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Author Topic: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler  (Read 7483 times)

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hawg66

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2018, 09:47:48 pm »

I know last year the Big East had a bad tourney. Seton Hall was overrated. Villanova went out early. Butler has a worse record in a weaker conference,IMO. Hogs are the higher seed for a reason. Doesnít mean itíll be easy but Arkansas should win.
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010HogFan

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2018, 10:04:59 pm »

I know last year the Big East had a bad tourney. Seton Hall was overrated. Villanova went out early. Butler has a worse record in a weaker conference,IMO. Hogs are the higher seed for a reason. Doesnít mean itíll be easy but Arkansas should win.

I didn't think Seton Hall was overrated at all. They were a force on the boards, had gritty guards, and were a tough out for us.
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OldTimeHawg

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2018, 10:06:35 pm »

I didn't think Seton Hall was overrated at all. They were a force on the boards, had gritty guards, and were a tough out for us.

Seton Hall was a bad matchup for Arkansas.  If I remember most computers and analysts were picking Seton Hall.  Didn't go so for well for them :D
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010HogFan

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2018, 10:08:31 pm »

Seton Hall was a bad matchup for Arkansas.  If I remember most computers and analysts were picking Seton Hall.  Didn't go so for well for them :D

If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.
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WBOBO

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2018, 10:08:51 pm »

Why is everyone so gd mad?   Be happy.  Accept the challenge and go.
Currently I have a broken ankle.  Accept the challenge and GO!
Go HOGS!!!!!!!!!!!!
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OldTimeHawg

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #55 on: March 11, 2018, 10:09:46 pm »

If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.

I didn't think it was questionable.  You push someone you get called.  I picked Seton Hall to win that one...and was happy I was wrong.  I'm picking Arkansas because I believe they matchup well with Butler.
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010HogFan

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2018, 10:11:54 pm »

I didn't think it was questionable.  You push someone you get called.  I picked Seton Hall to win that one...and was happy I was wrong.  I'm picking Arkansas because I believe they matchup well with Butler.

I don't think it was a bad call, it was just in question and somewhat controversial. I'm sure if you asked their fans you would get a very different interpretation lol. but yes, I think we match up WAY better with Butler than we did Seton Hall. Nothing Butler does has proven to cause us problems like lengthy guards and big guys seem to. I think we win by 6-8 points.
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OldTimeHawg

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2018, 10:13:34 pm »

I don't think it was a bad call, it was just in question and somewhat controversial. I'm sure if you asked their fans you would get a very different interpretation lol. but yes, I think we match up WAY better with Butler than we did Seton Hall. Nothing Butler does has proven to cause us problems like lengthy guards seem to. I think we win by 6-8 points.

Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.
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010HogFan

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #58 on: March 11, 2018, 10:14:51 pm »

Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.

I think Macon is going to go off. He won't have 3 bad games in a row.
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OldTimeHawg

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #59 on: March 11, 2018, 10:17:08 pm »

I think Macon is going to go off. He won't have 3 bad games in a row.

I'm thinking Barford and Macon are going to be playing out of their minds.  I don't know I just have that feeling.  They know that this is their last chance to have a special season, and I think they are going to be locked in this weekend.  Gafford is the X-Factor.  If he comes to play as well, this team is going to show the country how much they disrespected the Razorbacks.
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WBOBO

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #60 on: March 11, 2018, 10:21:14 pm »

Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.
Ask the computer how many dunks Gafford has in the game.  Because it will
be wrong.

 I like being the underdog.  I dare the  oddsmakers to make us a dog.
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OldTimeHawg

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #61 on: March 11, 2018, 10:23:08 pm »

Ask the computer how many dunks Gafford has in the game.  Because it will
be wrong.

 I like being the underdog.  I dare the  oddsmakers to make us a dog.

They have.  Almost all of them I have seen picked Butler to beat us.  I love it.  They did it last year with Seton Hall.  We won.  They said we couldn't hang with North Carolina.  We made them sweat till there were puddles on the floor.  I'm ready for Friday ;)
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WBOBO

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #62 on: March 11, 2018, 10:28:26 pm »

They have.  Almost all of them I have seen picked Butler to beat us.  I love it.  They did it last year with Seton Hall.  We won.  They said we couldn't hang with North Carolina.  We made them sweat till there were puddles on the floor.  I'm ready for Friday ;)
Walk daddy let yo momma ride!!!!!!!!!!!!
We should be dancing yeah.  We should be dancing yeah. 
GHG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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ChicoHog

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #63 on: March 11, 2018, 10:50:22 pm »

CBS sportsline computer simulation has Butler beating us 62.1% of the time.  They also have Stephen F. Austin beating Texas Tech which would be a big upset.  I hope they are wrong!

