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Author Topic: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons  (Read 1441 times)

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bennyl08

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Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« on: February 02, 2019, 01:29:43 pm »

Both seasons we had a brand new HC.  Both seasons had a terrible season immediately preceding where the team gave up on the coaching staff and wasn't playing hard. Both seasons, we thought the previous was a low point only to find that under the new HC, we actually did even worse.

More specifically, I'd like to look at the offense, which again, performed quite similarly. Go back to 2013. We had poor QB play, talk that our future qb wasn't on campus yet. QB was running for his life almost every play (BA threw the ball away a lot artificially decreasing the number of sacks, but the qb pressures were quite high). However, even if we had Tom Brady at QB, the WR's weren't getting separation, even against the lower tier schools. There were some bright spots in the running game with some new faces at RB (JWill was for all intents and purposes still a new face) I.e. pretty much exactly the same thing we saw this year.

Almost everybody said some combination of BA simply doesn't have the arm to be a QB in the SEC and/or our WR's have no speed or quickness whatsoever.

Truth was, BA is a QB on a super bowl roster, Herndon despite that 2013 season being his best went on to have a solid NFL career running a 4.4 forty, Wilson had NFL size and speed but was injured, and then Hatcher and Morgan both on the roster then also went on to the NFL with Hatcher making the actual roster and not just practice squad unlike Morgan. So yeah, it turns out we had an NFL drafted and rostered QB, two NFL rostered WR's, a practice squad receiver, and a fourth who certainly had NFL size/speed on the roster. For good measure, we also had technically 3 NFL backs on the roster (Williams, Collins, and Small) along with 3 NFL OL on the roster, with Swanson being a high draft pick, and Kirkland and Skipper going undrafted but both being rostered and playing in real games.

Lets not pretend or rewrite history that the 2013 offense was better than it really was. It was quite terrible. However, just like many argue about the current roster, it's not a lack of physical talent that is the problem despite that being the go to for less informed fans.

Which begs the question, what changed for that 2015 offense which was largely the same cast of characters as the 2013? The problem is, there is no single, easy answer. It's a whole complex of non-linear actions. If it was all about knowing college level playbooks, then Vandy would be king of the SEC. If it was all about experience, 2018 should have been a better season than 2017. If it was all about just having the physical abilities, we'd be talking about where in the first round of the draft Pettway would be going this year. In 2013, Hatcher and Herndon were basically in their first seasons of getting real playing time (in 2012, we might as well have only had Cobi Hamilton out on the field at receiver...). Morgan and Hunter Henry were both true freshmen as well. So, despite having those four NFL pass pass catchers on the team, none of them had  experience and even their physical abilities were still being developed. Same for Brandon Allen.

Holding the coaching constant, there was improvement from 2013 to 2014 offensively. While Herndon left, Hatcher and Henry improved and Morgan developed enough to start earning a few snaps. Brandon was somewhat improved, but a bad shoulder injury early in the season limited his physical ability (and furthered the argument that he didn't have the arm strength despite evidence to the contrary). OL lost Swanson but added Tretola and with no injuries in the running game, that exploded while the passing game got better but at a much slower pace.

In comes a new OC for 2015. Increased focus on the details in the passing game, a finally fully healthy BA, and a receiving group full of third year starters and a very talented 2nd year Cornelius, and voila. Offensive explosion. It wasn't that the WR's finally put in more work, because they needed better play from the QB. It wasn't that the QB finally needed more work because he too needed better play from the WR's. Both needed more from the coaching staff than they were getting under Chaney and having a non-injured QB helped too. Overall, it led to a crescendo full of feedbacks.

