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Author Topic: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins  (Read 5271 times)

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hogsanity

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #100 on: June 20, 2018, 12:40:23 pm »

Pretty much the way I see it. Eight wins is possible, though. Saying itís possible and saying itís expected are different. Weíll probably be favored in six games. Six wins is the right betting number. But there are four other games that are winnable, and thatís based on talent.

Last year was one of those years that happen in college football. The 4-8 record was not an indication of the talent on the roster. Nor was the bad game against Coastal Carolina. We all know there were several factors that led to a disastrous season. But it wasnít about talent. Had TCU and A&M gone the other way, and they could have, weíd have gone into Mississippi State no worse than 6-4. 75,000 fans would have made a big difference in two close losses to end the year. There was enough talent last year to be an 8 win team. The season just got away early. It happens.

The reasons why Arkansas went 4-8 last year is why you take the over this year. Those, and the favorable schedule.

I'm still very leary of the Qb situation though. New scheme, and other than CK, no experience at all.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #101 on: June 20, 2018, 01:09:48 pm »

I'm still very leary of the Qb situation though. New scheme, and other than CK, no experience at all.

I think QB is the biggest question mark going into the season. That doesnít mean we donít have great talent. We do. QB is one position where we are comparatively loaded.

I think prognosticators tend to assume Chad Morris is a ďsystemĒ coach and that it will take a while for him to find his system QB. I think heís a coach who has been successful everywhere by building his offense around his talent. Cole Kelley showed he can move the chains last year. Reports are that Ty Storey is learning the reads in the RPO. I think youíll see a definite uptick in tempo, but youíll also see an offense designed to win now. The backfield is deep and can present matchup problems for most defenses.

The offense weíll see this year is not likely to be the offense weíll see in year two or three, but weíll still have a good offense. Thereís too much talent there to not be good.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #102 on: June 20, 2018, 02:49:23 pm »

For this offensive system to really pop, it needs a legitimate pass/run threat at QB. Anybody see one of those around?

John Chavis -- used to being loaded up with talent at Tennessee, LSU and aTm -- has to reconstruct an Arkansas defense where tweeners were fattened up instead of trimmed down. Who knows how much he can make of this team simply by putting people in the right places. Does not mean our D will have enough difference-makers, next-level talents.

The Vegas over/under suggests Arkansas can go 4-0 or 3-1 in nonleague games and 2-6 or 3-5 in SEC play. Not a silly notion, but this feels like a 5-7 team to me.
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jkstock04

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #103 on: June 20, 2018, 03:22:29 pm »

For this offensive system to really pop, it needs a legitimate pass/run threat at QB. Anybody see one of those around?


In my opinion, no...and is the biggest problem the team faces. If we did I would jump on the 7/8 win bandwagon.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #104 on: June 20, 2018, 03:45:00 pm »

For this offensive system to really pop, it needs a legitimate pass/run threat at QB. Anybody see one of those around?

John Chavis -- used to being loaded up with talent at Tennessee, LSU and aTm -- has to reconstruct an Arkansas defense where tweeners were fattened up instead of trimmed down. Who knows how much he can make of this team simply by putting people in the right places. Does not mean our D will have enough difference-makers, next-level talents.

The Vegas over/under suggests Arkansas can go 4-0 or 3-1 in nonleague games and 2-6 or 3-5 in SEC play. Not a silly notion, but this feels like a 5-7 team to me.

The offense doesnít need to pop to win 6 games.  The defense doesnít need to be dominant to win 6 games. It just needs to play like the veteran unit it is. Itís not full of first round picks, but it has solid numbers of All-SEC talent.

If Cole Kelley can average 3-4 ypc on runs (excluding sacks), that will open up lanes for the backs and receivers. This offense might look something like an uptempo version of Collin Klein and K-State, with more talent in the backfield and greater potential for the home run vertical ball. If itís not Cole Kelley, maybe weíll see the QB who makes the best RPO decisions.

This team doesnít need to be world beaters to win 6 games. They just need to play smart with effort and confidence. If they split 4 of the other winnable games they could go 8-4. The ball eventually will start bouncing the right way. This could be the year.

Feels like 8-4 to me. No worse than 6-6.   
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #105 on: June 20, 2018, 06:41:18 pm »

The offense doesnít need to pop to win 6 games.  The defense doesnít need to be dominant to win 6 games. It just needs to play like the veteran unit it is. Itís not full of first round picks, but it has solid numbers of All-SEC talent.

If Cole Kelley can average 3-4 ypc on runs (excluding sacks), that will open up lanes for the backs and receivers. This offense might look something like an uptempo version of Collin Klein and K-State, with more talent in the backfield and greater potential for the home run vertical ball. If itís not Cole Kelley, maybe weíll see the QB who makes the best RPO decisions.

This team doesnít need to be world beaters to win 6 games. They just need to play smart with effort and confidence. If they split 4 of the other winnable games they could go 8-4. The ball eventually will start bouncing the right way. This could be the year.

Feels like 8-4 to me. No worse than 6-6.

8-4 will be incredibly difficult.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #106 on: June 20, 2018, 07:32:58 pm »

The offense doesnít need to pop to win 6 games.  The defense doesnít need to be dominant to win 6 games. It just needs to play like the veteran unit it is. Itís not full of first round picks, but it has solid numbers of All-SEC talent.

If Cole Kelley can average 3-4 ypc on runs (excluding sacks), that will open up lanes for the backs and receivers. This offense might look something like an uptempo version of Collin Klein and K-State, with more talent in the backfield and greater potential for the home run vertical ball. If itís not Cole Kelley, maybe weíll see the QB who makes the best RPO decisions.

This team doesnít need to be world beaters to win 6 games. They just need to play smart with effort and confidence. If they split 4 of the other winnable games they could go 8-4. The ball eventually will start bouncing the right way. This could be the year.

Feels like 8-4 to me. No worse than 6-6.   

I'll agree that there probably isn't any reason to go less than 6-6 in 2018. A good step in that direction would be scoring 7 more points/gm and allowing 7 less/gm. A 14 point swing would help a lot. Doing that last year would have produced these results.

Fla A&M          W        56-0
TCU                L        14-21
TX A&M          W        50-43
N. Mex St        W       49-17
S. Carolina       L        29-41
Alabama          L        16-34
Auburn            L        27-45
Ole Miss          W       45-30
C. Carolina       W       46-31
LSU                L        17-26
Miss St           W        28-21
Missouri          W        52-41

7-5/4-4
« Last Edit: June 21, 2018, 06:20:21 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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nwahogfan1

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #107 on: June 20, 2018, 11:29:43 pm »

6-6 would be a good year with all the scheme, player and coaching changes.  To most of the Hog followers it looks like they believe the coaches can just flip a switch and all of these average athletes at so many positions who were recruited to run a ground and pound offense and a defense designed to slow down instead of stopping should be easy.
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mckinneyhog5

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #108 on: June 20, 2018, 11:45:09 pm »

If Morris is anything like Malzhan, then he'll use 2 maybe 3 QB's. Eventually going with the hot hand.

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #109 on: June 21, 2018, 12:17:07 am »

If Chavis is still the Chief, yes.

Josh Liddell ran a 4.5 at the combine.  That ainít slow.  But he never played 4.5.  Heck, he might not have played 5.5. 

Making the D an attacking D with less and simpler reads will make us play faster.  Thatís what the Chief does.

Well, that's what he did 20 years ago. Whether he can do it in this decade remains to be seen
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #110 on: June 21, 2018, 12:25:35 am »

Well, that's what he did 20 years ago. Whether he can do it in this decade remains to be seen

To be fair he did it back at LSU with much better players and depth.
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CFB_Fanatic

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #111 on: June 21, 2018, 12:49:45 am »

To be fair he did it back at LSU with much better players and depth.

Well no doubt. But that's the "chicken or the egg" of all of sports: does coaching make good players or do players make good coaches? The case can be made for both.

Regardless, that's his job here now, so he has to find a way to get it done, whether that's through recruiting or developing better players.
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Deep Shoat

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #112 on: June 21, 2018, 05:15:16 am »

Well, that's what he did 20 years ago. Whether he can do it in this decade remains to be seen
Hence, ďIf Chavis is still the ChiefĒ...
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oldman1015

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #113 on: June 21, 2018, 06:39:55 am »

If Chavis is still the Chief, yes.

Josh Liddell ran a 4.5 at the combine.  That ainít slow.  But he never played 4.5.  Heck, he might not have played 5.5. 

