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Author Topic: These recruiting rankings are garbage.  (Read 4406 times)

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LA Football fan

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #50 on: February 04, 2019, 09:24:43 am »

They are garbage pure and simple.  Anyone can take out the top 50 or so players every year and see they are a cut above everyone else.  After that it is nothing more than subjective opinion about the rest.  Does anyone really think you can look at a player and say he is .2 of a point better four star than another four star player????   Henry is a perfect example how he was ranked so high and then a slightly pulled hamstring muscle and non performance in a meaningless all star game was a reason to drop him.  Doesn't matter that his senior season stats blew away the few players they decided were better than him. 
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pigroots

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #51 on: February 04, 2019, 09:44:07 am »

So much is evaluation based on where they are now. Some of these guys have peaked. They matured fast and what they are now is the best they'll ever be. They may be 19 years old. Some may be 17 or just turning 18 and still on the climb. Some have had the best of weight rooms and training while others are not able to afford that. You also can't measure in a star attitude and work ethic. The final thing is how they will fit the scheme.
   Obviously some coaches can do this better than others and thus one guy blooms and the other fades. Speed seems to be a constant and CCM seem to know that. Arkansas is a state for the most part where the facilities look nothing like they do in Texas because money pours into these schools like crazy. AD's make 6 figure salaries and do not teach a class at many of them. I think that's 1 reason players in Arkansas go undervalued. CCM has some good connections and some good players coming in. The question now is he one of the great evaluators or not 
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SemperFi

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #52 on: February 04, 2019, 10:41:45 am »

I try not to get too wrapped around the axle about these recruiting rankings. I figure talk is cheap and on field results are what really matters. There is bias to these recruiting rankings and all it takes is a kid committing to Arkansas over Alabama to be assured a 3 star rating. Surely if Saban really felt him worthy then he would have been pursued much harder and thus the ranking. Do these people that assign star ratings actually review more than just a snippet of what the kid can do? It's nothing more than an educated or in some cases, uneducated guess at the potential of a High School kid. The NFL is full of players that were rated 3 star or lower, so were these misses by the recruiting services?

In 2-3 years we'll see just how good this recruiting was/is and hopefully, success will drive even better recruiting during this time frame. If Coach Morris can get the Razorbacks competing and winning again, then who cares what Rivals or 24/7 think?

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #53 on: February 04, 2019, 12:50:36 pm »

It is not bias or garbage, it is a mathematical calculation...

Correct. It’s biased or garbage for those seeking affirmation instead of information

Possible Oatmeal

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #54 on: February 04, 2019, 06:33:00 pm »

Recruiting ranking formulas suffer from GIGO.

As for why the teams with the highest recruiting rankings are making the playoffs a lot, very simply because they are getting the players that your grandmother can tell are the top players in the country.  Below those few, it's hilarious to think you can assign a numerical value to each player anywhere close to accurately.  I mean, I literally think it is laughable that people accept it's possible.  If you aren't in the top 10 in recruiting rankings, they don't matter.  End of.

Now, is it a good sign that we have more 4 stars this year than in the past?  Sure.  Does it matter where that ranks us?  No.  What matters is we are getting players other teams want and that fill our needs.  It doesn't matter if we are ranked 16th or 30th.  In fact, the difference between 16th and 30th might be the ranking of 4 or 5 players, and every single ranking outside of the top players is a crapshoot.

Recruiting services find the best players in the country (which you and I could do from our living rooms), then do little better than wild guess work on everyone else based on if teams with traditional success want them.  That's it.  There is your correlation.

Arkansas Hog in Dallas

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #55 on: February 04, 2019, 08:26:16 pm »

Recruiting ranking formulas suffer from GIGO.

As for why the teams with the highest recruiting rankings are making the playoffs a lot, very simply because they are getting the players that your grandmother can tell are the top players in the country.  Below those few, it's hilarious to think you can assign a numerical value to each player anywhere close to accurately.  I mean, I literally think it is laughable that people accept it's possible.  If you aren't in the top 10 in recruiting rankings, they don't matter.  End of.