Finally, where does that lesson bring us with our current team? Ty showed that he had NFL arm strength last season in flashes, but poor fundamentals in part due to high pressure led to the appearance of having a pretty weak arm on the majority of his pass attempts. Conner Noland looked a lot like a clone of BA coming out of HS and similarly played a lot like a 2012 BA this year as well. In terms of scholarship offer lists and physical tools at their disposal, our WR group in 2018 was probably the best it's been since entering the SEC. However, like the previous receivers, they flat out struggled to get open this year (in what was actually their second season of extended playing) even against weaker opponents. There's no sugar coating that. They sucked. What is really troubling is that they regressed HARD their second year under first year ever HC Morris. Do they simply inherently not have what it takes mentally to play the game better? Do they need Morris to undue the mental weaknesses that Bielema undoubtably sowed? Are they getting the level of coaching that they need? Chaney sucked while hear, but he has had success at UGA. However, hard to argue that our players didn't even look like SEC level players under Chaney while they became NFL level players under Enos. That is to say, that football players aren't robots and there's a human element. Chaney clearly isn't a terrible coach, but he was not a fit here (though even at UGA, there's definitely some questionable decisions partly masked by top 5 talent).

Deerhunter

Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2019, 01:33:28 pm »

Bobby Petrino second season 8 wins.  Bret second season 7 wins.

Let’s see if Morris can get to where they did.

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bennyl08

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2019, 01:44:37 pm »

Bobby Petrino second season 8 wins.  Bret second season 7 wins.

Let’s see if Morris can get to where they did.

That'd be great.

That said, Morris coming off a 3 win season was a meh class, and coming off a 2 win season gave us an awesome class. Part of me is tempted to see if we can't get a top 5 recruiting class if we sacrifice 2019 and only win 1 game and then come out of nowhere in 2020 to win 10+.
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Superhog1959

Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2019, 02:29:20 pm »

There may be some similarities from 13 to 18 but that's probably true for any similar years of Ws and Ls or first year coaches. BB seemed to be laid back, easy on the players. They liked him. Coach Morris comes in and changes that atmosphere. He is more disciplined, strict. Several of the players hated him. Rebelled. Or at least these are things I am hearing from those in the media that would have reason to know.

I understand your points. And in many I agree. I think the question to all of us is, Is Coach Morris competent, capable of rebuilding the program into a winning program? From what I saw last year, I would have to question the coaching to. What I want to believe is that it was the changing of style, the talent, the players attitudes, the players efforts. The dissension that the some of the players were said to have. The key statement here is "What I want to believe".

One thing for sure. A lot of questions will be answered this year.  If it was dissension, that should be gone. If it was effort, that should be gone. If it was attitudes, that should have changed. Last year we can put things on the players. This year it will be on the coaches. And yes, it will take time to rebuild the program. The question is, can Coach Morris show enough improvement to earn that time?

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2019, 05:04:34 pm »

This is my take on the 2018 season and I will make it simple. The first three games were more of what I would call experimental coaching with not having much commitment on a starting QB, receivers, special teams and play calling. The team and coaching got off to a horrible start. The team and coaches showed improvement against Auburn but the score was not so much an indication of that improvement.

The middle of the season the team showed significant improvement against A&M, Ole Miss, LSU, Vandy (4th quarter meltdown) Tulsa and even Bama. We played well enough against A&M, Ole Miss and Vandy that the outcome could have been different with a few breaks going our way.

In my opinion the team (some players) lost heart going into the final two games and the desire and effort simply wasn’t there. I don’t think it was as much coaching as it was the players not putting forth the effort.

I’m expecting 2019 to be a totally different team from 2018. The coaching staff now know the key players coming into this year beginning with game one. If we can beat Ole Miss, and I believe we will, then we should start at 4-0 before we get into the meat of the schedule. Getting off to that start should build confidence and momentum that could carry us to a six or seven win year before the bowl game.

jhogg

Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2019, 05:31:12 pm »

lets forget about last year and look forward to improvement this year

Deerhunter

Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2019, 05:42:03 pm »

This is my take on the 2018 season and I will make it simple. The first three games were more of what I would call experimental coaching with not having much commitment on a starting QB, receivers, special teams and play calling. The team and coaching got off to a horrible start. The team and coaches showed improvement against Auburn but the score was not so much an indication of that improvement.

