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Author Topic: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams  (Read 1457 times)

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Bruinstyle2001

College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« on: December 27, 2018, 12:00:55 pm »

As I mentioned in another thread, I took umbrage with someone so flippantly stating we aren't a top 5 team.  While we may not be top 5, I definitely felt like we have been one of the 10 best teams over the last decade.  So I decided to perform an analysis over the last 10 years to see who the top team in the land was.  For those wanting to skip to the end, it was hands-down the Florida Gators. 

Here are my parameters/assumptions:
1.) I used Baseball America as my poll of choice, since it was one of the only major polls that went back 10 years online.
2.) For 2015, I was unable to locate the final Baseball America poll, so I substituted the D1Baseball poll since they tend to be very similar.
3.) If a team was unranked in the final poll, I assumed a ranking of 26.  This worked to sufficiently penalize a team finishing unranked without trying to parse who received some votes.


In total in the last 10 years, 78 different teams finished at least one season ranked in the polls.  The average team amongst these 78 teams had 5 tourney appearances, 1 CWS appearance, 0 national championships, and 3 final poll appearances.


Here is how Arkansas finished in several key categories:

Tourney Appearances: 9 (T-7th)
CWS Appearances: 4 (T-3rd)
CWS Titles: 0 (T-10th)
Final Poll Appearances: 8 (T-4th)
Average Final Poll Ranking: 15.00 (T-9th)

Dr. Starcs

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2018, 11:37:09 am »

I think the final poll ranking is the best way to determine this.

Looks like we’re a top 15 program to me.
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HogFansReunited

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2018, 01:58:15 pm »

I think the final poll ranking is the best way to determine this.

Looks like we’re a top 15 program to me.

Our average is the 9th best though. That tells me that we have been more consistent than some that have finished ahead of us in some years.

Florida’s average final poll ranking is 8 but that is the best average in the country.

Bruinstyle2001

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2018, 02:12:31 pm »

Our average is the 9th best though. That tells me that we have been more consistent than some that have finished ahead of us in some years.

Florida’s average final poll ranking is 8 but that is the best average in the country.

Your interpretation is correct.  Essentially it means that even given year in the past 10 years Florida would have been expected to finish 8th in the country (or in Omaha in other words), which was by far #1 amongst ranked teams.  Arkansas would be expected to finish 15th in the country (or a regional host/host candidate), which was good for a 9th place tie.

The numbers show that by any measure, Arkansas appears to have been a top 10 team in the past 10 years.

One other program I took note of is Clemson.  As much as we have heard about them in the past 10 years, I was shocked by how little return came from it in postseason play.  I thought they may be the most overrated team of the past 10 years.

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2019, 12:39:58 am »

Slam me all you want . . . yet we can’t win an outright championship.  Which is just frustrating as all get out for the team and fan base.
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Kevin

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2019, 08:37:45 am »

Slam me all you want . . . yet we can’t win an outright championship.  Which is just frustrating as all get out for the team and fan base.


Frustrating, yes
But we have a fighting chance, most years
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PorkRyan

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2019, 11:01:32 am »

These are difficult because of time frame and how much weight do you place on a NC vs end of the year ranking?  Texas and South Carolina are behind us.  Texas has 6 titles, 6 runners up and a slew of CWS appearances.  South Carolina has two titles and went to 3 straight title games.  When you do that, you can have a few bad seasons and still be a top program.  Miami is another program that would be hard to place behind Arkansas.  Oregon State has 3 NC's, that's another that is above us.  Now, I do think our trend over the next 10 years may be higher than some of the other programs.  I think us, TCU and Vandy are in that same boat.  I think we are a top 15 program who could move into the top 10.
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ucahogfan

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2019, 03:39:36 pm »

These are difficult because of time frame and how much weight do you place on a NC vs end of the year ranking?  Texas and South Carolina are behind us.  Texas has 6 titles, 6 runners up and a slew of CWS appearances.  South Carolina has two titles and went to 3 straight title games.  When you do that, you can have a few bad seasons and still be a top program.  Miami is another program that would be hard to place behind Arkansas.  Oregon State has 3 NC's, that's another that is above us.  Now, I do think our trend over the next 10 years may be higher than some of the other programs.  I think us, TCU and Vandy are in that same boat.  I think we are a top 15 program who could move into the top 10.
Texas was last the runner up in 2009 which was a decade ago.  Sure, they have the same number of trips to Omaha as we do in the last 10 years, but I think everyone could agree that we have been much more successful as a program as compared to Texas over the last decade.

Oregon State won two titles in 2006 and 2007.  That is a long time ago.  South Carolina also won their titles in the early 2010s.

When I think about looking at what level the program is, I think it is a matter of who the job can attract based on the following factors:

The Facilities - Baum Stadium is consistently ranked as a top 5 facility.  We also have a crown jewel of an indoor facility and will soon break ground on a $25MM facility for players which is why our 2020 class looks as good as it does.  We almost certainly have the best collection of facilities in the country for our program.

The Fan Support - Don't think there is much to elaborate on here.  Top 3 in attendance every year.  Turned TD Ameritrade into Baum North.  Definitely one of the top fan bases along with LSU.

Coaching Stability - How many programs have had two coaches since 1970?  DVH is going to retire here in probably 8-10 years.

The Players - Andrew Benintendi, Dallas Kuechel, Logan Forsythe, Ryne Stanek, James McCann, etc.  The Hogs have a ton of guys in the pros right now and many who are making a huge impact.  I think having so many MLB players helps improve the program as well as some of those guys come back to campus to train in the offseason.  I think we are a top 2-3 program at producing MLB talent.

I'm sure there are many other factors to consider, but those are some main ones.  While I think LSU/Florida are probably the top 2 programs in the country, it could be argued that we are about the #5 program in the country.  I would rank Florida State above us as well, but other than that, I don't think it is clear cut who is better than us.  I remember Kendall Rogers mentioned us as a potential top 5 program a couple of years ago.
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ucahogfan

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2019, 03:45:08 pm »

One other program I took note of is Clemson.  As much as we have heard about them in the past 10 years, I was shocked by how little return came from it in postseason play.  I thought they may be the most overrated team of the past 10 years.
I think they are just a really solid program with a nice built in advantage of being a Southern school in the ACC conference which has some northern teams that typically aren't as good.  I don't think they have hosted a ton of regionals, but are typically a 2/3 seed.  They haven't advanced past the regional round since 2010 which is a long time.
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Mr.Gruntastic

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2019, 03:53:45 pm »

it would be hard not to include Vandy as being a top 5-10 program over the last 10 yrs.  Shows how tough the SEC truly is. 
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2019, 10:17:04 pm »

Our average is the 9th best though. That tells me that we have been more consistent than some that have finished ahead of us in some years.

Florida’s average final poll ranking is 8 but that is the best average in the country.

Gotcha. I was misinterpreting the info. And admittedly I’m still a little grumpy and bitter from Omaha.

Bruinstyle2001

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2019, 07:59:34 am »

I think they are just a really solid program with a nice built in advantage of being a Southern school in the ACC conference which has some northern teams that typically aren't as good.  I don't think they have hosted a ton of regionals, but are typically a 2/3 seed.  They haven't advanced past the regional round since 2010 which is a long time.

I happen to have a chart that has tracked who was been the #1 seeds since we went to the 16 regional format back in 1999.  Since 2009 (or the last 10 years), Clemson has been a #1 seed 5 times (2009, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2018) and only managed to win 1 of those regionals (2009) and never made it to Omaha.  Clemson earned its CWS berth in 2010 by winning the Auburn regional as a #2 seed and winning the super it hosted against fellow #2 seed Alabama. 

For comparison sake, Arkansas has been given a #1 seed 3 times since 2009.  Arkansas won 2 or those 3 regionals (2010 and 2018) and reached Omaha 1 of those times (2018).  Arkansas has also reached Omaha 3 times as a 2 seed (2009, 2012, 2015). 
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ucahogfan

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2019, 10:06:56 am »

I happen to have a chart that has tracked who was been the #1 seeds since we went to the 16 regional format back in 1999.  Since 2009 (or the last 10 years), Clemson has been a #1 seed 5 times (2009, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2018) and only managed to win 1 of those regionals (2009) and never made it to Omaha.  Clemson earned its CWS berth in 2010 by winning the Auburn regional as a #2 seed and winning the super it hosted against fellow #2 seed Alabama. 

For comparison sake, Arkansas has been given a #1 seed 3 times since 2009.  Arkansas won 2 or those 3 regionals (2010 and 2018) and reached Omaha 1 of those times (2018).  Arkansas has also reached Omaha 3 times as a 2 seed (2009, 2012, 2015).
That is interesting to think that Clemson has hosted a regional the last three years.  It hasn't seemed like they have mainly because they haven't advanced.

I think Clemson is the perfect example of how location is able to game the RPI system which makes sure they have a top 10 RPI as long as they have a decent record.  The furthest they will travel for a non-con game this year is Conway, SC which is just over 4 hours away and never leave the Eastern Time Zone at all during the year.  Meanwhile, we have non-con games in LA and Austin this year which are a long way away and will play in three different time zones.  I think that is why we have been more successful in postseason play.
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PorkRyan

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2019, 02:02:41 pm »

Speaking of RPI, college basketball is using a different formula this year, what is baseball using for 2019? 
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Bruinstyle2001

Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2019, 02:13:14 pm »

Speaking of RPI, college basketball is using a different formula this year, what is baseball using for 2019? 

As of now, there are no plans for baseball to change the RPI.  But the ACBA Primer meeting is coming up where the ADs/Coaches discuss potential rule changes and baseball issues for the coming year(s).  I don't believe that RPI changes are one of the topics that will come up -- the big issues this year are getting a third paid assistant coach and increasing the number of dead periods in the recruiting process.
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TeufelHog

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #15 on: January 02, 2019, 09:07:34 pm »


Frustrating, yes
But we have a fighting chance, most years
Agree Kevin, and if we keep building on the many positives mentioned by ucahogfan's post I think we will soon.
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Rambo Hog

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Re: College Baseball - 10 Year History - Top Teams
« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2019, 02:37:09 am »

What is ever more crazy was the fact  if you look at our  ranking by most polls before ncaa tournament started there was no reason for us not to host back in 2011 with us being ranked around 14 to sixteen in most polls and and a rpi of around 11 to fourteen and UCLA had an RPI of 34 and got picked to host in what was criminal for us not to host and then ship us off to Arizona State .2013 we should of hosted as especially considering we were ranked 12 by baseball America before the NCAA tournament and  shipped us off to play at Kansas state's crappy rubber baseball field which hurt us in the first game .
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