Now, is it a good sign that we have more 4 stars this year than in the past?  Sure.  Does it matter where that ranks us?  No.  What matters is we are getting players other teams want and that fill our needs.  It doesn't matter if we are ranked 16th or 30th.  In fact, the difference between 16th and 30th might be the ranking of 4 or 5 players, and every single ranking outside of the top players is a crapshoot.

Recruiting services find the best players in the country (which you and I could do from our living rooms), then do little better than wild guess work on everyone else based on if teams with traditional success want them.  That's it.  There is your correlation.

Shouldn’t we be getting these type top 50 players if we want to win a natty?
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colbs

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #56 on: February 04, 2019, 09:22:14 pm »

Shouldn’t we be getting these type top 50 players if we want to win a natty?
IMO if Burks would have went to camps he would be up there.

colbs

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #57 on: February 04, 2019, 09:38:15 pm »

Since 2003, only three teams have won a NC with and average 247 recruiting (four years prior) ranked over 10 (LSU, Aubbie, Clemson.  No team in the last 15 years has won a NC with recruiting rankings higher than 16, period.   

You all can dispute the rankings all you want, but it is only your opinion because the facts simply do not support your position.  Again, there are other factors (coaching, injuries, Etc,) which is why the #1, #2 or #3 don't win it every year.  In general, teams with high recruiting rankings win the NC.  As I stated before, there is some subjectivity in the rankings, but from a high level they are historically a solid predictor of success.     

The 247 recruiting average the 4 years prior to a NC:

2003- LSU 12,  2004- USC 8, 2005 Texas 8, 2006 FL 5, 2007 LSU 8, 2008 FL 5, 2009- Bama , 2010 - Aubbie 16, 2011 Bama 2, 2012 Bama 3, 2013 FL St 6, OH ST 4, 2015 Bama 1, 2016-Clemson 13 
I think are somewhat accurate but you have to take with a grain of salt.  There are a lot of teams in the top 15 who are not finishing anywhere close to that.  I think there are certain teams who get the top of the players on their list and the recruiting sites follow that teams lead.  Chris Russell got bumped up 300+ spots a few days ago.  You want to know why?  Because A&M has a good shot a getting him and their recruiting guy put in a request for him be bumped up.  He’s the same player, he didn’t all of sudden become better than 300+ players.

The teams you mentioned for the most part had the best coaches and/or an elite QB.  You are just using the NC argument.  If you looked at the top 10
Every year I would guess than 4 of the 10 finished on average outside the top 15 in recruiting rankings.
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Possible Oatmeal

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #58 on: February 06, 2019, 07:08:37 pm »

Shouldn’t we be getting these type top 50 players if we want to win a natty?

We would love to.  Easier said then done, though, don't you think?  The best plan for everyone that isn't currently able to pull in that kind of talent regularly is to get the best players they can and try to surprise some teams that are above them.  Do that consistently and you improve your chances at those types of players and it can snowball.

Or cheat.
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #59 on: February 06, 2019, 07:47:05 pm »

I agree.  I think for us since we are so low of great talent we need to get hard working recruits who have 3 star talent with 5 star hearts and develop them.  Some guys come in with size and speed to play immediately while others need time. We must get those recruits who in 2 years are better than Bama's rookies.  We must Develop.

There's only one scenaio where this works, and that's if you're able to get kids with 4-5 star SPEED, who maybe up to that point haven't worked hard enough in the weight room, aren't really playing a position they should be playing, or they're on a team that has not really played a style that showcased their talent.  Likely...it will take 2 of those three things to ever bring in players that will allow you to compete at the elite level of the SEC, without having 4 and 5 star players on the roster. 

It always sounds good to develop, and we have to do that regardless.  It's just very difficult to develop SPEED, so if your rankings are because you're getting the kids that are second tier speed, then you've got little to no chance. 

You'll end up with a team like CBB had the last two years....SLOW, that can't compete. 
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TNRazorbacker

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #60 on: February 06, 2019, 07:49:10 pm »

It is not bias or garbage, it is a mathematical calculation...