The middle of the season the team showed significant improvement against A&M, Ole Miss, LSU, Vandy (4th quarter meltdown) Tulsa and even Bama. We played well enough against A&M, Ole Miss and Vandy that the outcome could have been different with a few breaks going our way.

In my opinion the team (some players) lost heart going into the final two games and the desire and effort simply wasn’t there. I don’t think it was as much coaching as it was the players not putting forth the effort.

I’m expecting 2019 to be a totally different team from 2018. The coaching staff now know the key players coming into this year beginning with game one. If we can beat Ole Miss, and I believe we will, then we should start at 4-0 before we get into the meat of the schedule. Getting off to that start should build confidence and momentum that could carry us to a six or seven win year before the bowl game.

Bama?  The game was over in the first quarter.  It was 41-14 at the half.  Bama players quit. 
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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2019, 05:57:45 am »

Both seasons we had a brand new HC.  Both seasons had a terrible season immediately preceding where the team gave up on the coaching staff and wasn't playing hard. Both seasons, we thought the previous was a low point only to find that under the new HC, we actually did even worse.

More specifically, I'd like to look at the offense, which again, performed quite similarly. Go back to 2013. We had poor QB play, talk that our future qb wasn't on campus yet. QB was running for his life almost every play (BA threw the ball away a lot artificially decreasing the number of sacks, but the qb pressures were quite high). However, even if we had Tom Brady at QB, the WR's weren't getting separation, even against the lower tier schools. There were some bright spots in the running game with some new faces at RB (JWill was for all intents and purposes still a new face) I.e. pretty much exactly the same thing we saw this year.

Almost everybody said some combination of BA simply doesn't have the arm to be a QB in the SEC and/or our WR's have no speed or quickness whatsoever.

Truth was, BA is a QB on a super bowl roster, Herndon despite that 2013 season being his best went on to have a solid NFL career running a 4.4 forty, Wilson had NFL size and speed but was injured, and then Hatcher and Morgan both on the roster then also went on to the NFL with Hatcher making the actual roster and not just practice squad unlike Morgan. So yeah, it turns out we had an NFL drafted and rostered QB, two NFL rostered WR's, a practice squad receiver, and a fourth who certainly had NFL size/speed on the roster. For good measure, we also had technically 3 NFL backs on the roster (Williams, Collins, and Small) along with 3 NFL OL on the roster, with Swanson being a high draft pick, and Kirkland and Skipper going undrafted but both being rostered and playing in real games.

Lets not pretend or rewrite history that the 2013 offense was better than it really was. It was quite terrible. However, just like many argue about the current roster, it's not a lack of physical talent that is the problem despite that being the go to for less informed fans.

Which begs the question, what changed for that 2015 offense which was largely the same cast of characters as the 2013? The problem is, there is no single, easy answer. It's a whole complex of non-linear actions. If it was all about knowing college level playbooks, then Vandy would be king of the SEC. If it was all about experience, 2018 should have been a better season than 2017. If it was all about just having the physical abilities, we'd be talking about where in the first round of the draft Pettway would be going this year. In 2013, Hatcher and Herndon were basically in their first seasons of getting real playing time (in 2012, we might as well have only had Cobi Hamilton out on the field at receiver...). Morgan and Hunter Henry were both true freshmen as well. So, despite having those four NFL pass pass catchers on the team, none of them had  experience and even their physical abilities were still being developed. Same for Brandon Allen.

Holding the coaching constant, there was improvement from 2013 to 2014 offensively. While Herndon left, Hatcher and Henry improved and Morgan developed enough to start earning a few snaps. Brandon was somewhat improved, but a bad shoulder injury early in the season limited his physical ability (and furthered the argument that he didn't have the arm strength despite evidence to the contrary). OL lost Swanson but added Tretola and with no injuries in the running game, that exploded while the passing game got better but at a much slower pace.

