Hogville Info
• 10,015,643 Posts
• 401,463 Topics
• 22,977 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Pages: 1 [2] 3   Go Down

Author Topic: Markets.......  (Read 2022 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #50 on: November 09, 2018, 11:29:28 am »

S&P is back down near it's 200 day moving average. If it goes below we could be in for a death cross, which is when the 50 day ma goes below the 200 day ma.
Logged

HawgWild

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 19
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 5,215
  • Left lane, Hey!? Where’s my hammer?
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #51 on: November 14, 2018, 04:14:38 pm »

Well, this isn’t any fun.
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #52 on: November 14, 2018, 04:36:28 pm »

Well, this isn’t any fun.

Lol, my best advice, quit looking!
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #53 on: November 14, 2018, 04:49:37 pm »

Well, this isn’t any fun.
No, and it's not over. I think we're failing on s&p support at 2730, next support levels are 2600 and 2530. Odds are we'll bounce on one of those.

That being said, Russell's in a death cross and NAS and S&P are probably headed there.
Logged

HotlantaHog

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #54 on: November 15, 2018, 10:52:16 am »

Insider buying has picked up quite a bit in the past eight weeks -- usually a very good sign for the outlook for the next 6-12 months .... (though doesn't say anything about today, tomorrow, next week or next month.)

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #55 on: November 16, 2018, 03:07:04 pm »

Market's been under the 200 day moving average most of the time for the past month and for this entire week.
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #56 on: November 19, 2018, 08:42:50 am »

Nasdaq is 70 points(1%) away from a death cross. Goldman Sachs forecasts sub-2% growth in 3rd quarter 2019. :(
Logged

sevenof400

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 177
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 10,772
  • In Memorium: B"Fett's libido - lost 1967
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #57 on: November 19, 2018, 06:14:48 pm »

Nasdaq is 70 points(1%) away from a death cross. Goldman Sachs forecasts sub-2% growth in 3rd quarter 2019. :(

You're on top of this aren't you, Benton Piggie? 

May a golden cross be in your near future!

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #58 on: November 19, 2018, 08:42:11 pm »

You're on top of this aren't you, Benton Piggie? 

May a golden cross be in your near future!

As long as it's not a white cross, he'll take it!
Logged

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #59 on: November 19, 2018, 08:44:31 pm »

Nasdaq is 70 points(1%) away from a death cross. Goldman Sachs forecasts sub-2% growth in 3rd quarter 2019. :(

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2012/07/death-cross-its-the-lag-stupid/
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #60 on: November 20, 2018, 07:52:09 am »

We are -350 premarket. Is today/this week the flush?
Logged

sevenof400

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 177
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 10,772
  • In Memorium: B"Fett's libido - lost 1967
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #61 on: November 20, 2018, 08:17:02 am »

I've been following the markets a bit closer as of late because we could FINALLY move money from a p poor performing 401K (thanks for nothing, T Rowe Price and employer for only offering crap performing funds) over to an IRA.  We have some ground to make up as we head toward the retirement years. 
Logged

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #62 on: November 20, 2018, 12:12:09 pm »

Unless there is a massive move tomorrow, this will be the first time in 33 years that HD did not bounce off Q3 earnings into Thanksgiving, as part of a previously quite reliable trade. I almost bought it several times but wanted to see how LOW reported, see how the housing starts figures looked, and simply see that the overall current market sentiment is about as fragile as a hog football fan.

The market sentiment is getting bearish and defensive due but certainly not limited to:

-earnings peak concerns
-earnings and general global growth is slowing
-forward guidance is softening
-margin compression continues as wages rise
-tough tax reform comps on the horizon for 2019
-tax reform impact has fizzled
-trade/tariffs/China
-hawkish Fed/interest rates on the rise
-housing market stalled out
-general Trump bubble ready to go the way of Atlantic City concerns
-general lack of next "supply side artificial economic enhancement"
-oil is just a mess

Hard to see a Santa Claus rally with so many headwinds in play and with utilities leading the market, lol. I've been mainly sitting on my hands and leaning into some of those defensive plays like AEP, VZ, and CVS. 

The S&P really seems hell bent on retesting the February and April 2600 neighborhood at least a couple more times before a washout can be called.

Logged

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #63 on: November 20, 2018, 05:16:42 pm »

I'm about to run out of money for these buying opportunities, I gave my broker some today, we're shooting for some more dollar averaging!
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #64 on: November 20, 2018, 07:44:36 pm »

Unless there is a massive move tomorrow, this will be the first time in 33 years that HD did not bounce off Q3 earnings into Thanksgiving, as part of a previously quite reliable trade. I almost bought it several times but wanted to see how LOW reported, see how the housing starts figures looked, and simply see that the overall current market sentiment is about as fragile as a hog football fan.

The market sentiment is getting bearish and defensive due but certainly not limited to:

-earnings peak concerns
-earnings and general global growth is slowing
-forward guidance is softening
-margin compression continues as wages rise
-tough tax reform comps on the horizon for 2019
-tax reform impact has fizzled
-trade/tariffs/China
-hawkish Fed/interest rates on the rise
-housing market stalled out
-general Trump bubble ready to go the way of Atlantic City concerns
-general lack of next "supply side artificial economic enhancement"
-oil is just a mess

Hard to see a Santa Claus rally with so many headwinds in play and with utilities leading the market, lol. I've been mainly sitting on my hands and leaning into some of those defensive plays like AEP, VZ, and CVS. 

The S&P really seems hell bent on retesting the February and April 2600 neighborhood at least a couple more times before a washout can be called.
Good list.
Logged

majestic

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #65 on: November 20, 2018, 10:06:13 pm »

I'm about to run out of money for these buying opportunities, I gave my broker some today, we're shooting for some more dollar averaging!
No darn. I'm about to be so, so rich. Crapitol one did just raise my MM account to 2%, though. So I have that going for me.
Logged

twistitup

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #66 on: November 21, 2018, 07:09:55 am »

I'm about to run out of money for these buying opportunities

I've heard this so many times in the past.

lol...be careful rice.

Why did you give it to a broker if you knew what the good buying opportunities were?
Logged

HotlantaHog

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #67 on: November 21, 2018, 08:23:54 am »

John Templeton always said to buy at the point of maximum pessimism, which was great advice though it's often hard to tell exactly where that is. If you are a value investor, you buy stocks that are cheap compared to their private market value and if they get cheaper you buy more ....

It's very interesting to me that insider buying has turned very bullish... Insiders usually are buying stocks that they know the worth of.

There are lots of headwinds out there. GDP is slowing though still doing pretty well, housing is declining in the face of higher mortgage rates, tariffs are causing some disruption in the US, oil prices are falling and causing weakness in investment, the Fed is raising rates to a neutral level though rate hikes are data dependent. And tech stocks are under severe pressure, evidently partly because of a rotation out of tech.

It's worth noting 70% of the US economy is consumer spending, and the consumer is doing well. Unemployment is near a 50-year low, pay increases have been gradually picking up, the savings rate is reasonably high by US standards, inflation is around 2% ... all in all, a pretty good picture.

I feel like the problems are pretty well understood in the market and all in all it's not a bad time to be buying.
Logged

sevenof400

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 177
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 10,772
  • In Memorium: B"Fett's libido - lost 1967
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #68 on: November 21, 2018, 08:33:46 am »

.... I feel like the problems are pretty well understood in the market and all in all it's not a bad time to be buying.

...or staying in for the long term I hope!
Logged

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #69 on: November 21, 2018, 10:18:14 am »

I've heard this so many times in the past.

lol...be careful rice.

Why did you give it to a broker if you knew what the good buying opportunities were?

I gave it to my broker because this is a mananged account, he gets .005% of the account, he works for his money, lol. I didn't say I knew the exact ones to buy, although I'll add to a few in my self directed account.
Logged

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #70 on: November 21, 2018, 10:19:44 am »

...or staying in for the long term I hope!

Yep, I don't time the market, I'm not smart enough.
Logged

HawgPilot

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Total likes: 4
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 1,492
  • Mile High Club- President®
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #71 on: November 26, 2018, 08:28:53 pm »

I'm curious of the boards outlook on green energy and waste to energy sector?   RSG, WGN and CWST as some of my current holdings.  Any thoughts on this area of the economy going into 2019?
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #72 on: November 27, 2018, 08:50:19 am »

Sorry, I don't know much about the renewable energy sector.

I'm a technical options swing trader so my news of the day is...Nasdaq is now in a 50/200 day moving average death cross, S&P is 20 points away.

 Carter Braxton-Worth on CNBC, a chartist, thinks we're going lower if we can't get above the most recent high of 2940, which is highly unlikely by the end of the year. I wish I could find the video clip.
Logged

woodrow hog call

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #73 on: November 27, 2018, 08:57:16 am »

Sorry, I don't know much about the renewable energy sector.

I'm a technical options swing trader so my news of the day is...Nasdaq is now in a 50/200 day moving average death cross, S&P is 20 points away.

 Carter Braxton-Worth on CNBC, a chartist, thinks we're going lower if we can't get above the most recent high of 2940, which is highly unlikely by the end of the year. I wish I could find the video clip.

Can you explain the term “death cross”, for somebody that has hardly any market knowledge at all?
Logged

sevenof400

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 177
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 10,772
  • In Memorium: B"Fett's libido - lost 1967
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #74 on: November 27, 2018, 09:06:24 am »

Can you explain the term “death cross”, for somebody that has hardly any market knowledge at all?

This may help: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp
The video on that page is helpful.

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #75 on: December 03, 2018, 12:35:25 pm »

Good but weakening bounce in the market today coming out of the Trump Trade Tariff Timeout with China. Given the 90-day date window outlined, it'll be interesting to see if sentiment will remain largely sell the rally based. Seems to give off that aroma today so I'd be weary of buying today.

Technically speaking based on the 3 month chart of the S&P, we've got two support bounces off ~2640 and two resistance tops around ~2800. Minus any new developments, it will be interesting to see if the S&P remains in this range. Next up for the markets is digesting the jobs number later this week, which I suspect may be weaker than expectations.
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #76 on: December 03, 2018, 07:45:40 pm »

S&P blew through the 50 and 200 day moving averages, which never crossed. That's a good sign, maybe we'll have a Santa Clause rally.
Logged

twistitup

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #77 on: December 04, 2018, 01:45:41 pm »

S&P blew through the 50 and 200 day moving averages, which never crossed. That's a good sign, maybe we'll have a Santa Clause rally.

or not
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #78 on: December 04, 2018, 02:30:36 pm »

The most-cited reason for the downturn today was that the trade talk progress Trump talked about may have been "embellished" by him.
Logged

majestic

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #79 on: December 04, 2018, 02:40:29 pm »

The most-cited reason for the downturn today was that the trade talk progress Trump talked about may have been "embellished" by him.
Yes. It's impossible for him to remain quiet.
Logged

twistitup

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #80 on: December 04, 2018, 02:40:58 pm »

The most-cited reason for the downturn today was that the trade talk progress Trump talked about may have been "embellished" by him.

Shocker
Logged

HawgWild

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 19
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 5,215
  • Left lane, Hey!? Where’s my hammer?
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #81 on: December 04, 2018, 03:50:48 pm »

"Embellished"? Mr. Tariff? No way!
Logged

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #82 on: December 04, 2018, 05:12:12 pm »

The market is either going to go up, or down. This information can be yours for a subscription price of $10k/yr, limited spots available.
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #83 on: December 05, 2018, 01:44:04 pm »

The whole thing  was weird. Market went down Monday after Trump's positive tweet was downplayed BY HIS OWN STAFF, then he sabotaged it himself with the Tariff Man threat.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/dec/4/donald-trump-china-trade-deal-unravels/
Logged

HawgWild

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 19
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 5,215
  • Left lane, Hey!? Where’s my hammer?
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #84 on: December 05, 2018, 03:56:16 pm »

I think it dawned on folks that it was just a bunch of darn. Nothing was changing.
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #85 on: December 05, 2018, 06:46:43 pm »

Dow pre-market down 400 earlier, down over 200 now, mostly due to confusion.
Logged

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #86 on: December 05, 2018, 08:34:50 pm »

I think yesterday’s action was obviously trade confusion related but also the algos triggering a lot of technical based selling. What leads me to that conclusion is volatility was relatively low and stable.

Now, we get a jobs number Friday and I am really concerned it could be soft and below expectations. If so, we’re gonna probably retest the low 2600 neighborhood.

Then we have to take in the Fed minutes in the middle of the month and hope to hell Powell reiterates a more dovish tone, preferably that after a December hike, he’d like to hold at that level for a considerable amount of time.

I think the Santa Clause rally is out this year. Sentiment is spooked a bit because buying the dips has stalled out and some of the more defensive names are starting to get more expensive. It’s leading to more selling the rally and then hand sitting.
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #87 on: December 05, 2018, 09:39:22 pm »

I don't want to scare anyone, but interesting article on Elliott wave theory predicting a bear market down to 2100 before peaking at 4000. Moral to the story: buy and hold investors will do well.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-wave-theory-suggests-an-unsettling-event-will-occur-in-the-stock-market-2018-12-03?link=sfmw_tw

Logged

sevenof400

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 177
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 10,772
  • In Memorium: B"Fett's libido - lost 1967
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #88 on: December 06, 2018, 10:09:57 am »

I think yesterday’s action was obviously trade confusion related but also the algos triggering a lot of technical based selling. What leads me to that conclusion is volatility was relatively low and stable.

Now, we get a jobs number Friday and I am really concerned it could be soft and below expectations. If so, we’re gonna probably retest the low 2600 neighborhood.

Then we have to take in the Fed minutes in the middle of the month and hope to hell Powell reiterates a more dovish tone, preferably that after a December hike, he’d like to hold at that level for a considerable amount of time.

I think the Santa Clause rally is out this year. Sentiment is spooked a bit because buying the dips has stalled out and some of the more defensive names are starting to get more expensive. It’s leading to more selling the rally and then hand sitting.

What the market needs is Scarlett Johansson's Liberally and Amply Slathered Frito Pie!
Logged

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #89 on: December 06, 2018, 11:17:13 am »

What the market needs is Scarlett Johansson's Liberally and Amply Slathered Frito Pie!

I was thinking of maybe going negative Pi.
Logged

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #90 on: December 06, 2018, 05:30:51 pm »

Good to see the S&P bounce off the 2620 session low and finish strong. Seems like we’re in a meandering range between 2600 and 2800. The 2600 support is more likely to be retested than the 2800 resistance between tomorrow’s job number and the 12-19 Fed meeting.

The market is in a unique place. We need the Fed to act no more hawkish than a December hike and then provide commentary that rates need to hold for a considerable period of time. In order to get that, we actually need soft, decelerating news. If the jobs number tomorrow is too hot, look out. If it’s too low, which I fear, look out. We need it to be this Goldilocks slightly soft, decelerating vs expectations.

Once we get the jobs number and the Fed minutes out of the way, we’ll be back to trade/tariff/China/Trump headlines reactivity until earnings season comes back into play. So, I expect range bound at best with more support retests and maybe even getting into the 2500s in the near term. That of course is minus new developments, supply side based stimulus, etc.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 07:31:27 pm by Boardon Hamsay »
Logged

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #91 on: December 06, 2018, 08:00:32 pm »

Good to see the S&P bounce off the 2620 session low and finish strong. Seems like we’re in a meandering range between 2600 and 2800. The 2600 support is more likely to be retested than the 2800 resistance between tomorrow’s job number and the 12-19 Fed meeting.

