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Author Topic: Explaining why I think we win more than expected  (Read 6169 times)

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goodguytex

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #100 on: May 10, 2018, 05:24:05 pm »

Big thing is getting everyone all working together and on the same page. Seemed like many times over the last 2 seasons, the coaching staff had a house divided. Seemed like oline coach wasn't in sync with Enos, the DC wasn't in sync with some of the position coaches. And players feed, good or bad off of that. Everyone has to be in sync, be working together or it won't be successful.

Also takes a HC being fully involved that actually knows what's going on, and can make sure thing are done right the way they need to be.

Coach Morris does seem to have some perfectionist qualities in him. Where he's got low tolerance for dumb mistakes. Seems to have a little Petrino type of quality in him. And that's a great thing to have.

Also being able to out think your opponents, as in playing chess with your counterparts on the other side line is important. Bielema lost most of those matchups.

LZH

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #101 on: May 10, 2018, 05:59:26 pm »

Bagmen are alive and well....just more conservative than most. Dammit.
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lakecityhog

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #102 on: May 10, 2018, 06:58:47 pm »

Lots of good responses, but let's not get too carried away with what BB did or did not do. Rehashing his failures won't change a thing.

We have to hope that those involved in hiring Morris did indeed see some of the "good" Petrino traits in him.

If Morris refuses to tolerate second rate effort, from the players or the assistant coaches that would be +1.
If Morris can produce game plans that exploit any weakness the opposing D might have that would be +2.
If Morris will really give his DC the latitude to run HIS style of defense that would be +3 and a +1 over Petrino!
If Morris has 60% of Nutt's ability to motivate the players on game day that would be +4!
If Morris can recruit at a level just 25% better than our normal average that would be the icing on the cake!!!

Doing the 1st four things in 2018 at a pretty high rate would almost have to show up in the win column. At least that is the hope that I have.

goodguytex

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #103 on: May 10, 2018, 07:15:59 pm »

Lots of good responses, but let's not get too carried away with what BB did or did not do. Rehashing his failures won't change a thing.

We have to hope that those involved in hiring Morris did indeed see some of the "good" Petrino traits in him.

If Morris refuses to tolerate second rate effort, from the players or the assistant coaches that would be +1.
If Morris can produce game plans that exploit any weakness the opposing D might have that would be +2.
If Morris will really give his DC the latitude to run HIS style of defense that would be +3 and a +1 over Petrino!
If Morris has 60% of Nutt's ability to motivate the players on game day that would be +4!
If Morris can recruit at a level just 25% better than our normal average that would be the icing on the cake!!!

Doing the 1st four things in 2018 at a pretty high rate would almost have to show up in the win column. At least that is the hope that I have.
Fact of the matter is we really don't know yet how good of an SEC coach Morris will be. He really wasn't at SMU long enough to turn the program around.

There's some blind Faith at work, as well as bringing a plan to the table that those in charge think will succeed. And it might. We will see. With Petrino, Bielema... They had track records on paper. And if Morris has the right discipline, plan in place, people around him to help, he may be just what the Hogs need.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #104 on: May 10, 2018, 07:54:32 pm »

Fact of the matter is we really don't know yet how good of an SEC coach Morris will be. He really wasn't at SMU long enough to turn the program around.

There's some blind Faith at work, as well as bringing a plan to the table that those in charge think will succeed. And it might. We will see. With Petrino, Bielema... They had track records on paper. And if Morris has the right discipline, plan in place, people around him to help, he may be just what the Hogs need.

Yes, a lot of truth in what you say. We don't know, yet. We may not know after the first year either.

The one thing that I would add is that we at least knew that Petrino was a great offensive schemer. Not as much emphasis placed on the defense as the offense, but his strength offensively carried us to a lot of wins.

Bielema had demonstrated an ability to do more with less as well, but in the Big Ten West and in an offense and defense that put greater emphasis on bigger bodies that simply overpowered opponents. I know that my thought process when he was hired was that he could transition that philosophy to a higher level of talent and competition in the SEC West but I was wrong. He just couldn't land enough talent to overcome bad coaching calls. He isn't the first successful coach from somewhere else who ended up being humbled by the strength, talent and quality depth of the SEC West.

Morris is more like Petrino than Bielema from an offensive standpoint and he at least was wise enough to reach out for what he believed to be an accomplished SEC level DC in Chavis who he believed could produce an SEC West level defense. He didn't have that at SMU but he also didn't have the draw for recruits when playing in that conference. The SEC affiliation draws more recruits.

The trick for Morris is going to be finding a way to be more Petrino-like (dare I say, Gus-like) on offense while trusting his DC to produce more pressure on opposing teams while minimizing the big plays that we have given up that have haunted our Secondary for several years now.

Between Morris and Chavis, this might just be the perfect-storm, though I doubt that it will be the first year out of the chute. But it might be good enough to get us to a lower level bowl game and the next year to a better bowl game. Beyond that, who can say? A lot depends upon his ability to correct the mental attitude of the team from one who has a tendency to fold in the face of adversity, to one that bounces back and fights harder.

Time will tell but I am hopeful.

bphi11ips

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #105 on: May 10, 2018, 08:09:43 pm »

Same. This team is too thin, regardless of their want to or new coaches or new schemes. Will be a good season if they win 2 SEC games and do not lose more than 1 non-conf game.

Too thin for what? 

If we lose a nonconference game, dinner is on me in Little Rock. You pick the spot.

Too thin to beat Alabama or Auburn at Auburn?  Yes.

Too thin to beat the remaining teams on the SEC schedule?  No.  Will we win them all?  Probably not, but we’ll win at least half of them.

TNRazorbacker

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #106 on: May 10, 2018, 10:05:37 pm »

Lets not sugar coat it, we sucked last year, and it wasnt just the injuries. We sucked early too.

We will struggle this year too. New system, square pegs, round holes, its just typical in first years for coaches. Softest schedule in years this year tho. For that reason I do think we have a bowl shot.

I like Morris tho. Give him a few years to recruit round pegs and lets see what happens.

HoginMemphis

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #107 on: May 10, 2018, 11:27:44 pm »

Too thin for what? 

