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Author Topic: Markets.......  (Read 1039 times)

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ricepig

Markets.......
« on: October 24, 2018, 07:23:22 pm »

This last month hasn't been much fun, as one who generally stays invested, it's been tough to check the end o of the day bean count. I think I'll quit looking for awhile. I manage about half of my portfolio, and Stephens does the other half, about all I can say is we both sucked, lol.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2018, 08:30:30 pm »

This last month hasn't been much fun, as one who generally stays invested, it's been tough to check the end o of the day bean count. I think I'll quit looking for awhile. I manage about half of my portfolio, and Stephens does the other half, about all I can say is we both sucked, lol.
Yep, this is the other side of the coin we have to endure from time to time IF we want to invest in stocks, particularly if we're truly investor (holding for long term) rather than traders or speculators.

Obviously a lot of "wisdom" being thrown around as to whether or not this signals the start of the long awaited/often predicted "bear market". And while some sectors such as much of the NASDAQ/high tech/high growth areas are approaching (or actually already)and/or entered a longer correction, the only way one will truly know as to whether or not the bear growls much further is looking back on what's happening now and being able to put it into perspective. The one truism that we DO know is that the market HATES and DESPISES uncertainty. And while the future is never certain, at this point there are a lot of things that have folks spooked: the specter of continuing rise in interest rates (although with the flight to quality treasury yields have fallen quite a bit), the nervousness about such issues as the upcoming mid-term election, the hint of global growth slowing, uptick in inflation, Brexit negotiation difficulties, the Italian debt situation, the continued strengthening in the dollar and its negative impact on multi-national companies earnings, etc. etc. etc.

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Pulled(PP)pork

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2018, 08:33:41 pm »

a friend Ive been asking for investment advice from, said he lost another 7500 today.   He was still laughing about it, makes me wonder what kind of money he has    :o


PP
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2018, 11:17:46 pm »

a friend Ive been asking for investment advice from, said he lost another 7500 today.   He was still laughing about it, makes me wonder what kind of money he has    :o


PP
Remember one key thing: Unless you actually sell you've lost nothing except on paper; unless you actually sell you've gained nothing except on paper. BTW how would you feel if it was close to $90k just today; close to $150k this week thus far? However........this too shall pass.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2018, 11:27:47 pm by Vantage 8 dude »
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Pulled(PP)pork

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2018, 11:55:00 pm »

Remember one key thing: Unless you actually sell you've lost nothing except on paper; unless you actually sell you've gained nothing except on paper. BTW how would you feel if it was close to $90k just today; close to $150k this week thus far? However........this too shall pass.
I don't ever think I will have to worry about it.  I got $10K in an old IRA that ive no clue how it's doing until I get my quarterly statement.  then I get miffed it's losing money.


PP
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 12:01:36 pm »

Feels like a market that doesn't quite know where to go yet. Tech is taking it hard from profit taking/cash raising and then it's a bit of a shart show on anything resembling a sector rotation or strategic shift based (i.e. growth to value) target.

Too much uncertainty around trade/tariffs/anything levered to China/perceived global slowdown to be able to trust a lot of the industrials or materials and to an extent consumer discretionary.

The Fed and Trump have a would be game of chicken going on as it relates to interest rate increases that only compounds the negative sentiment around the financial and real estate sectors.   

Energy is a mess driven by seasonal consumption headwinds vs Geo-ecopolitical events in Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran that appear to be a headwind one hour and a tailwind the next.

Utilities and Consumer Staples seem like a battleground between short term hedging and those looking for a longer run, bear based, defensive/safety/dividend/next recession based play.

Heath care is getting pin actioned a bit from the overall sell the news sentiment and what I would call bear vs bull sector leadership and strategic indecisiveness.

For me, I've put a little cash into my S&P index fund and then yesterday, started nibbling at high quality growth names with little China exposure that fell below my original cost basis (CRM, GOOGL, AMZN). I've also nibbled a bit at VZ as a defensive and yield play.

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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 12:02:42 pm »

Looks as if (at least for now) we may be beginning a short term rally in the markets. I say short term because I believe some will begin selling into any rally to lighten their risk. Watch the volume-if it's high on a recovery then the lows have likely been seen-at least in the short run. However, I believe there will be several retests of whatever levels the various indexes settle.