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-bracket-computer-simulation-predicts-surprising-upsets/
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snoblind

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #64 on: March 11, 2018, 11:02:08 pm »

I know last year the Big East had a bad tourney. Seton Hall was overrated. Villanova went out early. Butler has a worse record in a weaker conference,IMO. Hogs are the higher seed for a reason. Doesnít mean itíll be easy but Arkansas should win.

meh 

Villanova went out early last year because I picked them to win the tournament.  Year before I picked them to lose early and they won the whole thing.

This year my plan is to fill out at least 2 brackets.  I'll pick Butler and Purdue to go all the way.  That should put the Hogs in the sweet 16, 
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WBOBO

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #65 on: March 11, 2018, 11:10:12 pm »

They have.  Almost all of them I have seen picked Butler to beat us.  I love it.  They did it last year with Seton Hall.  We won.  They said we couldn't hang with North Carolina.  We made them sweat till there were puddles on the floor.  I'm ready for Friday ;)
Ya know Old Time  I love that #10 on your avatar.
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BannerMountainMan

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #66 on: March 11, 2018, 11:13:52 pm »

If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.
we were up by 2 and had the ball, we were on the ropes LOL
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seasonhog

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #67 on: March 11, 2018, 11:47:27 pm »

CBS sportsline computer simulation has Butler beating us 62.1% of the time.  They also have Stephen F. Austin beating Texas Tech which would be a big upset.  I hope they are wrong!

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-bracket-computer-simulation-predicts-surprising-upsets/




BING..... has Butler winning 55%
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mckinneyhog5

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #68 on: March 12, 2018, 12:33:02 am »

Seriously has many of you have watched Butler play this year? I have..are they bad? No. can they beat us? Yes. But I'm pretty confident by watching each tem we should win. Absolutely nothing to be afraid of.
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Razorod

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #69 on: March 12, 2018, 05:46:09 am »

It won't be easy, but we have been presented with a decent opportunity to get to the Sweet 16 and end the drought.
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MemphisBossHog

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #70 on: March 12, 2018, 06:11:39 am »

Vegas has it as a pick em I believe.
this is a tough draw for an opening game to be sure.  Butler is no joke, but if Hogs can pull this one out, they have a decent shot at making sweet 16.  Thank God we dont have North Carolina sitting there waiting on us if we do win.  LOL.                  jk
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GoHogzzGo

Underdog
« Reply #71 on: March 12, 2018, 07:15:47 am »

Butler opens as 1.5 point favorite. Yup another example how our seeding is a bit screwy. Not some major offense, but not how a 7-10 matchup should be set.

That being said, I hope CMA uses that and we stomp them.
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HogFaninMemphis

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Re: Underdog
« Reply #72 on: March 12, 2018, 08:16:57 am »

We got a tough first-round draw for sure, but we can overcome it. Vegas odds are about more than who the better team is, and they apparently see this as a particularly tough matchup for us.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 12:52:19 pm by HogFaninMemphis »
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The Hogfather

Re: Underdog
« Reply #73 on: March 12, 2018, 08:20:45 am »

I actually love being the underdog with this team.  They will use it to beat Butler's arse.
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hogcards

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Re: Underdog
« Reply #74 on: March 12, 2018, 08:21:22 am »

Sorry to say this, but I see them covering.
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King Kong

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Re: Underdog
« Reply #75 on: March 12, 2018, 08:40:35 am »

We got a tough first-round draw for sure, but we can overcome it. Vegas odds are about more than who the best team is, and they apparently see this as a particularly tough matchup for us.

Vegas is trying to make money and they know come Tournament time people will lay down money on names like Butler, Witcha St and Gonzaga
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King Kong

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Re: Underdog
« Reply #76 on: March 12, 2018, 08:41:55 am »

Butler opens as 1.5 point favorite. Yup another example how our seeding is a bit screwy. Not some major offense, but not how a 7-10 matchup should be set.