If we lose a nonconference game, dinner is on me in Little Rock. You pick the spot.

Too thin to beat Alabama or Auburn at Auburn?  Yes.

Too thin to beat the remaining teams on the SEC schedule?  No.  Will we win them all?  Probably not, but we’ll win at least half of them.
And if Ark is unbeaten in nonconference play, dinner is on me. 2 SEC wins will be good. 3 will be great!

Mike_e

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #108 on: May 11, 2018, 08:05:12 am »

Big thing is getting everyone all working together and on the same page. Seemed like many times over the last 2 seasons, the coaching staff had a house divided. Seemed like oline coach wasn't in sync with Enos, the DC wasn't in sync with some of the position coaches. And players feed, good or bad off of that. Everyone has to be in sync, be working together or it won't be successful.

Also takes a HC being fully involved that actually knows what's going on, and can make sure thing are done right the way they need to be.

Coach Morris does seem to have some perfectionist qualities in him. Where he's got low tolerance for dumb mistakes. Seems to have a little Petrino type of quality in him. And that's a great thing to have.

Also being able to out think your opponents, as in playing chess with your counterparts on the other side line is important. Bielema lost most of those matchups.

 I have no idea where the problem started but it seems to me that it started around the a&m game of 2016.

There seemed to be division in the offense between groups of players.  I don't know if this is true but the 'stars' seemed a little distant towards everyone else.  Whatever the case it seemed that we'd go out and everybody would have everybody else's back and then they wouldn't.

The same with the defense.  Different position groups would stick together but it seemed that there was no 'everybody rally around each other and let's all get this thing done' type of vibe.

I kind of get the defensive side's division.  The DC at the time get's one of his position coaches handed to him and it's a guy that's not only a fairly well respected DC but an ex HC.  For a position coach.

Robb had to be wondering what he could get for his house from the start.  And ticked about it.

The offense I don't get unless there was in fact a player division.  The new OLine coach may have not have been a great hire but unless BB was boneheaded on a Titanic scale the OC should have been able spell out what he wanted.  After all the OLine couldn't have forgotten what they had been learning in the space of a couple of months. 

So, to me anyway, the players not rallying around each other or even all being excited when something went right is telling.

And no, this wasn't a complete breakdown but if there was enough of it for me to notice it couldn't have been good.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #109 on: May 11, 2018, 09:05:33 am »

I have no idea where the problem started but it seems to me that it started around the a&m game of 2016.

There seemed to be division in the offense between groups of players.  I don't know if this is true but the 'stars' seemed a little distant towards everyone else.  Whatever the case it seemed that we'd go out and everybody would have everybody else's back and then they wouldn't.

The same with the defense.  Different position groups would stick together but it seemed that there was no 'everybody rally around each other and let's all get this thing done' type of vibe.

I kind of get the defensive side's division.  The DC at the time get's one of his position coaches handed to him and it's a guy that's not only a fairly well respected DC but an ex HC.  For a position coach.

Robb had to be wondering what he could get for his house from the start.  And ticked about it.

The offense I don't get unless there was in fact a player division.  The new OLine coach may have not have been a great hire but unless BB was boneheaded on a Titanic scale the OC should have been able spell out what he wanted.  After all the OLine couldn't have forgotten what they had been learning in the space of a couple of months. 

So, to me anyway, the players not rallying around each other or even all being excited when something went right is telling.

And no, this wasn't a complete breakdown but if there was enough of it for me to notice it couldn't have been good.

The simple answer to the OP is that Arkansas has more talent than it has shown since mid-2016.  You may be right that chemistry and contrasting philosophy account for much of the underperformance.

People also tend to look only at wins and losses and not the schedule, the way the schedule sets up, injuries, etc.  Arkansas was not a bad football team in 2017. The TCU game could have gone either way.  TCU finished the season ranked 9.  A Christian Kirk kickoff return was the difference in an Arkansas win and an OT loss.  Mounting injuries and midseason games against Alabama and Auburn sealed the downward spiral.  It was predictable, and seasons like 2017 happen to every team once in a while.

The 2018 Razorbacks return a ton of talent and experience on both sides of the ball.  It's a new season with a new staff.  These players will be hungry.  The schedule sets up with a runway giving the team time to gel.  Auburn is most likely a loss, but A&M is very beatable.  The Aggies are the team with a tough start in 2018.  They get Clemson in week 2 and catch Arkansas after a road game at Alabama.  If the Hogs get through Alabama 4-2, they won't be hanging their heads, especially if they play well in both losses.  The next four games are at home.  Every game the rest of the year is winnable.  The Hogs could be on a roll by the time they close at Mississippi State and Missouri.

Orville Henry used to look at the way the schedule set up before every season and had an uncanny ability to predict the way it would play out based on that alone.  College football is just that way.  Don't be surprised if a few in the media pick Arkansas in the preseason as a surprise team, because if you drill down into the talent returning, the reasons this team underperformed the last two years, and the 2018 schedule, it's easy to see the possibility for a quick turnaround.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #110 on: May 11, 2018, 11:06:51 am »

Using the TCU game last year as an example to why we will over achieve this year is a fallacy. Sure the game was close into the 4th, but that had more to do with TCU shooting themselves in the foot. Arkansas couldn't capitalize even when TCU was begging them too



TCU dominated Arkansas. Was more physical just could not translate that to more points until the end 

TCU also had 24 first downs to Arkansas's 13


10-14 on third down, to 4-14 for Arkansas


Arkansas was a bad football team last year. To say otherwise is just complete oversight and negligence of the product that was on the field.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 01:26:22 pm by rhames »
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NaturalStateReb

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Re: Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #111 on: May 11, 2018, 01:35:22 pm »

I respectfully disagree. I believe Kelley will be a solid QB. He won't be a world beater by any means, but he'll be good enough to move the team up and down the field and score points. He'll run the offense efficiently and won't make silly mistakes that would get the Hogs beaten but I don't expect him to look like an All American Elite QB.

There's something to that.  These offenses can make do with a serviceable QB, and that's what I think Kelley is.  That's one of the best things about these types offenses, and why they're so popular--they can help offset talent disadvantages.
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rhames

Re: Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #112 on: May 11, 2018, 03:06:35 pm »

I can see why some of the stuff got trashed but those stats on the TCU game deserve to be on here.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #113 on: May 11, 2018, 07:31:13 pm »

There's something to that.  These offenses can make do with a serviceable QB, and that's what I think Kelley is.  That's one of the best things about these types offenses, and why they're so popular--they can help offset talent disadvantages.

Cole Kelley is a great drop back passer who will only get better in time if he has the opportunity to practice that particular skill set. Kelley is also quite a load when he takes off with the ball in hand and though he may never be confused with or compared to Matt Jones, he nonetheless covers more ground more quickly than one might expect when he does run the ball and he isn't afraid to lower his shoulder to gain extra yards. Still, he is not the typical representation of a dual threat QB.

This article speaks more to the history and development of the DT QB as offenses have morphed from true option to third generation DT QB's as used in college football. This was written in 2014 but I think it offers an accurate look at that which Morris will attempt to acquire and train as we go forward.

"It's plain enough that the strategy of emphasizing the spread-option running game along with a vertically-oriented passing game is more and more popular and largely due to the efforts from former HS coaches like Gus Malzahn, Chad Morris, and Art Briles".

More in this article:

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/2/19/8061667/the-future-of-the-dual-threat-quarterback-spread-option-Malzahn-Briles
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rtr

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #114 on: May 11, 2018, 10:58:52 pm »

[quote author=rhames link=topic=660546.msg11516104#msg11516104 date=15258

Never said it was worthless. Just that the should have won and should have lost games even out.


I dont recall any half time leads that were blown last year though. Maybe A&M?

So I'm not sure what a team did in the 2016 season will have much bearing on 2018.



[/quote]Ole Miss in 2015 was the only game conference game we should have lost that I can remember and even then we were attempting a game winning field goal at the end of regulation.  I think you you better check the record. 
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #115 on: May 12, 2018, 07:09:07 am »

Games we probably should have lost just off the top of my head:


Ole miss 2015, La tech 2016, TCU 2016, ole miss 2017, Costal Carolina 2017.



My point is for every game "we should have won" there is a game we should have lost. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #116 on: May 12, 2018, 07:45:58 am »

Using the TCU gamw last year as an example to why we will over achieve this year is a fallacy. Sure the game was close into the 4th, but that had more to do with TCU shooting themselves in the foot. Arkansas couldn't capitalize even when TCU was begging them too



TCU dominated Arkansas. Was more physical just could not translate that to more points until the end 

TCU also had 24 first downs to Arkansas's 13


10-14 on third down, to 4-14 for Arkansas


Arkansas was a bad football team last year. To say otherwise is just complete oversight and negligence of the product that was on the field.


It's clear that as a team, we didn't play very well vs. TCU.

Defensively, TCU came with a really good game plan and executed that game plan well after the 1st quarter (adjustments). We were 5 of 9 for 107 passing yards, but only rushed 10 times for an average of 2.7 yds/rush in the 1st quarter. It was worse in the 2nd quarter where we had two drives in which we ran a total of 6 plays for just 10 yards and attempted just 1 pass. Anemic offense. Despite this and despite missing a golden opportunity for a TD with a 1st and 10 at the TCU 11 in the first quarter (which ended in a missed FG), the defense managed to hold TCU to 179 total yards but gave up 14 points.

It's hard to expect a great deal from a defense when the offense is unproductive for an entire quarter.

The third quarter was worse for us in terms of the passing game than the 2nd quarter. 1 of 3 for -4 yards. We did however rush 10 times for 72 yards, but zero points. Again, a 1st and goal late in the 3rd at the TCU 3 and yet another missed FG. Meanwhile, the defense was tiring and TCU gained 104 yards (55 passing, 54 rushing) on 19 plays but didn't score a single point.

And despite the defense giving up just 65 yards in the 4th quarter, they did give up another TD and then there was the TCU fumble return for a TD on the ensuing KO following their score.

In the end, the defense gave up just 361 yards to TCU which, under normal circumstances, should have been enough to give us a chance to win. But when your offense can't get started and generates just 267 total yards (half of that in the 1st qtr) and you complete just 39% of your passes, you aren't helping your defense very much. The OL allowed 3 sacks, 1 QB hurry and just 2 TFL. Our defense on the other hand, logged 1 sack, 2 QB hurries and 4 TFL and forced two T/O's.

We can talk about our defense not playing well last season (and overall they didn't) but in this game they gave us a chance and the offense didn't hold up their end. Two times inside TCU's 15 and zero points to show for it. That's enough to take the wind out of your sails.
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carolinahogger

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #117 on: May 12, 2018, 07:59:53 am »

Cole Kelley is a great drop back passer...

You serious, Clark?

Joe Ferguson was a great drop back passer.  Mallett was pretty darned good.  Kelley has potential.

MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #118 on: May 12, 2018, 08:15:08 am »

You serious, Clark?

Joe Ferguson was a great drop back passer.  Mallett was pretty darned good.  Kelley has potential.

I think you missed the context by shortening the quote. That is the one thing that I think that he does best and yes, he has great potential, in that style of offense.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #119 on: May 12, 2018, 08:18:13 am »

It's clear that as a team, we didn't play very well vs. TCU.

Defensively, TCU came with a really good game plan and executed that game plan well after the 1st quarter (adjustments). We were 5 of 9 for 107 passing yards, but only rushed 10 times for an average of 2.7 yds/rush in the 1st quarter. It was worse in the 2nd quarter where we had two drives in which we ran a total of 6 plays for just 10 yards and attempted just 1 pass. Anemic offense. Despite this and despite missing a golden opportunity for a TD with a 1st and 10 at the TCU 11 in the first quarter (which ended in a missed FG), the defense managed to hold TCU to 179 total yards but gave up 14 points.

It's hard to expect a great deal from a defense when the offense is unproductive for an entire quarter.

