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Author Topic: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins  (Read 5280 times)

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ricepig

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PharmacistHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2018, 12:25:57 pm »

I think that's probably about right. 
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Dark Helmet Hog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2018, 12:28:17 pm »

Fair, but I'll take the over.

ricepig

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2018, 12:30:52 pm »

Fair, but I'll take the over.

I want to, but I wouldn't put more than I would on a C&E bet, lol.

GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2018, 12:35:05 pm »

widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2018, 12:38:12 pm »

I'd take the over at 5.5, not 6 though. 7 wins will be overachieving. In my opinion there's a very high likelihood we finish 6-6.
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Hogwild

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2018, 12:46:35 pm »

I think that's probably about right.

I wouldn't be the over or under @6, so I disagree with them

I would take the over on USCe, LSU, & A&M all are at 7.  I think atleast 2/3 reach 8 wins.
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hawganatic

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2018, 12:52:36 pm »

Predicted wins, from me at least:

The four non-conference (there's just nothing about any of these schools that should scare us)
Ole Miss (they're a cluster)
Vanderbilt (this should never be a loss, especially at home)
Missouri (they got a bad case of the Derek Dooley's)

Think I might put some money on the over.

SemperHawg

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2018, 12:52:52 pm »

This schedule is Cake... 6 wins should be doable unless we drop an early non con and he lets one of the freshman have a take your lumps year.
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hogsanity

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2018, 12:54:48 pm »

For all those saying the schedule is cake, or 6 should be easy, etc, which sports book will you be using to put your 10K on the over, and will you post the betting slip?
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SemperHawg

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2018, 12:58:28 pm »

For all those saying the schedule is cake, or 6 should be easy, etc, which sports book will you be using to put your 10K on the over, and will you post the betting slip?
The schedule, relative to the ones we've played in the last couple of years is CAKE.  As a matter of principal I don't  bet the Hogs ever in any sport.  Everyone is just trying to figure out if the existing talent is enough to take advantage of the schedule.

Vegas obviously thinks the schedule is easy.  How often to you see them set the win total at bowl eligibility for a team that won 4 games last year with a brand new coach and lack luster recruiting classes we've had?

hogsanity

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2018, 01:23:56 pm »

The schedule, relative to the ones we've played in the last couple of years is CAKE.  As a matter of principal I don't  bet the Hogs ever in any sport.  Everyone is just trying to figure out if the existing talent is enough to take advantage of the schedule.

Vegas obviously thinks the schedule is easy.  How often to you see them set the win total at bowl eligibility for a team that won 4 games last year with a brand new coach and lack luster recruiting classes we've had?

Come on, you know they set the line for action. Sure, every year two or 3 o/u jump out and look like easy pickings. Last year they had Purdue and Miss St at like 2.5 and I think 4.5 respectively.

YEs, the schedule is EASIER than it has been, but no sec sched is easy.
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jkstock04

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2018, 01:47:38 pm »

Looks like they've been reading HV.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/southpoint-sportsbook-lists-2018-win-totals-odds-every-sec-team/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Sigh...... probably about right. The football program sucking balls every single year gets really old. Nowadays 6 wins is a decent/good year for us. With this weak of a schedule 6 wins should be a given, but I guess we are so devoid of talent and add in the equation installing a new offense and defense more tough times are a comin.
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jkstock04

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2018, 01:49:04 pm »

For all those saying the schedule is cake, or 6 should be easy, etc, which sports book will you be using to put your 10K on the over, and will you post the betting slip?
It was "easy" money last year as well. I vividly remember the thread.
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Bubba's Bruisers

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2018, 01:51:19 pm »

I'd take the over at 5.5, not 6 though. 7 wins will be overachieving. In my opinion there's a very high likelihood we finish 6-6.

Agree.
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HotlantaHog

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2018, 01:54:00 pm »

Seems about right.

Most likely 5-7 victories -- if it falls to 4 or fewer, it's a pretty disappointing beginning. If it hits 8, somebody find Jeff Long and get an extension and raise and buyout set up.
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go hogues

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2018, 02:33:50 pm »

It was "easy" money last year as well. I vividly remember the thread.
Every summer, the ones who griped the previous fall and winter about how slow/undersized we looked and how bad our recruiting class was, seem to forget all that and set some unattainable goal of "8 wins or bust!"