Making the D an attacking D with less and simpler reads will make us play faster.  Thatís what the Chief does.
Great answer. Hope you are correct.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #114 on: June 21, 2018, 08:55:28 am »

Well, that's what he did 20 years ago. Whether he can do it in this decade remains to be seen

Chief won the Broyles Award in 2011. LSU finished the season 13 in total defense. They were 8 in 2012, 15 in 2013, and 9 in 2014. All of Chavisís defenses at Tennessee and LSU were pin-your-ears-back, in your face man coverage, attacking defenses. Heís one of the best at scheming for an opponent.

Chief was generally considered the best DC in the business when A&M made him an offer he couldnít refuse for 2015. His defenses at A&M were not ranked highly. But consider Sumlinís defenses at A&M when he took over - 57 in 2012, Sumlinís first and best year.  In 2013 the Aggies dropped to 109 in total defense.  They finished 2014 at 102.  Chavis cut that in half his first year.

Many suggest that Sumlin was Chiefís biggest problem at A&M. If so, how much was it due to Sumlin himself and how much was due to his uptempo offense?  If it was uptempo, will that problem continue at Arkansas?  These are legitimate questions, but I donít think Chief has forgotten how to coach and scheme. Heís proven that this decade. In spades. If he takes Arkansas from 101 to 51 in total defense, weíll be pretty happy.   
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Al Boarland

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #115 on: June 21, 2018, 09:05:27 am »

Well no doubt. But that's the "chicken or the egg" of all of sports: does coaching make good players or do players make good coaches? The case can be made for both.

Regardless, that's his job here now, so he has to find a way to get it done, whether that's through recruiting or developing better players.

Morris has said himself that players make the coach.  Now coaches have to be able to cruit or be a program that cruits, so to that extent good (recruiting) coaches make good players come to your program.
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imtad16

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #116 on: June 21, 2018, 09:18:20 am »

6-6 would be a good year with all the scheme, player and coaching changes.  To most of the Hog followers it looks like they believe the coaches can just flip a switch and all of these average athletes at so many positions who were recruited to run a ground and pound offense and a defense designed to slow down instead of stopping should be easy.

At the same time most of these players were also offered by HUNH or pass happy spread programs as well. For example, Jared Cornelius flipped to TCU before ultimately signing with us. Also, Cole Kelly was offered by Oklahoma State and Kentucky neither of which is ground and pound at all. We could go on and on. Their offers can still be seen in their 247 profiles. So, they ultimately went to a pro style philosophy, but most of our players were also recruited by Big 12, ACC, SEC, Big 10 etc spread programs that clearly thought they were fits for their systems. On top of that I don't think we were really ground and pound in the last couple seasons under Enos  anyway. We threw the ball a lot at times. In the end I would agree the questions at QB and the contrast of styles from Bielema to Morris will keep the transition from being easy, but I believe there is talent and these guys are capable of running the system well. There is just so much spread in high school now that even coaches like Bielema can't avoid recruiting guys from high school spread systems.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #117 on: June 21, 2018, 09:27:50 am »

Chief won the Broyles Award in 2011. LSU finished the season 13 in total defense. They were 8 in 2012, 15 in 2013, and 9 in 2014. All of Chavis’s defenses at Tennessee and LSU were pin-your-ears-back, in your face man coverage, attacking defenses. He’s one of the best at scheming for an opponent.

Chief was generally considered the best DC in the business when A&M made him an offer he couldn’t refuse for 2015. His defenses at A&M were not ranked highly. But consider Sumlin’s defenses at A&M when he took over - 57 in 2012, Sumlin’s first and best year.  In 2013 the Aggies dropped to 109 in total defense.  They finished 2014 at 102.  Chavis cut that in half his first year.

Many suggest that Sumlin was Chief’s biggest problem at A&M. If so, how much was it due to Sumlin himself and how much was due to his uptempo offense?  If it was uptempo, will that problem continue at Arkansas?  These are legitimate questions, but I don’t think Chief has forgotten how to coach and scheme. He’s proven that this decade. In spades. If he takes Arkansas from 101 to 51 in total defense, we’ll be pretty happy.   

Chavis himself said that Chad Morris is the first head coach that he's seen eye to eye with since Fulmer. That speaks volumes. He did not have a good relationship with the Mad Hatter or Sumlin.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #118 on: June 21, 2018, 09:31:22 am »

For this offensive system to really pop, it needs a legitimate pass/run threat at QB. Anybody see one of those around?