Remember too that being this late in the year there will be the normal tax selling for anyone who wants to use the recent high volatility to reposition portfolios going into 2019. One last thing: I suspect that in line with the tax selling   some of the stocks that have been beaten down the most MAY rebound, at least in the short term. Those who sell in taxable investment accounts to take tax losses must wait at least 30 days if they wish to reestablish a position in the same security. This is the "wash sale" rule; therefore, it's certainly conceivable that some stocks depressed by such selling could rebound by folks reestablishing positions after the restricted time passes.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 12:17:19 pm »

Feels like a market that doesn't quite know where to go yet. Tech is taking it hard from profit taking/cash raising and then it's a bit of a shart show on anything resembling a sector rotation or strategic shift based (i.e. growth to value) target.

Too much uncertainty around trade/tariffs/anything levered to China/perceived global slowdown to be able to trust a lot of the industrials or materials and to an extent consumer discretionary.

The Fed and Trump have a would be game of chicken going on as it relates to interest rate increases that only compounds the negative sentiment around the financial and real estate sectors.   

Energy is a mess driven by seasonal consumption headwinds vs Geo-ecopolitical events in Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran that appear to be a headwind one hour and a tailwind the next.

Utilities and Consumer Staples seem like a battleground between short term hedging and those looking for a longer run, bear based, defensive/safety/dividend/next recession based play.

Heath care is getting pin actioned a bit from the overall sell the news sentiment and what I would call bear vs bull sector leadership and strategic indecisiveness.

For me, I've put a little cash into my S&P index fund and then yesterday, started nibbling at high quality growth names with little China exposure that fell below my original cost basis (CRM, GOOGL, AMZN). I've also nibbled a bit at VZ as a defensive and yield play.
Sounds to me like a pretty solid plan. Yep, does appear that with increased macro economic uncertainty over things such as the tariffs/trade war, higher rates/inflation, questions about possible slowing global growth, etc. a lot of folks, mostly ETF and fund managers, are "cashing in a number of chips" in those areas such as tech that have been big winners over the past few years. I believe some are also nervous that with many of these companies "this is the best it gets" when it comes revenue, sales and earnings growth going forward.

So a tug-of-war between value and growth does seem to be developing. Obviously value, which has largely been out of favor, could very well be finally coming back into vogue. This would be especially true IF global growth does indeed slow. However, IMHO that does NOT negate the LONG term attractiveness of stocks such as CRM, AMZN, NVDA etc. As long as they remain at the cutting edge of LONG term growth themes such as e-commerce, AI, Blockchain technology, etc. then these companies will eventually reemerge as great long term holdings. Be forewarned, however, it WILL likely take some very strong intestinal fortitude to ride out the possible volatility of such names. It very well may be that it will take several quarters for these names to reemerge as holdings that big money wants to accumulate again. However, if the earnings and overall growth of these companies continue to move higher eventually they will regain their luster. It just may not be for some time down the road. In the meantime "dollar cost averaging" and building positions over time is not the worst strategy one can pursue.
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 02:43:53 pm »

Feels like a market that doesn't quite know where to go yet. Tech is taking it hard from profit taking/cash raising and then it's a bit of a shart show on anything resembling a sector rotation or strategic shift based (i.e. growth to value) target.

Too much uncertainty around trade/tariffs/anything levered to China/perceived global slowdown to be able to trust a lot of the industrials or materials and to an extent consumer discretionary.

The Fed and Trump have a would be game of chicken going on as it relates to interest rate increases that only compounds the negative sentiment around the financial and real estate sectors.   

Energy is a mess driven by seasonal consumption headwinds vs Geo-ecopolitical events in Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran that appear to be a headwind one hour and a tailwind the next.

Utilities and Consumer Staples seem like a battleground between short term hedging and those looking for a longer run, bear based, defensive/safety/dividend/next recession based play.

Heath care is getting pin actioned a bit from the overall sell the news sentiment and what I would call bear vs bull sector leadership and strategic indecisiveness.

For me, I've put a little cash into my S&P index fund and then yesterday, started nibbling at high quality growth names with little China exposure that fell below my original cost basis (CRM, GOOGL, AMZN). I've also nibbled a bit at VZ as a defensive and yield play.



I bought a good slug of VZ about 2 weeks ago as I had a CD come due and was mainly going for the dividend as it's one of my top 4 holdings. I wondered about it after I bought it, it naturally went down, but now I'm happy because it was between it and AT+T, lol. I didn't do AT+T because it's my #2 holding and I didn't need any more.

I'm still sitting on 33% cash, of which I'll always have at least 20% in minimum,   so I'll watch a few of my favorites and add to them if it looks like time to.
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vandybuff

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2018, 06:47:50 pm »

Thank goodness I held my Sears! 

ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2018, 07:14:15 pm »

Thank goodness I held my Sears! 
Yes, request the actual stock certificates, they'll be good to burn this cold winter. I still use my Blockbuster and Enron certs to get the logs rolling, cheaper than the gas starter.

vandybuff

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2018, 08:35:23 pm »

Yes, request the actual stock certificates, they'll be good to burn this cold winter. I still use my Blockbuster and Enron certs to get the logs rolling, cheaper than the gas starter.

Hahahaha!!!! Sears is 'one of the few' falling knives that I did not try to catch with my foot! 
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2018, 09:36:21 pm »

Well after a pretty decent rally today look out below, at least on tomorrow's opening. Both Amazon and Alphabet reported some disappointing quarterly numbers after the market closed this afternoon. With the markets in such an ugly mood there is NO room for error, disappointment or caution from virtually any firm, particularly those of such a wide following and visibility as these two.  At least in the short run it appears that higher expenses and/or growing competition when it comes to both are having some dampening impact on numbers.
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HawgWild

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2018, 11:38:06 am »

What exactly is the guy from Bloomberg saying here? TIA

Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Carl Riccadonna said following the report that, “The composition of growth in the third quarter has some important implications. The economy has reverted back to the `same old’ model of consumers accounting for most of the growth. Supply-siders will be disappointed to see business fixed investment essentially stalling out after a robust first half.”

In Riccadonna’s view, unless there are more tax or another change in fiscal policy, growth in the second and third quarter’s appears to be boosted by a “sugar high” from tax cuts rather than creating a new path for economic growth.

Ian Shepherson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said of Friday’s report, “In one line: Strong GDP growth hides soft capex and massive trade deterioration.”
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2018, 11:51:59 am »

What exactly is the guy from Bloomberg saying here? TIA

Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Carl Riccadonna said following the report that, “The composition of growth in the third quarter has some important implications. The economy has reverted back to the `same old’ model of consumers accounting for most of the growth. Supply-siders will be disappointed to see business fixed investment essentially stalling out after a robust first half.”

In Riccadonna’s view, unless there are more tax or another change in fiscal policy, growth in the second and third quarter’s appears to be boosted by a “sugar high” from tax cuts rather than creating a new path for economic growth.

Ian Shepherson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said of Friday’s report, “In one line: Strong GDP growth hides soft capex and massive trade deterioration.”

Well, to me he is saying that the tax cuts provided the impetus for the 2nd and 3rd quarter GDP results, and that we'll have to rely on the consumer to maintain these type of results, which apparently he doesn't think is doable. I don't really know, lol. My oldest is a CFA , I rely on him for all the drill down in the mumbo jumbo when Economists talk.

HotlantaHog

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2018, 01:38:30 pm »

Well, to me he is saying that the tax cuts provided the impetus for the 2nd and 3rd quarter GDP results, and that we'll have to rely on the consumer to maintain these type of results, which apparently he doesn't think is doable. I don't really know, lol. My oldest is a CFA , I rely on him for all the drill down in the mumbo jumbo when Economists talk.
Consumer spending rose 4% in the past quarter vs. 0.8% for nonresidential business investment.

That's great so long as consumers can continue to boost spending -- 4% growth is probably unsustainably strong. There has been hope that the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul would bring about an investment boom that would bolster productivity. Maybe that will happen eventually, but it didn't happen last quarter, so that is a concern.

The headline number of a 3.5% gain was very strong, but there are some concerns in the details.

Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2018, 01:42:53 pm »

What exactly is the guy from Bloomberg saying here? TIA

Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Carl Riccadonna said following the report that, “The composition of growth in the third quarter has some important implications. The economy has reverted back to the `same old’ model of consumers accounting for most of the growth. Supply-siders will be disappointed to see business fixed investment essentially stalling out after a robust first half.”

In Riccadonna’s view, unless there are more tax or another change in fiscal policy, growth in the second and third quarter’s appears to be boosted by a “sugar high” from tax cuts rather than creating a new path for economic growth.