In comes a new OC for 2015. Increased focus on the details in the passing game, a finally fully healthy BA, and a receiving group full of third year starters and a very talented 2nd year Cornelius, and voila. Offensive explosion. It wasn't that the WR's finally put in more work, because they needed better play from the QB. It wasn't that the QB finally needed more work because he too needed better play from the WR's. Both needed more from the coaching staff than they were getting under Chaney and having a non-injured QB helped too. Overall, it led to a crescendo full of feedbacks.

Finally, where does that lesson bring us with our current team? Ty showed that he had NFL arm strength last season in flashes, but poor fundamentals in part due to high pressure led to the appearance of having a pretty weak arm on the majority of his pass attempts. Conner Noland looked a lot like a clone of BA coming out of HS and similarly played a lot like a 2012 BA this year as well. In terms of scholarship offer lists and physical tools at their disposal, our WR group in 2018 was probably the best it's been since entering the SEC. However, like the previous receivers, they flat out struggled to get open this year (in what was actually their second season of extended playing) even against weaker opponents. There's no sugar coating that. They sucked. What is really troubling is that they regressed HARD their second year under first year ever HC Morris. Do they simply inherently not have what it takes mentally to play the game better? Do they need Morris to undue the mental weaknesses that Bielema undoubtably sowed? Are they getting the level of coaching that they need? Chaney sucked while hear, but he has had success at UGA. However, hard to argue that our players didn't even look like SEC level players under Chaney while they became NFL level players under Enos. That is to say, that football players aren't robots and there's a human element. Chaney clearly isn't a terrible coach, but he was not a fit here (though even at UGA, there's definitely some questionable decisions partly masked by top 5 talent).

Sorry there is about 1% to compare.
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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2019, 08:51:17 am »

Both seasons we had a brand new HC.  Both seasons had a terrible season immediately preceding where the team gave up on the coaching staff and wasn't playing hard. Both seasons, we thought the previous was a low point only to find that under the new HC, we actually did even worse.

More specifically, I'd like to look at the offense, which again, performed quite similarly. Go back to 2013. We had poor QB play, talk that our future qb wasn't on campus yet. QB was running for his life almost every play (BA threw the ball away a lot artificially decreasing the number of sacks, but the qb pressures were quite high). However, even if we had Tom Brady at QB, the WR's weren't getting separation, even against the lower tier schools. There were some bright spots in the running game with some new faces at RB (JWill was for all intents and purposes still a new face) I.e. pretty much exactly the same thing we saw this year.

Almost everybody said some combination of BA simply doesn't have the arm to be a QB in the SEC and/or our WR's have no speed or quickness whatsoever.

Truth was, BA is a QB on a super bowl roster, Herndon despite that 2013 season being his best went on to have a solid NFL career running a 4.4 forty, Wilson had NFL size and speed but was injured, and then Hatcher and Morgan both on the roster then also went on to the NFL with Hatcher making the actual roster and not just practice squad unlike Morgan. So yeah, it turns out we had an NFL drafted and rostered QB, two NFL rostered WR's, a practice squad receiver, and a fourth who certainly had NFL size/speed on the roster. For good measure, we also had technically 3 NFL backs on the roster (Williams, Collins, and Small) along with 3 NFL OL on the roster, with Swanson being a high draft pick, and Kirkland and Skipper going undrafted but both being rostered and playing in real games.

Lets not pretend or rewrite history that the 2013 offense was better than it really was. It was quite terrible. However, just like many argue about the current roster, it's not a lack of physical talent that is the problem despite that being the go to for less informed fans.

Which begs the question, what changed for that 2015 offense which was largely the same cast of characters as the 2013? The problem is, there is no single, easy answer. It's a whole complex of non-linear actions. If it was all about knowing college level playbooks, then Vandy would be king of the SEC. If it was all about experience, 2018 should have been a better season than 2017. If it was all about just having the physical abilities, we'd be talking about where in the first round of the draft Pettway would be going this year. In 2013, Hatcher and Herndon were basically in their first seasons of getting real playing time (in 2012, we might as well have only had Cobi Hamilton out on the field at receiver...). Morgan and Hunter Henry were both true freshmen as well. So, despite having those four NFL pass pass catchers on the team, none of them had  experience and even their physical abilities were still being developed. Same for Brandon Allen.

Holding the coaching constant, there was improvement from 2013 to 2014 offensively. While Herndon left, Hatcher and Henry improved and Morgan developed enough to start earning a few snaps. Brandon was somewhat improved, but a bad shoulder injury early in the season limited his physical ability (and furthered the argument that he didn't have the arm strength despite evidence to the contrary). OL lost Swanson but added Tretola and with no injuries in the running game, that exploded while the passing game got better but at a much slower pace.

In comes a new OC for 2015. Increased focus on the details in the passing game, a finally fully healthy BA, and a receiving group full of third year starters and a very talented 2nd year Cornelius, and voila. Offensive explosion. It wasn't that the WR's finally put in more work, because they needed better play from the QB. It wasn't that the QB finally needed more work because he too needed better play from the WR's. Both needed more from the coaching staff than they were getting under Chaney and having a non-injured QB helped too. Overall, it led to a crescendo full of feedbacks.

Finally, where does that lesson bring us with our current team? Ty showed that he had NFL arm strength last season in flashes, but poor fundamentals in part due to high pressure led to the appearance of having a pretty weak arm on the majority of his pass attempts. Conner Noland looked a lot like a clone of BA coming out of HS and similarly played a lot like a 2012 BA this year as well. In terms of scholarship offer lists and physical tools at their disposal, our WR group in 2018 was probably the best it's been since entering the SEC. However, like the previous receivers, they flat out struggled to get open this year (in what was actually their second season of extended playing) even against weaker opponents. There's no sugar coating that. They sucked. What is really troubling is that they regressed HARD their second year under first year ever HC Morris. Do they simply inherently not have what it takes mentally to play the game better? Do they need Morris to undue the mental weaknesses that Bielema undoubtably sowed? Are they getting the level of coaching that they need? Chaney sucked while hear, but he has had success at UGA. However, hard to argue that our players didn't even look like SEC level players under Chaney while they became NFL level players under Enos. That is to say, that football players aren't robots and there's a human element. Chaney clearly isn't a terrible coach, but he was not a fit here (though even at UGA, there's definitely some questionable decisions partly masked by top 5 talent).

That's where you lost me. If you think Ty has NFL arm strength, you're high as a kite... There were times he had great protection with guy streaking down field wide open just to underthrow him. His arm strength is the reason he wasn't better than he was and isn't coming back next year.

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2019, 08:56:34 am »

lets forget about last year and look forward to improvement this year

I tryed rewatching the games and got ill.
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bennyl08

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2019, 09:22:24 pm »

That's where you lost me. If you think Ty has NFL arm strength, you're high as a kite... There were times he had great protection with guy streaking down field wide open just to underthrow him. His arm strength is the reason he wasn't better than he was and isn't coming back next year.

That's why there's a night and day difference b/w what a person can do and what a person will consistently do.

However, go back and watch the highlights of the week one win over the FCS school. Ty showed every bit of the arm that a guy like Tyler Wilson had. 50+ yards in the air w/o having to put everything you have, 30 yards downfield with the ball on an absolute rope. Heck, even in his HS tape, you see him show off a better arm than we hardly ever saw during his playing time this season.

Only being able to actually show off what you can do against low level Arkansas HS and FCS competition in college is a far cry from a ringing endorsement of playing ability. However, he 100% does have that physical potential. Take John Ross (I believe is his name) the WR who has the fastest NFL combine ever, at least that is official. Go watch his tape and he looks slower than guys who run in the 4.7's most the time. He unquestionably can run faster than anybody else in the NFL right now. However, throw in the speed of the game, the thinking required, the technique needed for running routes and he'll be smothered by 4.6 forty CB's who are accustomed to the speed of the game.

