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Author Topic: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins  (Read 4282 times)

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HoginMemphis

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #150 on: June 25, 2018, 03:26:39 pm »

Not that it matters, but almost everyone who was making predictions about Arkansas a year ago got it wrong, including all of Hogville and me (I think I was looking for 8 wins but maybe more.)
You are right. I was in the minority when I predicted 5-7. Missed it by 1 game.
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InHognito

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #151 on: June 26, 2018, 12:01:28 am »

Donít the realists like to point to recruiting rankings as the reason for Arkansasís SEC woes?

Check Arkansasís recruiting rankings vs. its 4 OOC opponents. CSU?  81 average over last four years. CSU ranks 130 in returning production - dead last in FBS. Arkansas returns 17 starters, the most since 2010. Oh yeah, that altitude thing will kill us. If any OOC team has a shot itís Tulsa, but they wonít beat Arkansas.

Arkansas also has comparative recruiting ranking advantages over Vanderbilt and Missouri. That hasnít helped much against Missouri, but we arenít going to lose to Vanderbilt. We arenít going to lose at home to Ole Miss. Weíll win one or two of the remaining games on the schedule. Iíve already told you knuckleheads why. But hereís another reason:

Arkansas was ranked five straight weeks in 2016 heading into the Auburn game, when they were 17th. No one seems to be quite clear what happened there, but thatís the first time we saw the cracks become a chasm. The problems since werenít a talent issue. Arkansas is full of thoroughbreds with something to prove. Those who think this team went from very good to cellar dweller in a year and a half are in for a rude awakening or a pleasant surprise.

It takes a lot of assuming on your part to get us to 7 wins.

I just find it sickening that we have fallen so far as a program that we would consider 7 wins "a good year." And, like it or not, it aint all Bert's fault. Petrino and John L get some blame too.

We will be very lucky to make a bowl this year
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CryHavoc

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #152 on: June 26, 2018, 02:24:14 am »

It takes a lot of assuming on your part to get us to 7 wins.

I just find it sickening that we have fallen so far as a program that we would consider 7 wins "a good year." And, like it or not, it aint all Bert's fault. Petrino and John L get some blame too.

We will be very lucky to make a bowl this year
   

There is no way we make a bowl this year.  I did not renew my tickets.
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LZH

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #153 on: June 26, 2018, 04:27:19 am »

   

There is no way we make a bowl this year.  I did not renew my tickets.

If your kid drops the winning touchdown pass, are you gonna stop going to his games?
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #154 on: June 26, 2018, 07:09:16 am »

It takes a lot of assuming on your part to get us to 7 wins.

I just find it sickening that we have fallen so far as a program that we would consider 7 wins "a good year." And, like it or not, it aint all Bert's fault. Petrino and John L get some blame too.

We will be very lucky to make a bowl this year

I still can't figure out the auto-win vs Ole Miss. 
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #155 on: June 26, 2018, 08:38:09 am »

It takes a lot of assuming on your part to get us to 7 wins.

I just find it sickening that we have fallen so far as a program that we would consider 7 wins "a good year." And, like it or not, it aint all Bert's fault. Petrino and John L get some blame too.

We will be very lucky to make a bowl this year

I call 7 wins a good year for a new coach who is changing the offense but has hire one of the best DCs in college football and a good defensive staff to go with him.

With that schedule which is very favorable to the Hogs, they should win at least 6 games.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #156 on: June 26, 2018, 08:39:47 am »

I still can't figure out the auto-win vs Ole Miss. 

As I stated before, the Ole Miss football program is in disarray. They could very likely go 0-8 in conference this year.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #157 on: June 26, 2018, 08:51:43 am »

I still can't figure out the auto-win vs Ole Miss. 

Itís not an auto-win. Itís a game we should win.
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Busta_Nutt

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #158 on: June 26, 2018, 09:02:23 am »

Itís not an auto-win. Itís a game we should win.

Agreed. We should win every game in Little Rock.
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Deep Shoat

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #159 on: June 26, 2018, 09:27:33 am »

Itís not an auto-win. Itís a game we should win.
He knows that.  But it doesnít fit his agenda of ďstars are the only thing that matterĒ.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #160 on: June 26, 2018, 10:02:38 am »

As I stated before, the Ole Miss football program is in disarray. They could very likely go 0-8 in conference this year.

But it's not, so throwing out that line of thinking what else do you have?
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #161 on: June 26, 2018, 10:02:57 am »

Itís not an auto-win. Itís a game we should win.

Based on what factors?
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #162 on: June 26, 2018, 10:05:22 am »

He knows that.  But it doesnít fit his agenda of ďstars are the only thing that matterĒ.

Stars aren't the only thing that matters.  Top end talent is the most important thing that matters.  Everything else falls in line somewhere after that.  You can have the best coach in the world, but he's not going to consistently win if his guys aren't as talented as the other guys. 
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #163 on: June 26, 2018, 10:12:58 am »

As I stated before, the Ole Miss football program is in disarray. They could very likely go 0-8 in conference this year.

Ole Miss will make a bowl game this season, you can mark that down.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #164 on: June 26, 2018, 10:38:39 am »

But it's not, so throwing out that line of thinking what else do you have?

Yes, it is in disarray. They are still reeling from sanctions. Things are so messed up at Ole Miss that they couldn't even get a reputable head coach to even consider their opening so they were forced to name their interim coach, Matt Luke, as head coach.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #165 on: June 26, 2018, 10:40:19 am »

Ole Miss will make a bowl game this season, you can mark that down.

Not likely. They are banned from post season play this year. I'm not sure but I believe they are banned next year too.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #166 on: June 26, 2018, 10:43:52 am »

Based on what factors?

(1) Better coaching
(2) More returning starters on both sides of the ball
(3) More experience
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ricepig

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #167 on: June 26, 2018, 10:55:49 am »

Ole Miss will make a bowl game this season, you can mark that down.

Egg Bowl!
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imtad16

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #168 on: June 26, 2018, 10:57:10 am »



I still can't figure out the auto-win vs Ole Miss. 

Stars aren't the only thing that matters.  Top end talent is the most important thing that matters.  Everything else falls in line somewhere after that.  You can have the best coach in the world, but he's not going to consistently win if his guys aren't as talented as the other guys. 

I don't think it's an auto win. With so much uncertainty, especially at QB, it's hard to say where the automatic wins are, but I believe the optimism surrounding the Ole Miss game is that one we have owned them through all their top classes and two they had 7 players transfer (1 5-star and 4 4-stars) that were gonna play a big part on the team this season. So, if stars matter losing a special 5-star QB, two 4-star receivers, your starting 4-star Free Safety (Deontay Anderson was a borderline 5-star too), and a starting 4-star LB is gonna hurt. The thing that limits them this season the most from leveraging their big 2016 top 5 class (which when you use the 247 class calculator to factor in losing 4 players from that class this offseason it drops them to 13th) is Jordan Ta'amu. Ta'amu played decent last season, but he is still a 3 star JUCO transfer from a non-power JUCO program. He had offers from Ole Miss, Minnesota, New Mexico, Eastern Kentucky, and Southern Miss. Yes, the 2016 class gave them an influx of talent, but 3-star JUCO QB's have their limitations. He is the reason I think we have a good chance to beat them at home next season.


Transfers:
Shea Patterson 5-star
Deontay Anderson 4-star
Breon Dixon 4-star
Van Jefferson 4-star
Tre Nixon 4-star
Jack Defoor 3-star
Jarrion Street 3-star
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imtad16

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #169 on: June 26, 2018, 10:59:51 am »

Ole Miss will make a bowl game this season, you can mark that down.

Do you mean you are guaranteeing they will be bowl eligible? They are finishing up their 2 year bowl ban this season.
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bphi11ips

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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #172 on: June 26, 2018, 11:21:36 am »

I didn't realize they weren't eligible for a bowl this season but they'll get to six wins.
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99toLife

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #173 on: June 26, 2018, 11:25:29 am »

Not likely. They are banned from post season play this year. I'm not sure but I believe they are banned next year too.

Don't think so, just this year and last year.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #174 on: June 26, 2018, 11:45:19 am »

Don't think so, just this year and last year.

I don't think they were banned last year, they just had a horrible season. it's my understanding that Ole Miss self band themselves from post season play this year and the NCAA confirmed that then added another year. Shea Patterson was going to stay until that second post season ban was added.
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imtad16

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #175 on: June 26, 2018, 11:47:23 am »

Recruiting rankings...

Well actually when comparing the players still on campus the talent is pretty comparable.


2015 class
Ole Miss #17 Arkansas #22

2016 class
Ole Miss #13* Arkansas #23

*Ole Miss finished that season with the 5th ranked class, but a 5-star, 2 4-stars, and 2 3-stars transferred from that class in the offseason so using the 247 class calculator they fall to 13th.

2017 Class
Ole Miss #38* Arkansas #27

*Ole Miss finished that season with the 31st ranked class, but they lost 1 of their 3 4-stars from that class Breon Dixon due to transfer in the offseason so using the 247 class calculator again they fall to #38.