Ian Shepherson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said of Friday’s report, “In one line: Strong GDP growth hides soft capex and massive trade deterioration.”
Well I got news for some of these talking heads who act is if they actually know something about economics: the consumer has for a number of years accounted for the majority of American economic activity-typically in the 60%-65% area. As for GDP growth going forward I suspect we will begin to see a reversion back toward the mean-more in the 2% to 2.5% area-over the next several quarters. The tax cuts which came in during the first quarter or so of the year will so be "lapped" and the major "juice" we got from such will be fading as we go forward. Much also depends on what happens overseas. Does China, the world's second economy, continue to slow? How about some place we often lose sight of: Europe (especially Germany) where growth has most certainly been slowing of late. All-in-all while the U.S. economic data may hold up for a while longer, I suspect we will see a noticeable slowing in most of the data as we get into '19. Whether or not that actually portends an eventual recession later next year or early 2020 is still very much open to debate.

Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2018, 02:36:31 pm »

What exactly is the guy from Bloomberg saying here? TIA

Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Carl Riccadonna said following the report that, “The composition of growth in the third quarter has some important implications. The economy has reverted back to the `same old’ model of consumers accounting for most of the growth. Supply-siders will be disappointed to see business fixed investment essentially stalling out after a robust first half.”

In Riccadonna’s view, unless there are more tax or another change in fiscal policy, growth in the second and third quarter’s appears to be boosted by a “sugar high” from tax cuts rather than creating a new path for economic growth.

Ian Shepherson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said of Friday’s report, “In one line: Strong GDP growth hides soft capex and massive trade deterioration.”

I tend to have the same opinion as Riccadonna. The supply side theory basically follows the mindset that by lowering taxes on corporations, the government will stimulate investment in industry, raise production, which should then bring down prices, which should then control inflation.

In my opinion, the supply side theory puts too much assumption into the corporate tax savings getting put into raising production (which then should lower prices and control inflation). Said differently, supply side theory is based on a little too much perfection and for that reason, generates results that then require another stimulus to keep the momentum going. At some point, you run out of stimulative options and have no where to go but down.

So, then we are "left with" the same old consumer driven growth of 1 - 2.5ish%.

In regards to Shepherson's comments, I also agree with him.  The administration has been accelerating GDP while we have moved from the peak to late periods in the business cycle.  It's a little bit like using Keynesian tactics and strategies (which was most famously used to increase debt and spend our way out of the Great Depression) in what had been a synchronized global growth environment.

The hope of this strategy is that you lengthen the peak to late periods in the business cycle. Theoretically, this strategy may even briefly drive a movement backwards in the business cycle. In my opinion though, things tend to normalize back to relative equilibrium. So, artificially inflating tends to lead to more aggressive deflating at some point.

Okay, back off my soapbox and back to Shepherson's take. What happens when you keep trying to inflate GDP towards a target of say, 4-5% and simultaneously start a trade war during a point in the business cycle when corporations (who operationally have much clearer visibility of economic conditions) are seeing things slow or in business cycle terms, mature at a faster pace? To Shepherson, GDP (Yay 4-5%) can be a 40,000 ft view data point that blinds you to what is really happening on the ground (soft capex, trade deterioration, more aggressively maturing business cycle, etc.).

In the end, you are again "left with" consumers accounting for the same old, same old 1 - 2.5ish% GDP growth.


« Last Edit: October 26, 2018, 02:48:28 pm by Boardon Hamsay »
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HawgWild

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2018, 02:51:35 pm »

Thanks for the comments guys. I'd also read that consumer borrowing is up. With rising interest rates is that a bad thing?
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HotlantaHog

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2018, 03:01:06 pm »

Thanks for the comments guys. I'd also read that consumer borrowing is up. With rising interest rates is that a bad thing?
It's not particularly problematic. Savings rate for Americans is about 6.6 percent of income, which is decent (it's been very low at some points.) It all depends on individuals' balance sheet and ability to repay loans, plus what they are borrowing for -- an investment like higher education or a new home makes sense most of the time.

Overall, I would be more worried about the U.S. government's borrowing.
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vandybuff

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2018, 03:05:06 pm »

Thanks for the comments guys. I'd also read that consumer borrowing is up. With rising interest rates is that a bad thing?
Yes.  If you assume that some consumer debt is at a variable rate ... and / or ... they will continue to borrow, that leaves less for the individual to spend.  People more intelligent than me could type on for hours, but higher interest rates equals the "UPM,UGLLO" principle ---- U pay more, U got less left over.
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HawgWild

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2018, 05:00:20 pm »

So, if consumers are driving spending growth and rates are rising, then it makes sense that it could cool off to the "1 - 2.5ish%" range. Lots of volatility out there and I'm trying to figure out if I need to do anything.
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2018, 05:08:23 pm »

So, if consumers are driving spending growth and rates are rising, then it makes sense that it could cool off to the "1 - 2.5ish%" range. Lots of volatility out there and I'm trying to figure out if I need to do anything.