I think we will be VERY fortunate to notch 6 wins in 2018.
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navyhog24

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2018, 02:37:47 pm »

Every summer, the ones who griped the previous fall and winter about how slow/undersized we looked and how bad our recruiting class was, seem to forget all that and set some unattainable goal of "8 wins or bust!"

I think we will be VERY fortunate to notch 6 wins in 2018.

Especially considering when completely offensive and defensive philosophies
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Swine Time

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2018, 02:39:22 pm »

if they where giving 10/1 odds, I'd still buy a half a point for 3/1 odds at 5.5.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2018, 02:52:35 pm »

Predicted wins, from me at least:

The four non-conference (there's just nothing about any of these schools that should scare us)
Ole Miss (they're a cluster)
Vanderbilt (this should never be a loss, especially at home)
Missouri (they got a bad case of the Derek Dooley's)

Think I might put some money on the over.

I'd watch out for Colorado St., that spread should be under a TD.
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hawganatic

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2018, 02:54:28 pm »

For all those saying the schedule is cake, or 6 should be easy, etc, which sports book will you be using to put your 10K on the over, and will you post the betting slip?

So are you being an a$$ today just to be an a$$, or is this you every day?

We're just talking about the schedule.  No reason to get snarky about it.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2018, 02:57:51 pm »

The totals I'll consider betting are UGA u10.5, TN o5.5, MS St. u8.5, KY u5.5, and MIZ o7.5

There's a lot of recency bias, relative to history, built into the UGA, TN, and MS St. totals.

hogsanity

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2018, 04:19:54 pm »

So are you being an a$$ today just to be an a$$, or is this you every day?

We're just talking about the schedule.  No reason to get snarky about it.

I just find it odd/funny/ that a team that won 4 games last, and with a new coach, new schemes on both sides of the ball, possibly a new QB, has so many games that people think are gimmees. Yes, they might win 15 games, but really, even if you want to count CSU as a gimmee, they only have 4 of those on the schedule. Every team in the SEC is capable of beating the Hogs.
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Sed76

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2018, 04:42:21 pm »

Year 1 of a new staff I would be thrilled with 6 wins earning a bowl trip. Just hope in the games we do lose the team shows some fight. Don't want to see any of the laying down garbage we saw under Coach Golden Coral.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2018, 05:24:23 pm »

I'd watch out for Colorado St., that spread should be under a TD.

You need to do more research on Colorado state. This will be a serious rebuilding year for them. They lost a lot of starters on both sides of the ball from last year's team along with some assistant coaches and their DC has retired.
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Dark Helmet Hog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #25 on: June 14, 2018, 05:34:12 pm »

I want to, but I wouldn't put more than I would on a C&E bet, lol.

I'm with you. However, I drink the Kool Aide by the gallon. That and we have a favorable schedule.


For superstitious reasons, 2018 and 1998 both end in 8. Bielema and Ford both recruited well yet under performed. Both also liked to hit the bottle. So, you see, there's just too many signs. The stars are lining up for a good season.
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HogPharmer

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2018, 05:50:16 pm »

I think that's probably about right.

Isn't hogville always right?

HoginMemphis

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #27 on: June 14, 2018, 05:57:07 pm »

Looks like they've been reading HV.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/southpoint-sportsbook-lists-2018-win-totals-odds-every-sec-team/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Hogs will improve by 1 or 2 wins over last year. 5 wins is likely the outcome. 2-6 in SEC and 3-1 in non-conf.
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hawganatic

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2018, 06:09:07 pm »

I just find it odd/funny/ that a team that won 4 games last, and with a new coach, new schemes on both sides of the ball, possibly a new QB, has so many games that people think are gimmees. Yes, they might win 15 games, but really, even if you want to count CSU as a gimmee, they only have 4 of those on the schedule. Every team in the SEC is capable of beating the Hogs.

So why don't you try adding to the convo by breaking down the schedule with what you think happens?  Opposed to making snarky posts that add no value?
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rhames

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2018, 06:24:49 pm »

You need to do more research on Colorado state. This will be a serious rebuilding year for them. They lost a lot of starters on both sides of the ball from last year's team along with some assistant coaches and their DC has retired.


And what Arkansas is going through isn't a serious rebuild?