2018 Class
Ole Miss #31 Arkansas #49*

*We signed 4 less players than they did.
*AVG star rating Ole Miss .8676 and Arkansas .8629 [Add]


On top of that to bph's point we beat them with all their top classes, 4-star QB's, and no probation and now the on campus talent is all very pretty even and their starter is a returning 3-star JUCO transfer QB.

« Last Edit: June 26, 2018, 12:20:10 pm by imtad16 »
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99toLife

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #176 on: June 26, 2018, 11:47:52 am »

I don't think they were banned last year, they just had a horrible season. it's my understanding that Ole Miss self band themselves from post season play this year and the NCAA confirmed that then added another year. Shea Patterson was going to stay until that second post season ban was added.

I believe you are one year off Guv.  NCAA added the additional year of 2018
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #177 on: June 26, 2018, 12:01:35 pm »

I believe you are one year off Guv.  NCAA added the additional year of 2018

Link? All I know is that Shea Patterson had originally decided to stay after the 2017 season even though this year's bowl ban was already announce but he suddenly changed his mind after the NCAA handed down it's sanctions.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #178 on: June 26, 2018, 12:17:29 pm »

Well actually when comparing the players still on campus the talent is pretty comparable.


2015 class
Ole Miss #17 Arkansas #22

2016 class
Ole Miss #13* Arkansas #23

*Ole Miss finished that season with the 5th ranked class, but a 5-star, 2 4-stars, and 2 3-stars transferred from that class in the offseason so using the 247 class calculator they fall to 13th.

2017 Class
Ole Miss #38* Arkansas #27

*Ole Miss finished that season with the 31st ranked class, but they lost 1 of their 3 4-stars from that class Breon Dixon due to transfer in the offseason so using the 247 class calculator again they fall to #38.

2018 Class
Ole Miss #31 Arkansas #49*

*We signed 4 less players than they did.
*AVG star rating Ole Miss .8676 and Arkansas .8629 [Add]


On top of that to bph's point we beat them with all their top classes, 4-star QB's, and no probation and now the on campus talent is all very pretty even and their starter is a returning 3-star JUCO transfer QB.



Thanks for the info.

Taíamu was 20-30 for 368 yards last year, but we still won. 

Both teams will probably be 3-3 or 4-2 on October 13. Ole Miss has a week to regroup at home against Louisiana-Monroe before going to Little Rock. Arkansas comes off three straight tough games ending with Alabama in Fayetteville.

The game is likely to be close again. It may come down to which teamís heads are in the right place. Intangibles probably favor Arkansas
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RT1941

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #179 on: June 26, 2018, 12:23:19 pm »

Link? All I know is that Shea Patterson had originally decided to stay after the 2017 season even though this year's bowl ban was already announce but he suddenly changed his mind after the NCAA handed down it's sanctions.
OM self-imposed 2017 bowl ban, the NCAA tacked on 2018 as well.  http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21629060/ole-miss-rebels-get-two-year-bowl-ban-scholarship-reductions-ncaa

Shea Patterson appealed to the NCAA on the grounds that he was lied to by OleMiss/Bjork/Freeze about the severity of the NCAA sanctions, they told him it would only be 1 yr bowl ban (2017), the NCAA added 2018 and Shea bolted.  The NCAA agreed to his appeal and he can play immediately.
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imtad16

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #180 on: June 26, 2018, 12:29:49 pm »

OM self-imposed 2017 bowl ban, the NCAA tacked on 2018 as well.  http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21629060/ole-miss-rebels-get-two-year-bowl-ban-scholarship-reductions-ncaa

Shea Patterson appealed to the NCAA on the grounds that he was lied to by OleMiss/Bjork/Freeze about the severity of the NCAA sanctions, they told him it would only be 1 yr bowl ban (2017), the NCAA added 2018 and Shea bolted.  The NCAA agreed to his appeal and he can play immediately.


The NCAA has now cleared, and in Van Jefferson's case the SEC, all 7 Ole Miss Transfers to play immediately.


https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/5/11/17344280/ole-miss-transfers-ncaa-rules

https://www.alligatorarmy.com/2018/6/1/17418294/van-jefferson-cleared-florida-gators-transfer-ncaa-sec-rules
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Al Boarland

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RT1941

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #182 on: June 26, 2018, 12:33:09 pm »


The NCAA has now cleared, and in Van Jefferson's case the SEC, all 7 Ole Miss Transfers to play immediately.


https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/5/11/17344280/ole-miss-transfers-ncaa-rules

https://www.alligatorarmy.com/2018/6/1/17418294/van-jefferson-cleared-florida-gators-transfer-ncaa-sec-rules
True - the circus OleMiss was running was atrocious and Bjork/Freeze/Farrar honestly thought they'd only get 1 yr self-imposed bowl ban.  They were feeding those players a bunch of crap for months until it all hit the fan.
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woodhog14

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #183 on: June 26, 2018, 12:33:59 pm »

nm.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #184 on: June 26, 2018, 05:01:46 pm »

Never said they would win. It's a tossup game.

