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How many SEC wins in year two will CM need to achieve to make you all warm and fuzzy inside?

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1

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Author Topic: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?  (Read 1664 times)

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Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #50 on: February 07, 2019, 02:59:29 pm »

Can't believe some think we will actually get 0 wins this year. That's not happening.

5 needs to be the number. All the non con and get us 1 SEC win. If he gets 6 I will be stoked, but not expecting that.



I don't see a team that we will handily get better than they will in the SEC.  Only one I see as a maybe win is Ole Miss.  Lose Vandy and pick up much better Kentucky. 

GuvHog

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Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #51 on: February 07, 2019, 03:47:10 pm »

I don't see a team that we will handily get better than they will in the SEC.  Only one I see as a maybe win is Ole Miss.  Lose Vandy and pick up much better Kentucky. 

Kentucky loses a lot of players from last year's team including their star running back Snell, who carried the team. They won't be as good this year..

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The Kig

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Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #52 on: February 07, 2019, 04:13:30 pm »

Well, I don't seem to read very well and chose 6 because... words are hard and I didn't see the "SEC" in the poll.  I doubt even the Chad Cheer Squad that joined a few months back would predict 6 SEC wins. 

That said, I think 6 total wins is a reasonable expectation.  I don't think we were as bad as our record last year and we filled some major holes that can contribute at QB and OL.  Defense is still a big question mark, but I think we may be surprised by some of the new recruits. 

We have Missouri late in the season, when I think the reality of several losses and no post season will have set in.  Kentucky is going to be tough and Stoops is a good coach, but I think they just lose too much talent.  Between the Mississippi schools, we should be competitive and could pull one or both out.  Somewhere in that 4, we should find 2 wins. 

While we have a tough overall schedule, it is set up in a way that we can have a head of steam if we can beat Ole Miss in game 2... or it could be another year like last year where losing to Colorado State causes the wheels to come off.

HogPharmer

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #53 on: February 07, 2019, 04:18:35 pm »

Can't believe some think we will actually get 0 wins this year. That's not happening.

5 needs to be the number. All the non con and get us 1 SEC win. If he gets 6 I will be stoked, but not expecting that.

Re-read the title of the thread
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Deerhunter

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #54 on: February 07, 2019, 06:16:03 pm »

Can't believe some think we will actually get 0 wins this year. That's not happening.

5 needs to be the number. All the non con and get us 1 SEC win. If he gets 6 I will be stoked, but not expecting that.

Read how there was no way it would happen last year too.
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adroitful

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Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #55 on: February 07, 2019, 06:44:45 pm »

Until we land a 5 * bagman we’ll never be able to compete in the sec.

I'll do it. I've done shadier things in my life.
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EastexHawg

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #56 on: February 07, 2019, 08:14:37 pm »

I tried to answer my own question about whether the number of available 4 star recruits increases each year as more high school players are rated

In 2011, when Arkansas finished 22nd in recruiting according to Scout/247, the top 100 teams in the rankings signed a combined 331 4 star recruits.  In 2019 that number is 362, so apparently the number of 4 stars available has increased by almost ten percent.
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goodguytex

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Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #57 on: February 07, 2019, 09:16:03 pm »

I went with 2 SEC wins. And 4 wins on non con. And if we get it, I'll be happy.

Look.... We almost won in the Colorado State game, ole Miss game, LSU game, and could've won vandy game too.

We have a solid QB to lead the team, we probably win those close ones..... Maybe. But I'm not sure about the teams overall level of playing together last season either.

The team we had possessed such fierce loyalty and dedication to the previous staff, I think they just couldn't or wouldn't all buy in to what Morris was trying to do. We're all about to see if this years team are capable of doing that. Remains to be seen. But I hope we see marked improvement.
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psychhog

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #58 on: February 08, 2019, 07:19:30 am »

I tried to answer my own question about whether the number of available 4 star recruits increases each year as more high school players are rated

In 2011, when Arkansas finished 22nd in recruiting according to Scout/247, the top 100 teams in the rankings signed a combined 331 4 star recruits.  In 2019 that number is 362, so apparently the number of 4 stars available has increased by almost ten percent.

I did the same going back and counting after your initial response to my post because truthfully I did not take that into consideration and your point is a valid one. Even as recent as 2015 the number of 4 stars was in the 330 range so it has been pretty recent that there has been an increase and not necessarily a steady rise from year to year. I still contend that the overall average rating of our players is better this year than even last year or 2017 by about a 2 point average meaning even our 3 stars are rated better than our previous 3 stars on average.