The third quarter was worse for us in terms of the passing game than the 2nd quarter. 1 of 3 for -4 yards. We did however rush 10 times for 72 yards, but zero points. Again, a 1st and goal late in the 3rd at the TCU 3 and yet another missed FG. Meanwhile, the defense was tiring and TCU gained 104 yards (55 passing, 54 rushing) on 19 plays but didn't score a single point.

And despite the defense giving up just 65 yards in the 4th quarter, they did give up another TD and then there was the TCU fumble return for a TD on the ensuing KO following their score.

In the end, the defense gave up just 361 yards to TCU which, under normal circumstances, should have been enough to give us a chance to win. But when your offense can't get started and generates just 267 total yards (half of that in the 1st qtr) and you complete just 39% of your passes, you aren't helping your defense very much. The OL allowed 3 sacks, 1 QB hurry and just 2 TFL. Our defense on the other hand, logged 1 sack, 2 QB hurries and 4 TFL and forced two T/O's.

We can talk about our defense not playing well last season (and overall they didn't) but in this game they gave us a chance and the offense didn't hold up their end. Two times inside TCU's 15 and zero points to show for it. That's enough to take the wind out of your sails.


The offense was horrible that day no doubt, but TCU beat Arkansas on both sides of the ball pretty easily. Everything reflects that




TCU sustained drives and missed opportunities for points.


If we were to just switch the team names with the stats hogville, rightfully so, would be beating their chest over a dominate performance.


Again, you didnt even mention the miscues on TCU's end.


But I'm not sure that game, or really any game last year, gives us any insight on how well the 2018 Razorbacks will do.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #120 on: May 12, 2018, 09:42:16 am »


The offense was horrible that day no doubt, but TCU beat Arkansas on both sides of the ball pretty easily. Everything reflects that




TCU sustained drives and missed opportunities for points.


If we were to just switch the team names with the stats hogville, rightfully so, would be beating their chest over a dominate performance.


Again, you didnt even mention the miscues on TCU's end.


But I'm not sure that game, or really any game last year, gives us any insight on how well the 2018 Razorbacks will do.

Not sure how you took from my post that the TCU game last year, by itself, gives us insight into this year's performance.  If you look at 2017 as a whole, TCU was the first domino in a season where everything went wrong.  The schedule set up for it to go one way or the other.  Arkansas began the season at 36 in ESPN'S FPI, in the middle of a bunch from 27-41 that included Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Missouri.  Arkansas's roster was ranked later by some service as having the 22nd most talented roster in college football.  Most of those players return in 2018.

TCU did not dominate Arkansas.  They had one turnover at the Arkansas 6.  Arkansas failed to score twice deep in TCU's redzone.  TCU was not driving when Hill threw an interception from his own 41 on the fourth play of a series.  Arkansas took over at midfield and failed to capitalize. 

Had both teams scored TDs on every trip to the redzone, the game would have been tied 21-21 with less than 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter when TCU was bailed out on fourth down on a pass interference call on a badly overthrown ball.  The game could have gone either way.  TCU was the better team that day and all year.  Gary Patterson had a strong game plan -he beat Bret Bielema at his own game.  ESPN ranked TCU 19 in its preseason FPI.  All things considered, Arkansas hung tough until the end.

A&M was similar to TCU.  The game could have gone either way.  South Carolina was close until the dam broke in the third quarter after an interception.  The problem last year after TCU became the six inches between the players' ears.  Plus the chemistry and conflicting philosophy issues Mike_E mentioned.  My post followed up on his.  The basic point is that Arkansas was not a team bereft of talent in 2017.  It was definitely snakebit, though.  Much of that talent returns for a much easier schedule that sets up better as well. Those are the reasons I believe Arkansas is a good bet this year to exceed expectations.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #121 on: May 12, 2018, 10:19:15 am »

Again lots of words but you're just wrong. TCU dominated Arkansas. Every stat and the game prove this. They were more physical in that game and sustained drives. Had some miscues, as did Arkansas, but were able to overcome them and capitalize on Arkansas's

http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400933842


You also said Arkansas wasn't a bad team in 2017. That's the main point I disagree with you on.  Now I guess you don't, but most people do not think a 4-8 team is anything but, well bad.


You can use hindsight and all the what if's and and what nots you want.  You can do this with every team and every game. But facts are facts. I get it, you want to be optimistic. I have no problem with that. I am just pointing out the reasons you're looking to optimism are lacking.

"If we had only scored more points and held them to less, I'm telling you we could have won that game" doesn't hold a lot of water.


At the end of the day the games went how they went and the record is what it is. 



And the A&M game went nothing like the TCU game. Arkansas should have beat A&M

HogPharmer

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #122 on: May 12, 2018, 10:45:28 am »

Again lots of words but you're just wrong. TCU dominated Arkansas. Every stat and the game prove this. They were more physical in that game and sustained drives. Had some miscues, as did Arkansas, but were able to overcome them and capitalize on Arkansas's

http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400933842


You also said Arkansas wasn't a bad team in 2017. That's the main point I disagree with you on.  Now I guess you don't, but most people do not think a 4-8 team is anything but, well bad.


You can use hindsight and all the what if's and and what nots you want.  You can do this with every team and every game. But facts are facts. I get it, you want to be optimistic. I have no problem with that. I am just pointing out the reasons you're looking to optimism are lacking.

"If we had only scored more points and held them to less, I'm telling you we could have won that game" doesn't hold a lot of water.


At the end of the day the games went how they went and the record is what it is. 



And the A&M game went nothing like the TCU game. Arkansas should have beat A&M

Let me respond on behalf of bp:

Can we at least agree that we were, hands down, the best 4-8 team in the country last year?  ???

rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #123 on: May 12, 2018, 10:48:39 am »

Let me respond on behalf of bp:

Can we at least agree that we were, hands down, the best 4-8 team in the country last year?  ???


I can dig that!

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #124 on: May 12, 2018, 11:19:16 am »

Again lots of words but you're just wrong. TCU dominated Arkansas. Every stat and the game prove this. They were more physical in that game and sustained drives. Had some miscues, as did Arkansas, but were able to overcome them and capitalize on Arkansas's

http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400933842


You also said Arkansas wasn't a bad team in 2017. That's the main point I disagree with you on.  Now I guess you don't, but most people do not think a 4-8 team is anything but, well bad.


You can use hindsight and all the what if's and and what nots you want.  You can do this with every team and every game. But facts are facts. I get it, you want to be optimistic. I have no problem with that. I am just pointing out the reasons you're looking to optimism are lacking.

"If we had only scored more points and held them to less, I'm telling you we could have won that game" doesn't hold a lot of water.


At the end of the day the games went how they went and the record is what it is. 



And the A&M game went nothing like the TCU game. Arkansas should have beat A&M

Beating a dead horse here but in automotive terms we were bad.  We were a stretched timing chain bad but not a piston rod through the side of the engine block bad.

Neither issue would allow you to win a race today but fixing a timing chain in short order is doable.
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lakecityhog

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #125 on: May 12, 2018, 11:38:21 am »

Rhames, you are hung up on the record from last year and the OP isn't about that at all. The whole point of the OP is that we had better talent than our record indicated and that we probably have more returning talent then most people would think.
The 2 quotes below illustrate what I am talking about.

"Arkansas's roster was ranked later by some service as having the 22nd most talented roster in college football.  Most of those players return in 2018."

"Arkansas began the season at 36 in ESPN'S FPI, in the middle of a bunch from 27-41 that included Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Missouri."

If Long had pulled the trigger on BB after the 2016 season and Morris had come on board then do you honestly believe that we would have finished with a 4-8 record?

I really believe that a competent coaching staff would have had Ragnow at guard or tackle and Rogers at center and our O'Line would have been lightyears ahead. With a serviceable O'Line, a Senior QB and the stable of running backs that we had 2017 could have been a pretty good year.

My #1 worry for 2018 is QB play, not from the standpoint of talent, but from the standpoint of fear that the QB will try to do too much. I believe that Storey or Kelley can pilot this team to bowl eligibility, IF they play within the system.



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HogPharmer

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #126 on: May 12, 2018, 11:58:45 am »

Rhames, you are hung up on the record from last year and the OP isn't about that at all. The whole point of the OP is that we had better talent than our record indicated and that we probably have more returning talent then most people would think.
The 2 quotes below illustrate what I am talking about.

"Arkansas's roster was ranked later by some service as having the 22nd most talented roster in college football.  Most of those players return in 2018."

"Arkansas began the season at 36 in ESPN'S FPI, in the middle of a bunch from 27-41 that included Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Missouri."

If Long had pulled the trigger on BB after the 2016 season and Morris had come on board then do you honestly believe that we would have finished with a 4-8 record?

I really believe that a competent coaching staff would have had Ragnow at guard or tackle and Rogers at center and our O'Line would have been lightyears ahead. With a serviceable O'Line, a Senior QB and the stable of running backs that we had 2017 could have been a pretty good year.

My #1 worry for 2018 is QB play, not from the standpoint of talent, but from the standpoint of fear that the QB will try to do too much. I believe that Storey or Kelley can pilot this team to bowl eligibility, IF they play within the system.

Our 4-8 team last year was bad. That's obvious because we were 4-8. We got smoked by Mizzou, who most everyone counted as a win preseason. And we honestly should have lost to Coastal Carolina... A team that was like 2 years removed from the FCS. Good teams don't put on performances like that. There's a difference in being a pessimist and being realistic. Some of you are having a hard time differentiating the two. We were flat out a bad team; be it due to not having the right talent, piss poor coaching, or a combination of the two. And I don't think many will argue that the main reason was due to poor coaching... But that still didn't make us not a bad team last season.


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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #127 on: May 12, 2018, 12:26:53 pm »

Using the TCU gamw last year as an example to why we will over achieve this year is a fallacy. Sure the game was close into the 4th, but that had more to do with TCU shooting themselves in the foot. Arkansas couldn't capitalize even when TCU was begging them too



TCU dominated Arkansas. Was more physical just could not translate that to more points until the end 

TCU also had 24 first downs to Arkansas's 13


10-14 on third down, to 4-14 for Arkansas


Arkansas was a bad football team last year. To say otherwise is just complete oversight and negligence of the product that was on the field.


I'll counter with this. I didn't see a gap in talent from one team to the other. What I saw was that one team was much better prepared and better coached. The Hogs suffered the entire game from blown assignments and being out of position. It was hard to watch but TCU did not overwhelm based on talent. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #128 on: May 12, 2018, 12:35:48 pm »


The offense was horrible that day no doubt, but TCU beat Arkansas on both sides of the ball pretty easily. Everything reflects that




TCU sustained drives and missed opportunities for points.


If we were to just switch the team names with the stats hogville, rightfully so, would be beating their chest over a dominate performance.


Again, you didnt even mention the miscues on TCU's end.


But I'm not sure that game, or really any game last year, gives us any insight on how well the 2018 Razorbacks will do.

You mean their two T/O's? Yeah, I believe that I mentioned that. According to you, aside from those two T/O's they pretty well kicked our butt's. So did they play well and kick our butt's or did they keep shooting themselves in the foot, which would indicate less dominating play by TCU? It can't be both ways.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #129 on: May 12, 2018, 12:54:08 pm »

You mean their two T/O's? Yeah, I believe that I mentioned that. According to you, aside from those two T/O's they pretty well kicked our butt's. So did they play well and kick our butt's or did they keep shooting themselves in the foot, which would indicate less dominating play by TCU? It can't be both ways.


They did kick our butts. They can make mistakes and whip us on the line of scrimmage which they did.

You can dominate and still play not well. 

To say Arkansas was in that game because of Arkansas isn't honest


They did to Arkansas what Arkansas tried, or thought they wanted to do to others

« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 01:10:21 pm by rhames »
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #130 on: May 12, 2018, 01:06:14 pm »

Rhames, you are hung up on the record from last year and the OP isn't about that at all. The whole point of the OP is that we had better talent than our record indicated and that we probably have more returning talent then most people would think.
The 2 quotes below illustrate what I am talking about.

"Arkansas's roster was ranked later by some service as having the 22nd most talented roster in college football.  Most of those players return in 2018."