Its garbage when we don’t like it, gold when we do.

urkillnmesmalls

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #61 on: February 06, 2019, 07:55:23 pm »

Its garbage when we don’t like it, gold when we do.

The one area where I feel like the rankings fail....is that they don't assign any value to whether or not the recruits are meeting the positional needs.  For instance, BB could have loaded up on 4-5 star running backs with the promise of carrying the load, and getting to the NFL, but if he doesn't recruit high talent O-lineman, then we could GO UP in recruiting rankings, but easily GO DOWN in on the field performance. 

The rankings seem to assume that the coaches are getting the right mix of players needed, but that's not always the case, and probably leads to why some teams seem to recruit pretty well consistently, but don't seem to perform up to that level...I submit that Auburn fits that bill.  Their bad...is bad, but their rankings...are always pretty solid.  Part of that is that GM needs an elite moble QB for his system to succeed, but there's more to it than just that. 

Regardless of whether teams may recruit well and stink...the statistics bear out that if you aren't averaging in the top 10 yearly, you have virtually zero shot at a NC.  Which...is pretty compelling, and not what most people want to hear. 

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #62 on: February 06, 2019, 08:09:25 pm »

The one area where I feel like the rankings fail....is that they don't assign any value to whether or not the recruits are meeting the positional needs.  For instance, BB could have loaded up on 4-5 star running backs with the promise of carrying the load, and getting to the NFL, but if he doesn't recruit high talent O-lineman, then we could GO UP in recruiting rankings, but easily GO DOWN in on the field performance. 

The rankings seem to assume that the coaches are getting the right mix of players needed, but that's not always the case, and probably leads to why some teams seem to recruit pretty well consistently, but don't seem to perform up to that level...I submit that Auburn fits that bill.  Their bad...is bad, but their rankings...are always pretty solid.  Part of that is that GM needs an elite moble QB for his system to succeed, but there's more to it than just that. 

Regardless of whether teams may recruit well and stink...the statistics bear out that if you aren't averaging in the top 10 yearly, you have virtually zero shot at a NC.  Which...is pretty compelling, and not what most people want to hear. 

Yep, what is missing in the recruiting rankings is not so much the rated talent of the players signed, but what a team actually needed in order to fill positions of need and whether or not that was accomplished. Now those rankings would be fun to discuss. It is very possible that a team with lower ranked talent overall, filled more positions of need more adequately, than a team who has an overall higher recruiting ranking.
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hawgdavis

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #63 on: February 06, 2019, 09:39:08 pm »

Obviously the recruiting rankings debate goes on every year. Some people say they are not accurate and others point to teams success year after year if having top classes and that that must have some merit. But this year for sure just doesn’t make sense to me.

On rivals we are ranked #18. We have 26 commits with 14/4 star and 12/3 star

Teams ranked ahead of us:

Penn State 20-13/7
Notre Dame 21-11/10
Nebraska 26-10/16
Tennessee 21-11/10
USC 20-10/10

No 5 stars for any of them. (By the way, cases could be made we have a stronger class than Florida, Auburn, and Florida staye. But since they have at least a 5 star I’m keaving them out) So we have here 5 programs that have an established history of success. All have less 4 stars than us, and even in some cases less 3 stars as well. Now how in the world can someone say these aren’t garbage rankings? 


I was just looking at the same and scratching my head. A&M has a couple 5 stars but several less four stars and they are top 10 I just don’t get it. If we continue to recruit like this or maybe get a higher number of 4 star guys and less 3 star I think we will compete for 2nd at least in the West. Until Saban is gone it will have to be a fluke for anyone else to win the West. Maybe the O we run we will be able to execute as well as Clemson does and give Bama fits. One can hope
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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #64 on: February 07, 2019, 03:36:48 am »

It is not bias or garbage, it is a mathematical calculation...

