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Author Topic: SEC Bubble Teams  (Read 1454 times)

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nesjunk

SEC Bubble Teams
« on: May 13, 2018, 04:57:44 pm »

A couple of games are not final yet, but the race to the NCAAT for those ringing up the rear in the SEC is quite the quagmire with one series to go.

If you like RPI, LSU is the odd man out.  With Missouri, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Vanderbilt all around 40 or better, LSU is clearly well back in the 50s.

If you like conference record, Missouri and Mississippi State have issues.  The northern Tigers have only 10 SEC wins while LSU will have 14 by the end of the day.  That will likely tighten next weekend, but barring sweeps, it won't change a lot.  Mississippi State has a similar problem with only 12 wins and #1 Florida waiting in the wings.

Finally, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are dangerously close to .500 on the season.  I've got to admit I'm a little fuzzy on the rules here.  Must you be .500 or better to receive a bid?  If either team is swept next weekend and goes 0-2 in the SECT, that's a problem.

Does the SEC get 11?  Or even 12?  Unlikely.  Someone will not be happy.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 05:21:03 pm by nesjunk »
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southarkhog06

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Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2018, 05:32:13 pm »

LSU is never the odd man out. Whatever mental gymnastics the committee has to do, LSU will be in the tourney.

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BroyledNutts

Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2018, 05:53:16 pm »

In my crusty old opinion only ...
First thing is to make the SECT ... miss that and you're almost assured not to make the field of 64 ...
Twelve teams make the SECT ... Right now Bama is out ... that leaves Tenner, Vandy, MSU, and Missouri fighting for the last spot ... Mississippi State is the most likely candidate to miss Hoover, being right on the break line and facing Florida next weekend.

In addition to Bama and MSU not making the 64, Mizzou and A&M are likely on the outside looking in ... Tennessee could also be placed in this group ... Vandy and LSU are fighting for their lives right now ... it would very LSU of the Tigers to make an unexpected run in Hoover and wind up with a host spot ... NCAA loves them some Red Stick in June ...

10, possibly 11 SEC teams should get in the 64, but 4 or 5 of them could be 2 or 3 seeds ... RPI, SOS, and Matrix scoring will play heavy for the NCAAs ...
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Razrpig256

Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2018, 06:14:20 pm »

A lot of teams still have work to do, but here's who I think ultimately gets in:

Locks:
Florida
Georgia
USC
Arkansas
Ole Miss

Not technically locks, but probably get in:
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
LSU
Auburn
Texas A&M

Auburn and Kentucky would have to try fairly hard, but any of the others could easily play their way out.
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tennesseehogwild

Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2018, 06:33:16 pm »

I think Kentucky, Auburn, and A&M are in. And you know LSU is in.....somehow! I will say we get 9 in at least.
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nesjunk

Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2018, 06:35:27 pm »

It looks like a lot of you think conference standings are the most important metric.  I'm not so sure.  With the difference in SOS even within a conference, not to mention the way home vs. road series breakdown, I don't think the selection committee puts as much stock in that as they once did. 

We will learn a lot from this season's selection.  If LSU gets in, then RPI is a worthless metric.  If they get in ahead of South Carolina, a team that swept them, something is seriously wrong.
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Razrpig256

Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2018, 06:39:51 pm »

It looks like a lot of you think conference standings are the most important metric.  I'm not so sure.  With the difference in SOS even within a conference, not to mention the way home vs. road series breakdown, I don't think the selection committee puts as much stock in that as they once did. 

We will learn a lot from this season's selection.  If LSU gets in, then RPI is a worthless metric.  If they get in ahead of South Carolina, a team that swept them, something is seriously wrong.

I don't see any way USC gets left out with 15 SEC wins (and a chance at more). I don't think it's ever happened but I could be wrong. It would be rare.
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Hog Fan...DOH!

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Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2018, 08:18:10 pm »

LSU is never the odd man out. Whatever mental gymnastics the committee has to do, LSU will be in the tourney.

They'll probably get a #3 seed to somewhere like Houston or Hattiesburg.  You know, a real "tough" trip.
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nesjunk

Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2018, 10:36:03 am »

The latest from Boyd's World suggests the following is necessary for each of these teams to get into the Top 45 RPI:

#35 Mississippi State - Nothing.  They could lose all 3 to Florida next weekend and still be in the Top 45.
#36 Missouri - Win 3 of remaining 4 games (Indiana State, Tennessee - all at home)
#38 Vanderbilt - Win 2 of remaining 4 games (Middle Tennessee, Kentucky - all at home)
#40 South Carolina - Win 2 of remaining 4 games (South Carolina Upstate, @ Texas A&M)
#50 LSU - Win 2 of remaining 4 games (Northwestern State, @ Auburn)

Oddly, none of these are exclusive.  Technically, they could all be successful according to this metric.

#72 Tennessee and #82 Alabama cannot get into the Top 45 no matter how they finish (not counting the SECT).  All of the remaining SEC teams are solidly in the Top 20 in RPI.  It looks like a lot of SEC ballparks will be in action for Regionals.
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bhogs05

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Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2018, 11:23:43 am »

LSU will probably be in and probably host for some unspoken reason..kidding on hosting,  but in all seriousness LSU will be in just b/c of their name. And knowing them they will probably do well in the SEC tourney like they do every year.
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dotnet

Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2018, 11:44:38 am »

LSU was left out a few years ago with a 40 something RPI I believe. 
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DiamondHogFan

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Re: SEC Bubble Teams
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2018, 02:29:42 pm »

I don't see any way USC gets left out with 15 SEC wins (and a chance at more). I don't think it's ever happened but I could be wrong. It would be rare.
Yeah, top 40 rpi and .500 or better in SEC will always be in the NCAA tournament.  USC is pretty safe I would imagine unless they lose all 4 of their games this week and their RPI just falls drastically.
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