John Chavis -- used to being loaded up with talent at Tennessee, LSU and aTm -- has to reconstruct an Arkansas defense where tweeners were fattened up instead of trimmed down. Who knows how much he can make of this team simply by putting people in the right places. Does not mean our D will have enough difference-makers, next-level talents.

The Vegas over/under suggests Arkansas can go 4-0 or 3-1 in nonleague games and 2-6 or 3-5 in SEC play. Not a silly notion, but this feels like a 5-7 team to me.

I agree with you about the QB, but I can't figure out why Chad started a pro style passing QB his last 2 years at SMU when he had a true dual threat QB on the bench.
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RT1941

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #119 on: June 21, 2018, 09:38:50 am »

If Morris is anything like Malzhan, then he'll use 2 maybe 3 QB's. Eventually going with the hot hand.
True - I've seen Malzhan use 3 QB's in one single game. 
If Morris is anything like Malzhan, then he'll use 2 maybe 3 QB's. Eventually going with the hot hand.
Will Morris utilize a TE?  Malzhan doesn't
Will Morris operate with multiple RB's?  Malzhan doesn't

In other words, I hope Morris puts a more dynamic and less predictable offense on the field than what I've seen Malzhan do the last few years.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #120 on: June 21, 2018, 09:49:43 am »

True - I've seen Malzhan use 3 QB's in one single game.  Will Morris utilize a TE?  Malzhan doesn't
Will Morris operate with multiple RB's?  Malzhan doesn't

In other words, I hope Morris puts a more dynamic and less predictable offense on the field than what I've seen Malzhan do the last few years.

To be honest, Malzahn has been all over the place with his offense. At Springdale, he used a pro style passing QB then switched to a Dual Threat QB after arriving at Auburn then last year switched back to a pro style passing QB.
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Qadi999

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #121 on: June 21, 2018, 05:15:03 pm »

I keep seeing all this talk about a learning curve and how it will take time. First off Morris was a high school coach and a damn good one. He Understands and knows how to craft a system to meet his players talent. He's not unbending like most college coaches he won't try to beat a square peg into a round hole, Its what all good high school coaches do. And as for the team, almost all of them played in some form of the system that Coach Morris uses. The learning curve is far less great then it was for Coach BB's System which is part of what led to his downfall. This System is easier to find talent for and easier to recruit to then Coach BB's system because it what most high schools are running. At the end of the day, Arkansas will have far more success in Coach Morris's system than it ever would or will have in a heavy pro-run-first system like BB used.

HogPharmer

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #122 on: June 21, 2018, 05:24:28 pm »

True - I've seen Malzhan use 3 QB's in one single game.  Will Morris utilize a TE?  Malzhan doesn't
Will Morris operate with multiple RB's?  Malzhan doesn't

In other words, I hope Morris puts a more dynamic and less predictable offense on the field than what I've seen Malzhan do the last few years.

But Morris is a Malzhan clone....
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rhames

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #123 on: June 21, 2018, 05:44:37 pm »

I keep seeing all this talk about a learning curve and how it will take time. First off Morris was a high school coach and a damn good one. He Understands and knows how to craft a system to meet his players talent. He's not unbending like most college coaches he won't try to beat a square peg into a round hole, Its what all good high school coaches do. And as for the team, almost all of them played in some form of the system that Coach Morris uses. The learning curve is far less great then it was for Coach BB's System which is part of what led to his downfall. This System is easier to find talent for and easier to recruit to then Coach BB's system because it what most high schools are running. At the end of the day, Arkansas will have far more success in Coach Morris's system than it ever would or will have in a heavy pro-run-first system like BB used.


I think this is one of those hogville truths that no one really knows, they just see it posted over and over. Then post it as fact.

MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #124 on: June 21, 2018, 07:51:19 pm »

Getting back to the original topic of conversation, it is worth noting what Bill Connelly projected for Arkansas in past years.

Coming into the 2016 season and largely because of what he saw returning from 2015, Connelly projected that the Hogs would score 32.7 pts/gm in 2016 and allow 22.9 p/gm on defense. What we actually scored was an avg of 30.3 and took a dive in points allowed to 31.7/gm.

Coming into the 2017 season Connelly projected that we would score an avg of 29.9/gm and allow 32.8/gm. We actually averaged 28.8/gm and allowed an average of 36.2/gm. Really, a complete meltdown for the most part, though just scoring 7 more/gm and allowing 7 less/gm would have produced 7 wins in the regular season. I believe that a downturn in coaching and keeping the team focused and goal oriented caused significant problems with last years team.

This year his projection is that we score an avg of 28.4/gm and allow an avg of 37.3/gm. While I understand that there is a transition taking place to new and different schemes and what he projects is certainly possible, I do think that the new offense will earn us an avg of at least 4 more pts/gm and the pressure defense could very well reduce opponents scores by an avg of 7 pts/gm.

That isn't what I see that we need, which is at least 7 more pts/gm and allowing at least 7 less/gm, but it is progress, especially with an offense and a defense that Morris didn't recruit.

There really shouldn't be any reason to win fewer than 6 this coming season. If Morris knows something that we don't (having been up close and personal with this team since January) then maybe we do better than that. There is a real possibility of 7 wins this next season. It just depends on the level of buy-in, commitment, coaching prowess (Practice, Preparation and Game Planning) and then in-game adjustments that we see from this staff and this team. We will see in time. JMO
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LRRandy

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #125 on: June 21, 2018, 08:17:46 pm »

Getting back to the original topic of conversation, it is worth noting what Bill Connelly projected for Arkansas in past years.

Coming into the 2016 season and largely because of what he saw returning from 2015, Connelly projected that the Hogs would score 32.7 pts/gm in 2016 and allow 22.9 p/gm on defense. What we actually scored was an avg of 30.3 and took a dive in points allowed to 31.7/gm.

Coming into the 2017 season Connelly projected that we would score an avg of 29.9/gm and allow 32.8/gm. We actually averaged 28.8/gm and allowed an average of 36.2/gm. Really, a complete meltdown for the most part, though just scoring 7 more/gm and allowing 7 less/gm would have produced 7 wins in the regular season. I believe that a downturn in coaching and keeping the team focused and goal oriented caused significant problems with last years team.

This year his projection is that we score an avg of 28.4/gm and allow an avg of 37.3/gm. While I understand that there is a transition taking place to new and different schemes and what he projects is certainly possible, I do think that the new offense will earn us an avg of at least 4 more pts/gm and the pressure defense could very well reduce opponents scores by an avg of 7 pts/gm.

That isn't what I see that we need, which is at least 7 more pts/gm and allowing at least 7 less/gm, but it is progress, especially with an offense and a defense that Morris didn't recruit.

There really shouldn't be any reason to win fewer than 6 this coming season. If Morris knows something that we don't (having been up close and personal with this team since January) then maybe we do better than that. There is a real possibility of 7 wins this next season. It just depends on the level of buy-in, commitment, coaching prowess (Practice, Preparation and Game Planning) and then in-game adjustments that we see from this staff and this team. We will see in time. JMO
so you are saying that based on the trend of the team giving up more points a game than he projected, the defense is going to give up 40 points a game.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #126 on: June 21, 2018, 08:21:14 pm »

so you are saying that based on the trend of the team giving up more points a game than he projected, the defense is going to give up 40 points a game.

Unless you read something different than I posted, no. But then, you already knew that from reading the 4th paragraph, provided you actually read it.
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LRRandy

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #127 on: June 21, 2018, 08:30:10 pm »

Unless you read something different than I posted, no. But then, you already knew that from reading the 4th paragraph, provided you actually read it.
I thought you were pointing out that the hogs did worse than he projected in points allowed. He obviously is trying not to be off again by predicting more points allowed than his previous predictions.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #128 on: June 21, 2018, 08:45:53 pm »

I thought you were pointing out that the hogs did worse than he projected in points allowed. He obviously is trying not to be off again by predicting more points allowed than his previous predictions.

I was pointing out the inaccuracy based on returning offensive and defensive production. It's difficult to say what will occur with a changes in schemes on both sides of the ball, but I do know that even in Morris' first year at SMU that rushing attempts went up by 39% while rushing yards went up by 64% and while passing attempts went down by 15%, completions only went down by 11.7% while passing yards went up by 29.4% while passing TD's increased from 6 to 19.

