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Author Topic: I think we are going to be good!  (Read 6428 times)

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little pigee

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I think we are going to be good!
« on: August 07, 2018, 09:21:41 pm »

There are historical instances that support my theory!
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2018, 09:35:28 pm »

Look it up and and berate me if you can, naysayer.

Okay.

Last 60 years: 10 first year head coaches

Record of those coaches: 55-56

Average wins per season for those coaches: 5.5

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Dan42AR

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2018, 09:47:48 pm »

Okay.

Last 60 years: 10 first year head coaches

Record of those coaches: 55-56

Average wins per season for those coaches: 5.5

Wow just going on memory and I could be wrong. Of those 10 1st year coaches 6 had losing seasons, 3 had winning seasons. Holtz, Hatfield and Nutt. We are about to find out on the 10th coach soon. I still think we will do pretty good this year but it does make you think.
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TheRazorback500

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2018, 10:21:54 pm »

Past history has no bearing on how good this year's team is going to be.

Fan1958

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2018, 10:28:38 pm »

Past history has no bearing on how good this year's team is going to be.

You are correct but the OP cites "historical instances" and Ryan simply provides historical facts. Now I admit I am inferring your post is in response to the first year records.

widespreadsooie

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2018, 10:32:00 pm »

Past history has no bearing on how good this year's team is going to be.

It doesn't, but history tends to lay out patterns in college football. Not sure it applies here but I appreciate his optimism.
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PonderinHog

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2018, 10:35:42 pm »

We can be good and still have a 5-7 or 6-6 record.

Bash

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2018, 10:39:35 pm »

Past history has no bearing on how good this year's team is going to be.

Point taken, but in recent history, we've had Bielema for the past 5 years.  It think that might have some bearing on how good this year's team is going to be.

TheRazorback500

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2018, 10:56:55 pm »

You are correct but the OP cites "historical instances" and Ryan simply provides historical facts. Now I admit I am inferring your post is in response to the first year records.
No, just a general reflection on a new season. The records he mentioned are definitely in line with the general consensus of 5-6 wins this year.
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InHognito

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2018, 11:13:16 pm »

Unlikely. Our offensive line is in shambles and is shaping up to be average at best. Injuries haven't helped. Couple that with a new system and we're staring down the barrel of a 4 or 5 win season.

I think reaching a bowl would be a huge achievement for this team and staff. Hope they can

PigPusher

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2018, 11:53:31 pm »

There are historical instances that support my theory!

I follow you as to historical precedent for the team having a banner year.  Down through our history good years after a coaching change do happen. With our coaching quality and player enthusiasm it could very well be a solid year. In any event it will be fun to watch.

LRRandy

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2018, 02:18:06 am »

A sure sign the calendar has turned to August.

LZH

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2018, 03:33:44 am »

We can be good and still have a 5-7 or 6-6 record.

Fake news! Alma Sonic at sundown, buddy!   >:(
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Pork Twain

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2018, 03:59:48 am »

There are historical instances that support my theory!
I have been saying all along, this is Ford to HDN.  There is a ton of talent and now we have a coach with fire.

MissippHog

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2018, 07:22:01 am »

I have been saying all along, this is Ford to HDN.  There is a ton of talent and now we have a coach with fire.
But is his piss hot?
My optimism has waned a bit, especially with Malone's injury.  It's the one position where we can't afford injuries, yet here we are.  My hope is the Coach can scheme around our biggest weakness on the team.
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rhames

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2018, 07:42:13 am »

I have been saying all along, this is Ford to HDN.  There is a ton of talent and now we have a coach with fire.


A ton of talent?

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GuvHog

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2018, 08:02:44 am »

Unlikely. Our offensive line is in shambles and is shaping up to be average at best. Injuries haven't helped. Couple that with a new system and we're staring down the barrel of a 4 or 5 win season.

I think reaching a bowl would be a huge achievement for this team and staff. Hope they can

I disagree with your assertion that the Offensive line is in shambles. I don't believe that's the case. Are their depth issues and problems caused by injuries? Yes. Of the 5 projected to start, only one is injured and will miss a few games. Losing Malone hurts the depth but he was not going to be a starter.
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rhames

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2018, 08:07:33 am »

I disagree with your assertion that the Offensive line is in shambles. I don't believe that's the case. Are their depth issues and problems caused by injuries? Yes. Of the 5 projected to start, only one is injured and will miss a few games. Losing Malone hurts the depth but he was not going to be a starter.


Isn't Jackson supposed to miss at least 6 games?
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2018, 08:19:03 am »

It's going to hinge on the O-Line at this point.  If the starters can remain healthy, then we'll have a good shot at 6-7 wins.  If they can't, then we're going to struggle, and it could dip as low as 4.  Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I think the defense will be improved just based on the guys we have coming back having experience, with some Chavis changes sprinkled in.   