Arkansas should win but the game will be tough.  Would not shock me if they lose this one but upset an sec foe.
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rhames

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #30 on: June 14, 2018, 06:30:57 pm »

So why don't you try adding to the convo by breaking down the schedule with what you think happens?  Opposed to making snarky posts that add no value?


To be fair what he said was pretty tame for a message bored. He is right. This place is about 6 weeks away from going full retard on predictions. Hell I'll even admit by August I'll be pumped with the preseason high and hopes for an 8 win season haha



For a quick simple, breakdown. The hogs have 4 non conference games they should win. CSU could be tricky. One sec game they should win but won't be easy, vandy. A swing game in Ole Miss.


The rest of the schedule the Razorbacks will be underdogs. Can they steal one, maybe?

5 or 6 wins is about right and totally fine considering the complete overhaul in everything the football team will be going through.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #31 on: June 14, 2018, 06:41:09 pm »

Vegas and I think alike. 6-6 feels right for what we know right now.
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TheRazorback500

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #32 on: June 14, 2018, 07:27:43 pm »

We should win 6 because we have a talent and experience advantage over six of our opponents. Any other wins would be gravy.
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TNRazorbacker

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #33 on: June 14, 2018, 09:15:37 pm »

I’ll take it
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TNRazorbacker

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #34 on: June 14, 2018, 09:20:16 pm »

You need to do more research on Colorado state. This will be a serious rebuilding year for them. They lost a lot of starters on both sides of the ball from last year's team along with some assistant coaches and their DC has retired.

Which sounds strikingly like what we’ll be dealing with on the heals of a year that was already awful.
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mckinneyhog5

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #35 on: June 15, 2018, 12:21:36 am »

The totals I'll consider betting are UGA u10.5, TN o5.5, MS St. u8.5, KY u5.5, and MIZ o7.5

There's a lot of recency bias, relative to history, built into the UGA, TN, and MS St. totals.
Think Mizzo will go under 7.5 and Kentucky will go over 5.5. I think Kentucky is the best vet of all of them. We should do no worse then 6-6 but getting to 7 will be tough.
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BILLYBOB

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #36 on: June 15, 2018, 03:32:46 am »

Anybody putting any money on this team, at this point, should have their head examined. Seriously, we’ve got a completely new staff, new playbook, new quarterback, weak recruiting, and a culture of losing. I genuinely hope Morris is the coach/savior we’ve been looking for...and I’ll damn sure be pulling for him...but if you’re putting your hard earned cash on a team like this you’re certifiably nuts.

Hogcore

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #37 on: June 15, 2018, 06:27:32 am »

6 wins is still pushing it for me, but I'd take it.

I'm just ready for football to be exciting again.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #38 on: June 15, 2018, 07:59:27 am »

Which sounds strikingly like what we’ll be dealing with on the heals of a year that was already awful.

Not at all. Arkansas returns 8 starters on offense and 8 starters on Defense if you count Pulley. They also have a much better coaching staff than they had last year. There is no comparison.
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rhames

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #39 on: June 15, 2018, 08:03:27 am »

Not at all. Arkansas returns 8 starters on offense and 8 starters on Defense if you count Pulley. They also have a much better coaching staff than they had last year. There is no comparison.


So 16 starters from a team that went 4-8 and will be going through a complete philosophy change isn't rebuilding? Not to mention the CSU game is the second game of the season. If it were later in the season, I would think the hogs could win by 2 possessions. This will be a close game IMO.



Who is to say those players will even be the starters? Isn't the fun argument on the board that bielema didn't play the more talented players?
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #40 on: June 15, 2018, 08:15:50 am »


So 16 starters from a team that went 4-8 and will be going through a complete philosophy change isn't rebuilding? Not to mention the CSU game is the second game of the season. If it were later in the season, I would think the hogs could win by 2 possessions. This will be a close game IMO.



Who is to say those players will even be the starters? Isn't the fun argument on the board that bielema didn't play the more talented players?

Nope, it isn't rebuilding when a team returns that many starters and that much experience. There is some position shuffling going on but not rebuilding. The Hogs should beat Colorado State by at least 2 TDs and probably more.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #41 on: June 15, 2018, 08:33:24 am »

Nope, it isn't rebuilding when a team returns that many starters and that much experience. There is some position shuffling going on but not rebuilding. The Hogs should beat Colorado State by at least 2 TDs and probably more.

