Hogville Info
• 9,823,401 Posts
• 396,405 Topics
• 22,588 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Listen NOW:Game ON 103.3 
  
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Great article on "big plays" in college football (Bill Conners)  (Read 480 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 283
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 41,258
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!

I thought this was a great article, though from August of last year. It's very relevant. Making big plays versus allowing big plays. As he states, "duh", it's important.

But from an "advanced stats" basis, what is truly important? It gets back to basics.

Big plays are probably the single most important factor to winning football games. The team more adept at creating numbers advantages and getting a guy into the open field, or the team that can simply outman its opponent and win one-on-one battles will almost certainly generate more big plays and win more games.

Nothing is more demoralizing than giving up a 20-play, 80-yard, nine-minute drive. But unless your team is Navy, that doesn't happen too often. Defensive coaches often teach their squads the concept of leverage — prevent the ball-carrier from getting the outside lane, steer him to the middle, make the tackle, and live to play another down. It is the bend-don't-break style of defense, and it often works because if you give the offense enough opportunities, they might eventually make a drive-killing mistake, especially at the collegiate level. If you allow them 40 yards in one play, their likelihood of making a drive-killing mistake plummets.

All of this is still basically true. But it goes back to interesting vs. useful. Every coach knows you should make more big plays than your opponent, just as every coach knows you could commit fewer turnovers than them, too. How?

If big plays can happen on any down, at a reasonably similar rate, then tell me where I’m wrong in saying this: The key to explosiveness is efficiency. The key to making big plays is being able to stay on the field long enough to make one.


How do you see the aggressive nature of the Morris offense and the aggressive nature of the Chavis defense affecting our outcomes when it comes to "big plays" in this first year?

Much more inside the article.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2017/8/22/16075050/college-football-big-plays-efficiency-five-factors
Logged

Ethan2010

Re: Great article on "big plays" in college football (Bill Conners)
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2018, 01:16:52 am »

This makes a lot of sense. Just think of all the times under the previous regime where we would have slow methodical marches down the field end in a punt or no points because the drive stalled out.
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 283
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 41,258
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Great article on "big plays" in college football (Bill Conners)
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2018, 06:32:58 pm »

This makes a lot of sense. Just think of all the times under the previous regime where we would have slow methodical marches down the field end in a punt or no points because the drive stalled out.

Glad you responded and thanks for the post. As I said above, it seems to get back to basics.

And yes, the longer a drive seems to take, the greater the probability of a mistake, except for those who consistently demonstrate efficiency in the way that they conduct their drives. On the other hand, the same can be said of a defense who consistently denies the truly "big play" to an opposing offense and forces them to have to move the ball in chunks of 3-4 yards at a time. That makes the probability of extending a drive much less likely than what is written about in this article.

Success rate, which defines every play as a success or non-success based on the following criteria: gaining 50 percent of your necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down. I have always viewed it as an on-base percentage for football, more or less.

Points Per Play (PPP), which is based on the equivalent point values each play produces. Every yard line can be given an expected point value — as in, if you’re on your own 10, you can expect to score X.X points per possession on average (there are many ways of deriving those values) — which means that every play can have an approximate point value based on where it started and where it finished.


We have a chance with this offensive scheme and with the pressure based defensive scheme to flip the results of last year. I'll be interested to see if the staff can get this done.
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas