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Author Topic: The Second Half  (Read 668 times)

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rogersvillemohog

The Second Half
« on: July 14, 2018, 02:48:10 pm »

The second half collapse. We know it all too well. It seemed to be a staple under Coach Bielema and company for five years. The other day I had a bit too much time on my hands and I wanted to see exactly how bad it was, so I ran the numbers. To be fair to everyone involved, these numbers are not comparative, but you don't need to compare them to know... they aren't good. I'll be looking at the second half year-by-year, then blown lead-by-blown lead each year under Bielema. Let's start off with year one.

2013, 3-9 (0-8)

3rd Quarter: Arkansas 75, All Opponents 115
                   Arkansas 40, SEC Opponents 87

4th Quarter: Arkansas 21, All Opponents 72
                   Arkansas 14, SEC Opponents 58

Blown Leads: 3 in total, all came in the fourth quarter. Rutgers, Mississippi State, LSU

Rutgers: Halftime - Arkansas led 10-6
             End of 3Q - Arkansas led 24-14
             Final - Arkansas 24, Rutgers 28
             Games Notes: Rutgers took the lead with 5:18 left in 4Q

Miss St: Halftime - Game tied 10-10
            End of 3Q - Arkansas led 17-10
            End of 4Q - Game tied 17-17
            Final (OT) - Arkansas 17, Mississippi State 24
            Game Notes: Mississippi State took the lead with 13:21 left in 4Q

#17 LSU: Halftime - Arkansas led 17-14
               End of 3Q - Arkansas led 27-21
               Final - Arkansas 27, LSU 31
               Game Notes: LSU took lead with 1:15 left in 4Q


2014, 7-6 (2-6)

3rd Quarter: Arkansas 61, All Opponents 55
                   Arkansas 30, SEC Opponents 31

4th Quarter: Arkansas 78, All Opponents 74
                   Arkansas 30, SEC Opponents 60

Blown Leads: 4 in total, 3 came in the fourth quarter, 1 came in the third quarter. Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State, Missouri. (Also tied with Auburn at half)

#6 Texas A&M: Halftime - Arkansas led 21-14
                       End of 3Q - Arkansas led 28-14
                       End of 4Q - Game tied 28-28
                       Final - Arkansas 28, Texas A&M 35
                       Game Notes: A&M tied the game with 2:08 left in 4Q

#7 Alabama: Halftime - Alabama led 7-6
                    End of 3Q - Arkansas led 13-7
                    Final - Arkansas 13, Alabama 14
                    Game Notes: UA took lead with 4:43 left in 3Q, BAMA took final lead with 12:36 left 4Q

#1 Miss St: Halftime - Arkansas led 10-7
                  End of 3Q - Game tied 10-10
                  Final - Arkansas 10, Mississippi State 17

#17 Mizzou: Halftime - Arkansas led 14-6
                   End of 3Q - Arkansas led 14-6
                   Final - Arkansas 14, Missouri 21
                   Game Notes: UA led until 12:41 mark of 4Q, Missouri took lead with 4:38 left in 4Q


2015, 8-5 (5-3)

3rd Quarter: Arkansas 114, All Opponents 75
                   Arkansas 76, P5 Opponents 58
                   Arkansas 66, SEC Opponents 41

4th Quarter: Arkansas 75, All Opponents 83
                   Arkansas 60, P5 Opponents 76
                   Arkansas 46, SEC Opponents 69

Blown Leads: 3 in total, 2 coming in the fourth quarter, 1 coming in the third quarter. Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State. (Also tied with TTU at half)

#14 Texas A&M: Halftime - Texas A&M led 10-7
                         End 3Q - Arkansas led 14-13
                         End 4Q - Game tied 21-21
                         Final - Arkansas 21, Texas A&M 28
                         Game Notes: Texas A&M tied the game with 2:50 left in 4Q

#8 Alabama: Halftime - Arkansas led 7-3
                    End 3Q - Alabama led 10-7
                    Final - Arkansas 14, Alabama 27
                    Game Notes: Arkansas led until 1:39 left in 3Q

Miss State: Halftime - Mississippi State led 31-21
                 End 3Q - Arkansas led 42-31
                 Final - Arkansas 50, Mississippi State 51
                 Game Notes: MSU blocked GW FG, UA led in 4Q until 3:05 left


2016, 7-6 (3-5)

3rd Quarter: Arkansas 51, All Opponents 103
                   Arkansas 30, P5 Opponents 91
                   Arkansas 23, SEC Opponents 84

4th Quarter: Arkansas 66, All Opponents 121
                   Arkansas 59, P5 Opponents 121
                   Arkansas 51, SEC Opponents 86

Blown Leads: 2 in total, both coming in the fourth quarter. Missouri and Virginia Tech.