"Arkansas began the season at 36 in ESPN'S FPI, in the middle of a bunch from 27-41 that included Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Missouri."

If Long had pulled the trigger on BB after the 2016 season and Morris had come on board then do you honestly believe that we would have finished with a 4-8 record?

I really believe that a competent coaching staff would have had Ragnow at guard or tackle and Rogers at center and our O'Line would have been lightyears ahead. With a serviceable O'Line, a Senior QB and the stable of running backs that we had 2017 could have been a pretty good year.

My #1 worry for 2018 is QB play, not from the standpoint of talent, but from the standpoint of fear that the QB will try to do too much. I believe that Storey or Kelley can pilot this team to bowl eligibility, IF they play within the system.





A little background at first. This discussion happened yesterday and rightfully so was moved in the trash, for the most part.

I was pointing out that 4-8 is a bad team.


The OP was asking for reasons to hope for the best, someone brought up TCU and how "close" the game was when it was not. Thinking that could be a point of the finger on us being better. I disagree with that. You don't have to.

As for if Morris had coached 2017 I'm not sure what that really means and again playing the what if game.

As for as FPI, which I love, that changes and gets more accurate as the year goes on.  I believe at the beginning of the year it projected us around 6 or 7 wins. The user who brought it up in this argument, wanted to write it off last year when others were predicting a down year here.

If we are talking about FPi for this years team what is it? (As I mentioned it can change but if we are going to use the starting fpi ranking from last year lets examine this years)


I'm not trying to burst anyone's bubble and maybe this thread should just stick to the reasons why we may over achieve and discount any counter point or facts that say otherwise


My last point, on talent. No one knows how much talent is on this team. Anyone who says otherwise is just guessing. Now throw in that most of the players on this team are a hodgepodge of whatever Bielema's philosophy was while he was here. Morris is going to need time to get his guys in here to run his system. We will see glimpses this year, but indicators are it is going to be a bumpy ride. Just like Petrino's first year.


« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 04:13:17 pm by rhames »
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #131 on: May 12, 2018, 01:08:06 pm »

I'll counter with this. I didn't see a gap in talent from one team to the other. What I saw was that one team was much better prepared and better coached. The Hogs suffered the entire game from blown assignments and being out of position. It was hard to watch but TCU did not overwhelm based on talent. 


Man I guess we just saw different things. TCU had speed. Dominated the line of scrimmage. Shut down our receivers (although this was commom last year)


They were better coached no doubt about it though.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #132 on: May 12, 2018, 01:15:18 pm »

A little background at first. This discussion happened yesterday and rightfully slow was moved in the trash, for the most part.

I was pointing out that 4-8 is a team.


The OP was asking for reasons to hope for the best, someone brought up TCU and how "close" the gam was when it was not. Thinking that could be a point of the finger on us being better. I disagree with that. You don't have to.

As for if Morris had coached 2017 I'm not sure what that really means and again playing the what if game.

As for as FPI, which I love, that changes and gets more accurate as the year goes on.  I believe at the beginning of the year it projected us around 6 or 7 wins. The user who brought it up in this argument, wanted to write it off last year when others were predicting a down year here.

If we are talking about FPi for this years team what is it? (As I mentioned it can change but if we are going to use the starting fpi ranting from last year lets examine this years)


I'm not trying to burst anyone's bubble and maybe this thread should just stick to the reasons why we may over achieve and discount any counter point or facts that say otherwise


My last point, on talent. No one knows how much talent is on this team. Anyone who says otherwise is just guessing. Now throw in that most of the players on this team are a hodgepodge of whatever Bielema's philosophy was while he was here. Morris is going to need time to get his guys in here to run his system. We will see glimpses this year, but indicators are it is going to be a bumpy ride. Just like Petrino's first year.

To piggyback this, the "talent" on this team, unless insanely developed already by Morris and Co., still ranks around 9th in the SEC in talent.

Why? Because that's where are recruiting normally finishes. 9th or so in the conference. So as I said, unless that talent has been developed at a rapid pace, it's safe to say our "talent" level remains 9th or so in the SEC, because other teams are developing and getting better, too. Thing is, based on recruiting, their floor was already higher than ours.

That being said, I think and I'm hopeful Morris is a coach who can quickly develop players and out-coach other guys in this league, despite having less overall talent on the field.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #133 on: May 12, 2018, 01:38:50 pm »

In case you havent noticed, there is a much improved coaching staff.  And a head coach who believes in conditioning instead of girth.   Search hard to find negatives out of that.

How did I miss this beauty of a post.

Need to have Morris have a one on one convo with the girlfriend to do some convincing
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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #134 on: May 12, 2018, 03:36:37 pm »


They did kick our butts. They can make mistakes and whip us on the line of scrimmage which they did.

You can dominate and still play not well. 

To say Arkansas was in that game because of Arkansas isn't honest


They did to Arkansas what Arkansas tried, or thought they wanted to do to others



I guess we will just have to disagree. Gaining 361 yards of offense is not kicking our butts. Our offensive scheme and execution was inept whether that was due to coaching, due to Enos, the receivers coach, the O-Line coach, the TE coach or Bielema himself. Our defense didn't set the world on fire in that game, but they played well enough to give us a chance had our offense showed up. We had enough talent on offense to play a lot better than we did. Would we have won had the offense showed up, scored TD's the two times that they had opportunities and played with greater positive emotion? Maybe, maybe not. We will never know for sure.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #135 on: May 12, 2018, 03:57:00 pm »

I guess we will just have to disagree. Gaining 361 yards of offense is not kicking our butts. Our offensive scheme and execution was inept whether that was due to coaching, due to Enos, the receivers coach, the O-Line coach, the TE coach or Bielema himself. Our defense didn't set the world on fire in that game, but they played well enough to give us a chance had our offense showed up. We had enough talent on offense to play a lot better than we did. Would we have won had the offense showed up, scored TD's the two times that they had opportunities and played with greater positive emotion? Maybe, maybe not. We will never know for sure.

