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Author Topic: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:  (Read 1523 times)

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Atlhogfan1

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   W-L   PCT   CONF   STRK
1Tennessee   21-1   .955   9-0   W17
2Kentucky   19-3   .864   8-1   W9
3LSU   18-4   .818   8-1   W1
4South Carolina   11-11   .500   6-3   L1
5Auburn   16-6   .727   5-4   W3
6Ole Miss   15-7   .682   5-4   W1
7Alabama   14-8   .636   5-4   W1
8Arkansas   14-8   .636   5-4   W3
9Mississippi State   16-6   .727   4-5   L1
10Florida   12-10   .545   4-5   L2
11Missouri   11-10   .524   2-7   L1
12Georgia   10-12   .455   1-8   L3
13Texas A&M   8-13   .381   1-8   L3
14Vanderbilt   9-13   .409   0-9   L10


Notes on remaining schedules:
Tennessee - two games with UK left plus at Ole Miss, at LSU and at AU
UK - two games with UT, at Miss St this weekend, at Ole Miss
LSU - turning tougher starting last night: have to play AU and Tenn at home, at UK and 2 games with Florida
SC - a little bit of reality has set in with losses to UK and UT and a trip to UT coming up next week.  Still get to finish with Mizzou, A&M and UGa. 
AU - at LSU and at UK, finish with UT
OM - reality setting in here too, road games left at AU and at Ark and home games with UK and Tenn.
Bama - schedule is not too bad, LSU and AU at home, trip to Ark to finish.  2 games with Vandy + A&M and SC.
Hogs - trips to AU and UK plus the back to back road trips in the next two games.  But 4 very winnable home games with teams we will be in a close race with in the standings
Miss St - brutal first half doesn't get much easier
Florida - at Tenn, at Bama, at LSU, at UK, they do get Vandy twice, Mizzou and UGa to offset those first 4 a little

My guess to the finish of 1-10:
Tenn 16-2
UK 15-3
LSU 14-4
AU 11-7
Hogs 10-8
SC 10-8: winner Saturday finishes 5th
Bama 10-8: loses to Hogs to finish reg season and loses at SC
OM 9-9
Miss St 9-9
Florida 9-9 not taking the time to figure out tiebreakers for SECT seeding

11-13 Mizzou, A&M and UGa in some order
14 Vandy


Out of the top 10, SC will not be in the NCAAT picture due to their non conference resume.  I could see Florida or MSU slipping to 8-10 with the schedules they have left.  The Pac 12's awfulness should leave a couple of spots in the NCAAT that wouldn't normally be available.   
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The Kid

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2019, 09:32:14 am »

Good stuff.

So, you're thinking Arkansas gets an invite to the Big Dance?
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2019, 09:44:26 am »

Good stuff.

So, you're thinking Arkansas gets an invite to the Big Dance?

If my guess plays out, we would be 19-12 heading to SECT.  We would be on the bubble.  No idea which side as it would depend on who we will have wins against to finish out, losses and how strong the bubble is this season.  Doesn't look like it will be a deep bubble group but you never know what bids will be stolen in conference tournaments.

5th seed in SECT plays winner of 12-13 game and then plays the 4th seed.  For us, it could be a scenario of playing winner of UGa-A&M and then AU.  6th seed plays winner of 11-14 so could be Mizzou-Vandy and then LSU.  That first game in SECT would offer no opportunity for a good win and would require avoiding a bad loss.  Second game would be a big opportunity. 

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GuvHog

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2019, 10:01:30 am »

If my guess plays out, we would be 19-12 heading to SECT.  We would be on the bubble.  No idea which side as it would depend on who we will have wins against to finish out, losses and how strong the bubble is this season.  Doesn't look like it will be a deep bubble group but you never know what bids will be stolen in conference tournaments.

5th seed in SECT plays winner of 12-13 game and then plays the 4th seed.  For us, it could be a scenario of playing winner of UGa-A&M and then AU.  6th seed plays winner of 11-14 so could be Mizzou-Vandy and then LSU.  That first game in SECT would offer no opportunity for a good win and would require avoiding a bad loss.  Second game would be a big opportunity. 