I believe that Morris will improve the productivity of our offense this season. I also believe that fans will be very entertained by the greater pressure that a Chavis defense is schemed to bring. What I don't know is how good our Secondary will play with greater pressure being applied up front and them having to play more man coverage. If they respond better than last year, we will have something to work with. I think 6-7 wins this season with a renewed commitment by the team members is entirely possible, maybe even another win on top of that. We will see.
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LRRandy

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #129 on: June 21, 2018, 08:54:07 pm »

I was pointing out the inaccuracy based on returning offensive and defensive production. It's difficult to say what will occur with a changes in schemes on both sides of the ball, but I do know that even in Morris' first year at SMU that rushing attempts went up by 39% while rushing yards went up by 64% and while passing attempts went down by 15%, completions only went down by 11.7% while passing yards went up by 29.4% while passing TD's increased from 6 to 19.

I believe that Morris will improve the productivity of our offense this season. I also believe that fans will be very entertained by the greater pressure that a Chavis defense is schemed to bring. What I don't know is how good our Secondary will play with greater pressure being applied up front and them having to play more man coverage. If they respond better than last year, we will have something to work with. I think 6-7 wins this season with a renewed commitment by the team members is entirely possible, maybe even another win on top of that. We will see.
I look forward to an improved exciting offense as well.
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widespreadsooie

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #130 on: June 22, 2018, 05:14:21 pm »

Is that really a word?

Yeah. Why don't you google it? Probably because you assumed it wasn't and thought you had a clever jab.
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nwahogfan1

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #131 on: June 22, 2018, 06:09:59 pm »

If you bet 6 wins and it is a push don't you lose?  So to win you have to bet over and we win 7.  Right?
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nwahogfan1

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #132 on: June 22, 2018, 06:18:36 pm »

Some are predicting 8 wins.  Lol.  How many times in the last 10 years have we won 8 games?  I am guessing under 4. 
8 wins is beating 4 SEC teams with new coaches and schemes.  Good luck.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #133 on: June 23, 2018, 09:04:33 am »

Some are predicting 8 wins.  Lol.  How many times in the last 10 years have we won 8 games?  I am guessing under 4. 
8 wins is beating 4 SEC teams with new coaches and schemes.  Good luck.

Winning 8 regular season games is possible but I'm sticking with my 6 regular season wins prediction.
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gawntrail

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #134 on: June 23, 2018, 02:44:30 pm »

7-5 season.

Win upper mid tier bowl to go 8-5.

Bundle of my daily smokes on the over.
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HoginMemphis

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #135 on: June 23, 2018, 06:03:39 pm »

7-5 season.

Win upper mid tier bowl to go 8-5.

Bundle of my daily smokes on the over.
Lol! I do not want any of what you are drinking.
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Salted Pork

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #136 on: June 24, 2018, 11:45:44 am »

All ya'll thinking we'll win 7-8-9 games this season are wearing some serious prescription rose-colored glasses.
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HoginMemphis

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #137 on: June 24, 2018, 11:58:18 am »

All ya'll thinking we'll win 7-8-9 games this season are wearing some serious prescription rose-colored glasses.
Yep. It will be a fantastic, over-achieving year if they win 6.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #138 on: June 24, 2018, 12:07:34 pm »

All ya'll thinking we'll win 7-8-9 games this season are wearing some serious prescription rose-colored glasses.

And yíall predicting less than 6 wins arenít thinking through this very well.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #139 on: June 24, 2018, 12:11:40 pm »

And y’all predicting less than 6 wins aren’t thinking through this very well.

I totally agree.
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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #140 on: June 24, 2018, 03:32:51 pm »

And yíall predicting less than 6 wins arenít thinking through this very well.

In that case, I revise my season prediction from earlier in this thread

E Illinois:  W
Co State: W
North Tx: W
Auburn:    W
TX A&M:  W
Alabama:  W
Ole Miss:  W
Tulsa:      W
Vandy:     W
LSU:        W
Miss St:    W
Missouri:   W

Hooray, all is well again!
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #141 on: June 24, 2018, 05:03:23 pm »

In that case, I revise my season prediction from earlier in this thread

E Illinois:  W
Co State: W
North Tx: W
Auburn:    W
TX A&M:  W
Alabama:  W
Ole Miss:  W
Tulsa:      W
Vandy:     W
LSU:        W
Miss St:    W
Missouri:   W

Hooray, all is well again!

