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Author Topic: Explaining why I think we win more than expected  (Read 6803 times)

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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #50 on: May 07, 2018, 07:18:50 pm »

How many wins should have been loses the last 2 years? That stat is a wash for me 



I don't think anything this team has or hasn't done in he past is irrelevant because it's a whole new system.


5-7.


But we will be fun to watch by mid October and have some optimism heading into 2019.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #51 on: May 07, 2018, 07:47:44 pm »

How many wins should have been loses the last 2 years? That stat is a wash for me 



I don't think anything this team has or hasn't done in he past is irrelevant because it's a whole new system.


5-7.


But we will be fun to watch by mid October and have some optimism heading into 2019.


The mental aspect also plays into close wins that shouldn't have been close. It also factors into wins that we shouldn't have had, though in a different way. We've not had nearly as many of those over the last two seasons as the ones that we shouldn't have lost.

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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #52 on: May 07, 2018, 07:51:47 pm »

The mental aspect also plays into close wins that shouldn't have been close. It also factors into wins that we shouldn't have had, though in a different way. We've not had nearly as many of those over the last two seasons as the ones that we shouldn't have lost.


I dont know. I can think of a few. Costal Carolina. Ole Miss the last few years. La tech. TCU at TCU.  Those are just the ones that come to mind quickly

I agree the mental toughness wasn't there the past few seasons, but the games we should have won wash out with the games we should have lost.
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GuvHog

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #53 on: May 08, 2018, 07:10:25 am »


I dont know. I can think of a few. Costal Carolina. Ole Miss the last few years. La tech. TCU at TCU.  Those are just the ones that come to mind quickly

I agree the mental toughness wasn't there the past few seasons, but the games we should have won wash out with the games we should have lost.

There were a lot of weird happenings the last 4 years. Ole Miss, for example, was 2-2 against Bama but they were 0-4 against Arkansas. That's a real head scratcher and one of the reasons I'm picking the Hogs to beat the Rebels in WMS this year.

rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #54 on: May 08, 2018, 07:28:43 am »

There were a lot of weird happenings the last 4 years. Ole Miss, for example, was 2-2 against Bama but they were 0-4 against Arkansas. That's a real head scratcher and one of the reasons I'm picking the Hogs to beat the Rebels in WMS this year.


Foe sure. Lot of weird things, especially for Arkansas under Bielema.
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NaturalStateReb

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #55 on: May 08, 2018, 09:21:03 am »

You mean the guy that led us to a win AT Ole Miss isn't very good in your opinion? Aren't you glad we didn't play Ole Miss with a "good" QB???

No.  He's not very good. 
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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #56 on: May 08, 2018, 09:23:12 am »

No.  He's not very good.

You have no genuine idea what Kelley will look like in this new system should he be the starter. None of us do. History shows a lot of "not very good" QBs have thrived in a certain system.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #57 on: May 08, 2018, 10:24:45 am »

There were a lot of weird happenings the last 4 years. Ole Miss, for example, was 2-2 against Bama but they were 0-4 against Arkansas. That's a real head scratcher and one of the reasons I'm picking the Hogs to beat the Rebels in WMS this year.

You can only get up for so many games.  It would be interesting to look at who they played before and who they had after.
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niels_boar

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #58 on: May 08, 2018, 11:32:50 am »

They may not have been an all-time great collection of football minds, but I doubt the previous staff was the complete set of idiots that many believe.  That leaves two possibilities for the complete collapse last season - severe talent deficiencies and injuries.  I think it is safe to say that personnel had some problems on the O-line when we had to start a true frosh on opening day that didn't step on to campus as a sure-fire future NFL lineman.  Different coaching and conditioning may resurrect some players, but it's difficult to believe that the unit can rebound from last season in a completely new system without a first-round draft choice and be much improved.  The new offense may, however, may be able to spackle over the cracks better than last season's, but that hinges on difference making at QB.  We don't know how the QBs will look in the new offense either.   Any optimism for a truly surprising season from my point of view rests on injuries, especially on defense, being a much bigger part of the equation last season than many wanted to admit and one of the QBs looking awesome.  I hope that I'm ecstatically shocked, but I would put my money on a massive rebuild. I'm not going to panic about the new staff if that is the case.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2018, 03:09:23 pm by niels_boar »
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razorbackfaninar

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #59 on: May 08, 2018, 11:52:22 am »

They may not have been an all-time great collection of football minds, but I doubt the previous staff was the complete set of idiots that many believe.  That leaves two possibilities for the complete collapse last season - severe talent deficiencies and injuries.  I think it is safe to say that personnel had some problems on the O-line when we had to start a true frosh on opening day that didn't step on to campus as a sure-fire future NFL linemen.  Different coaching and conditioning may resurrect some players, but it's difficult to believe that the unit can rebound from last season in a completely new system without a first-round draft choice and be much improved.  The new offense may, however, may be able to spackle over the cracks better than last season's, but that hinges on difference making at QB.  We don't know how the QBs will look in the new offense either.   Any optimism for a truly surprising season from my point of view rests on injuries, especially on defense, being a much bigger part of the equation last season than many wanted to admit and one of the QBs looking awesome.  I hope I'm ecstatically shocked, but I would put my money on a massive rebuild. I'm not going to panic about the new staff if that is the case.

I think a lot of the issues last year hinged on what the players were being asked to do.  I think we were less equipped for doing what Bielema wanted to do than either he realized or wanted to to admit.  I don't think that we will win 9 games or anything this year, but I think we will see significant improvement in a number of areas, with the O-line being one of them simply because of the different things they will be asked to do.  An athlete is going to be more successful if he is used in a way that maximizes his talents.  If I buy a 150,000 dollar Ferrari I have a very fast car, but if what I need to do is get to my back pasture to check my cows after a week of rain, it isn't going to do me as much good as a $3,500 used Toyota pickup truck.  I think maybe last year what we wanted to do was check our back pasture, but we wouldn't admit that the car we were in wasn't suited for it so we just kept trying to drive a street car through the mud and getting nowhere.

I think that people are putting a lot of hope in the idea that Morris is going to mold his scheme around his players and not the other way around.

lakecityhog

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2018, 12:04:36 pm »

I agree, the assistant coaches were good at their jobs for the most part. What happens is that the assistants tend to take on the attitude of the HC and eventually it slides down to the players.

BB seemed to have developed a defeatist attitude, just waiting for something bad to happen. And, it usually did. He just didn't know how to respond under duress and that led to the assistant coaches failing to respond and eventually the players.

Nutt may have not been the best X&O guy, but he did know how to rally the troops and sometimes that is enough. His personality carried over to his coaches and to the players and his raw enthusiasm was enough to carry them against the lesser opponents.

My hope is that Morris has the X&O capability to out-scheme some teams, the enthusiasm to beat the lesser teams and the salesmanship to build a stronger roster.

DeltaBoy

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2018, 12:05:44 pm »

We will see how it plays out .
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #62 on: May 08, 2018, 12:27:35 pm »

I think a lot of the issues last year hinged on what the players were being asked to do.  I think we were less equipped for doing what Bielema wanted to do than either he realized or wanted to to admit.  I don't think that we will win 9 games or anything this year, but I think we will see significant improvement in a number of areas, with the O-line being one of them simply because of the different things they will be asked to do.  An athlete is going to be more successful if he is used in a way that maximizes his talents.  If I buy a 150,000 dollar Ferrari I have a very fast car, but if what I need to do is get to my back pasture to check my cows after a week of rain, it isn't going to do me as much good as a $3,500 used Toyota pickup truck.  I think maybe last year what we wanted to do was check our back pasture, but we wouldn't admit that the car we were in wasn't suited for it so we just kept trying to drive a street car through the mud and getting nowhere.

I think that people are putting a lot of hope in the idea that Morris is going to mold his scheme around his players and not the other way around.



Beliema didn't know what he wanted to do. That was a problem. We had no identity.

NaturalStateReb

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #63 on: May 08, 2018, 01:54:22 pm »

You have no genuine idea what Kelley will look like in this new system should he be the starter. None of us do. History shows a lot of "not very good" QBs have thrived in a certain system.

I know he'll look like a guy that's too big with a bullet in his leg.  The system can certainly contain the flaws and help his numbers, but it can't make him more than he is, talent-wise.  Bo Wallace was a perfect example--he could do ok in the system, but at the end of the day he was a QB that had a Sun Belt head stitched to an SEC arm.

I'd rather expect too little from Kelley and be pleasantly surprised than expect too much too quickly and be disappointed.

NaturalStateReb

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #64 on: May 08, 2018, 01:55:55 pm »



Beliema didn't know what he wanted to do. That was a problem. We had no identity.

He knew what he wanted to do.  He couldn't get those guys, so he tried to another way, and couldn't get those guys, either. 

Bielema's a good coach, but he couldn't assemble the talent in this environment for whatever reason.  Not every guy, even a good guy, is for every job.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #65 on: May 08, 2018, 02:05:13 pm »

He knew what he wanted to do.  He couldn't get those guys, so he tried to another way, and couldn't get those guys, either. 

Bielema's a good coach, but he couldn't assemble the talent in this environment for whatever reason.  Not every guy, even a good guy, is for every job.


He did not know what he wanted to do here. The team reflected that. He was in over his head.

LZH

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #66 on: May 08, 2018, 02:07:23 pm »

I agree with whoever said when Pittman left, BB's days were numbered.

RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #67 on: May 08, 2018, 02:14:39 pm »


He did not know what he wanted to do here. The team reflected that. He was in over his head.

I agree. I think his assistants knew what they wanted to do, but Bielema choked the life out of them.

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #68 on: May 08, 2018, 03:35:15 pm »

I know he'll look like a guy that's too big with a bullet in his leg.  The system can certainly contain the flaws and help his numbers, but it can't make him more than he is, talent-wise.  Bo Wallace was a perfect example--he could do ok in the system, but at the end of the day he was a QB that had a Sun Belt head stitched to an SEC arm.

I'd rather expect too little from Kelley and be pleasantly surprised than expect too much too quickly and be disappointed.

I respectfully disagree. I believe Kelley will be a solid QB. He won't be a world beater by any means, but he'll be good enough to move the team up and down the field and score points. He'll run the offense efficiently and won't make silly mistakes that would get the Hogs beaten but I don't expect him to look like an All American Elite QB.

Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #69 on: May 08, 2018, 04:39:58 pm »

You guys are all over the place.  Itís got to be simpler than that!
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12247

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #70 on: May 08, 2018, 07:22:24 pm »

Here are my beliefs:
Muskogee is explaining it the way it is likely to be in terms most can understand.
Chad Morris, in his energy enhanced eagerness to keep the pedal to the metal and keep the foot on the neck, will lose one for us that anyone remotely understanding football will know should not have happened.  Every drunk on Hogville will demand he be fired immediately.

As for our team, the Mental part of the game is where we have all walk ons and 1 stars.  These Guys have been sent to battle under conditioned, under trained, wrongly trained, confused, and out of position in many cases, for several years.  If Morris and Company can overcome most of that, then they can start finding out if any of these folks have talent.  I believe if the mental aspect can get corrected, conditioning handled, then the art of using the talent we have to play football may come to the front.  Barring bad injuries, I feel we have 6 or 7 win talent on this team.  Throw in some luck and we could win 8 but not likely.  There is not an SEC team that couldn't beat us and there is likely 4 or 5 we simply could not beat. 
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rtr

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #71 on: May 08, 2018, 11:28:15 pm »

How many wins should have been loses the last 2 years? That stat is a wash for me 



I don't think anything this team has or hasn't done in he past is irrelevant because it's a whole new system.


5-7.


But we will be fun to watch by mid October and have some optimism heading into 2019.

But blown leads in the second half is not a worthless statistic to me.  It is pretty big.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #72 on: May 09, 2018, 07:20:11 am »

But blown leads in the second half is not a worthless statistic to me.  It is pretty big.


Never said it was worthless. Just that the should have won and should have lost games even out.


I dont recall any half time leads that were blown last year though. Maybe A&M?

So I'm not sure what a team did in the 2016 season will have much bearing on 2018.


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sigpooie

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #73 on: May 09, 2018, 08:01:34 am »

All you have to do is remember what it was like for the 10 games that Malzhan and coached us then remember what it was like for the 15 to 20 games that Petrino coached us we now have a coach again enjoy
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oldhawg

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #74 on: May 09, 2018, 08:31:06 am »


 Just that the should have won and should have lost games even out.


I don't totally agree with this statement. 

IMO about half the games Arkansas plays are toss-ups going into the games.  A well-coached, well-conditioned, well-prepared Razorback team (any well-coached team for that matter) will win more than half of those toss-up games.  By the same reasoning, only an occasional "should have won game" will be lost.  It won't be an annual affair.  On the other hand (using the same preparation criteria as cited above), the team stands a chance every year of winning at least one "should have lost " game.

Bret Bielema coached teams did not exhibit characteristics of being well-coached, well-conditioned, or well-prepared.  With the same type of athletes, the right coach can win more.  Examples: Bobby Petrino and (bite my tongue) even Houston Nutt. 
« Last Edit: May 09, 2018, 05:38:51 pm by oldhawg »
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #75 on: May 09, 2018, 08:45:24 am »

I don't totally agree with this statement. 

IMO about half the games Arkansas plays are toss-ups going into the games.  A well-coached, well-conditioned, well-prepared Razorback team (any well-coached team for that matter) will win more than half of those toss-up games.  By the same reasoning, only an occasional "should have one game" will be lost.  It won't be an annual affair.  On the other hand (using the same preparation criteria as cited above), the team stands a chance every year of winning at least one "should have lost " game.

Bret Bielema coached teams did not exhibit characteristics of being well-coached, well-conditioned, or well-prepared.  With the same type of athletes, the right coach can win more.  Examples: Bobby Petrino and (bite my tongue) even Houston Nutt. 


I'm not sticking up for Bret. I'm just saying If the arguement on us being better than expected this year hinges on some second half collapses that happened 2 seasons ago, or because of all the games we "should have won" I just don't think that is a strong argument.


Fans always like to romatizise the should have won games but never reflect on the ones where we should have lost or got lucky. Every fanbase does this. It's fun but it doesn't serve as a good indicator


No one has any idea what talent is or isn't on the team. In my opinion it's going to be a take your lumps and move on year.  Morris is going to have to recruit his players for his system before Arkansas can look forward to a good season again, in my opinion
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oldhawg

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #76 on: May 09, 2018, 10:21:34 am »


I'm not sticking up for Bret. I'm just saying If the arguement on us being better than expected this year hinges on some second half collapses that happened 2 seasons ago, or because of all the games we "should have won" I just don't think that is a strong argument.


Fans always like to romatizise the should have won games but never reflect on the ones where we should have lost or got lucky. Every fanbase does this. It's fun but it doesn't serve as a good indicator


No one has any idea what talent is or isn't on the team. In my opinion it's going to be a take your lumps and move on year.  Morris is going to have to recruit his players for his system before Arkansas can look forward to a good season again, in my opinion

Oh, I am not disagreeing with you regarding the upcoming season.  Hopes are higher than they should be, but my expectations are low.  IMO a six win season and subsequent bowl game would be a huge step in the right direction.  But more important are the unmeasurables and intangibles --- how well the team appears to be coached and conditioned, and mental approach.

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #77 on: May 09, 2018, 11:01:37 am »


I'm not sticking up for Bret. I'm just saying If the arguement on us being better than expected this year hinges on some second half collapses that happened 2 seasons ago, or because of all the games we "should have won" I just don't think that is a strong argument.


Fans always like to romatizise the should have won games but never reflect on the ones where we should have lost or got lucky. Every fanbase does this. It's fun but it doesn't serve as a good indicator


No one has any idea what talent is or isn't on the team. In my opinion it's going to be a take your lumps and move on year.  Morris is going to have to recruit his players for his system before Arkansas can look forward to a good season again, in my opinion

I think at this point the only hope that fans have to hang their hat on is that the team in it's current iteration was poorly coached or prepared or that the talent was misused in some way.  There may be some truth to it and to the fact that we had some key injuries last year of players who will be back.  But it's not like there was a huge influx of talent on signing day to help out, so in the immortal words of Donald Rumsfeld "We're going to war with the army we have not the army we wish we had".

rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #78 on: May 09, 2018, 05:12:02 pm »

I think at this point the only hope that fans have to hang their hat on is that the team in it's current iteration was poorly coached or prepared or that the talent was misused in some way.  There may be some truth to it and to the fact that we had some key injuries last year of players who will be back.  But it's not like there was a huge influx of talent on signing day to help out, so in the immortal words of Donald Rumsfeld "We're going to war with the army we have not the army we wish we had".


I agree but it's a fine line to walk


Not sure it's fair for Morris to expect him to win more than 6 games this year.

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #79 on: May 09, 2018, 07:23:41 pm »

I think at this point the only hope that fans have to hang their hat on is that the team in it's current iteration was poorly coached or prepared or that the talent was misused in some way.  There may be some truth to it and to the fact that we had some key injuries last year of players who will be back.  But it's not like there was a huge influx of talent on signing day to help out, so in the immortal words of Donald Rumsfeld "We're going to war with the army we have not the army we wish we had".

I don't disagree that we are at a talent disadvantage compared to over half of our SEC West opponents, but that has usually been the case over the years and still we have found ways (at times) to win more than expected and against more talented teams overall. But going back to what I mentioned earlier in this thread, a team isn't going to have a chance to overcome and win at higher levels against more talented teams if they don't have a fire in their bellies and truly believe that, despite playing more talented teams (by virtue of recruiting rankings), that they can not only compete but actually win. If they don't believe that, they won't, even with a more talented team.

Melt downs in the second half of games and blowing leads are classic examples of this. Most higher level P-5 teams aren't going to come out in the second half when they are behind and just lay down and take it on the chin. They are going to fire back and if they have some success, you have to be able to dish it right back out to them and block the building of momentum. If you don't, you not only get your arse handed to you in the second half, but worse, your team suffers a mental defeat which is far more damaging for the long term than a physical defeat.

That's why I say that the biggest challenge that Morris will face with this team is not the difference in talent levels or the execution on offense, defense or the kicking game, but rather in transitioning the mental attitude of the team to one that believes that no matter what, they can always find a way to win. If he can find a way to build that attitude, this team has the potential to win more than many expect. If he can't, they may only be a little better, if any better, than last season. But that's JMO.

Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #80 on: May 09, 2018, 07:56:55 pm »

I don't disagree that we are at a talent disadvantage compared to over half of our SEC West opponents, but that has usually been the case over the years and still we have found ways (at times) to win more than expected and against more talented teams overall. But going back to what I mentioned earlier in this thread, a team isn't going to have a chance to overcome and win at higher levels against more talented teams if they don't have a fire in their bellies and truly believe that, despite playing more talented teams (by virtue of recruiting rankings), that they can not only compete but actually win. If they don't believe that, they won't, even with a more talented team.

Melt downs in the second half of games and blowing leads are classic examples of this. Most higher level P-5 teams aren't going to come out in the second half when they are behind and just lay down and take it on the chin. They are going to fire back and if they have some success, you have to be able to dish it right back out to them and block the building of momentum. If you don't, you not only get your arse handed to you in the second half, but worse, your team suffers a mental defeat which is far more damaging for the long term than a physical defeat.

That's why I say that the biggest challenge that Morris will face with this team is not the difference in talent levels or the execution on offense, defense or the kicking game, but rather in transitioning the mental attitude of the team to one that believes that no matter what, they can always find a way to win. If he can find a way to build that attitude, this team has the potential to win more than many expect. If he can't, they may only be a little better, if any better, than last season. But that's JMO.

Simple as having good leadership on the team.  For all the academics BB recruited you would think a few would have been leaders on the field.  Maybe they will one day be leaders but I donít think they remained committed to football enough to be the right kind of leaders on the field.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #81 on: May 09, 2018, 08:03:13 pm »

Simple as having good leadership on the team.  For all the academics BB recruited you would think a few would have been leaders on the field.  Maybe they will one day be leaders but I donít think they remained committed to football enough to be the right kind of leaders on the field.

Academics have nothing to do with this.
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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #82 on: May 09, 2018, 08:08:55 pm »

Academics have nothing to do with this.

Sorry but the way academics were used to recruit the team has a lot to do with this. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #83 on: May 09, 2018, 08:16:48 pm »

Sorry but the way academics were used to recruit the team has a lot to do with this. 

Sorry, no. Quality Academics and being good students has nothing to do with losing confidence in yourself and your team on the field. And, you know that. It's just another shot a Bielema. Let it go. It was a bad experience on the field and he is gone. The only thing left for Morris to overcome from what Bielema left for him is his ability to restore the confidence of the team when on the field.

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #84 on: May 09, 2018, 08:22:18 pm »

Sorry, no. Quality Academics and being good students has nothing to do with losing confidence in yourself and your team on the field. And, you know that. It's just another shot a Bielema. Let it go. It was a bad experience on the field and he is gone. The only thing left for Morris to overcome from what Bielema left for him is his ability to restore the confidence of the team when on the field.

Well you will continue to not understand the problem until there isnít a problem because CCM recruits football players and/or weeds out the ones who arenít.  Leadership is the issue and leaders need to be football players.  Name the great upperclassmen leaders we had on the team the last two/three years.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #85 on: May 09, 2018, 08:31:36 pm »

Well you will continue to not understand the problem until there isnít a problem because CCM recruits football players and/or weeds out the ones who arenít.  Leadership is the issue and leaders need to be football players.  Name the great upperclassmen leaders we had on the team the last two/three years.

Which again, has zero to do with classroom performance. You can have leaders on the field who perform less well in the classroom. You can also have student athletes who perform very well in the classroom, but who tend to perform less well as leaders on the field. If your gripe is that Bielema didn't recruit marginal qualifiers who might have been better athletes on the field, you may be right. You made an issue of classroom performance as if it equated (or should) to leadership (or performance) on the field. That's just not always the case.
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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #86 on: May 10, 2018, 07:15:44 am »

Which again, has zero to do with classroom performance. You can have leaders on the field who perform less well in the classroom. You can also have student athletes who perform very well in the classroom, but who tend to perform less well as leaders on the field. If your gripe is that Bielema didn't recruit marginal qualifiers who might have been better athletes on the field, you may be right. You made an issue of classroom performance as if it equated (or should) to leadership (or performance) on the field. That's just not always the case.

Itís not always the case but it had a lot to do with this case.   Unfortunately Itís harder for Arkansas to recruit both the top athlete and the top student in the same body.  Never in the history of Arkansas football have we done so.  Now that problem might be similar to the question ďhow do we close the gapĒ. And I feel that was what Long and Bielema set out to do.  It didnít work and it didnít work because youíve got to do something on the field before you can make that leap.  No elite football school started out by pushing academics.  I realize things have changed and academics are being pushed more by the NCAA but itís small steps not giant leaps.  We have got to win on the field.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #87 on: May 10, 2018, 07:20:16 am »

Bielema recruited on the level every other Arkansas Coach recruited on so I'm not sure I get your point.
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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #88 on: May 10, 2018, 09:06:17 am »

Bielema recruited on the level every other Arkansas Coach recruited on so I'm not sure I get your point.

Bielema recruited his particular set of problems.  Yes the ranking numbers were as good or better but after three, four, five years in the system how many of those players didnít look the part.  How many were giving less than 100% to the program vs their academics.  These upperclassmen is where leadership is supposed to come from, my point is WERE we getting it. 

Look, I donít blame the players, we recruited them, Long and Bielema had a plan.  It didnít work so wait and see the new plan will include what we have always done.  Get the player and then work the academic support staffs butts off keeping them eligible.  You may not have the smartest players in the league but you have the hungriest and out of those you find the leaders that will bring fire and brimstone to the field.   

It makes me laugh that so many say we have a problem but very few actually understand what the problem is.  You can accurately blame Bielema but thatís only the surface problem and it gone.  Now we are talking about what it will take to win more than expected with the same players.  I answered that question in the 5th post, find leaders.

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bphi11ips

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #89 on: May 10, 2018, 09:06:52 am »

It’s not always the case but it had a lot to do with this case.   Unfortunately It’s harder for Arkansas to recruit both the top athlete and the top student in the same body.  Never in the history of Arkansas football have we done so.  Now that problem might be similar to the question “how do we close the gap”. And I feel that was what Long and Bielema set out to do.  It didn’t work and it didn’t work because you’ve got to do something on the field before you can make that leap.  No elite football school started out by pushing academics.  I realize things have changed and academics are being pushed more by the NCAA but it’s small steps not giant leaps.  We have got to win on the field.

This is a great post and raises good observations and questions.  Cinco puts his finger on the issue in his second and fourth sentences.  How does Arkansas emphasize academics and close the talent gap on the field?  Some would say we need to (1) move to another conference where competition is not as brutal as the SEC West and/or (2) use bagmen to attract elite athletes.  Neither is going to happen, so let's be real for a minute.

Frank Broyles was right when he said that Arkansas is probably seventh or eighth in the SEC overall.  That has not been true during the last 6 years, but over time it has been true, and it will be true again in the future.  Arkansas is simply not likely to win the SEC on a regular basis.  That doesn't mean it isn't the goal every year.  Nor does it mean that it won't ever happen again.

Much emphasis is placed on recruiting rankings.  That is a technology driven development of the 21st century.  But we don't need a weather vane to know which way the wind blows.  Arkansas recruited, relative to its competition, the same way before 2000 as it does now.  We have consistently been about 25 since recruiting became a year-round sport.  However, Arkansas has been to three SEC Championship games in 25 years, more than anyone but the Big Six of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU and Auburn.  Those are the only teams to have won the SEC since 1961 (Kentucky tied once in the 70's).

So, the question is not how we close the talent gap but how we get back to the championship game with the players willing to play for Arkansas?

First, most who are familiar with Arkansas agree that the Razorbacks' best years come when the team is loaded with great in-state talent.  The only control Arkansas has in that regard is to bring as much of that talent as possible to The Hill when it exists. 

Bobby Petrino was in the right place at the right time with in-state talent.  On the other hand, he also put that talent in position to succeed.  It was popular here to look back at Petrino's recruiting classes and re-rank them after the fact. Whether he won more with less is a question, but his record speaks for itself.

Bret Bielema seemed to adopt a Stanford-like approach to recruiting.  He went after highly ranked talent with great academic credentials.  He often swung and missed, as he did with Solomon Thomas.  But he definitely recruited some great student-athletes to a university with a rapidly increasing academic reputation.  Parents care about that.  The academic support and success of Arkansas's student athletes is a strong selling point.  Alums should be proud of it, and there is no need to abandon that approach.  Bielema also sold his ability to put players in the NFL.  By-and-large he followed through there.  His problem was not upper-end talent, it was depth and talent at every position.  The depth problem showed up in the second half of games and on special teams against SEC powers.  Did Bielema do less with more?  His record speaks for itself, and the answer is undoubtedly "Yes".

It is now Chad Morris's turn to deal with the stark reality that Arkansas will face a talent deficit in four or five games a year in the SEC.  How will he deal with the depth and special teams issues (I'm not talking about kickers).  Depth will depend in large part on conditioning.  As John Chavis said, games are won and lost in the offseason.  Arkansas must find a way to compete in the fourth quarter of games.  Where special teams are concerned, Arkansas will face 4 and 5 star athletes who are fresh on special teams when we play Alabama, LSU, Auburn and A&M.  If it were my team, I'd try and find a way to put my best athletes on special teams, especially in situations where the opponent has a dangerous weapon like Christian Kirk.  The problem with that approach relates back to depth.  For example, do you put a player with the speed and tackling skills of Randy Ramsey on the kickoff defense and punting units, or do you save his legs for the fourth quarter?  It's a Hobson's choice, but one that Chad Morris will probably consider.  Anyone who has watched SEC games for 40 or 50 years knows that the biggest games often come down to the fourth quarter and special teams. 

Arkansas will never be Stanford academically, but it can continue to strive for academic success in its student athlete population and use that as a selling point with players.  As Chad Morris has said, he has a lot to sell at the University of Arkansas.  But the truth is, no matter how well he recruits, he is likely to face three or four Top 10 recruiting programs every year, so he is going to have to always do more with less.  That is nothing new at Arkansas, but it has been done and can be done again.     

rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #90 on: May 10, 2018, 09:08:07 am »

I think you're making leaps of logic you don't have all the facts to




I think yall are buying way too much into the "uncommon" thing
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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #91 on: May 10, 2018, 09:19:01 am »

I think you're making leaps of logic you don't have all the facts to




I think yall are buying way too much into the "uncommon" thing

What would have made them uncommon was to continue their development in the football field throughout their four-five year career.  Now we are talking about the faults of the coaching staff to see that they did that.  I think the biggest thing we can hang our hopes on with this new staff is that they get at least 85 players to buy in to their program regardless of age or academics.
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ricepig

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #92 on: May 10, 2018, 09:43:49 am »

You need versatility in the defensive backfield. There are going to be injuries. It's very rare for a team to make it through a season without guys getting banged up. That's why depth is so critical.

And now our freshman CB's have a year of experience, although one is moving to SS. We may have a 6th year DB back, that's a lot of experience, but I bet the farm that some of the new guys have more talent, they just need some experience.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #93 on: May 10, 2018, 09:54:54 am »

What would have made them uncommon was to continue their development in the football field throughout their four-five year career.  Now we are talking about the faults of the coaching staff to see that they did that.  I think the biggest thing we can hang our hopes on with this new staff is that they get at least 85 players to buy in to their program regardless of age or academics.


I'm saying they didn't put as much of an emphasis on grades as you're trying to imply. They may have tried to have that perception, but they recruited the same athletes that past coaches have recruited to the UofA.
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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #94 on: May 10, 2018, 11:44:45 am »


I'm saying they didn't put as much of an emphasis on grades as you're trying to imply. They may have tried to have that perception, but they recruited the same athletes that past coaches have recruited to the UofA.

I think yaíll are trying to imply iím saying a bunch of players quit, thatís not what iím saying, what iím Saying is that there was a reduction in effort and in the SEC you canít afford that.  I am saying that some upperclassmen that could have/should have provided the leadership in certain aspects of the program werenít motivated to do that.  If white washing the problem is your way fine, iím just calling it the way I see it. 

Thatís why I said the team needs leaders and I hope CCM handpicked them based on their abilities in that area on the field not in the classroom.  Maybe itís happening right now in the off season.  One thing iím Pretty sure of is that CCM will have a different  criteria than CBB had.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #95 on: May 10, 2018, 12:17:17 pm »

I think yaíll are trying to imply iím saying a bunch of players quit, thatís not what iím saying, what iím Saying is that there was a reduction in effort and in the SEC you canít afford that.  I am saying that some upperclassmen that could have/should have provided the leadership in certain aspects of the program werenít motivated to do that.  If white washing the problem is your way fine, iím just calling it the way I see it. 

Thatís why I said the team needs leaders and I hope CCM handpicked them based on their abilities in that area on the field not in the classroom.  Maybe itís happening right now in the off season.  One thing iím Pretty sure of is that CCM will have a different  criteria than CBB had.



You were trying to imply they recruited people to do well in the class room over doing well on the football field.


Now you're going on some other tangent lol
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HoginMemphis

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #96 on: May 10, 2018, 12:24:45 pm »

Here is why we won't:

We don't have the players to do it.

The players are starting a completely new system on both sides of the ball.

I think it gets better by year 2 or 3 but history says we struggle this year. 
 
I will gladly eat crow in November as I hope I am wrong.   But I just don't see it happening.
Same. This team is too thin, regardless of their want to or new coaches or new schemes. Will be a good season if they win 2 SEC games and do not lose more than 1 non-conf game.
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GuvHog

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #97 on: May 10, 2018, 01:17:49 pm »

I think ya’ll are trying to imply i’m saying a bunch of players quit, that’s not what i’m saying, what i’m Saying is that there was a reduction in effort and in the SEC you can’t afford that.  I am saying that some upperclassmen that could have/should have provided the leadership in certain aspects of the program weren’t motivated to do that.  If white washing the problem is your way fine, i’m just calling it the way I see it. 

That’s why I said the team needs leaders and I hope CCM handpicked them based on their abilities in that area on the field not in the classroom.  Maybe it’s happening right now in the off season.  One thing i’m Pretty sure of is that CCM will have a different  criteria than CBB had.


Last year, I got the distinct impression that some of the players weren't buying what the coaches were selling. To me that was a BIG part of the Problem.

When I went to the Spring game this year, one of the things I noticed right off of the bat was that the defensive players were really buying into what Chavis and the Defensive coaches were selling. The players were paying close attention and responding when the coaches were giving them instructions.
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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #98 on: May 10, 2018, 03:43:35 pm »


You were trying to imply they recruited people to do well in the class room over doing well on the football field.


Now you're going on some other tangent lol

Not really it ties together, at least in my mind.  We recruited a lot of players for whom the best way out of a bad situation was the classroom.  While I blame the whole thing on Bielema, what iím Talking about is results.  Results predicated on carrying through with a total commitment to football.  More than a few of the upperclassmen lost that commitment.  I hope CCM gets it back on track.
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flynhog

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #99 on: May 10, 2018, 05:11:31 pm »

Houston Nutt did with Danny Ford's team.  Chad Morris can do it wit BB's team too.
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