Believe me, if you asked me to randomly select say 50 of Ty Storey's passes from this season, I'd be right there with you in saying that the guy absolutely lacks the arm strength to probably even be a very good D1 QB. However, it only takes a couple throws to show that he is capable in a perfect scenario of so much more, upwards of being a mid to low level NFL backup, which by definition is an NFL arm.

Again, please go back to 2013 and Brandon Allen. 2015 BA's arm strength was virtually identical as QB's don't really improve arm strength after HS in terms of throwing the ball. Exact same thing. You take a 50 random passes from that 2013 season and it looks like he simply lacks ANY semblance of SEC starting arm strength. Had he left like Ty did, that would probably be the end of the story. Storey did leave and he also didn't have another 2 years of playing to finally reach his potential like BA did.

There's a lot of players with potential. Most of them never come close to fully reaching it. In each draft, there are usually multiple Cam Newton's, Clowney's, and Julio Jones's. Many are complete whifs, and many others become meh players, not to mention those that don't make it to the draft. The difference b/w say Julio and the others lies outside of what their physical potential is. You know, there's a lot more to playing QB than just arm strength, and even if you have the arm strength, if you aren't excelling at the other areas, it can dampen your ability to use even that.
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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2019, 03:43:07 am »

QB's don't really improve arm strength after HS in terms of throwing the ball.

Actually benny, it does......in most cases, a lot.

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2019, 08:15:21 am »

Good read, benny.

Any attempt to determine THE reason 2018 was so bad will fail. There were multiple reasons, all interacting into a perfect storm and disaster.

Little quality depth, wide receivers unfamiliar with the system that required more from them, a young offensive line in a new system, not enough game speed for the new offense, coaches not yet familiar with all their players' weaknesses, no proven quarterback with the ability to provide offensive leadership, little big-play threat, etc.

Combining all those together also made us easy to coach against. "They can't hit the long ball, we take away the run and the screen." They can't pass block, we can pressure the quarterback at the same time."

And even when we rose above our issues, we didn't have depth and wilted in the 4th quarter like Bielema's teams had done, and lost the games we could have won.

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2019, 09:11:07 pm »

Actually benny, it does......in most cases, a lot.

If that was the case, Ty Storey would have had a Mallett-ian cannon for an arm. Kellen Moore would be talked about for the NFL Hall of Fame rather than a really smart and accurate backup with a noodle arm who'll probably make a good OC some day.

In most cases, a QB is able to improve their footwork which helps them to use more of the arm strength they already have on a higher percentage of their throws. Thus, you see more high arm strength throws by the time the qb graduates from when they first started, but if you watch them early on, you'll see a throw once in a blue moon that shows off their true arm strength, just with a lot of poor technique throws in between that gives the illusion of poor arm strength.

Let's look at two QB's here at Arkansas for comparison. Ryan Mallett, canon for an arm, and Brandon Allen, NFL level arm but certainly not a canon.



Mallett's arm is no weaker in HS than it was in the NFL. Even BA who had a weaker arm than Mallett you can see sling the ball 30 yards on a rope the very first play of that video and just watching through half of it, you see a fairly casual 50 yard in the air throw which couldn't have been any further due to the endzone and then a 55, maybe 57 yard in the air throw (receiver jump up a bit to catch it hence the variability in distance there) along with plenty of bullet passes in between.

I'm sure there's probably a difference in arm strength of maybe 1 mph from HS to finishing college in terms of arm strength. It would be weird if there was none whatsoever, but no, at least in most cases, arm strength does not change very much as it relates to throwing the ball. Your ability to throw is based much more in technique than on muscle, otherwise qb's would look a lot more like OL. In terms of throwing, you are much more limited by rotator cuff which you can't really strengthen much. Sure, you can strengthen it some, I've had to do that after dislocating mine.