Sure it's easy to blame the offense on all the coaches who aren't here anymore, outside of Lunny. I don't think Enos forgot how to call plays from 2016 to 2017.  A lot of Arkansas's offensive problems were because of TCU's defense. I also think there is a lack of talent at skill positions, which hurt Arkansas bad last year.

As to our defense, you're not going to win a lot of games when you let opponents convert third downs at 70%  I do agree though it is hard to keep people off the field when the offense can't move the ball.  The defense showed moments last year.


TCU had a plan to grind out Arkansas.  They saw on film that the lines on both sides of the ball weren't as physical and they could win those battles. They did.


But sure we can just chalk this up to agree to disagree.
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rtr

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #136 on: May 12, 2018, 08:43:02 pm »

Games we probably should have lost just off the top of my head:


Ole miss 2015, La tech 2016, TCU 2016, ole miss 2017, Costal Carolina 2017.



My point is for every game "we should have won" there is a game we should have lost. 
La Tech, the clock struck midnight on them.  TCU, we were clearly better in ot.  I will give you Ole Miss 2017, but from the middle of the second quarter we kicked their behind.  Coastal Carolina, we clearly wore them out in the fourth quarter.  Good teams win the close ones a lot more often than not. Your main point is a non-point.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #137 on: May 12, 2018, 10:00:12 pm »

La Tech, the clock struck midnight on them.  TCU, we were clearly better in ot.  I will give you Ole Miss 2017, but from the middle of the second quarter we kicked their behind.  Coastal Carolina, we clearly wore them out in the fourth quarter.  Good teams win the close ones a lot more often than not. Your main point is a non-point.


Do you not see the paradox in this post?


So the games we closely won, or had a little luck, we were just clearly better. However the games we lost but should have won, are just examples of how we are/were better than we performed.

They are a wash

And actually my main point was it's all irrelevant as it pertains to 2018. My secondary point is the games we should have won vs the games we should have lost net out.


Arkansas was not a good team in 2017. If you want to hang your hat on we were because of a come from behind victory over Coastal Carolina, by all means do so.

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #138 on: May 12, 2018, 10:22:05 pm »

My argument has never been whether or not we were a good team last year, the obvious answer is that we were not a good team. We finished 4-8, that is not good.

My argument has been and will always be that we had a more talented team than a 4-8 record. Poor coaching more than poor talent put us in that position.

"To piggyback this, the "talent" on this team, unless insanely developed already by Morris and Co., still ranks around 9th in the SEC in talent.
Why? Because that's where are recruiting normally finishes. 9th or so in the conference."

In response to this comment, please go back and find a team recruiting ranking that has Arkansas ranked better than 7th in the SEC, but several times we finished the season with much better records than 4-8. What was the difference??? COACHING!!! How hard is that to figure out?

Nutt used charisma to motivate his teams to play above their heads every now and then. Petrino used his offensive genius to out scheme coaches. BB could do neither and failed. Can Morris motivate? Can Morris out-scheme? Can Morris out recruit?

We have to hope that he can do at least some of all of those things.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #139 on: May 12, 2018, 10:46:35 pm »

It's a bit more than can Morris out scheme, out coach, etc for this year



Petrino went 5-7 his first year


I think a lot of us are saying, dont expect much this year. Give Morris the time to get his guys in and get his system installed.


Sure we would all love for the hogs to come out and out perform. I just dont think statements such as "6 wins is the floor" or "9 wins is possible" is fair for the staff.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 08:46:56 am by rhames »
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GuvHog

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #140 on: May 13, 2018, 07:36:19 am »

It's a bit more than can Morris out scheme, out coach, etc for this year



Petrino went 5-7 his first year


I think a lot of us are saying, dont expect much this year. Give Morris the time to get his guys in and get his system installed.


Sure we would all love for the hogs to come out and out perform. I just dont think statements such as "6 wins is the floor" or "9 wins is possible" is fair fo the staff.

There is nothing wrong with saying "6 wins is the floor" but saying "9 wins is possible" is going too far.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #141 on: May 13, 2018, 07:38:01 am »

There is nothing wrong with saying "6 wins is the floor" but saying "9 wins is possible" is going too far.


Really guv? 6 wins is the floor? No way they have a slip up and go 5-7? This is a team that won 4 games last year. 6 wins would be a great start for Morris, not the floor. 
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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #142 on: May 13, 2018, 07:41:02 am »


Really guv? 6 wins is the floor? No way they have a slip up and go 5-7? This is a team that won 4 games last year. 6 wins would be a great start for Morris, not the floor. 

As I said before, I believe the hogs will win at least 6 games this year and I've named those 6.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #143 on: May 13, 2018, 07:42:08 am »

As I said before, I believe the hogs will win at least 6 games this year and I've named those 6.


But that is not what floor means. 
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HoginMemphis

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #144 on: May 13, 2018, 08:37:44 am »

It's clear that as a team, we didn't play very well vs. TCU.

Defensively, TCU came with a really good game plan and executed that game plan well after the 1st quarter (adjustments). We were 5 of 9 for 107 passing yards, but only rushed 10 times for an average of 2.7 yds/rush in the 1st quarter. It was worse in the 2nd quarter where we had two drives in which we ran a total of 6 plays for just 10 yards and attempted just 1 pass. Anemic offense. Despite this and despite missing a golden opportunity for a TD with a 1st and 10 at the TCU 11 in the first quarter (which ended in a missed FG), the defense managed to hold TCU to 179 total yards but gave up 14 points.

It's hard to expect a great deal from a defense when the offense is unproductive for an entire quarter.

The third quarter was worse for us in terms of the passing game than the 2nd quarter. 1 of 3 for -4 yards. We did however rush 10 times for 72 yards, but zero points. Again, a 1st and goal late in the 3rd at the TCU 3 and yet another missed FG. Meanwhile, the defense was tiring and TCU gained 104 yards (55 passing, 54 rushing) on 19 plays but didn't score a single point.

And despite the defense giving up just 65 yards in the 4th quarter, they did give up another TD and then there was the TCU fumble return for a TD on the ensuing KO following their score.