If itís a tossup, so is A&M and Missouri. Probably Mississippi State, too.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #185 on: June 27, 2018, 08:40:29 am »

If itís a tossup, so is A&M and Missouri. Probably Mississippi State, too.

I would say so sans A&M.  They have more talent. 
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #186 on: June 27, 2018, 10:08:49 am »

I would say so sans A&M.  They have more talent. 

They have more talent every year according to recruiting services.  Yet, three of the last four games have gone to overtime.  A&M needed fourth quarter comebacks, head-scratching play calls, a missed short field-goal, and a TD nullified by a tripping call to survive those. 

You can pretty much throw a blanket over A&M, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State in any given year.  Arkansas was slightly ahead of that group until the Smith/Bielema years.  Whether Mississippi State can stay in it without Mullins is a question.  So is whether Jimbo Fisher is the secret sauce A&M has been looking for forever.  So is whether Ole Miss can recruit with the bigs boys without paying as well as they have recently.  So is whether Chad Morris can return Arkansas to the high middle of the SEC West.  That's where they are over time behind Alabama, LSU and Auburn, with a shot at contending every few years.  That's plenty for me.   

Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #187 on: June 27, 2018, 10:30:45 am »

They have more talent every year according to recruiting services.  Yet, three of the last four games have gone to overtime.  A&M needed fourth quarter comebacks, head-scratching play calls, a missed short field-goal, and a TD nullified by a tripping call to survive those. 

You can pretty much throw a blanket over A&M, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State in any given year.  Arkansas was slightly ahead of that group until the Smith/Bielema years.  Whether Mississippi State can stay in it without Mullins is a question.  So is whether Jimbo Fisher is the secret sauce A&M has been looking for forever.  So is whether Ole Miss can recruit with the bigs boys without paying as well as they have recently.  So is whether Chad Morris can return Arkansas to the high middle of the SEC West.  That's where they are over time behind Alabama, LSU and Auburn, with a shot at contending every few years.  That's plenty for me.   

Agreed.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #188 on: June 27, 2018, 11:05:08 am »

They have more talent every year according to recruiting services.  Yet, three of the last four games have gone to overtime.  A&M needed fourth quarter comebacks, head-scratching play calls, a missed short field-goal, and a TD nullified by a tripping call to survive those. 

You can pretty much throw a blanket over A&M, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State in any given year.  Arkansas was slightly ahead of that group until the Smith/Bielema years.  Whether Mississippi State can stay in it without Mullins is a question.  So is whether Jimbo Fisher is the secret sauce A&M has been looking for forever.  So is whether Ole Miss can recruit with the bigs boys without paying as well as they have recently.  So is whether Chad Morris can return Arkansas to the high middle of the SEC West.  That's where they are over time behind Alabama, LSU and Auburn, with a shot at contending every few years.  That's plenty for me.   

That's why other than the top 2 spots (Alabama & Auburn) the West is hard to predict. Any one of 4 schools (LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Arkansas) could finish 3rd.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #189 on: July 05, 2018, 09:51:48 pm »

15-0.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #190 on: July 06, 2018, 08:43:14 am »

I'll take the OVER 6 all day long. America is about to find out just how bad Bret Bielema and his coordinators/assistant coaches were at the UA. Truth is, we're not that short on talent. We had injuries out the kazoo last season. Combined with the 'flip flop wearing, morbidly obese coach with no energy' and Kurt "where's the peanut butter and jelly sandwiches" Anderson, the Hogs had the most morbidly obese coaching staff in the SEC.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #191 on: July 06, 2018, 12:20:09 pm »

I'll take the OVER 6 all day long. America is about to find out just how bad Bret Bielema and his coordinators/assistant coaches were at the UA. Truth is, we're not that short on talent. We had injuries out the kazoo last season. Combined with the 'flip flop wearing, morbidly obese coach with no energy' and Kurt "where's the peanut butter and jelly sandwiches" Anderson, the Hogs had the most morbidly obese coaching staff in the SEC.

Bielema hiring Anderson was his downfall. Who wouldv'e thought one guy could butcher the o line like he did?
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