 Aaaannnndddd, THAT's why it's all bunk. You take measurements, you court kids, you follow whose successful, but these damn *'s and stuff have been voodoo hooey since day 1. The only thing legit between the measurable's and the awarding of stars is the measurable's, and they'll lie to you too..! Everything is subjective

LZH

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #65 on: February 07, 2019, 04:13:06 am »

Recruiting services find the best players in the country (which you and I could do from our living rooms), then do little better than wild guess work on everyone else based on if teams with traditional success want them.  That's it.  There is your correlation.

That's probably the main reason I have had problems following recruiting with any consistency over the years.  If a player can move up or down depending on who is recruiting him, then what good are these websites?  Can't they evaluate these kids on their own?  I mean, they're charging people money and pretending to be experts, but yet rely on the Alabamas and Clemsons of the CFB world to do the work for them.

It seems to me that if someone is pretty internet savvy, he could sit at home and 'evaluate' kids from all over - check out other sites (or even message boards) and see who's in on who and throw a star rating at a kid based on someone else's work/opinion/assessment.  Then get us suckers to pay him $10 a month to view his 'expertise'.

Mainly, I just read what you guy post on here, but I've wanted to get more into the recruiting game for years, it looks like fun (and yeah, it is a game all unto itself).  However, if the needle keeps moving on a kid depending on whether or not a blueblood program offers or backs off, it's hard to keep up when you know it is mostly BS.  Have a team of ex-coaches, players, etc., scout around a particular region and take ownership by publicly signing their name on each report or article.  I'd respect that a lot more and might even sign up.....even if they're wrong as much as they are right.

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #66 on: February 07, 2019, 06:08:27 am »

That's probably the main reason I have had problems following recruiting with any consistency over the years.  If a player can move up or down depending on who is recruiting him, then what good are these websites?  Can't they evaluate these kids on their own?  I mean, they're charging people money and pretending to be experts, but yet rely on the Alabamas and Clemsons of the CFB world to do the work for them.

It seems to me that if someone is pretty internet savvy, he could sit at home and 'evaluate' kids from all over - check out other sites (or even message boards) and see who's in on who and throw a star rating at a kid based on someone else's work/opinion/assessment.  Then get us suckers to pay him $10 a month to view his 'expertise'.

Mainly, I just read what you guy post on here, but I've wanted to get more into the recruiting game for years, it looks like fun (and yeah, it is a game all unto itself).  However, if the needle keeps moving on a kid depending on whether or not a blueblood program offers or backs off, it's hard to keep up when you know it is mostly BS.  Have a team of ex-coaches, players, etc., scout around a particular region and take ownership by publicly signing their name on each report or article.  I'd respect that a lot more and might even sign up.....even if they're wrong as much as they are right.

What might produce interesting results and a lot of great conversation would be if a company like 247 would create their own evaluation team that consisted of 5-10 groups of evaluators that visited these school sponsored and other "elite" camps and evaluated talent on-site. These teams would need to consist of former coaches who had extensive experience in evaluating college level talent in each area...OL, TE/WR, RB, QB, etc, etc. Based on what they witnessed in terms of various drills in these camps, combined with game film and the level of competition of these players participation levels, they could evaluate and rate players through a combination of film and in-person evaluation.

Each week they would spread out across the country going to different venues to evaluate a collection of players at these camps. I would think that might be far more revealing and accurate and something that more people might be willing to purchase.
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Hugo Bezdek

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #67 on: February 07, 2019, 09:27:09 am »

That's probably the main reason I have had problems following recruiting with any consistency over the years.  If a player can move up or down depending on who is recruiting him, then what good are these websites?  Can't they evaluate these kids on their own?  I mean, they're charging people money and pretending to be experts, but yet rely on the Alabamas and Clemsons of the CFB world to do the work for them.

It seems to me that if someone is pretty internet savvy, he could sit at home and 'evaluate' kids from all over - check out other sites (or even message boards) and see who's in on who and throw a star rating at a kid based on someone else's work/opinion/assessment.  Then get us suckers to pay him $10 a month to view his 'expertise'.