Throwing the ball is more akin to a player's speed than anything else. You are born with it, or you aren't. You can train til you are blue in the face, but you will only ever see marginal differences (with the exception of say a couch potato or something who hasn't ever exercised before). Your biggest changes won't have anything to do with your ability to inherently run faster or throw farther but instead will come from not wasting the speed or strength you already have. For example, a runner trying to be too quick and not putting much force into the ground with each step or a QB trying to arm his throw rather than driving from the feet and then hips.
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bennyl08

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2019, 09:14:11 pm »

However, I'd love to be proven wrong.

Show me a player who in HS had to heave as hard as he could to throw the ball say 40 yards while still using good form but by the time he left college was able to throw the ball 60 something yards downfield. That would at least show that what you claim does happen (as I showed two examples of players NOT improving their arm strength any appreciable amount).

You'd of course then need to show that such a thing is common, but that could take more time. I'd be thrilled to just see a counter example to my argument even if it is a pretty rare occurance.
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Arkansas Hog in Dallas

Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2019, 02:33:29 am »

However, I'd love to be proven wrong.

Show me a player who in HS had to heave as hard as he could to throw the ball say 40 yards while still using good form but by the time he left college was able to throw the ball 60 something yards downfield. That would at least show that what you claim does happen (as I showed two examples of players NOT improving their arm strength any appreciable amount).

You'd of course then need to show that such a thing is common, but that could take more time. I'd be thrilled to just see a counter example to my argument even if it is a pretty rare occurance.

If what you’re saying is accurate, college pitchers wouldn’t throw harder once they get to MLB, or HS to college or whatever.
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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2019, 03:23:33 am »

Both seasons sucked.

That's about as deep as I'm willing to go in the comparison. Bless you guys that are willing to dig through the stench of both of them.
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LZH

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2019, 06:28:18 am »

Benny, I’m not sure where all that came from, and sorry, I’m not gonna scrounge around on the internet looking for what you said. But if you really think a QB’s arm strength peaks at 17-18 years old, then I guess we’ll just leave it there. I wasn’t calling you out buddy, I just completely disagreed with your statement.

Superhog1959

Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2019, 07:15:18 am »

Players have limits on a individual basis and progressions on individual basis. Some are similar, but no 2 the same.
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GuvHog

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Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2019, 12:44:35 pm »

Both seasons we had a brand new HC.  Both seasons had a terrible season immediately preceding where the team gave up on the coaching staff and wasn't playing hard. Both seasons, we thought the previous was a low point only to find that under the new HC, we actually did even worse.

More specifically, I'd like to look at the offense, which again, performed quite similarly. Go back to 2013. We had poor QB play, talk that our future qb wasn't on campus yet. QB was running for his life almost every play (BA threw the ball away a lot artificially decreasing the number of sacks, but the qb pressures were quite high). However, even if we had Tom Brady at QB, the WR's weren't getting separation, even against the lower tier schools. There were some bright spots in the running game with some new faces at RB (JWill was for all intents and purposes still a new face) I.e. pretty much exactly the same thing we saw this year.

Almost everybody said some combination of BA simply doesn't have the arm to be a QB in the SEC and/or our WR's have no speed or quickness whatsoever.

Truth was, BA is a QB on a super bowl roster, Herndon despite that 2013 season being his best went on to have a solid NFL career running a 4.4 forty, Wilson had NFL size and speed but was injured, and then Hatcher and Morgan both on the roster then also went on to the NFL with Hatcher making the actual roster and not just practice squad unlike Morgan. So yeah, it turns out we had an NFL drafted and rostered QB, two NFL rostered WR's, a practice squad receiver, and a fourth who certainly had NFL size/speed on the roster. For good measure, we also had technically 3 NFL backs on the roster (Williams, Collins, and Small) along with 3 NFL OL on the roster, with Swanson being a high draft pick, and Kirkland and Skipper going undrafted but both being rostered and playing in real games.