IMO 19 wins would leave the Hogs out of the NCAA Tournament and looking at an NIT bid because the Hogs only have 2 quality wins (Indiana, LSU).
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2019, 10:09:30 am »

IMO 19 wins would leave the Hogs out of the NCAA Tournament and looking at an NIT bid because the Hogs only have 2 quality wins (Indiana, LSU).

We have opportunities for quality wins.  Now Miss St may not be able to stay in the top 30.  If not, that would move that opportunity from Q1 to Q2 in the quadrant system.  We have 1 Q1 win right now. 


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Kevin

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2019, 10:13:34 am »

the unbalance schedule did the hogs a favor this year
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jgphillips3

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2019, 10:30:45 am »

I think is going 5-4 down the stretch is very realistic.  I think 6-3 is also realistic.  But yeah, 10-8 or at best 11-7 is how I see us finishing.  Then we would need either 2 wins (or 1 win if we finish 6-3 with another good win) in the SEC tournament to have a shot at the NCAA.
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hobhog

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2019, 10:34:27 am »

Exact scenario every year. Clip and paste for next year.

OkieBack

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2019, 10:40:03 am »

I think is going 5-4 down the stretch is very realistic.  I think 6-3 is also realistic.  But yeah, 10-8 or at best 11-7 is how I see us finishing.  Then we would need either 2 wins (or 1 win if we finish 6-3 with another good win) in the SEC tournament to have a shot at the NCAA.

Good thought.  5-4 if we win/lose based on which teams are above and below us in conference.  I say win the games you're supposed to win (home games and teams with worse records) and sneak in another quality win against a ranked opponent and the Hogs may get a second look at the NCAA.  Otherwise they are NIT bound.
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hobhog

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2019, 10:46:35 am »

NIT. If I were Gafford Iíd decline....
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Fan701

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2019, 12:48:36 pm »

If we can go 6-3 from here on in and win one in the tourney we're in.  5-4 and only one tourney win and we're bubble.  21 total wins is probably the magic number for a definite bid.  I'm assuming that our wins will not include Kentucky on the road or Auburn on the road.  Were we to pull off a W against Kentucky or Auburn, 20 wins would probably do it for a bid.
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jgphillips3

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2019, 01:15:16 pm »

If we can go 6-3 from here on in and win one in the tourney we're in.  5-4 and only one tourney win and we're bubble.  21 total wins is probably the magic number for a definite bid.  I'm assuming that our wins will not include Kentucky on the road or Auburn on the road.  Were we to pull off a W against Kentucky or Auburn, 20 wins would probably do it for a bid.

I agree.  If we went 7-2 down the stretch with wins over, say, MSU and Auburn, I think we would be in without a SEC tourney win due to a big road victory.
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jchill

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2019, 10:27:58 pm »

Exact scenario every year. Clip and paste for next year.




I do not think the Hogs should be a bubble team. The problem is the national perception of the Hogs. We are a very competitive team that should not have a problem making the field.
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razorback1829

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2019, 10:34:31 pm »

I think is going 5-4 down the stretch is very realistic.  I think 6-3 is also realistic.  But yeah, 10-8 or at best 11-7 is how I see us finishing.  Then we would need either 2 wins (or 1 win if we finish 6-3 with another good win) in the SEC tournament to have a shot at the NCAA.

10-8 or 11-7 will get us in there no problem. Youíre underestimating how poorly other conferences are doing and trying to stick to a ďnumberĒ. PAC-12 is a one bid league. Big East isnít far behind. Big 10(14) totally overrated. Lot of other factors.
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tennesseehogwild

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2019, 10:49:16 pm »

These next 4 games are huge! 3-1 would be awesome but I believe I would take 2-2 in a heartbeat. Might be asking too much to beat Auburn at their place.
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King Kong

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2019, 03:55:57 am »

These next 4 games are huge! 3-1 would be awesome but I believe I would take 2-2 in a heartbeat. Might be asking too much to beat Auburn at their place.

3 of those 4 on the road. Good news is this team seems to play better on the road
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2019, 08:17:09 am »


I do not think the Hogs should be a bubble team. The problem is the national perception of the Hogs. We are a very competitive team that should not have a problem making the field.

If you are referring to this season, we are the poster children of bubble being buoyed by the perceived depth of our conference.  1 Q1 win.  1 decent win over now 13-10 Indiana.  2 not so good home losses in the non conference.  A NET of 60. 

Good news with Miss St: they are still hanging on in the top 30 at 28 right now. 

I didn't really start the thread to focus on the NCAAT.  We know that is what the season is all about.  Was getting into more of the details of the SEC, how the race may end up and how the unbalanced schedule affects it. 
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Screamster

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2019, 08:52:00 am »

3 of those 4 on the road. Good news is this team seems to play better on the road
That's because they have about the same amount of support on the road as they do at home...
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Ham Bones Jones

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2019, 09:56:39 am »

Exact scenario every year. Clip and paste for next year.

the definition of insanity applies.

hawg66

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2019, 10:45:40 am »

Arkansas was solidly in the field last year and the year before. And in 2015. Havenít really been on the bubble since Portisí freshman year.

Fan701

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2019, 11:10:20 am »

Arkansas was solidly in the field last year and the year before. And in 2015. Havenít really been on the bubble since Portisí freshman year.
You're right.  We were in pretty solidly, I think, the past two years and in 2015.  It was more a question of our seed.  However, you might recall that even in 2016 there was some talk of still being on the bubble right about this date three years ago.  Then we went on a two game road-trip to Mississippi, got destroyed, came back to BWA and lost to Auburn for three L's in a row, and our bubble burst.  So, really this year might have more in common with 2016.  Let's hope it doesn't end the same way.

yocdaddy

Remaining Schedule - 9 Games Left - What do you see?
« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2019, 12:35:46 pm »

Losses: at Kentucky, Mississippi St. and at Auburn for sure.

Potential losses: Alabama, at South Carolina, Ole Miss, at Vandy (tough venue)

Wins at Missouri and Texas A&M

Best case scenario: 5-4 (Wins: Alabama, Ole Miss, Vandy, Missouri, and Texas A&M    Losses: Kentucky, Mississippi St., Auburn, and South Carolina) - This puts us on the bubble needing a win or two in SEC tournament.

Worst case scenario: 3-6 (Wins: Vandy, Missouri, and Texas A&M   Losses: Kentucky, Mississippi St, Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss) - This puts us definitely out, maybe NIT



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PonderinHog

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hawg66

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2019, 01:07:31 pm »

Never really thought 2015 looked like a tourney team. This one looks like a bubble team. I figure weíll be holding our breath come selection Sunday.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Remaining Schedule - 9 Games Left - What do you see?
« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2019, 04:57:50 pm »

5-4 should be the min. Leaving out UK and AU, going worse than 5-2 vs the rest would be underachieving. 
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razorback1829

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #25 on: February 08, 2019, 05:14:28 pm »

If they donít get any better, 4-5 to finish. I think weíll get 7 though. I know Iím in the minority and Iíll own it too.
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tennesseehogwild

Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #26 on: February 08, 2019, 05:29:09 pm »

I wouldn't count Mizzou or Vandy as wins. We are playing our best basketball since SEC play began, but we could just as easily go 2-7 down the stretch. God! we need to knock off SC Saturday some how, some way! GHG!
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #27 on: February 08, 2019, 05:31:54 pm »

If they donít get any better, 4-5 to finish. I think weíll get 7 though. I know Iím in the minority and Iíll own it too.

Not unreasonable. 

Hollywood_HOGan45

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #28 on: February 08, 2019, 09:45:22 pm »

I think a lot are severely overrating this year's Auburn team.

They have no one that can hold Gafford.
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razorback1829

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #29 on: February 08, 2019, 09:53:52 pm »

I think a lot are severely overrating this year's Auburn team.

They have no one that can hold Gafford.

Great shooting gym as well. I think weíll get Auburn this year.

hobhog

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2019, 04:45:48 pm »

I think a lot are severely overrating this year's Auburn team.

They have no one that can hold Gafford.
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OinkinOregon

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #31 on: February 09, 2019, 04:48:56 pm »

I will accept 9-9 after the SC loss
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Looking at the back half of the SEC schedule and where we may finish:
« Reply #32 on: February 09, 2019, 04:53:33 pm »

I will accept 9-9 after the SC loss

We had a screw up cushion.  Margin for error dwindling.  Must win out at home and at least one of Mizzou or Vandy. 
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