Mainly, I just read what you guy post on here, but I've wanted to get more into the recruiting game for years, it looks like fun (and yeah, it is a game all unto itself).  However, if the needle keeps moving on a kid depending on whether or not a blueblood program offers or backs off, it's hard to keep up when you know it is mostly BS.  Have a team of ex-coaches, players, etc., scout around a particular region and take ownership by publicly signing their name on each report or article.  I'd respect that a lot more and might even sign up.....even if they're wrong as much as they are right.

I've always said the rankings are somewhat self-fulfilling. It's fairly obvious most of the time who the very top talent is, but there's a broad base of 3-4 Star talent and those that go to established programs with good coaching of course are going to develop more than those who don't. So a 3 Star bumped to 4 is a pretty safe bet in the right programs. You have to have talent, but you also have to have the coaching to develop it. The programs loading up on 5-Star talent are differentiating themselves talent-wise. After that it's coaching and development and the recruiting services are placing their bets on proven winners most of the time.
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#1 STUNNA

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #68 on: February 07, 2019, 09:55:46 am »

IMO if Burks would have went to camps he would be up there.
He was 22nd rated recruit in the country at one time.... but never cared to play the recruiting game.. pretty sad how that works..lol
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Been10Hog

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #69 on: February 07, 2019, 09:59:26 am »

Would like for someone with more patience than me to form a rating system for fun. Take the highest composite ranking ever given to recruits and make that their ranking. Then do the calculations. If we calculated Henry, Burks and all our recruits when they had their highest ranking and do the same with other teams, it would be interesting to see where we would land. These last minute drops by our recruits in the rankings wouldn't matter. Go for it somebody!
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LJHOG

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #70 on: February 07, 2019, 02:41:06 pm »

Rivals ranked us 18.  ESPN and 24/7 23.  Forget numbers and look at content of the class.  Considering we play in the SECw this class ranks as not good enough to make us even remotely competitive.  Sorry Charlie.
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Wildhog

Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #71 on: February 07, 2019, 02:43:49 pm »

Rivals ranked us 18.  ESPN and 24/7 23.  Forget numbers and look at content of the class.  Considering we play in the SECw this class ranks as not good enough to make us even remotely competitive.  Sorry Charlie.

We gained more ground against the SEC-W than we ever have in a single class. 

urkillnmesmalls

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #72 on: February 08, 2019, 02:34:06 pm »

Yep, what is missing in the recruiting rankings is not so much the rated talent of the players signed, but what a team actually needed in order to fill positions of need and whether or not that was accomplished. Now those rankings would be fun to discuss. It is very possible that a team with lower ranked talent overall, filled more positions of need more adequately, than a team who has an overall higher recruiting ranking.

People don't like to hear it, but BP was bringing in these highly rated WR's one after the other, and it was making our recruiting look pretty good those last two seasons, but to your point, it wasn't addressing the overall need.  To top it off, they weren't exactly high moral fiber players in most instances, and they flamed out. 

The days of getting a kid in who has dreams of playing WR, and converting him to S....are over.  Those kids are transferring.  They aren't even phased by sitting out a year, and more and more of them are finding aways around it.  The graduate transfer rule, is now becoming far more about the top programs getting even better almost overnight, and that's not really helping parity in CFB. 
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: These recruiting rankings are garbage.
« Reply #73 on: February 08, 2019, 02:38:13 pm »

Rivals ranked us 18.  ESPN and 24/7 23.  Forget numbers and look at content of the class.  Considering we play in the SECw this class ranks as not good enough to make us even remotely competitive.  Sorry Charlie.

Did you think he was going to get top 5 after going 2-10?  What were YOUR expectations on where we should land nationally? 

I don't think anyone questions the fact that we are still well back...I think it's 9-10 in the SEC right?  We will have to get some difference makers in at key positions, and starting winning a few games we won't be favored in, to see us move up in the rankings. 

The national pundits....are amazed that we landed inside the top 25 off last season.  Yet our fans....think it's not good enough. 
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