In the end, the defense gave up just 361 yards to TCU which, under normal circumstances, should have been enough to give us a chance to win. But when your offense can't get started and generates just 267 total yards (half of that in the 1st qtr) and you complete just 39% of your passes, you aren't helping your defense very much. The OL allowed 3 sacks, 1 QB hurry and just 2 TFL. Our defense on the other hand, logged 1 sack, 2 QB hurries and 4 TFL and forced two T/O's.

We can talk about our defense not playing well last season (and overall they didn't) but in this game they gave us a chance and the offense didn't hold up their end. Two times inside TCU's 15 and zero points to show for it. That's enough to take the wind out of your sails.
Pretty typical/classic Austin Allen led offense. Can't put it in the EZ other than from 30+ yards out. No consistency from 1st half to 2nd half. Scores 7 to 10 points when playing a team with decent defense and defensive game plan. Went 4-8 last year and damn lucky to win by 1 over both Ole Miss and CC.
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HoginMemphis

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #145 on: May 13, 2018, 08:41:07 am »

Not sure how you took from my post that the TCU game last year, by itself, gives us insight into this year's performance.  If you look at 2017 as a whole, TCU was the first domino in a season where everything went wrong.  The schedule set up for it to go one way or the other.  Arkansas began the season at 36 in ESPN'S FPI, in the middle of a bunch from 27-41 that included Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Missouri.  Arkansas's roster was ranked later by some service as having the 22nd most talented roster in college football.  Most of those players return in 2018.

TCU did not dominate Arkansas.  They had one turnover at the Arkansas 6.  Arkansas failed to score twice deep in TCU's redzone.  TCU was not driving when Hill threw an interception from his own 41 on the fourth play of a series.  Arkansas took over at midfield and failed to capitalize. 

Had both teams scored TDs on every trip to the redzone, the game would have been tied 21-21 with less than 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter when TCU was bailed out on fourth down on a pass interference call on a badly overthrown ball.  The game could have gone either way.  TCU was the better team that day and all year.  Gary Patterson had a strong game plan -he beat Bret Bielema at his own game.  ESPN ranked TCU 19 in its preseason FPI.  All things considered, Arkansas hung tough until the end.

A&M was similar to TCU.  The game could have gone either way.  South Carolina was close until the dam broke in the third quarter after an interception.  The problem last year after TCU became the six inches between the players' ears.  Plus the chemistry and conflicting philosophy issues Mike_E mentioned.  My post followed up on his.  The basic point is that Arkansas was not a team bereft of talent in 2017.  It was definitely snakebit, though.  Much of that talent returns for a much easier schedule that sets up better as well. Those are the reasons I believe Arkansas is a good bet this year to exceed expectations.
I am not sold that Arkansas has players that are of the quality that some services say we did. However, if this coming season the Hogs win 6 or more games and do not play weak non-conf opponents down to the wire, I will agree that player quality is better than we thought and it was the terrible job that the head coach and his staff did that ran the program into the pile of pig manure.

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #146 on: May 13, 2018, 09:01:16 am »

It's a bit more than can Morris out scheme, out coach, etc for this year



Petrino went 5-7 his first year


I think a lot of us are saying, dont expect much this year. Give Morris the time to get his guys in and get his system installed.


Sure we would all love for the hogs to come out and out perform. I just dont think statements such as "6 wins is the floor" or "9 wins is possible" is fair for the staff.

Petrino was coming into a house divided- heck you could say a house that was poisoned.   There were enough players on that team that still liked hn enough that they were running around like they had boat anchors dragging behind them.

Had the whole team gotten behind him from the start he could easily have won a couple more games.

A lot of the players today seemed to have liked BB but since BB didn't have a cult of personality it seems likely that everyone is starting off on the same page. 

It doesn't seem a stretch to think that a 7 or 8 win season is obtainable to me.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #147 on: May 13, 2018, 09:09:04 am »

Petrino was coming into a house divided- heck you could say a house that was poisoned.   There were enough players on that team that still liked hn enough that they were running around like they had boat anchors dragging behind them.

Had the whole team gotten behind him from the start he could easily have won a couple more games.

A lot of the players today seemed to have liked BB but since BB didn't have a cult of personality it seems likely that everyone is starting off on the same page. 

It doesn't seem a stretch to think that a 7 or 8 win season is obtainable to me.


Ehh. While there were players I'm sure what were upset about Nutt I think it mostly had to do with getting the playbook down and other factors. There was also a lack of talent not including that 2008 class.

I think Morris will do well here in time,  but the most games he has ever won as a head coach was 7 and it took him 3 seasons to get there. Now we expect him to match that win total, or exceed it, with a team that wasn't recruited by him? In a much tougher conference. It is possible and I hope it happens. But Vegas has the win total right at 5.5., IMO.
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lakecityhog

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Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #148 on: May 13, 2018, 10:40:15 am »

5.5 games, right? You simply choose to take the low side at 5 wins and I choose to take the high side at 6 wins, yet you act like that would be a near impossibility. Obviously, Vegas thinks that we are somewhere very close to a 6 win team.

I hope more than believe that Morris is at least a games per year better coach than the guy we had. I think that he is smart enough to let Chavis run the D and that alone could mean 2 wins. Was Smith a terrible DC? Could Rhoads not coach a lick? I think both failed because the HC imposed his philosophy on their scheme. Too many cooks and all that.
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rhames

Re: Explaining why I think we win more than expected
« Reply #149 on: May 13, 2018, 10:54:56 am »

5.5 games, right? You simply choose to take the low side at 5 wins and I choose to take the high side at 6 wins, yet you act like that would be a near impossibility. Obviously, Vegas thinks that we are somewhere very close to a 6 win team.

I hope more than believe that Morris is at least a games per year better coach than the guy we had. I think that he is smart enough to let Chavis run the D and that alone could mean 2 wins. Was Smith a terrible DC? Could Rhoads not coach a lick? I think both failed because the HC imposed his philosophy on their scheme. Too many cooks and all that.


I've never said 6 wins is impossible. I said it would be great


As far as smith, or Rhodes, or insert whoever.....they will succeed based on the talent they have.


Bret Bielema didn't have a philosophy
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