Interesting article I found on the whole star rating system but there are probably other articles out there explaining it as well.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/1/30/18202661/recruiting-stars-rankings-high-school-football
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The Hawgman

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #59 on: February 08, 2019, 07:33:49 am »

If we win 2 SEC games this coming season I also predict that we will win all 4 OOC games and be close to a 3rd possible SEC win. That's 6-7 regular season wins which of course, means going to a minor bowl. After going 2-10 last season, I would think that everyone would be pretty happy with those results in year 2 as long as we appear to be competitive in the vast majority of games.
I think 7 wins should be satisfactory depending on how we look in the losses
Play smart well coached and just out manned
Or
Coaching blunders and predictable play calling
I want so bad to believe Morris can do the job but last year losses in winnable games was team not being prepared and poor coaching
The “holding back the play book” was that an excuse why we lost
Or was the time wasted on Kelly (coaching decision) in fall and early season why Storey did not get it.
If this team is going to win the O line will have to improve and whip somebody and Craddock will have to improve more that the OLine IMO
We will see
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EastexHawg

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #60 on: February 08, 2019, 09:22:11 am »

I did the same going back and counting after your initial response to my post because truthfully I did not take that into consideration and your point is a valid one. Even as recent as 2015 the number of 4 stars was in the 330 range so it has been pretty recent that there has been an increase and not necessarily a steady rise from year to year. I still contend that the overall average rating of our players is better this year than even last year or 2017 by about a 2 point average meaning even our 3 stars are rated better than our previous 3 stars on average.

Interesting article I found on the whole star rating system but there are probably other articles out there explaining it as well.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/1/30/18202661/recruiting-stars-rankings-high-school-football

It makes sense.  As interest in recruiting has skyrocketed there are more recruiting services and they rate a lot more players than years ago.  I don't know for sure how they determine what makes a 5 star or a 4 star, but if it involves percentages when the number of rated players goes from 3,000 to 3,500 there will be maybe 50 more 4 stars.  If you were in the top 10% of rated recruits years ago you might have had to be in the top 300 prospect.  Now being a 4 star might mean being in the top 350, so the number 320 kid who was a 3 star back then might be considered a 4 star now.

It seems to me that ranking classes relative to other teams is probably a better measure than comparing average stars or ratings points to previous years.
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Hogmatic

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #61 on: February 08, 2019, 09:23:53 am »

I think 2 SEC wins
-We don't know how much more effective the offense will be with Hicks until we get through spring practice.
-How do the new WRs learn the offense and gain comfort.
-How well do the new Olineman adjust
-How will the new players in the secondary and at LB adjust
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oldhawg

Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #62 on: February 08, 2019, 09:47:40 am »

I tried to answer my own question about whether the number of available 4 star recruits increases each year as more high school players are rated

In 2011, when Arkansas finished 22nd in recruiting according to Scout/247, the top 100 teams in the rankings signed a combined 331 4 star recruits.  In 2019 that number is 362, so apparently the number of 4 stars available has increased by almost ten percent.

Arkansas signed six four star recruits in 2011:

https://247sports.com/college/arkansas/Season/2011-Football/Commits/

At least the number of four stars signed in 2018/19 exceeds the number signed in 2011 by more than 10%.

Interestingly, Kiero Small was a two star.
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PonderinHog

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Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #63 on: February 08, 2019, 10:45:18 am »

Arkansas signed six four star recruits in 2011:

https://247sports.com/college/arkansas/Season/2011-Football/Commits/

At least the number of four stars signed in 2018/19 exceeds the number signed in 2011 by more than 10%.

Interestingly, Kiero Small was a two star.
I thought we doubled the number of four stars on the whole team with this one class.
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tomahawkhog

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Re: How many SEC wins in year 2 of the CM era?
« Reply #64 on: February 08, 2019, 12:13:10 pm »

I went with 2 SEC wins. And 4 wins on non con. And if we get it, I'll be happy.

Look.... We almost won in the Colorado State game, ole Miss game, LSU game, and could've won vandy game too.

We have a solid QB to lead the team, we probably win those close ones..... Maybe. But I'm not sure about the teams overall level of playing together last season either.

The team we had possessed such fierce loyalty and dedication to the previous staff, I think they just couldn't or wouldn't all buy in to what Morris was trying to do. We're all about to see if this years team are capable of doing that. Remains to be seen. But I hope we see marked improvement.

We never had a shot against LSU or Vandy last year.
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