Missouri: Halftime - Arkansas led 24-7
              End 3Q - Arkansas led 24-21
              Final - Arkansas 24, Missouri 28
              Game Notes: Arkansas led until 12:48 4Q, did not score in 2nd half

Virginia Tech: Halftime - Arkansas led 24-0
                    End 3Q - Arkansas led 24-21
                    Final - Arkansas 24, Virginia Tech 35
                    Game Notes: Arkansas led until 12:03 4Q, did not score in 2nd half


2017, 4-8 (1-7)

3rd Quarter: Arkansas 63, All Opponents 109
                   Arkansas 41, P5 Opponents 78
                   Arkansas 41, SEC Opponents 78

4th Quarter: Arkansas 98, All Opponents 129
                   Arkansas 63, P5 Opponents 108
                   Arkansas 63, SEC Opponents 94

Blown Leads: 3 in total, all coming in the fourth quarter. Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Missouri.

Texas A&M: Halftime - Arkansas led 21-17
                  End 3Q - Arkansas led 28-24
                  End 4Q - Game tied 43-43
                  Final (OT) - Arkansas 43, Texas A&M 50
                  Game Notes: A&M took lead 8:46 4Q (33-28), UA took lead 5:21 (36-33), A&M took lead 5:10 (40-36), UA took lead 3:39 (43-40), A&M tied 0:04 (43-43)

#16 Miss State: Halftime - Game tied 14-14
                        End 3Q - Arkansas led 21-14
                        Final - Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 28
                        Game Notes: Miss State tied game 3:57 4Q, Miss State took lead 0:17 4Q

Missouri: Halftime - Missouri led 31-28
              End 3Q - Arkansas led 35-31
              Final - Arkansas 45, Missouri 48
              Game Notes: MU took lead 12:59 4Q (38-35), UA lead 10:42 (42-38), MU lead 8:14 (45-42), UA tie 5:00 (45-45), MU lead 0:05 (48-45)


In Summary

Bielema's demise at Arkansas were the second half collapses. Everybody knows that. It's hard to play a what if game in this scenario, but in these 15 games (17 if you include two games tied at half), if Bielema had found a way to just go 6-7, his overall record at Arkansas would have been 35-28 through 5 years (7 wins/year). Would that have kept him around? Probably not with the team continuing to decline. Maybe he wouldn't have been fired after 2017, but I still think the inevitable happens by 2018 or 2019.

Bielema's Arkansas teams were outscored 730-936 in the second half over his 5 years in Fayetteville. That's abysmal no matter how you slice it and dice it. The second half collapse became a norm for Razorback football. A strange anomaly for a program based on power, running it down the opponents throat, and wearing them out. Maybe it was depth, maybe it was lack of competency by the coaching staff, maybe it was lack of confidence. Probably it was all three. But one thing is clear, there is a major culture change that needs to take place. Enter Chad Morris.

To me, this is Chad's biggest hurdle coming into 2018. We can all talk until we're blue in the face about the new scheme or who the QB will be. The 2017 squad had an opportunity to win 7 games in the regular season. We saw that. I find it hard to believe that this team cannot muster 6 or 7 wins with the given schedule and some key pieces returning on both sides of the ball. The question is how quickly can Chad change the culture. I understand that a very, very tough job, but I believe CM is up for it. Let's saddle up, put it in the left lane, pop the clutch, and hammer down. And, as Frank would say in Georgian accent, "PLAY HARD IN THE FOURTH QUARTER!"

bennyl08

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Re: The Second Half
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2018, 03:10:26 pm »

Good stuff.

I think it was primarily a lack of adapting schemes mid-game to adjustments that the opposing coaches make.

I think the Auburn game to open 2014 IIRC was a perfect example of that. At the end of the first half, our defense had forced something like 2-3 straight 3 and outs by the Auburn offense, and our offense had completely gassed their defense and was having it's way with them. Momentum was overwhelmingly on our side at half time.

Second half comes, and they switch qb's. To a guy who ended up playing DB of all things. However, we have no answer defensively to that change in offense. On the other side of the ball, they switched their DL scheme to start doing a lot of stunts and twists. Our OL which was manhandling them most of the second quarter doesn't get any new instructions for the second half and becomes completely ineffectual.

Of course, that game wouldn't have become a blowout in our favor regardless, but what was a game that turning decidedly in our favor became a game we lost by 24 points, largely due to major halftime changes by Auburn and zero changes by Bielema.

I completely agree at the culture change being the biggest determinant for the early success in Morris's career here. He has talent and a schedule to work with. If he's as good a playcaller as we all hope, then getting the team to a winning mentality is going to be the trick.

Petrino's time here was a near perfect textbook case of transition. Season 1, install the system basically. Season 2, we saw what the system could do, but we lost a lot of close games in 2009. The team knew what to do, but didn't know how to win, how to finish. in 2010, They started winning those close games as they learned how to win, but they still got star struck in the sugar bowl a bit. 2011, they lost a lot of talent but took care of business in the top 10 matchup bowl game, admittedly against a vastly overrated KSU team.

I imagine we will see something similar under Morris, or at least I hope. I'm expecting we should make a bowl game this year, and I hope to see some flashes in the games we lose. Next year, we should make an even better bowl game, and really compete in every game that we lose, and in 2020, we should start to win some of those marquee matchups.

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rogersvillemohog

Re: The Second Half
« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2018, 03:46:41 pm »

Good stuff.

I think it was primarily a lack of adapting schemes mid-game to adjustments that the opposing coaches make.

I think the Auburn game to open 2014 IIRC was a perfect example of that. At the end of the first half, our defense had forced something like 2-3 straight 3 and outs by the Auburn offense, and our offense had completely gassed their defense and was having it's way with them. Momentum was overwhelmingly on our side at half time.

Second half comes, and they switch qb's. To a guy who ended up playing DB of all things. However, we have no answer defensively to that change in offense. On the other side of the ball, they switched their DL scheme to start doing a lot of stunts and twists. Our OL which was manhandling them most of the second quarter doesn't get any new instructions for the second half and becomes completely ineffectual.

Of course, that game wouldn't have become a blowout in our favor regardless, but what was a game that turning decidedly in our favor became a game we lost by 24 points, largely due to major halftime changes by Auburn and zero changes by Bielema.

I completely agree at the culture change being the biggest determinant for the early success in Morris's career here. He has talent and a schedule to work with. If he's as good a playcaller as we all hope, then getting the team to a winning mentality is going to be the trick.

Petrino's time here was a near perfect textbook case of transition. Season 1, install the system basically. Season 2, we saw what the system could do, but we lost a lot of close games in 2009. The team knew what to do, but didn't know how to win, how to finish. in 2010, They started winning those close games as they learned how to win, but they still got star struck in the sugar bowl a bit. 2011, they lost a lot of talent but took care of business in the top 10 matchup bowl game, admittedly against a vastly overrated KSU team.

I imagine we will see something similar under Morris, or at least I hope. I'm expecting we should make a bowl game this year, and I hope to see some flashes in the games we lose. Next year, we should make an even better bowl game, and really compete in every game that we lose, and in 2020, we should start to win some of those marquee matchups.

We got spoiled with Petrino. As good of a play caller as BP was, he was an even better game manager making adjustments on the fly.

I can certainly think of about 9 to 12 examples off the top of my head of losing games we should've won due to Bielema's lack of adjustments. I remember being at the South Carolina game in 2013 (blowout) and watching Spurrier call the exact same screen pass out of the same exact formation 6 or 7 times in a row, just daring Chris Ash to play some bump and run once so he could hit us over the top. It's the little things, I guess lol.

The scary part is that through Bielema's tenure at UA, the coaching in the SEC significantly decreased and Bielema was still able to make a whole lot of coaches look like geniuses. Bret's a good guy. I wish him nothing but success in his NFL career, but crimenetly, it was just sad to watch. The vast majority of the time you could write a script before the game, and I swear it would be 97.75% accurate.

coach, my back hurts

Re: The Second Half
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2018, 11:39:40 am »

I said in another post that beleima should have won another 10 games had it not been by complete meltdowns.

Rutgers was the beginning. That was only a sign of things to come, but none of us knew it.

I can also add aTm twice, msst one or two games, LSU, mizz probably two games, and Toledo.

I think that is 8 or 9 games we had defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

That’s why I think we may be better than some think. We should have had better seasons the last 3 years if not for BB.

rtr

Re: The Second Half
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2018, 11:57:53 am »

The Rutgers game foretold what was to come.
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: The Second Half
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2018, 12:04:08 pm »

Nice thread. I think those numbers definitely touch on the lack of depth. Chavis even mentioned it in an interview with Grovey. Said we had some talent but touched on the need for more depth.

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Re: The Second Half
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2018, 03:11:55 pm »

How Arkansas plays in the third quarter this season will be a big deal, in my view.

If the Hogs can make the third quarter a big-scoring time, it would help those fourth-quarter issues. Move the ball in the third quarter. Don't go three and out. Please.
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