The market is in a unique place. We need the Fed to act no more hawkish than a December hike and then provide commentary that rates need to hold for a considerable period of time. In order to get that, we actually need soft, decelerating news. If the jobs number tomorrow is too hot, look out. If it’s too low, which I fear, look out. We need it to be this Goldilocks slightly soft, decelerating vs expectations.

Once we get the jobs number and the Fed minutes out of the way, we’ll be back to trade/tariff/China/Trump headlines reactivity until earnings season comes back into play. So, I expect range bound at best with more support retests and maybe even getting into the 2500s in the near term. That of course is minus new developments, supply side based stimulus, etc.

7% Santa Claus rally between now and the end of the year, or so some talking head said on Tuesday on Fast Money.

twistitup

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #92 on: December 07, 2018, 05:38:11 am »

Futures not looking promising
Logged

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #93 on: December 07, 2018, 06:23:32 am »

Futures not looking promising

The jobs number this morning will be the driver of today’s session. I’m hoping for low 190ks, just below expectations of 198k. Anything above 210k or below 190k may enhance the selling.
Logged

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #94 on: December 07, 2018, 07:55:29 am »

7% solution, keep the faith! Oh, jobs came in around 155k.
Logged

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #95 on: December 07, 2018, 08:04:44 am »

Yeah, 155k was very soft vs expectations but appears to have flipped the futures. Perhaps buyers like that low number more than most thought.
Logged

Pulled(PP)pork

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 451
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 23,636
  • Fresno St. 11-2 MWC Champions!!
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #96 on: December 07, 2018, 08:09:34 am »

Yeah, 155k was very soft vs expectations but appears to have flipped the futures. Perhaps buyers like that low number more than most thought.
so, the futures are looking promising?
Logged

Boardon Hamsay

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 435
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,340
  • Eponymous Keeper of the War Damn Mockingbird Unis
Re: Markets.......
« Reply #97 on: December 07, 2018, 11:00:49 am »

so, the futures are looking promising?

Low volume futures did turn positive. However, Powell's commentary about the strength of the economy and the jobs number strong miss vs expectations have investors still trimming from the opening strength.  Gonna be choppy waters until the 12/19 Fed meeting unless Powell comes out and explicitly says, "We see reason to raise rates 25 bps in December and then pause for a considerable amount of time."

For the time being, I'm hanging out in stocks not levered to China and that are defensive and value to value/income blends. AEP, VZ, PANW, PEP, CSCO, CL, CVS, etc. I also own BP for the yield despite oil being a mess as of late. I suspect even with the OPEC cut, oil is probably going to the mid to high 40s at some point prior to seasonal demand picking back up in 2019Q1.
Logged

twistitup

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #98 on: December 07, 2018, 11:10:12 am »

Computers do most of the trading based on algorithms ... true?
Logged

BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #99 on: December 07, 2018, 11:29:20 am »

Good to see the S&P bounce off the 2620 session low and finish strong. Seems like we’re in a meandering range between 2600 and 2800. The 2600 support is more likely to be retested than the 2800 resistance between tomorrow’s job number and the 12-19 Fed meeting.

The market is in a unique place. We need the Fed to act no more hawkish than a December hike and then provide commentary that rates need to hold for a considerable period of time. In order to get that, we actually need soft, decelerating news. If the jobs number tomorrow is too hot, look out. If it’s too low, which I fear, look out. We need it to be this Goldilocks slightly soft, decelerating vs expectations.

Once we get the jobs number and the Fed minutes out of the way, we’ll be back to trade/tariff/China/Trump headlines reactivity until earnings season comes back into play. So, I expect range bound at best with more support retests and maybe even getting into the 2500s in the near term. That of course is minus new developments, supply side based stimulus, etc.


Good post. I can totally see us bouncing back up to 2800 in the near term, but this is starting to look more and more like a top to me. I don't know if the fed or Powell can make it go higher.


On a brighter note, MJ is up 6% due to MO buying a 45% stake in CRON.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas