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Author Topic: Let's say you're right...  (Read 2673 times)

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Al Boarland

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Let's say you're right...
« on: July 10, 2018, 06:43:54 am »

About your projected win total for the 2018 season. With a relatively easier schedule and lots of returning experience. What is your expectation for the 2019 season? The schedule sets up pretty similarly in 2019. Some key seniors will be gone. To me it's about those JR's. Which of them will attempt to go pro?

Listening to Phil Steele on Mattingly's show he is pretty high on the Hogs and has them as one of his most improved teams. His expectation is a bowl game. However, when ranking the teams in the West the Hogs come in at near the bottom.

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2018, 07:08:27 am »

About your projected win total for the 2018 season. With a relatively easier schedule and lots of returning experience. What is your expectation for the 2019 season? The schedule sets up pretty similarly in 2019. Some key seniors will be gone. To me it's about those JR's. Which of them will attempt to go pro?

Listening to Phil Steele on Mattingly's show he is pretty high on the Hogs and has them as one of his most improved teams. His expectation is a bowl game. However, when ranking the teams in the West the Hogs come in at near the bottom.

In two of the last 5 years all 7 teams in the west were bowl eligible (from a wins standpoint). In the other 3 seasons, 6 of 7 had enough wins to qualify for a bowl.
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rhames

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2018, 07:23:40 am »

Morris's first 2 years here should be about making bowls (don't think that happens in 2018), improving depth, getting the system down, recruiting.



In year 3 i will be worried about how we finish in the west.  That's when we should show signs that we can compete to be in the top 3 or 4 in the west.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 07:51:51 am by rhames »
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jkstock04

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2018, 07:48:49 am »

In two of the last 5 years all 7 teams in the west were bowl eligible (from a wins standpoint). In the other 3 seasons, 6 of 7 had enough wins to qualify for a bowl.
Over 60% of FBS programs go to a bowl game these days. This isn't the measuring stick it was in 1980.

Hoggiedawg

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2018, 07:59:10 am »

Over 60% of FBS programs go to a bowl game these days. This isn't the measuring stick it was in 1980.

Exactly right. I don't consider going .500 a successful season at all. Heck, they even let some 5-7 teams go to a bowl now. We'll be lucky to go better than .500 this year, but that's to be expected with such a change in philosophy and scheme. I believe CCM can turn things around here until he shows he can't. 

I expect 2019 to be a good year and he'll win 8.
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SPAL

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2018, 08:11:48 am »

Exactly right. I don't consider going .500 a successful season at all. Heck, they even let some 5-7 teams go to a bowl now. We'll be lucky to go better than .500 this year, but that's to be expected with such a change in philosophy and scheme. I believe CCM can turn things around here until he shows he can't. 

I expect 2019 to be a good year and he'll win 8.

If we go 6-6 in 18 and are competitive in most losses, you can believe it's considered successful after the last 3 years.

#hammerdown

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2018, 08:19:54 am »

Of course it depends on how we look in the wins and losses.  But if I’m right (6 wins and bowl victory) I expect at least 8 wins in 2019. 

We do lose some key pieces but if CCM is going to do what I think 7 will be our basement.

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HogPharmer

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2018, 08:27:27 am »

Of course it depends on how we look in the wins and losses.  But if I’m right (6 wins and bowl victory) I expect at least 8 wins in 2019. 

We do lose some key pieces but if CCM is going to do what I think 7 will be our basement.

After this season, 7 should always be the basement. Never less.

lakecityhog

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2018, 08:59:15 am »

6 with an outside shot at 7 for this year is a reasonable expectation.

For 2019 we will have a second year starter at QB or someone better has stepped up, a win-win situation! We will have a full year of the Morris system under our belts and Morris will have a much better understanding of the SEC game. 2019 could be a pretty good year and 7 wins should be the floor.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2018, 09:03:48 am »

Listening to Phil Steele on Mattingly's show he is pretty high on the Hogs and has them as one of his most improved teams. His expectation is a bowl game. However, when ranking the teams in the West the Hogs come in at near the bottom.