O-line the area where we were most depleted with CCM coming in, and recruiting didn't really address it well, and even if it had, expecting talented enough kids to commit that late and get on the field as Fr. and succeed....Dumb and Dumber type odds at best. 

I'm just hoping we have at least 2-3 solid backups, and we stay healthy from here out.  Beyond that...we'll just have to set up in shotgun, make quick reads, and hope we have some quick WR's and RB's that can do well in space! 

toddfromdesarc

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2018, 08:29:15 am »

Astute analysis. On the flip side I think we are going to be pretty ok!

RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2018, 08:29:57 am »

Wow just going on memory and I could be wrong. Of those 10 1st year coaches 6 had losing seasons, 3 had winning seasons. Holtz, Hatfield and Nutt. We are about to find out on the 10th coach soon. I still think we will do pretty good this year but it does make you think.

You’re exactly right.

Holtz, Hatfield, Nutt had winning seasons.
Broyles, Crowe, Kines, Ford, Petrino, John L., Bielema all had losing seasons.

As I said earlier, the average wins by those guys in their first year was 5.5. If Morris does just that, wins 5-6, I’d be pretty excited for what’s to come.
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a0ashle

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2018, 08:35:47 am »

It will take a minor miracle to win 5 games.

That’s too bearish in my opinion. 5 wins is still pretty probable, it’s each win north of 5 that starts getting harder to get. 7-8 is “minor miracle” territory, to use your terminology.
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hogsanity

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2018, 08:43:05 am »

The OP never defined good. His idea of good may be 4-8 but close in every loss. Or it may be 15-0. HE left himself lots of wiggle room.
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LRrazorback

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2018, 08:54:41 am »

I have been saying all along, this is Ford to HDN.  There is a ton of talent and now we have a coach with fire.

Im not understanding “ton of talent”.  Please help me. This is a team that’s only won 11 games the past two years.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2018, 08:59:12 am »

Im not understanding “ton of talent”.  Please help me. This is a team that’s only won 11 games the past two years.

I don't really understand it either, and you see that phrase thrown around a lot here.

Talent relevant to what?

Our last 3 recruiting classes average a ranking of 11 in the SEC on 247Sports. In that case, if you put any stock into recruiting rankings, the talent relevant to our main opponents isn't very good.

Talent development?

If we have a ton of talent now, that must mean that Bielema and Co. developed a lot of these players to overcome that recruiting ranking. Does anyone really believe that's the case?

I'm not saying we don't have talent on this team. I just don't understand what posters mean when they say we have a lot of it. Again, we have a lot of talent compared to what? Relevant to what?

Now, based on Morris' class thus far, yeah I'd 100% say we're on a great path to getting the talent we need. Paired with the kinda coach we believe him to be, I think it'll be pretty great. But right this moment? I'm not so convinced.

factchecker

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #25 on: August 08, 2018, 09:01:17 am »

Im not understanding “ton of talent”.  Please help me. This is a team that’s only won 11 games the past two years.

We won 8 games in Danny Ford's last two seasons before Nutt came in and capitalized on the leftover talent.

That is why he probably posted this:

I have been saying all along, this is Ford to HDN.
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AugustaHog

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #26 on: August 08, 2018, 09:02:11 am »

Im not understanding “ton of talent”.  Please help me. This is a team that’s only won 11 games the past two years.
I think there was a bit of exaggeration there for sure.  I think there is more there than what they showed in '17.  I think the starters and some of the 2nd stringers have some ability.  I would hesitate to say a ton mostly because we are as deep as a puddle at this point.  I would expect better results now that they are in good shape and have a coach that seems to have leadership abilities.

Wildhog

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #27 on: August 08, 2018, 09:02:14 am »

I can see us sneaking into a bowl game, if that's what he meant by "good."
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #28 on: August 08, 2018, 09:03:28 am »

I think there was a bit of exaggeration there for sure.  I think there is more there than what they showed in '17.  I think the starters and some of the 2nd stringers have some ability.  I would hesitate to say a ton mostly because we are as deep as a puddle at this point.  I would expect better results now that they are in good shape and have a coach that seems to have leadership abilities.

Yes. This I agree with.
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #29 on: August 08, 2018, 09:04:09 am »

Im not understanding “ton of talent”.  Please help me. This is a team that’s only won 11 games the past two years.

There's always a "ton of untapped talent" when the coach is terrible.  I thought everyone knew that.   ;)

factchecker

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #30 on: August 08, 2018, 09:10:38 am »

I don't really understand it either, and you see that phrase thrown around a lot here.

Talent relevant to what?

Our last 3 recruiting classes average a ranking of 11 in the SEC on 247Sports. In that case, if you put any stock into recruiting rankings, the talent relevant to our main opponents isn't very good.