Let's not get carried away.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #142 on: June 24, 2018, 10:23:19 pm »

In that case, I revise my season prediction from earlier in this thread

E Illinois:  W
Co State: W
North Tx: W
Auburn:    W
TX A&M:  W
Alabama:  W
Ole Miss:  W
Tulsa:      W
Vandy:     W
LSU:        W
Miss St:    W
Missouri:   W

Hooray, all is well again!

That took a lot of thought.
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CryHavoc

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #143 on: June 25, 2018, 04:54:03 am »

And yíall predicting less than 6 wins arenít thinking through this very well.

No, we are being realists, not sunshine pumpers.
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #144 on: June 25, 2018, 07:28:36 am »

No, we are being realists, not sunshine pumpers.

The realists, like myself, are predicting 6 wins.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #145 on: June 25, 2018, 07:52:30 am »

No, we are being realists, not sunshine pumpers.

Donít the realists like to point to recruiting rankings as the reason for Arkansasís SEC woes?

Check Arkansasís recruiting rankings vs. its 4 OOC opponents. CSU?  81 average over last four years. CSU ranks 130 in returning production - dead last in FBS. Arkansas returns 17 starters, the most since 2010. Oh yeah, that altitude thing will kill us. If any OOC team has a shot itís Tulsa, but they wonít beat Arkansas.

Arkansas also has comparative recruiting ranking advantages over Vanderbilt and Missouri. That hasnít helped much against Missouri, but we arenít going to lose to Vanderbilt. We arenít going to lose at home to Ole Miss. Weíll win one or two of the remaining games on the schedule. Iíve already told you knuckleheads why. But hereís another reason:

Arkansas was ranked five straight weeks in 2016 heading into the Auburn game, when they were 17th. No one seems to be quite clear what happened there, but thatís the first time we saw the cracks become a chasm. The problems since werenít a talent issue. Arkansas is full of thoroughbreds with something to prove. Those who think this team went from very good to cellar dweller in a year and a half are in for a rude awakening or a pleasant surprise.
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gawntrail

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #146 on: June 25, 2018, 09:33:51 am »

No, we are being realists, not sunshine pumpers.

Not pumping sunshine.  I believe we catch a few breaks and we capitalize.  Thatís all. 
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GuvHog

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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #147 on: June 25, 2018, 01:27:39 pm »

Don’t the realists like to point to recruiting rankings as the reason for Arkansas’s SEC woes?

Check Arkansas’s recruiting rankings vs. its 4 OOC opponents. CSU?  81 average over last four years. CSU ranks 130 in returning production - dead last in FBS. Arkansas returns 17 starters, the most since 2010. Oh yeah, that altitude thing will kill us. If any OOC team has a shot it’s Tulsa, but they won’t beat Arkansas.

Arkansas also has comparative recruiting ranking advantages over Vanderbilt and Missouri. That hasn’t helped much against Missouri, but we aren’t going to lose to Vanderbilt. We aren’t going to lose at home to Ole Miss. We’ll win one or two of the remaining games on the schedule. I’ve already told you knuckleheads why. But here’s another reason:

Arkansas was ranked five straight weeks in 2016 heading into the Auburn game, when they were 17th. No one seems to be quite clear what happened there, but that’s the first time we saw the cracks become a chasm. The problems since weren’t a talent issue. Arkansas is full of thoroughbreds with something to prove. Those who think this team went from very good to cellar dweller in a year and a half are in for a rude awakening or a pleasant surprise.

100% agree. The reason for the disaster the last 2 years was not lack of talent, it was HORRIBLE coaching.


I can point out 3 games on last year's schedule that the Hogs lost solely because of horrible coaching. They were:

(1) Texas A&M

(2) Mississippi State

(3) Missouri


The Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss games were also much closer than they should have been because of that same horrible coaching.

That was a 7-5 team last year that finished 4-8 solely because of horrible coaching.
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Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #148 on: June 25, 2018, 01:47:45 pm »

If LSU only wins 7 games....ole boy will be the the hottest of seats...
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HotlantaHog

Re: Vegas puts O/U at 6 wins
« Reply #149 on: June 25, 2018, 01:49:45 pm »

Not that it matters, but almost everyone who was making predictions about Arkansas a year ago got it wrong, including all of Hogville and me (I think I was looking for 8 wins but maybe more.)
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