I think a lot of economists and market people had already factored in a growth rate much closer to 2.5% than 3.5-4%. I know I get an email from Stephens economist weekly and they didn't see it growing at the current rate. Like my son told me today, valuations have pulled back enough now to reflect this lower growth.
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galactivation

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2018, 05:12:22 pm »

I'm down 43k this month in my Raymond James account. It hurts, it will probably continue to hurt, but I'm in it for the Long haul. I just got a bit more liquid & may try to throw some more money at a further correction
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galactivation

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2018, 05:12:53 pm »

No panic selling here
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2018, 05:26:08 pm »

Truly gotten crazy out there for sure. Heck, the great "cure all" passive investment strategies such as ETFs have gotten to a point where many are trading at 7-15% BELOW their net asset values. I.E. many are trading for 85-93 cents for every $1.00 of actual market value for the underlying shares of the portfolio. While discounts can exist even in great markets, when some of these funds are sliding as much (or more) as many of the individual stocks that make up the entire holdings then the "I don't have to risk trying to pick out individual holdings, I'll let someone else do that for me" idea kinda goes out the window. Moral of the story: there are NO riskless investments when dealing in the stock market. Merely trying to "dodge" such a possibility no matter the method is a fool's game. IF you can't stand the risk then don't be playing in (the Wall) Street.
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Dumb ole famrboy

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2018, 07:24:55 am »

This is kinda a way out there thought but could China be making a small divestment from funds to tip a selling situation in the markets as a Trade War tactic?
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2018, 08:38:35 am »

This is kinda a way out there thought but could China be making a small divestment from funds to tip a selling situation in the markets as a Trade War tactic?
Suppose anything's possible with those snakes; however, that would be far more likely to try that in the U.S Treasury market where they have a MASSIVE holding. In fact, there's evidence that over the past few months they've been lightening up on our debt holdings. One reason we saw a dip in Treasury prices recently. While some would claim that to purposely drive down the price of such by unloading a huge amount would actually HURT them as well, after all they'd take less for the securities they were dumping, one thing all of us have to remember is the Chinese have a very well defined and thought out LONG term end game/game plan and outlook. They're most certainly willing to endure some short term pain in order to achieve a long term gain (hurting the U.S.). With their Communist Party based economy they don't have to really worry all that much with pleasing the average Chinese consumer/voter who won't be deciding who holds office over there anyway.


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HotlantaHog

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2018, 10:45:06 am »

I think a lot of economists and market people had already factored in a growth rate much closer to 2.5% than 3.5-4%. I know I get an email from Stephens economist weekly and they didn't see it growing at the current rate. Like my son told me today, valuations have pulled back enough now to reflect this lower growth.
The Fed and most other forecasters put the U.S. long term growth rate at 1.8-2%. That is, GDP growth long term is coming from labor force growth of about 0.5% annually and productivity growth of about 1-1.5% annually.

To get faster growth you need either faster labor force growth or faster productivity growth. Labor force growth is slowing because of the retirement of the baby boomers. There is also not much immigration, which would boost labor force growth. Productivity growth has been slowing since 2000 too, and the reasons are much debated. It ramped up with the adoption of PCs and the Internet,  has cooled off over the last decade to decade and a half. Some people believe the ``second machine age'' -- artificial intelligence and machine learning -- will bring a second wave of productivity improvements. Others are very skeptical of that. We'll see.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #29 on: October 28, 2018, 12:27:02 pm »

The Fed and most other forecasters put the U.S. long term growth rate at 1.8-2%. That is, GDP growth long term is coming from labor force growth of about 0.5% annually and productivity growth of about 1-1.5% annually.

To get faster growth you need either faster labor force growth or faster productivity growth. Labor force growth is slowing because of the retirement of the baby boomers. There is also not much immigration, which would boost labor force growth. Productivity growth has been slowing since 2000 too, and the reasons are much debated. It ramped up with the adoption of PCs and the Internet,  has cooled off over the last decade to decade and a half. Some people believe the ``second machine age'' -- artificial intelligence and machine learning -- will bring a second wave of productivity improvements. Others are very skeptical of that. We'll see.
Kudos, some very good points. Yep, the hope that the GDP is likely to continue growing at the (historically) high levels we've seen of late is pretty much "pie in the sky". And while I realize the Fed's mandate is to balance the levels of "full employment" while keeping in check long term inflation, and WITHOUT inference from the administration of other political sources, the extremely hawkish comments of late by many of the Fed governors may end up being just that-way too hawkish. The next few months of economic data will be critical in determining whether or not we see as many as four rates hikes in '19 after one expected in December of this year. If housing continues to trend down, the consumer possibly starts pulling in his/her "horns" and overall manufacturing data slows then the folks who set monetary policy will likely have to rethink.
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HotlantaHog

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2018, 12:37:40 pm »

The Fed is projecting one additional hike in 2018 and three in 2019 -- it's doubtful whether we will get that many in 2019.

If the economy and inflation show signs of significant cooling in the first half, more than likely we would end up with one or two hikes next year and a pause to assess things.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2018, 05:32:59 pm »

The Fed is projecting one additional hike in 2018 and three in 2019 -- it's doubtful whether we will get that many in 2019.

If the economy and inflation show signs of significant cooling in the first half, more than likely we would end up with one or two hikes next year and a pause to assess things.
Well according to Powell it will all be based on the various economic indicators (as it should be). However, what I do find interesting that as late several of the previously more hawkish Fed governors have begun to coo more like doves of late. We're also getting some economists who were more favorable for more tightening also beginning to back off.

Personally I think we still get the hike in December, assuming that next data points don't just fall apart; sometime in early '19 we likely get another. How many after that is anyone's guess. I also have a feeling the Fed's trying to raise rates sufficiently to be able to back off more aggressively whenever the next recession finally shows up.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2018, 05:42:30 pm »

Since my last post (above) I've heard several observations concerning Powell's/Fed's "damn the torpedos" attitude toward rising rates. The discourse goes something like: "Interesting how these folks at the Fed can make blanket statements concerning how many more rate hikes we'll likely see between now and the end of '19. Heck, obviously a LOT can change between now and then. Therefore it seems somewhat irresponsible to make such assumptions and therefore influence the markets".

One can draw his/her own conclusions. However, when one thinks about it making such pronouncements this far in advance does smack of the Fed living in an "ivory tower" and therefore very possibly being out of touch with economic reality. Then again, IF that were the case it most certainly wouldn't be the first time that folks in Washington are living in a second version "la la land" (after LA of course).
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HotlantaHog

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2018, 11:50:37 am »

Since my last post (above) I've heard several observations concerning Powell's/Fed's "damn the torpedos" attitude toward rising rates. The discourse goes something like: "Interesting how these folks at the Fed can make blanket statements concerning how many more rate hikes we'll likely see between now and the end of '19. Heck, obviously a LOT can change between now and then. Therefore it seems somewhat irresponsible to make such assumptions and therefore influence the markets".

One can draw his/her own conclusions. However, when one thinks about it making such pronouncements this far in advance does smack of the Fed living in an "ivory tower" and therefore very possibly being out of touch with economic reality. Then again, IF that were the case it most certainly wouldn't be the first time that folks in Washington are living in a second version "la la land" (after LA of course).
They don't make pronouncements. They release a Summary of Economic Projections four times a year that includes the FOMC participants' (19 when all positions are filled) forecasts for GDP, inflation, unemployment and the target interest rate for the next three years. Policy is based in part on forecasts, so they release the forecasts to be helpful.... They could choose not to release them, but they release them as a matter of transparency. They stress that the forecasts are data dependent -- that is, they are not locked in and they will likely change. Wall Street appreciates getting an understanding of what the Fed is projecting.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2018, 01:08:24 pm »

They don't make pronouncements. They release a Summary of Economic Projections four times a year that includes the FOMC participants' (19 when all positions are filled) forecasts for GDP, inflation, unemployment and the target interest rate for the next three years. Policy is based in part on forecasts, so they release the forecasts to be helpful.... They could choose not to release them, but they release them as a matter of transparency. They stress that the forecasts are data dependent -- that is, they are not locked in and they will likely change. Wall Street appreciates getting an understanding of what the Fed is projecting.
Yes, they do make forecasts; however, while the rates may be data dependent, there has been a lot of talk from the FED as to how many changes in rates they expect over time. Duh.........IF the FED really uses the data to make their decisions then they should remain mum on how many, if any, hikes they expect. After all, do they really have an unerring crystal ball as to how the economy will be doing out three or four quarters from now? I seriously doubt it; again, far too many variables-trade, inflation, employment, the dollar, etc.-to be able to make such longer range pronouncements. With that in mind Powell and others are talking out of both sides of their mouths: on the one hand saying it will be entirely data dependent; on the other, saying they expect to raise rates X number of times over the next year. Sorry, typical Washington "double speak" and that's a fact!!!!
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2018, 06:12:36 pm »

Goes without saying the market's rally of the past several days has been a major relief to those shell shocked investors who were caught totally unprepared for the October sell off. And while I seriously doubt any of us, except those "short" either the market indexes and/or individual stocks, were having fun at least for the time being it was a relief to see the markets not continually being hammered day after day.