Did you pick up a copy of his 2018 college football guide?  Sound familiar?

Steele projects Arkansas to finish 6th in the West.  The five he has ahead of us are all in the top 25 of ESPN's preseason FPI.

Why do you want to talk about next year?  Can we give the new staff time to move in first?
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jkstock04

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2018, 09:06:32 am »

At some point even the most ardent optimists are going to have to admit waiting til "next year" is no longer a legit deal.

Either we have competent coaches or we don't. Either we have talented players or we don't (this seems the biggest point of debate). I've read this morning on here that the O-line is chalked full of talent but the previous staff simply didn't know how to coach them. If this is true, and we have competent coaches now...improvement should be quick and obvious.

hogsanity

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2018, 09:48:24 am »

Until they get ELITE players at several positions, they will always be somewhere between 5 and 8 wins, with the occasional 9+ win year, just like they have been my entire life ( 48 years and counting ). Without those elite players they are never going to be better than the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC, and will always have 2 or 3 equals in the league as well, which is going to add up to 4 or 5 losses most seasons.

As for this year, they could be vastly improved and still only win 6 or 7. The schedule looks like 6, to get 7 they are going to have to pull an upset.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2018, 10:03:31 am »

6-6 in 2018 would be successful.
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HotlantaHog

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2018, 10:09:47 am »

Consensus expectations:

 2018 -- 6-6 (2-6) plus a bowl
 2019 -- 7-5 (3-5) plus a bowl
 2020 -- 8-4 (4-4) plus a bowl
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2018, 10:15:27 am »

Until they get ELITE players at several positions, they will always be somewhere between 5 and 8 wins, with the occasional 9+ win year, just like they have been my entire life ( 48 years and counting ). Without those elite players they are never going to be better than the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC, and will always have 2 or 3 equals in the league as well, which is going to add up to 4 or 5 losses most seasons.

As for this year, they could be vastly improved and still only win 6 or 7. The schedule looks like 6, to get 7 they are going to have to pull an upset.

You just described every team in the SEC West your entire life except Alabama. Is there something wrong with that? 

We’ve won 5 games or less 10 times in your life. We’ve won 8 games or more 24 times. 22 of those 8 win seasons were between 1975 and 2011. The last six mark a 65 year low. They aren’t indicative of the history of the program. So for 37 of the 43 or so seasons you likely remember, Arkansas has won 8 or more games about 60% of the time.

Another way of looking at it is that the Hogs were about 2.5 times more likely to win 8 games during your life thus far than 5.

Why do you constantly run the Razorbacks down?  In a state that has been around 47 to 49 in just about everything from education to per capita income since 1936, the Razorbacks are around 20 in all-time college football programs during the same time. Why do you think they are so popular in the state?

Wallow around in your misery, but speak for yourself.  The numbers usually contradict your dismal outlook.

Nashville Fan

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2018, 10:30:29 am »

Probably not reasonable to expect this team to win on the road in the SEC this year. So
2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS - Better win
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State - 50/50
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS - Better win
Sept. 22 – at Auburn - Loss
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas) - Loss
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA - Loss
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS - Better win - 50/50
Oct. 20 – TULSA - Better win
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT - Better win - 50/50
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU - Loss
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State - Loss
Nov. 24 – at Missouri - Loss


So 5 home wins - Two are possible 50/50 games that AR will only be favored because they are home.
+ One the only possible road win with CO ST.
= six wins that are possible

To get greater than 6 wins means that AR will have to beat one of the following at home or at a neutral site
aTm
Alabama
LSU

maybe a 30% chance of beating aTm or LSU; 5% chance of beating both.
0% chance of beating AL

Road games
5% chance of beating AU - not going to happen.
20% chance of beating MS ST - tough win in Starkville.
40% chance of beating MO based on questionable MO team last year. Will they melt down?

best case
2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS - win
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State - win
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS - Better win
Sept. 22 – at Auburn - Loss
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas) - loss
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA - Loss
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS - win
Oct. 20 – TULSA - win
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT - win
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU - win
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State - Loss
Nov. 24 – at Missouri - Loss

7-5

worst case
2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS - win
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State - loss
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS - win
Sept. 22 – at Auburn - loss
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas) - loss
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA - loss
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS - loss
Oct. 20 – TULSA - win
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT - win
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU - loss
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State - loss
Nov. 24 – at Missouri - loss

4-6

My bet 6-6
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jkstock04

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2018, 10:30:39 am »

Until they get ELITE players at several positions, they will always be somewhere between 5 and 8 wins, with the occasional 9+ win year, just like they have been my entire life ( 48 years and counting ). Without those elite players they are never going to be better than the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC, and will always have 2 or 3 equals in the league as well, which is going to add up to 4 or 5 losses most seasons.

As for this year, they could be vastly improved and still only win 6 or 7. The schedule looks like 6, to get 7 they are going to have to pull an upset.
We need a Dmac, Mallett, ect. Who is the last elite game changing talent we have had at the skill positions?

But yes that's what we need to have the 10ish win season. We are not ever going to have elite talent all over with the mulitiple top 5 classes in a row.

Hoggiedawg

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2018, 10:35:11 am »

If we go 6-6 in 18 and are competitive in most losses, you can believe it's considered successful after the last 3 years.

I know what you're saying, but I can't get excited about a .500 season. Also, comparing it to the last 3 years is a terribly low bar to claim success. With that said it will be progress and that's a good thing. 2019 is going to be the beginning of much better results for the Hogs. I expect a much bigger jump in 2019.
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2018, 10:41:05 am »

You just described every team in the SEC West your entire life except Alabama. Is there something wrong with that? 

We’ve won 5 games or less 10 times in your life. We’ve won 8 games or more 24 times. 22 of those 8 win seasons were between 1975 and 2011. The last six mark a 65 year low. They aren’t indicative of the history of the program. So for 37 of the 43 or so seasons you likely remember, Arkansas has won 8 or more games about 60% of the time.

Another way of looking at it is that the Hogs were about 2.5 times more likely to win 8 games during your life thus far than 5.

Why do you constantly run the Razorbacks down?  In a state that has been around 47 to 49 in just about everything from education to per capita income since 1936, the Razorbacks are around 20 in all-time college football programs during the same time. Why do you think they are so popular in the state?

Wallow around in your misery, but speak for yourself.  The numbers usually contradict your dismal outlook.

Facts given to refute someone else’s negativity. Good job BP.

P.S. Has your son already made it to campus? Congrats on his being a Hog!

bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2018, 10:56:23 am »

If we go 6-6 in 18 and are competitive in most losses, you can believe it's considered successful after the last 3 years.

6-6 and competitive in the rest will be okay. But it’s really only the last 18 games that have been puzzling. Arkansas was 13-7 from September 5, 2015 through October 15, 2016.  They are 6-12 since. Four of the ten SEC losses during the 6-12 run were by 7 points or less.

Expectations are low here and around the country right now because of the recent trend. That’s understandable, but if you look below the surface the way Phil Steele and others do, and look for the reasons why Arkansas went from 17 in the AP poll on October 15, 2016 to 50 in ESPN’s FPI on July 10, 2018, you can find reasons to believe Arkansas might be a sleeper to win 8 or more in 2018.

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GuvHog

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2018, 11:12:58 am »

6-6 in 2018 would be successful.

I wouldn't call a 6-6 year successful but after not going to a bowl last year and the new coaching staff, I could live with it but only for this year.
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GuvHog

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2018, 11:14:44 am »

After this season, 7 should always be the basement. Never less.

IMO 8 regular season wins a year should be the basement after this year.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2018, 11:21:46 am »

Facts given to refute someone else’s negativity. Good job BP.

P.S. Has your son already made it to campus? Congrats on his being a Hog!

Thanks. hogsanity is entitled to his low opinions of the program, Arkansas high school football, and Razorbacks “fuhball” fans (“bidness” has long been recognized as Arkansas dialect, but “fuhball”?).  But after a decade of seeing the same thing here day-after-day, it gets old.  I heard a quote yesterday attributed to Dr. Martin Luther King - “Attitude, not aptitude, creates altitude.”  Lot’s of truth in that.

Matthew went through orientation with a bunch of other freshmen players on June 28-29 and started Summer II on July 2. Thanks for asking.  Everything at U of A is first class. We have a lot to be proud of. I did a lot of walking during orientation those two days and had forgotten how beautiful the entire campus is. And the views are incredible. The stadium is spectacular. Razorback Road from Maple to Baum is for that matter. Can’t wait for September 1.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 11:38:11 am by bphi11ips »
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Al Boarland

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2018, 11:26:22 am »

Consensus expectations:

 2018 -- 6-6 (2-6) plus a bowl
 2019 -- 7-5 (3-5) plus a bowl
 2020 -- 8-4 (4-4) plus a bowl

So, you expect improvement every year? Recruiting this cycle will tell the tale for 2020. I don't believe the schedule is as forgiving after 2018 and 2019. The assumption would have to be higher than typically rated classes for continuous improvement. Otherwise there will come a season where the W's do not increase. 8 wins should be doable, but is not easy in the conference.  It will hinge on the East draw.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2018, 11:29:18 am »

6-6 and competitive in the rest will be okay. But it’s really only the last 18 games that have been puzzling. Arkansas was 13-7 from September 5, 2015 through October 15, 2016.  They are 6-12 since. Four of the ten SEC losses during the 6-12 run were by 7 points or less.

Expectations are low here and around the country right now because of the recent trend. That’s understandable, but if you look below the surface the way Phil Steele and others do, and look for the reasons why Arkansas went from 17 in the AP poll on October 15, 2016 to 50 in ESPN’s FPI on July 10, 2018, you can find reasons to believe Arkansas might be a sleeper to win 8 or more in 2018.

I think anyone can frame an argument for more wins. It's just about the likelihood of all of it coming together. In Steele's look below the surface he came up with a 2018 team that falls near the bottom of the division. That doesn't have anything to do with trends.
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Poker_hog

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #25 on: July 10, 2018, 11:30:00 am »

If a turnaround is going to happen it should happen fairly quickly.  A good analogy is McVay taking over for Fisher at the rams last year.  A qb guro/offensive minded coach taking over for a boneheaded stuck in the past stubborn coach. 

Talent is keeping us from winning the SEC.  Poor coaching is keeping from being a decent SEC team.  Hopefully that has been corrected.

We’ve recruited better than 6 of the teams on our schedule and you’d hope wed have a significant coaching advantage over LSU and ole miss.  So I’d say 6 wins is expected with hoping for 8.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #26 on: July 10, 2018, 11:35:19 am »

So, you expect improvement every year? Recruiting this cycle will tell the tale for 2020. I don't believe the schedule is as forgiving after 2018 and 2019. The assumption would have to be higher than typically rated classes for continuous improvement. Otherwise there will come a season where the W's do not increase. 8 wins should be doable, but is not easy in the conference.  It will hinge on the East draw.

You’re right about the schedule after 2019. Notre Dame replaces CSU in 2020 - on the road. By then CCM’s offense should be more like what he wants it to be, and our defensive recruiting seems to be on the uptick when you look at commits’ offer lists.

I don’t know why so much emphasis is placed here on wins and losses. Arkansas has a good football team almost every year. We generally play in front of packed stadiums on television every week. It’s a great place to go to school and play football. We also play one of the toughest schedules in the country every year. That isn’t going to change.

Al Boarland

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #27 on: July 10, 2018, 11:36:56 am »



It’s a great place to go to school and play football. We also play one of the toughest schedules in the country every year. That isn’t going to change.

Agreed.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #28 on: July 10, 2018, 11:37:20 am »

I think anyone can frame an argument for more wins. It's just about the likelihood of all of it coming together. In Steele's look below the surface he came up with a 2018 team that falls near the bottom of the division. That doesn't have anything to do with trends.

As I pointed out above, it has to do with the five teams he ranks ahead of us.

ricepig

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #29 on: July 10, 2018, 11:37:59 am »

You’re right about the schedule after 2019. Notre Dame replaces CSU in 2020 - on the road. By then CCM’s offense should be more like what he wants it to be, and our defensive recruiting seems to be on the uptick when you look at commits’ offer lists.

I don’t know why so much emphasis is placed here on wins and losses. Arkansas has a good football team almost every year. We generally play in front of packed stadiums on television every week. It’s a great place to go to school and play football. We also play one of the toughest schedules in the country every year. That isn’t going to change.

UT replaces Vandy as our East visiting team in 2020.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #30 on: July 10, 2018, 11:41:35 am »

As I pointed out above, it has to do with the five teams he ranks ahead of us.

Sure.  I just think fans sometime fall in the trap of assuming the teams ahead of them have questions that will not have positive answers and all the questions of their team will.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2018, 11:43:40 am »

If a turnaround is going to happen it should happen fairly quickly.  A good analogy is McVay taking over for Fisher at the rams last year.  A qb guro/offensive minded coach taking over for a boneheaded stuck in the past stubborn coach. 

Talent is keeping us from winning the SEC.  Poor coaching is keeping from being a decent SEC team.  Hopefully that has been corrected.

We’ve recruited better than 6 of the teams on our schedule and you’d hope wed have a significant coaching advantage over LSU and ole miss.  So I’d say 6 wins is expected with hoping for 8.

I would go so far as to way it HAS to happen quickly.  Otherwise you will never recruit at the level necessary to climb up the ladder.
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HF#1

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #32 on: July 10, 2018, 11:43:44 am »

Expectations or predictions for 2019 are silly. Hell, 2018 predictions are silly.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #33 on: July 10, 2018, 11:44:11 am »

UT replaces Vandy as our East visiting team in 2020.

Like Arkansas, UT is a team that has underperformed for no real apparent reason this entire decade. They will bring talent to Fayetteville in 2020.

Al Boarland

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #34 on: July 10, 2018, 11:45:56 am »

Expectations or predictions for 2019 are silly. Hell, 2018 predictions are silly.

It's the off-season.  Would would you rather discuss?
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HF#1

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #35 on: July 10, 2018, 11:47:44 am »

It's the off-season.  Would would you rather discuss?

It doesn't matter what I'd like to discuss. I simply gave my opinion on predictions based on a new coaching staff, new qb's, new system, and pretty much new everything. Hard to predict how this team will react. We may spend the season weeding out loafers and finish 4-8 or they may excel and we finish 8-4.
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ricepig

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #36 on: July 10, 2018, 11:49:09 am »

Like Arkansas, UT is a team that has underperformed for no real apparent reason this entire decade. They will bring talent to Fayetteville in 2020.

Yep, makes for a good home SEC schedule in 2020.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #37 on: July 10, 2018, 11:56:05 am »

IMO 8 regular season wins a year should be the basement after this year.

Why?

In 20 seasons of 12-regular season games, we've won 8+ games 10 times.

This is why this place always implodes over the tiniest things.
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hogsanity

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #38 on: July 10, 2018, 12:00:47 pm »

You just described every team in the SEC West your entire life except Alabama. Is there something wrong with that? 

 

I never said there was anything wrong with it. On the contrary, for years I have said people should be happy with 7 or 8 wins because it is, as you even said, pretty much every team in our division except Bama.  And when that special year or two comes around, revel in it.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #39 on: July 10, 2018, 12:05:42 pm »

Why?

In 20 seasons of 12-regular season games, we've won 8+ games 10 times.

This is why this place always implodes over the tiniest things.

Yeah, those aren't realistic expectations.

HogPharmer

Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2018, 12:06:34 pm »

Why?

In 20 seasons of 12-regular season games, we've won 8+ games 10 times.

This is why this place always implodes over the tiniest things.

Exactly. It's easy to expect an 8 win season... Until you remember we play in the SECw. When you have to start picking, at minimum, 4 teams in your conference that you should absolutely beat every single year, sometimes it's just not going to be there. As sad as it is to say, a .500 record in conference when you're in the SECw is not too shabby. That means you've likely beat at least 2 or 3 ranked teams. And with the OOC schedules getting tougher (i.e. we were supposed to play Michigan for a couple seasons, and already have ND scheduled), you're looking at having to win 5 conference games in the SEC--not an easy task.

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #41 on: July 10, 2018, 12:07:40 pm »



I don’t know why so much emphasis is placed here on wins and losses.


Because many of the posters here are delusional, unrealistic, grounded in nothing, wearing the thickest hog colored glasses possible. They only measure success in wins and losses. Not type of young men the program graduates, not in how the coaches sell the school to recruits, simply in whether the Hogs beat A&M or Aub so they can go around talking about how "they" beat the Aggies or made Gussie boy look bad.

As I have said here for over a decade, too many people get too much self worth out of what a group of young men do on 12 or 13 days in the fall. Then again, they likely get too much self worth out of what a group of HS kids do on Friday nights, or 12 yr olds do on a baseball field.

Arkansas, at this point in time, is a good program, not horrid, not great, but good, and there is nothing wrong with that at all.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #42 on: July 10, 2018, 01:03:04 pm »

Because many of the posters here are delusional, unrealistic, grounded in nothing, wearing the thickest hog colored glasses possible. They only measure success in wins and losses. Not type of young men the program graduates, not in how the coaches sell the school to recruits, simply in whether the Hogs beat A&M or Aub so they can go around talking about how "they" beat the Aggies or made Gussie boy look bad.

As I have said here for over a decade, too many people get too much self worth out of what a group of young men do on 12 or 13 days in the fall. Then again, they likely get too much self worth out of what a group of HS kids do on Friday nights, or 12 yr olds do on a baseball field.

Arkansas, at this point in time, is a good program, not horrid, not great, but good, and there is nothing wrong with that at all.

It doesn't take Hog colored glasses to see the possibility of an 8-win season in 2018, though.  Predicting over 6-6 is one thing, but it's possible to see 8 or more if everyone holds their mouth just right.  It's all about the way the schedule sets up, injuries, momentum, and breaks.  It's also about how quickly the coaching transition takes hold, but there's precedent for immediate turnarounds here and elsewhere.  The Hogs will only be facing a talent gulf in a few games, maybe only in one game.  LSU returns far less than anyone in the West.  A&M and Arkansas have proven in three of the last four years on a neutral field they are just about dead even. 

I think you're wrong about self-worth.  Pride?  Gratification?  Serotonin rush?  Emotional connection through a lifetime of shared experiences with friends and family and maybe the years they spent in college on The Hill?  Waiting for the next time the goal posts take a trip up Dickson?  All of those.  But it's pretty cynical to suggest that rabid fans (of any team) get self-worth from the performance of their favorite team.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 01:39:56 pm by bphi11ips »
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Nashville Fan

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #43 on: July 10, 2018, 01:21:45 pm »

IMO 8 regular season wins a year should be the basement after this year.
I total agree. that is only 4-4 in the SEC. That is a must to even be relevant in the west.
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Pigsknuckles

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #44 on: July 10, 2018, 01:23:31 pm »

Not sure if it is because of decreased expectations, or a resignation to current reality. In both football, and basketball, the expectation used to be that we were playing for the quality of the post season bowl, or how favorable a seed we would get in the NCAA Tournament. Now, it seems that we are playing just to get to a bowl, or get into the NCAA. I wonder when things changed. I'm talking post SWC here.

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #45 on: July 10, 2018, 01:31:14 pm »

Sure.  I just think fans sometime fall in the trap of assuming the teams ahead of them have questions that will not have positive answers and all the questions of their team will.

That is not realistic.. Neither is assuming that all the teams ahead of us will have everything fall their way and we will have everything go wrong...

Seriously people, can we kick off the 2018 season before we start predicting records for '19 and beyond?

We had fans who were saying Petrino wasn't even as good a HC as Hooten after his first season with a young and depleted roster that went 5-7 and could have been 2-10 or worse.

Then many of the same people were anointing him as the next best thing to Saban after years 3-4 as if he was the only HC who could win 8 or more games here.

Some of our fans are as bad as Aggies.. Remember when they were wringing their hands about OU or an NFL team whisking Sumlin away.. then they ran him off and he was lucky to land at AZ St.

Inhogswetrust

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #46 on: July 10, 2018, 01:45:14 pm »

Like Arkansas, UT is a team that has underperformed for no real apparent reason this entire decade. They will bring talent to Fayetteville in 2020.

Agree. It is obvious by comments Pruitt made after their spring game he means business. I believe both Arkansas and Tennessee are going to be on an upswing when that game rolls around. Should be a good one.
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Nashville Fan

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #47 on: July 10, 2018, 01:47:35 pm »

The Hogs will only be facing a talent gulf in a few games, maybe only in one game.
I would argue that this year, AU and AL are out of ARs league talentwise. The rest are possible any given Saturday. LSU is almost there but not sure if Coach O can stay out of the coaching enough to not mess a few games up. aTm is interesting because of the history. On paper they are all up there - AU, AL, LSU and aTm.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #48 on: July 10, 2018, 01:48:11 pm »

Agree. It is obvious by comments Pruitt made after their spring game he means business. I believe both Arkansas and Tennessee are going to be on an upswing when that game rolls around. Should be a good one.

Yep. Would be a good time to buy stock in both programs.
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hogsanity

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Re: Let's say you're right...
« Reply #49 on: July 10, 2018, 02:52:52 pm »

It doesn't take Hog colored glasses to see the possibility of an 8-win season in 2018, though.  Predicting over 6-6 is one thing, but it's possible to see 8 or more if everyone holds their mouth just right.  It's all about the way the schedule sets up, injuries, momentum, and breaks.  It's also about how quickly the coaching transition takes hold, but there's precedent for immediate turnarounds here and elsewhere.  The Hogs will only be facing a talent gulf in a few games, maybe only in one game.  LSU returns far less than anyone in the West.  A&M and Arkansas have proven in three of the last four years on a neutral field they are just about dead even. 

I think you're wrong about self-worth.  Pride?  Gratification?  Serotonin rush?  Emotional connection through a lifetime of shared experiences with friends and family and maybe the years they spent in college on The Hill?  Waiting for the next time the goal posts take a trip up Dickson?  All of those.  But it's pretty cynical to suggest that rabid fans (of any team) get self-worth from the performance of their favorite team.

I said in the season prediction thread that I could see 8 or 9 wins. The 4 ooc games, om and Vandy are games they Hogs the Hogs will have their best chance in. So thats 6. Mizzu is going through some offensive changes, and lost key pieces on D. A&M lots of upheaval there as well. Right now I'd say the Hogs do not have enough to beat Bama, Aub, LSu or MSu, but the games have to be played, so anything can happen.

My point is more to the big picture though. EVERY season we sit here and say we can see 8 or 9 wins, some even go farther than that every year. I mean, until they play, I can see 15 wins if I try hard enough. I can talk about how Gus isn't hungry anymore with his new deal. How Saban, at some point, will burn out. How A&M is really a trash program that's just been lucky, or how MSU is going to be the big flop this year with their new coach. How Cn is taylor made for Moriis' offense and is going to come riding in on his white horse and be the greatest Hog Qb ever by mid season. Or maybe TS, after paying his dues, will finally be the hero some think he is.

As for the self worth thing, believe what you want on that. I hear it and I see it in towns all over Arkansas and in posts here. People get too much of them self out of what others do on the field. They feel they are some how less of a person if the Hogs lose and they have to put up with some ribbing from friends or co workers.  Or their town is somehow diminished if they lose to the team from 30 miles down the road on a Friday night.
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