen the players.
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Shorttimer

Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2019, 08:03:54 pm »

what about the players who get an in-home from Saban but still don't commit to Alabama or Ohio State.

KJ Hill would be a five-star based on your original statement of an in-home from Saban and committing to either Alabama or Ohio State.
Jordan Jones would fit in somewhere wherever you decide getting a Saban home visit but not committing to Alabama (or Ohio State).
I probably should have put more than 90 seconds of thought into my new ranking system. There are a few flaws but I’ll get that ironed out in version 2.0. 

But my initial reaction is that a Saban visit with a commitment to anywhere else would give you 4-stars.

Also, a QB prospect visited by Lincoln Riley should be a 5-star as should any recruit visited by a shirtless Jim Harbaugh.
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Dark Helmet Hog

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2019, 08:09:26 pm »

Recruiting rankings are similar to the Jedi mind trick.
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Deep Shoat

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #47 on: February 14, 2019, 08:58:59 pm »

I wonder where all the stargazers are.  Because they sure ain't in this thread...
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PonderinHog

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #48 on: February 14, 2019, 10:04:16 pm »

I wonder where all the stargazers are.  Because they sure ain't in this thread...
They're out looking longingly at the night sky.
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PORKULATOR

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Re: Things that make you go hmmm..
« Reply #49 on: February 14, 2019, 11:07:26 pm »

I think this says a lot about the recruiting class rankings. You sign with Bama or Ohio Stench and you may just make 5*
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