7-10 is basically a 50-50 game. Much like the 8-9. Heck much like the 5-12 game
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GoHogzzGo

Re: Underdog
« Reply #77 on: March 12, 2018, 09:02:01 am »

Vegas is trying to make money and they know come Tournament time people will lay down money on names like Butler, Witcha St and Gonzaga

I did wonder this as well. Butler is a well known tournament name now. With public money coming in on them.

Most people don’t know this is the first year there for their coach, who also did not have great first year coaching the year prior at Milkewaukee. Although he did have a big conference tournament run there.
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Hawg Red

Re: Underdog
« Reply #78 on: March 12, 2018, 09:08:12 am »

Easy $$$
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txkhog

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #79 on: March 12, 2018, 09:36:05 am »

If Hogs bring it like 2nd half against Florida they can beat Butler and Purdue. But if itís dribble around till shot clock is low and jack a 3 itís one and done. Match up zone and bang the boards is key.
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itsonlyagame

Re: Underdog
« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2018, 09:43:53 am »

Never underestimate an Indiana basketball team that plays its home games in the arena where they filmed the final scene of "Hoosiers".
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old_school_hawg

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2018, 09:50:29 am »

If Hogs bring it like 2nd half against Florida they can beat Butler and Purdue. But if itís dribble around till shot clock is low and jack a 3 itís one and done. Match up zone and bang the boards is key.
^^^^^this.
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steveaustin69

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #82 on: March 12, 2018, 09:56:28 am »

Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.

The vaunted chip on shoulder; always makes me laugh.
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Hawg Red

Re: Underdog
« Reply #83 on: March 12, 2018, 09:59:16 am »

Never underestimate an Indiana basketball team that plays its home games in the arena where they filmed the final scene of "Hoosiers".

They're the betting favorite. They aren't being underestimated. I also wouldn't underestimate a team coached by someone who has never lost in the the first round as the higher seed.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 10:14:33 am by Hawg Red »
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phadedhawg

Re: Underdog
« Reply #84 on: March 12, 2018, 10:20:46 am »

I agree that our team should benefit with a little adding motivation.  A 7/10 game is not much different than the 8/9.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it move towards Arkansas before Friday.  Maybe even odds by tip off.
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jgphillips3

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Re: Underdog
« Reply #85 on: March 12, 2018, 10:39:44 am »

7-10 is basically a 50-50 game. Much like the 8-9. Heck much like the 5-12 game

That 5-12 is often dangerous because that 12 is usually a really good mid-major.
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Corkscrew Johnson

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #86 on: March 12, 2018, 10:59:35 am »

If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.

On the ropes?  Haha we were holding the ball with a lead with less than 20 seconds left, waiting to be fouled, to shoot free throws to secure the win.  The intentional foul call just made it a done deal. 
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GuvHog

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #87 on: March 12, 2018, 11:05:00 am »

this is a tough draw for an opening game to be sure.  Butler is no joke, but if Hogs can pull this one out, they have a decent shot at making sweet 16.  Thank God we dont have North Carolina sitting there waiting on us if we do win.  LOL.                  jk

Arkansas has:

(A) One of the best back court combinations in college basketball.

(B) A 6'11" NBA big man

(C) a significant height advantage over Butler

(D) A deeper bench than Butler

This Butler team is pretty good but they are not as good as most Butler teams in the past have been. The Hogs should win this one.
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Triple T

Re: Underdog
« Reply #88 on: March 12, 2018, 11:09:37 am »

They deserve it, I mean they did beat Villanova 3 months ago and are 86-1 in their last 9 first round games. Nevermind the fact that they have only beaten 3 tournament teams since Villanova and all of them are an 8 seed or lower, or that they have a Head Coach who has no postseason experience (as a head coach).

7 out of our last 8 games have been against NCAAT teams, we were a couple of bad calls away from upsetting the eventual National Champion in the tourney last year. Hell we're 3-0 in our last 3 first round games. I don't doubt this will be a tough game, but the people thinking that Butler is going to win just because of name recognition and a fluke upset 3+ months ago are cray cray.
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Possible Oatmeal

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #89 on: March 12, 2018, 11:24:54 am »


Man, I hate losing BPI games.  There's always next year I guess.
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Possible Oatmeal

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2018, 11:26:00 am »

On the ropes?  Haha we were holding the ball with a lead with less than 20 seconds left, waiting to be fouled, to shoot free throws to secure the win.  The intentional foul call just made it a done deal.

Not mention, it wasn't even questionable.  A bunch of mouth-breathers that don't know the rule questioning it doesn't mean it is questionable.
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hogsanity

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2018, 11:41:38 am »

Seriously has many of you have watched Butler play this year? I have..are they bad? No. can they beat us? Yes. But I'm pretty confident by watching each tem we should win. Absolutely nothing to be afraid of.

Butler does not really do the things well that usually cause the Hogs problems. They are not a great 3pt shooting team, they are not killers on the boards, and the couple times I watched them the last two weeks their PG does not seem special.
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Corkscrew Johnson

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2018, 12:07:34 pm »

Mike Anderson's system typically struggles with teams who have good guard play and don't get rattled under pressure.  If you are cool, calm, and collected, and you pass the ball well, you are going to get open shots against us.  That's one reason we don't fare as well on the road; people are more comfortable at their own house are less likely to get rattled. 

Throw that all out the window in the tourney, when teams play tight.  We will see more defensive intensity than we've seen all season.  Even if we get down early, this will be a scrap to the finish.  I think they will fold under pressure. 

You saw it last year against UNC, they probably had the best backcourt in the country, and if Adrio Bailey had been .0001 seconds faster on that steal attempt that turned into a foul, he would have had a breakaway dunk and that game would have been over. 
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hogcards

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2018, 12:21:17 pm »

Fivethirtyeight.com has Butler as having a 60% chance of reaching round 2. 

Vegas, Power Rankings, and statistical models not loving us

Yea

Likelihood of Winning in the First Round:

90.75%- Tennessee
79.88%- Auburn
75.74%- Kentucky
65.89%- Florida
58.21%- Texas A&M
40.68%- Alabama
39.62%- Arkansas
38.57%- Missouri

Chances of Winning 1st AND 2nd Round Games:

59.44%- Tennessee
41.76%- Auburn
39.83%- Kentucky
31.76%- Florida
12.88%- Texas A&M
9.17%- Missouri
9.03%- Arkansas
4.96%- Alabama
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mckinneyhog5

Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #94 on: March 12, 2018, 12:35:23 pm »

If BPI was correct then why are the Hogs a 7 seed and butler a 10 seed?
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RacinRazorback

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #95 on: March 12, 2018, 12:52:15 pm »

If the good razorback team shows up we will be good, but if the bad team shows up we get beat. Lets just pray the good team shows up! Go HAWGS!! WPS!!!!
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hobhog

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:40 pm »

Arkansas has:

(A) One of the best back court combinations in college basketball.

(B) A 6'11" NBA big man

(C) a significant height advantage over Butler

(D) A deeper bench than Butler

This Butler team is pretty good but they are not as good as most Butler teams in the past have been. The Hogs should win this one.

That's why our season is such a head scratcher. After Gafford showed up early I thought we'd be much better with the senior guards. We have been so inconsistent it's hard to pick us.
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hogsanity

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2018, 01:14:32 pm »

That's why our season is such a head scratcher. After Gafford showed up early I thought we'd be much better with the senior guards. We have been so inconsistent it's hard to pick us.

Hogs have SR guards, but they are also SR guards that do not defend particularly well.
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OkieBack

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #98 on: March 12, 2018, 01:21:54 pm »

Seriously has many of you have watched Butler play this year? I have..are they bad? No. can they beat us? Yes. But I'm pretty confident by watching each tem we should win. Absolutely nothing to be afraid of.

Fear?  No.  Take them lightly?  Better not even think we have an edge somehow.  Every game has to have focus, intense defense, and smart shot selection by everyone.  Don't be timid.  Go do your thang and it will work out.  That said, Hogs by 8.
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nwahogfan1

Re: Underdog
« Reply #99 on: March 12, 2018, 02:33:25 pm »

Butler defensive style of play is usually more consistent and usually better in the NCAAT than Arkansas defensive style unless Butler does not shoot the 3 ball well.  Butler will try to force a slower pace.  We will give up open outside shots hoping for quick shots that are misses and up tempo play.  Of course if teams are hitting it is bad strategy.  Tn was hitting and Florida was not. 
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