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Author Topic: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler  (Read 7490 times)

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Gonzo

Re: Underdog
« Reply #100 on: March 12, 2018, 02:40:34 pm »

Vegas is trying to make money and they know come Tournament time people will lay down money on names like Butler, Witcha St and Gonzaga

Precisely. Betting lines aren't about what Vegas (or the local bookie) thinks will happen. They're about what Vegas thinks the bettors think will happen, just keeping the money even.


Go Hogs!
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alohawg

Re: Underdog
« Reply #101 on: March 12, 2018, 04:09:07 pm »

What was Macon stressing this year? Respect......well, now's the chance on the big stage for him one more time.
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BannerMountainMan

BPI
« Reply #102 on: March 12, 2018, 08:56:28 pm »

I know it's probably already been said but Butler has a 61% chance of winning, we have a 39%, a top 26 team shouldn't have that, I really do believe we got screwed now
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HeyHogs

Re: BPI
« Reply #103 on: March 12, 2018, 09:00:17 pm »

It seems that way but if you want to play with big boys you have to beat them.
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popcornhog

Re: BPI
« Reply #104 on: March 12, 2018, 09:09:18 pm »

I know it's probably already been said but Butler has a 61% chance of winning, we have a 39%, a top 26 team shouldn't have that, I really do believe we got screwed now

If we can play solid perimeter D, weíll be fine. We have had some games this year where weíve given up too many open threes. Thatís they key on Friday, to me.
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Sharky

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Re: BPI
« Reply #105 on: March 12, 2018, 09:30:43 pm »

They've lost 6 of the last 9. It's a good draw imo.
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BroyledNutts

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #106 on: March 13, 2018, 01:09:01 am »

.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2018, 12:11:01 pm by BroyledNutts »
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mckinneyhog5

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #107 on: March 13, 2018, 01:12:31 am »

Precisely. Betting lines aren't about what Vegas (or the local bookie) thinks will happen. They're about what Vegas thinks the bettors think will happen, just keeping the money even.


Go Hogs!
BS...the biggest myth amongst non-bettors.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #108 on: March 13, 2018, 06:18:27 am »

Iím embarrassed by the number of Hogville fans that think everyone (refs, committee, analysts, Espn predictions) is out to get AR and we are always getting disrespected. Itís such a weak and unoriginal argument. I think some would rather believe others are out to get AR rather than believe the truth...and that truth is that most national perspectives donít give a crap about AR.

A large chunk of Hogville members have little interest in gaining information but have a massive need for positive affirmation. If a pundit or network doesnít affirm something positive about the program, some here simply canít manage their inferiority complex.
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Razorod

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #109 on: March 13, 2018, 06:25:46 am »

They've lost 6 of the last 9. It's a good draw imo.
I agree. I think both games are very winnable.
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oldman1015

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #110 on: March 13, 2018, 06:42:08 am »

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GuvHog

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #111 on: March 13, 2018, 09:24:06 am »

I know it's probably already been said but Butler has a 61% chance of winning, we have a 39%, a top 26 team shouldn't have that, I really do believe we got screwed now

That's because Butler is a name program in college basketball and has a storied history. This year though, they have a new head coach and finished middle of the pack (9-9) in a conference that is weaker than the SEC. The Hogs got a good draw and should win Friday.
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shown006

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #112 on: March 13, 2018, 10:06:29 am »

I honestly think it will be Arkansas -1.5 to -2 by the end of the week.
Incorrect.  Money has continue to come in on Butler.  Caesars and a couple of offshore spots now at Butler -2.
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KevinOMReb

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #113 on: March 13, 2018, 10:14:27 am »

I still think the Hog's athleticism wins out at the end.  Purdue is a terrible second round game.  I've got them to the Final 4.
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steveaustin69

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #114 on: March 13, 2018, 10:26:38 am »

Butler is a slow tempo ball team ... 1/2 court offense, 1/2 court defense ...

Run the guts out of them for the first half - make the pace as blisteringly fast as you can make it ... their legs will leave them in the second half and any advantage in perimeter or free throw shooting will fade ... do not play at their pace. Make them run the court.

I wonder where some of you think this stuff up
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OkieBack

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #115 on: March 13, 2018, 11:21:49 am »

I agree. I think both games are very winnable.

Don't let Butler's record fool us.  Statistically Butler is very much like the Hogs.  If the Hogs play better defense (get transitional baskets) and can hit the outside shots then the game is winnable.  If Hogs are lax playing D and are tentative shooting the ball then watch out - could be a long afternoon on Friday. 

Butler sounds like a team that has lived and died by the 3 at times this year, has been inconsistent on defense, and can damage inside at times (sounds familiar).  If the Hogs TCB then they can look pretty good.  If not, then they can look like a stinker.  It's a thin line between staying focused and playing loose.  Do both and the Hogs should win.
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Hawg Red

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #116 on: March 13, 2018, 11:29:16 am »

ESPN's BPI was about worthless projecting our late-season conference finish, so accept the validity of this at your own risk. Personally, I think some of you are getting caught up in the Butler name based on past performance under much better coaches. They had to hire this guy in June (!!) to replace their previous coach (took the Ohio State job after Matta was suddenly fired). This isn't your usual, dangerous Butler team.
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GuvHog

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #117 on: March 13, 2018, 12:02:43 pm »

ESPN's BPI was about worthless projecting our late-season conference finish, so accept the validity of this at your own risk. Personally, I think some of you are getting caught up in the Butler name based on past performance under much better coaches. They had to hire this guy in June (!!) to replace their previous coach (took the Ohio State job after Matta was suddenly fired). This isn't your usual, dangerous Butler team.