We very well may, but I'm not sure how you can say that with much certainty. Like others have stated- we're dealing with coaching turnover, Bielema players in Morris's system, we were 4-8 last season while almost losing to Coastal Carolina in Fayetteville, and CSU is the second game of the season on the road. We don't have much going for us even if CSU is "rebuilding." The spread will be single digits, probably under a TD.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #42 on: June 15, 2018, 08:34:47 am »

I also suspect there will be major issues with the pass game early on in the season.
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The Kig

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #43 on: June 15, 2018, 08:56:48 am »

Especially considering when completely offensive and defensive philosophies

This.  It's actually remarkable that a 4 win team with not only a new staff, but entirely different schemes on both side of the ball gets a Vegas nod at breaking even on the season.  Granted part of that is the schedule is easier while another portion may be attributed to a perception that we underperformed our talent level last year. 
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jkstock04

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #44 on: June 15, 2018, 09:00:16 am »


So 16 starters from a team that went 4-8 and will be going through a complete philosophy change isn't rebuilding? Not to mention the CSU game is the second game of the season. If it were later in the season, I would think the hogs could win by 2 possessions. This will be a close game IMO.



Who is to say those players will even be the starters? Isn't the fun argument on the board that bielema didn't play the more talented players?
That's a good point...gotta wonder how many of those 16 starters returning get the start this season.
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mckinneyhog5

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #45 on: June 15, 2018, 09:00:49 am »

Sorry but with what we have returning and if CCM is what people are claiming him to be, then we should get to 6 wins. I remember what BP was left with when he got here and he got 5 wins with Casey Dick at QB.
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The Kig

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #46 on: June 15, 2018, 09:04:32 am »

Nope, it isn't rebuilding when a team returns that many starters and that much experience. There is some position shuffling going on but not rebuilding.

Ummm... those starters w/ that much experience won 4 games flat out gave up in games last year.  Some of that was on the coaching staff, but not all. 

Having said that, I do believe our Defense vastly underperformed their talent and will be much improved with Chavis' more aggressive style.  It may not show up in points given up (partially due to the change in offensive philosophy), but I do think we will get more short fields and turnovers.
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HoginMemphis

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #47 on: June 15, 2018, 09:05:29 am »

Nope, it isn't rebuilding when a team returns that many starters and that much experience. There is some position shuffling going on but not rebuilding. The Hogs should beat Colorado State by at least 2 TDs and probably more.
With this, I'm fully convinced of my initial thinking that the Razorbacks will lose to Colorado St.

Arkansas was 4-8 and 1-7 last year and won 2 games by luck: Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina. Could have easily been 3-9 or 2-10.

Half of the starters from last year will not be starters this year unless injuries occur to players in front of them.

Do not lose sight of the fact that we play in the SEC. The schedule is as tough as ever. Winning 2 in SEC is going to be tough to do. Winning 3 non-conf games is going to be tough to accomplish. I'll take 5-7 and 2-6 all day long for this coming season given the lack of talent. When this prediction comes true, do not blame coach Morris and staff. It's the talent level. The year after should be a flip of that, to 7-5.
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hogsanity

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #48 on: June 15, 2018, 09:14:27 am »


So 16 starters from a team that went 4-8 and will be going through a complete philosophy change isn't rebuilding? Not to mention the CSU game is the second game of the season. If it were later in the season, I would think the hogs could win by 2 possessions. This will be a close game IMO.

Who is to say those players will even be the starters? Isn't the fun argument on the board that bielema didn't play the more talented players?


Funny, in this thread we have people talking about the team will be better due to the players coming back, yet in the Barley transfer thread they are talking about how low the talent level left by BB is.
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HogPharmer

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #49 on: June 15, 2018, 09:34:29 am »


So 16 starters from a team that went 4-8 and will be going through a complete philosophy change isn't rebuilding? Not to mention the CSU game is the second game of the season. If it were later in the season, I would think the hogs could win by 2 possessions. This will be a close game IMO.



Who is to say those players will even be the starters? Isn't the fun argument on the board that bielema didn't play the more talented players?

It doesn't matter how bad the starters are as long as they are returning starters.... The fact they are returning automatically makes them better than any NEW starter on Bama's roster.... At least I think that's the point he's trying to make....  ???
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