Lets not pretend or rewrite history that the 2013 offense was better than it really was. It was quite terrible. However, just like many argue about the current roster, it's not a lack of physical talent that is the problem despite that being the go to for less informed fans.

Which begs the question, what changed for that 2015 offense which was largely the same cast of characters as the 2013? The problem is, there is no single, easy answer. It's a whole complex of non-linear actions. If it was all about knowing college level playbooks, then Vandy would be king of the SEC. If it was all about experience, 2018 should have been a better season than 2017. If it was all about just having the physical abilities, we'd be talking about where in the first round of the draft Pettway would be going this year. In 2013, Hatcher and Herndon were basically in their first seasons of getting real playing time (in 2012, we might as well have only had Cobi Hamilton out on the field at receiver...). Morgan and Hunter Henry were both true freshmen as well. So, despite having those four NFL pass pass catchers on the team, none of them had  experience and even their physical abilities were still being developed. Same for Brandon Allen.

Holding the coaching constant, there was improvement from 2013 to 2014 offensively. While Herndon left, Hatcher and Henry improved and Morgan developed enough to start earning a few snaps. Brandon was somewhat improved, but a bad shoulder injury early in the season limited his physical ability (and furthered the argument that he didn't have the arm strength despite evidence to the contrary). OL lost Swanson but added Tretola and with no injuries in the running game, that exploded while the passing game got better but at a much slower pace.

In comes a new OC for 2015. Increased focus on the details in the passing game, a finally fully healthy BA, and a receiving group full of third year starters and a very talented 2nd year Cornelius, and voila. Offensive explosion. It wasn't that the WR's finally put in more work, because they needed better play from the QB. It wasn't that the QB finally needed more work because he too needed better play from the WR's. Both needed more from the coaching staff than they were getting under Chaney and having a non-injured QB helped too. Overall, it led to a crescendo full of feedbacks.

Finally, where does that lesson bring us with our current team? Ty showed that he had NFL arm strength last season in flashes, but poor fundamentals in part due to high pressure led to the appearance of having a pretty weak arm on the majority of his pass attempts. Conner Noland looked a lot like a clone of BA coming out of HS and similarly played a lot like a 2012 BA this year as well. In terms of scholarship offer lists and physical tools at their disposal, our WR group in 2018 was probably the best it's been since entering the SEC. However, like the previous receivers, they flat out struggled to get open this year (in what was actually their second season of extended playing) even against weaker opponents. There's no sugar coating that. They sucked. What is really troubling is that they regressed HARD their second year under first year ever HC Morris. Do they simply inherently not have what it takes mentally to play the game better? Do they need Morris to undue the mental weaknesses that Bielema undoubtably sowed? Are they getting the level of coaching that they need? Chaney sucked while hear, but he has had success at UGA. However, hard to argue that our players didn't even look like SEC level players under Chaney while they became NFL level players under Enos. That is to say, that football players aren't robots and there's a human element. Chaney clearly isn't a terrible coach, but he was not a fit here (though even at UGA, there's definitely some questionable decisions partly masked by top 5 talent).

Truth be told, BA wasn't ready to be the starting QB in 2013 and that was a colossal Mistake by Bret. In 2014, BA was ready and it definitely showed.


I disagree with you about Ty Storey. He underthrew receivers going deep many times last year due to a lack of arm strength.
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Porkys Revenge

Re: Similarities of 2013 and 2018 Seasons
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2019, 02:02:52 pm »

However, I'd love to be proven wrong.

Show me a player who in HS had to heave as hard as he could to throw the ball say 40 yards while still using good form but by the time he left college was able to throw the ball 60 something yards downfield. That would at least show that what you claim does happen (as I showed two examples of players NOT improving their arm strength any appreciable amount).

You'd of course then need to show that such a thing is common, but that could take more time. I'd be thrilled to just see a counter example to my argument even if it is a pretty rare occurance.
Matt Jones. Clint Stoerner. Brandon Allen
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