Talent development?

If we have a ton of talent now, that must mean that Bielema and Co. developed a lot of these players to overcome that recruiting ranking. Does anyone really believe that's the case?

I'm not saying we don't have talent on this team. I just don't understand what posters mean when they say we have a lot of it. Again, we have a lot of talent compared to what? Relevant to what?

Now, based on Morris' class thus far, yeah I'd 100% say we're getting the talent we need. Paired with the kinda coach we believe him to be, I think it'll be pretty great. But right this moment? I'm not so convinced.
If you are basing our ability to succeed on SEC recruiting rankings then we will NEVER have a good season and any good season we've had has been a fluke.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/90jkrh/every_sec_coachs_247_average_recruiting_rankings/

Quote
Every SEC Coach's 247 Average Recruiting Rankings, 2003-2018


Arkansas   Average Ranking   SEC Rank   National Rank
Nutt               0.8326                      8                28.8
Petrino           0.8559                     11               24.6
Bielema        0.8600                       10               24.8
Morris            0.8612                     14                48

*Morris' average is based on one recruiting cycle coming off Bielema's firing and early signing day.  We are trending much better now.

**Nutt and Petrino's SEC rank is out of 12 teams .  Mizzou and AnM had not made the jump to the SEC yet.

***Bielema and every coach following will be ranked out of 14 SEC teams.

RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #31 on: August 08, 2018, 09:14:01 am »

If you are basing our ability to succeed on SEC recruiting rankings then we will NEVER have a good season and any good season we've had has been a fluke.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/90jkrh/every_sec_coachs_247_average_recruiting_rankings/

*Morris' average is based on one recruiting cycle coming off Bielema's firing and early signing day.  We are trending much better now.

**Nutt and Petrino's SEC rank is out of 12 teams .  Mizzou and AnM had not made the jump to the SEC yet.

***Bielema and every coach following will be ranked out of 14 SEC teams.

I know. That's why I put more stock into a coach than I do into recruiting rankings. And that's why I ended my post with the couple sentences that I did.

Yep, I knew Petrino's recruiting was "worse" than Bielema's, but he still killed it here. I see Morris being very similar to that, but with better classes.

I understand the argument for recruiting rankings equals wins/championships/whatever. My prior post was just playing a little Devil's advocate.

Like I said, I put more stock into the coach than recruiting rankings, which is why I think Morris has some strong potential in the long run. I just don't know how much I agree with the "ton of talent now" statements.
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#hammerdown

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #32 on: August 08, 2018, 09:23:34 am »

Unlikely. Our offensive line is in shambles and is shaping up to be average at best. Injuries haven't helped. Couple that with a new system and we're staring down the barrel of a 4 or 5 win season.

I think reaching a bowl would be a huge achievement for this team and staff. Hope they can

This.  As bad as I hate to believe it.  Just when I was beginning to believe 8 wins were possible our OLine gets the injury bug big time.

I will root them on every game but I am back to believing 6 wins will be a very successful season.

Now, I also believe he is building something special.  If he can hold our commitments through the tough losses this team will be much improved in the coming years.

With that said, we MUST get some quality OLine players or move some DLine guys to the other side.
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AirWarren

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #33 on: August 08, 2018, 09:29:28 am »

I was watching a Washington state game yesterday. I have to imagine, with this type of offense, that we could build something like leach has done with coach Morris. Good grief, if WSU can do it it’s Cali kids, we can do it with Texas kids. Haha.
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rmcchris

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #34 on: August 08, 2018, 09:30:46 am »

Good in this league would equal a 6-6 season.  Just how it is.
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OneTuskOverTheLine™

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #35 on: August 08, 2018, 09:32:24 am »

Past history has no bearing on how good this year's team is going to be.

 This... How many unequivocal facts from the past has this coach already proven falsities?
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toddfromdesarc

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2018, 09:35:22 am »

If you are basing our ability to succeed on SEC recruiting rankings then we will NEVER have a good season and any good season we've had has been a fluke.

I'd say 3 ten win seasons in 26 years means a year like that is probably a fluke.
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Nashville Fan

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #37 on: August 08, 2018, 09:36:24 am »

Historically speaking, the only time in recent history where AR had combined passion and above average talent in a head coach - JFB, Lou Holtz, Bobby Petrino, Ken Hatfield.

You throw in integrity along with Passion and talent, and it's down to JFB, & Ken Hatfield. Some might argue Ken Hatfield's talent; but he won at AR. That can never be denied.

If Coach Morris can end up in this last category, it will be special.
Passion - Check
Integrity - Check (admit it's early but it's hard to fake)
Talent - ? He's shown it in other places. Promising.
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AirWarren

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #38 on: August 08, 2018, 09:37:21 am »

I'd say 3 ten win seasons in 26 years means a year like that is probably a fluke.

We are a middle of the pack team for sure.
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carolinahogger

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #39 on: August 08, 2018, 09:37:58 am »

There are historical instances that support my theory!

Correlation does not imply causation

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In statistics, many statistical tests calculate correlations between variables and when two variables are found to be correlated, it is tempting to assume that this shows that one variable causes the other.[1][2] That "correlation proves causation," is considered a questionable cause logical fallacy when two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship. This fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for "with this, therefore because of this," and "false cause." A similar fallacy, that an event that followed another was necessarily a consequence of the first event, is the post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "after this, therefore because of this.") fallacy.

jkstock04

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #40 on: August 08, 2018, 09:38:39 am »

Past history has no bearing on how good this year's team is going to be.
This is what people were banking on us being good last year...just because it was "supposed" to happen.
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factchecker

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #41 on: August 08, 2018, 09:38:48 am »

Good in this league would equal a 6-6 season.  Just how it is.
The SEC is brutal.  Consider this - according to 247 our current recruiting ranking is 21 which is good for 10th in the SEC.  That is good for 4th in the Big 10 and 3rd in the Big 12.

I'd say 3 ten win seasons in 26 years means a year like that is probably a fluke.

Not a fluke.  A 10 win season in the SEC is great. It's not like we are in the Sun Belt where you can recruit in the 80s and be the best in your conference.
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toddfromdesarc

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #42 on: August 08, 2018, 09:46:25 am »

Not a fluke.  A 10 win season in the SEC is great. It's not like we are in the Sun Belt where you can recruit in the 80s and be the best in your conference.

If you wanna stretch it to 9 win seasons it's still only 6/26. I'd say 23% means it's unlikely, but you're the fact checker.

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Pork Twain

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #43 on: August 08, 2018, 10:04:47 am »


A ton of talent?


Based on Arkansas standards, indeed we do.  People are raving about this class but there have been two very similar classes as far as talent goes, in the last three years.  I am not sure why many are so keen on downplaying our current talent level
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Pork Twain

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #44 on: August 08, 2018, 10:09:00 am »

Im not understanding “ton of talent”.  Please help me. This is a team that’s only won 11 games the past two years.
Was that really because of the level of Arkansas talent or because of the level of coaching.  The classes over the last three years are better than any three that CBP put together.  The right coach, will get the most out of them.  The wrong coach will try to recruit to and practice the power and then execute the pro-style.
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Pork Twain

Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #45 on: August 08, 2018, 10:10:10 am »

If you are basing our ability to succeed on SEC recruiting rankings then we will NEVER have a good season and any good season we've had has been a fluke.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/90jkrh/every_sec_coachs_247_average_recruiting_rankings/

*Morris' average is based on one recruiting cycle coming off Bielema's firing and early signing day.  We are trending much better now.

**Nutt and Petrino's SEC rank is out of 12 teams .  Mizzou and AnM had not made the jump to the SEC yet.

***Bielema and every coach following will be ranked out of 14 SEC teams.
Based on recruiting rankings, no cherry picking here, we have as much talent now, as we have ever had.  Will we ever compete with LSU and Bama for top classes?  No, but in terms of talent we have seen on campus over the last 25 years, what we have now, stacks up well.  I am more than a little surprised at how many are so dead set against this.  Also why I have avoided MMQB
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SPAL

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #46 on: August 08, 2018, 10:15:27 am »

OP.....just a word of advice, don't call out people who disagree with you as naysayers or haters just because they disagree with you.

Honestly, most of the posters here who have reason to think we will struggle to win 4 or 5 games are the ones posting the most logical and relevant posts . Gone are the days you can come on here and flame away because someone disagrees with you.

Deep Shoat

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #47 on: August 08, 2018, 10:17:01 am »

The truth is, not one swinging Richard in this forum has a clue how much talent we have.  The services say Bielema recruited better than anyone before him.  And he retained most of what he recruited.  Therefore, it isn’t unreasonable to thing we have more talent available than most realize.

Doesn’t mean we do.  But it is reasonable to think we might.

toddfromdesarc

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #48 on: August 08, 2018, 10:18:32 am »

The truth is, not one swinging Richard in this forum has a clue how much talent we have.  The services say Bielema recruited better than anyone before him.  And he retained most of what he recruited.  Therefore, it isn’t unreasonable to thing we have more talent available than most realize.

Doesn’t mean we do.  But it is reasonable to think we might.

Then it's also reasonable to think our competition has more talent.
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Deep Shoat

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Re: I think we are going to be good!
« Reply #49 on: August 08, 2018, 10:23:25 am »

Then it's also reasonable to think our competition has more talent.
Of which, on average, they have retained less of.  Therefore, ours should be more mature, physically, and able to compete if coached appropriately. 

We obviously home CCM and staff coach at a high level.
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