Exactly right.
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OldTimeHawg

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Re: Wow, ESPN BPI shows Butler as the winner
« Reply #118 on: March 13, 2018, 12:22:45 pm »

The vaunted chip on shoulder; always makes me laugh.

The vaunted know-it-all arsehole; always makes me laugh  :puke:
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k.c.hawg

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #119 on: March 13, 2018, 12:25:20 pm »

Well, the computers certainly don't like us. The guys from Prediction Machine just said they have Butler solid as a win. I actually think it is a good thing for our guys to realize what the national perception is. If they don't leave it all on the floor they can be one and done.  I've only seen Butler twice start to finish and one of those they beat Villanova and looked very good doing it. I'm also convinced that if we play a good game we will win.
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OldTimeHawg

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #120 on: March 13, 2018, 12:27:59 pm »

Well, the computers certainly don't like us. The guys from Prediction Machine just said they have Butler solid as a win. I actually think it is a good thing for our guys to realize what the national perception is. If they don't leave it all on the floor they can be one and done.  I've only seen Butler twice start to finish and one of those they beat Villanova and looked very good doing it. I'm also convinced that if we play a good game we will win.

Love it when the pundits call us to lose.  Just adds fuel to the Macon-Barford fire.  Looking at a 6-8 pt win for the Hawgs.

BTW I betted for the Hogs +2.  Think it will be easy $$$
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The Hogfather

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #121 on: March 13, 2018, 01:13:56 pm »

Iím embarrassed by the number of Hogville fans that think everyone (refs, committee, analysts, Espn predictions) is out to get AR and we are always getting disrespected. Itís such a weak and unoriginal argument. I think some would rather believe others are out to get AR rather than believe the truth...and that truth is that most national perspectives donít give a crap about AR.

Not the Hogs, per se.  There is a clear bias favoring the blue bloods and the East Coast teams by those who we hear talk about college basketball (other than SEC Network).  Facts.  Same as the news media (other than Fox News).  When the majority of people who talk about a particular subject are saying the same thing, even if it isn't necessarily true, those who aren't intimately involved or analyzing information constantly on their own often tend to just go with the flow.  They believe the "experts" (like the talking heads on ESPN) out of ignorance.

Favoritism flows like this in basketball:

Blue Bloods
East Coast Teams
West Coast Teams
Midwest Teams
Southern Teams
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mizzouman

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #122 on: March 13, 2018, 01:20:01 pm »

Well, the computers certainly don't like us. The guys from Prediction Machine just said they have Butler solid as a win. I actually think it is a good thing for our guys to realize what the national perception is. If they don't leave it all on the floor they can be one and done.  I've only seen Butler twice start to finish and one of those they beat Villanova and looked very good doing it. I'm also convinced that if we play a good game we will win.
Good thing games aren't played on a computer.
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BroyledNutts

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #123 on: March 13, 2018, 01:50:27 pm »

I wonder where some of you think this stuff up

.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2018, 12:10:46 pm by BroyledNutts »
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Karma

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #124 on: March 13, 2018, 02:03:11 pm »

Take what ESPN says with a grain of salt.  They have and always will be Hog haters. 

This is not your Brad Steven's Butler team.  Yes, they are tough.  But lets not act like they are the Butler teams of years past.  This is more than a winnable game for Arkansas if they come out and play like we know they can. 
Some of you are so small minded. If I said "ESPN hates Kansas State" you would laugh, because ESPN doesn't care one way or the other about them. Same with us. You just want to feel persecuted.
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OkieBack

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Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #125 on: March 13, 2018, 02:14:01 pm »

ESPN's BPI was about worthless projecting our late-season conference finish, so accept the validity of this at your own risk. Personally, I think some of you are getting caught up in the Butler name based on past performance under much better coaches. They had to hire this guy in June (!!) to replace their previous coach (took the Ohio State job after Matta was suddenly fired). This isn't your usual, dangerous Butler team.

I thought I was getting caught up in the Butler name too.  Then I went back and started reading their stats and who they beat and got beat by.  Just similar to Arkansas, but the Hogs have been hotter as of lately than Butler.

If records are accurate then Hogs should prevail but not by allot.  I'm just trying to take the conservative approach and hope the Hogs take no one lightly.  So no matter who they play... don't read the news, play your game, and give 100%.  TCB.
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logic

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #126 on: March 13, 2018, 09:36:13 pm »

Vegas is trying to make money and they know come Tournament time people will lay down money on names like Butler, Witcha St and Gonzaga
That is not how it works.  They want close to same amount bet on both team and they take their percentage.  And, overall, people placing bets are pretty darn accurate because, although talk is cheap, their money is on the line.
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logic

Re: Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler
« Reply #127 on: March 13, 2018, 09:44:19 pm »

I know it's probably already been said but Butler has a 61% chance of winning, we have a 39%, a top 26 team shouldn't have that, I really do believe we got screwed now
The 61% is garbage because you can't place bets getting those odds.  You can bet on the Money-line and the money-line gives Butler a 53.5% chance of winning.
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