Well tomorrow's market performance could be interesting. The after hours results report from one of the market's "big dogs"-Apple (APPL)-was NOT what this market needed to see; therefore the performance of tomorrow's market very well may be truly UUUGGGGLLLLYYYY, at least one the opening. With an already skittish and nervous economic and earnings background the maker of iPads, iWatches, iPhones, etc. reported some very cautious guidance for the upcoming holiday season. Keep in mind that like many companies, the last month of the calendar year is typically an important one for Apple. The cautionary remarks seemed to be centered around a slowing China (particularly as it applies to the iPhone and Apple Store apps), the possibly bottle neck in production and distribution of the recently released iPhone X (some component shortages noted) and the stronger $ that is most certainly impacting the overall price of Apple product overseas sales.

While the just completed quarter seemed to be generally fine when it came to earnings, revenues, margins and overall sales, it's the FUTURE outlook that will very likely dominate the stock's price for the time being. Keep in mind that in a market environment when many company's stock is being "taken out an shot" even with the best of earnings, sales, etc., IF a company disappointments in any way, shape, or form it will NOT be a sight for the faint of heart to watch.

Currently there are after market trades that have been done around the $209 area. That compares to the closing price of AAPL of $222.22 (up $3.36 today). This would indicate a POSSIBLE drop of perhaps 5.8% or more tomorrow morning on the open. If one extrapolates this into Dow Jones points that's a drop of around 110.00. So...buckle the chin straps and hold on tight. I suspect what happens to both AAPL AND the overall market's reaction....both from Dow, S and P and NASDAQ...will be interesting over the entire trading on Friday. IF the overall market holds up relatively well even in light of what might transpire with Apple then perhaps the lows we saw earlier this week in the various indexes MAY market at least an overall low for the timbering. However, don't be totally shocked if one or more of the indexes fall back off to possibly challenge the recent lows. I suspect that many of the technology stocks could get hit again. Then again, who the heck really knows until it actually happens.

These truly are some interesting, even gut-wrenching, times in which we live. May we just learn to appreciate each moment even more.
 
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snoblind

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2018, 04:12:38 pm »

Curious if anyone follows Sjuggerud/True Wealth at Stansberry research?
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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2018, 10:06:01 pm »

There's some wicked volatility in the Canadian marijuana etf MJ. Went legal there Oct. 17, went from 25 to 45 on the rumor, sold hard on the news down to 28. Options are very expensive. The business seems like a sure thing. I guess the companies themselves are new and small and don't have profits yet. It's come back up to 34 since then. I like it's chances to go back over 40.

Also, I'm expecting a drop in our markets this week if dems take the house. Might be a tradeable bottom.
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HawgWild

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2018, 05:01:05 pm »

Also, I'm expecting a drop in our markets this week if dems take the house. Might be a tradeable bottom.

The Dow closed up 173+ today. What's that say?
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2018, 05:44:13 pm »

The Dow closed up 173+ today. What's that say?

Buy the rumor, sell the fact? You would think more gridlock if the Dems win the House, but doesn't that leave status quo on most policies favorable to business? I hope it doesn't tank the markets, my broker is nervous, I think he's afraid I'd put it all in cash, lol.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2018, 06:04:18 pm »

The Dow closed up 173+ today. What's that say?
Not sure it necessarily says anything. Except for the election I didn't really seen any news of great note to move the market today one way or another. What the true "tale of the tape" will be is likely tomorrow and perhaps the day after. Based on whatever election results actually occur will certainly be reflected in the good, bad or indifferent reaction of the markets in the days ahead.

Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2018, 06:08:05 pm »

Buy the rumor, sell the fact? You would think more gridlock if the Dems win the House, but doesn't that leave status quo on most policies favorable to business? I hope it doesn't tank the markets, my broker is nervous, I think he's afraid I'd put it all in cash, lol.
I think MOST pundits believe at least one side of Congress-most likely the House-will swing toward the Dems. and if that's the case markets could likely learn to live with it. However, those same "sages" seem to think that if BOTH sides of Congress swing toward the Democrats then there could be hell to pay as this would really put a crimp in Trump's pro business agenda.
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twistitup

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2018, 06:12:55 pm »

Buy the rumor, sell the fact? You would think more gridlock if the Dems win the House, but doesn't that leave status quo on most policies favorable to business? I hope it doesn't tank the markets, my broker is nervous, I think he's afraid I'd put it all in cash, lol.

If you decide to go all cash....I have a good investment for you Rice- trust me on this one. I know the lobster deal didn't turn out as planned, and the catfish contract never got signed by the UofA (thanks hunter) BUT....I've got a once in a lifetime deal in front of me at the moment - all I need is you to make it happen.

It's not food this time, we are going beverage ol Rice! People have to drink! Think about it, if you don't have liquids...you die - it's a need not a want, it also a safe investment

Pm me
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sevenof400

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2018, 06:37:46 pm »

If you decide to go all cash....I have a good investment for you Rice- trust me on this one. I know the lobster deal didn't turn out as planned, and the catfish contract never got signed by the UofA (thanks hunter) BUT....I've got a once in a lifetime deal in front of me at the moment - all I need is you to make it happen.

It's not food this time, we are going beverage ol Rice! People have to drink! Think about it, if you don't have liquids...you die - it's a need not a want, it also a safe investment

Pm me

Sake!
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ricepig

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2018, 07:55:41 pm »

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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #45 on: November 07, 2018, 09:06:33 am »

The Dow closed up 173+ today. What's that say?
Maybe that wall street's ok with divided congress because they don't think tax cuts are going away. Also not worried about the house committees investigating Trump or increased protection of Mueller.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #46 on: November 07, 2018, 11:47:47 am »

Maybe that wall street's ok with divided congress because they don't think tax cuts are going away. Also not worried about the house committees investigating Trump or increased protection of Mueller.
IMO part of the rally today can be attributed to a "relief" response to the election finally being over. While for many the outcome only opens up new questions regarding the future when it comes to the economy, politics and other issues, at least there is some greatly clarity as to the make up of Congress over the next couple of years. There is a truism about markets: they can most definitely take good news, and will eventually learn to adjust to bad; however, what it tends to hate most is uncertainty.
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BENTON PIGGEE

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #47 on: November 07, 2018, 02:08:09 pm »

There's some wicked volatility in the Canadian marijuana etf MJ. Went legal there Oct. 17, went from 25 to 45 on the rumor, sold hard on the news down to 28. Options are very expensive. The business seems like a sure thing. I guess the companies themselves are new and small and don't have profits yet. It's come back up to 34 since then. I like it's chances to go back over 40.

Also, I'm expecting a drop in our markets this week if dems take the house. Might be a tradeable bottom.
AG Jeff Sessions, a Yuge opponent of legalizing MJ, just "resigned". MJ etf is up 6% today and almost 30% since last Tuesday. Now at $36.50.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Markets.......
« Reply #48 on: November 08, 2018, 07:45:23 pm »

IMO part of the rally today can be attributed to a "relief" response to the election finally being over. While for many the outcome only opens up new questions regarding the future when it comes to the economy, politics and other issues, at least there is some greatly clarity as to the make up of Congress over the next couple of years. There is a truism about markets: they can most definitely take good news, and will eventually learn to adjust to bad; however, what it tends to hate most is uncertainty.

Yep. Pre election uncertainty is out of the way so we had a great rally. Today was a little more muted due to hand sitting in anticipation of the afternoon Fed update. Earnings season is on the back nine which actually may be a good thing given the guidance based and priced for perfection selling pressure. 

Next thing to get through is the G20 where maybe there’s a development on trade/tariffs/China. I think resolution there is worth +8%-10% on the S&P if done in the next 6 months or so but it seems that we are going to let that linger longer. Depending on how things continue to slow globally, the rally from trade resolution may have diminishing potential.

Then there’s oil. Sweet hell, oil I think may just be getting started on the way down. Funny, natural gas prices and a hope for cold winter now may be the only positive for the energy sector.
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twistitup

Re: Markets.......
« Reply #49 on: November 08, 2018, 07:51:31 pm »

AG Jeff Sessions, a Yuge opponent of legalizing MJ, just "resigned". MJ etf is up 6% today and almost 30% since last Tuesday. Now at $36.50.

time for a session?
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