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Author Topic: Butler Stats, Records, Roster and more  (Read 8478 times)

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jgphillips3

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Re: About Butler
« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2018, 10:41:30 pm »

If the game is called fair and we shoot just decent, weíll win and move on. 
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BannerMountainMan

Re: About Butler
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2018, 10:43:44 pm »

We have struggled the most when the other team has a big that can play tall against Gafford and move him around combined with another player or two with a lot of length.  When we play teams we match up with height, we have played very well minus a couple of games.  Butler appears to be a good matchup for us unless they shoot lights out like TN did Saturday.
on the road, we aren't on the road anymore
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popcornhog

Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2018, 10:52:28 pm »

I believe I just saw that stat on espn, FWIW, which is very little. Just interesting.
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BannerMountainMan

Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2018, 10:57:28 pm »

They are always a 2-5 seed LOL and got a different coach now sooo...
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2018, 11:02:28 pm »

They are always a 2-5 seed LOL and got a different coach now sooo...

2-5 is not 10 or higher so it's irrelevant
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Breems

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Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #55 on: March 12, 2018, 12:23:12 am »

Records


Notable Results


Record breakdown with scores

Our body of work is fairly similar. A few good wins and a few blowouts. Butler's win vs. Villanova stands out, but that was back in December. Villanova beat them by 19 2 days ago and by 11 in February.

Roster and Player Stats


From his stats and watching some game film today, Kelan Martin is the real deal - size, rebounding, quickness, handles, shooting, and FT%. He'll get his. Their roster looks small-ish, especially on the perimeter aside from Martin. Not sure if that translates to quickness. Hopefully Gafford can control the paint.

Team Stats
Blue stats benefit us, red stats benefit Butler. I realize now that could be confusing given the team colors, but I was going for red = bad.

Offense


Pace is pretty close. They're a decent offensive team, but we're better, especially given our elite 3P%. They take good care of the ball which might neutralize our pressure defense unless they have little to no experience against similar defensive styles. They're a much better FT shooting team but rank near the bottom of the nation in FTAs.

Defense


Neither team is a defensive juggernaut, but the edge goes to Butler. However, their 3PT defense ranks near the bottom of the nation which bodes well for us. The block numbers reinforce my hope that we can control the paint and Barford/Macon can drive effectively.

Rebounding


No clear rebounding advantage here which is good.

Analysis
Stats never tell the whole story, but my first impression is this is a good matchup for us. When Barford, Macon, and Gafford can get shots off in the paint, it's usually a good night for us. Butler shouldn't limit us on the perimeter. Players like Martin can take over games, so our defense will need to be on its best behavior.
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RealHog

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #56 on: March 12, 2018, 12:51:15 am »

They are by far the most under seeded team according to Kenpom. For reference KP has us at 37. Other 10 seeds are:
25. Butler
39. Texas (7-10 game in Nashville with Cincy at the 2, I have no idea why we didnít get this one)
47. Oklahoma
63. Providence
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #57 on: March 12, 2018, 01:06:41 am »

Stats have a way of returning to the mean. Basically, they are more apt to lose most of their next 10 first round games to level out this stat.
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Tejano Jawg

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #58 on: March 12, 2018, 01:25:50 am »

Good job with all that, Breems. I'll come back to this when the game gets closer.
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Randohoggie

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #59 on: March 12, 2018, 01:30:34 am »

Stats have a way of returning to the mean. Basically, they are more apt to lose most of their next 10 first round games to level out this stat.

When you say they are more apt to lose, you are talking about probabilities.  That's not how probabilities work at all.  Not even close.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #60 on: March 12, 2018, 05:02:52 am »

No one seems to like my question, what is the record under the new coach in post season?  All these other records are with NBA coaches and talent.   This. Ew coach and players have little to do with any of the butler records being mentioned. 
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hawgdavis

Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #61 on: March 12, 2018, 05:23:40 am »

No one seems to like my question, what is the record under the new coach in post season?  All these other records are with NBA coaches and talent.   This. Ew coach and players have little to do with any of the butler records being mentioned. 

Nothing, and they donít match up well with us.

The reason no one will answer is it doesnít fit in with most of these peopleís doom and gloom outlook. They (most not all on here ) try to find evey reason and way we can lose to who ever fill in the blank opponent is and donít go any further to get all the facts. So the info you provided is irrelevant in their minds because we canít compete with the great and Powerful Butler.
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hogfanny

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #62 on: March 12, 2018, 07:01:05 am »

Breems, you are a good man.  How about purdue?
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SSFrazorback

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #63 on: March 12, 2018, 07:14:28 am »

So weíre 7-8 vs top 50 and they are 2-5. How is it then that they have a stronger strength of schedule?
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #64 on: March 12, 2018, 07:23:47 am »

When you say they are more apt to lose, you are talking about probabilities.  That's not how probabilities work at all.  Not even close.

I am not talking about probabilities. I am talking about the idea of diminishing returns.
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Mellon Collie

Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #65 on: March 12, 2018, 07:40:55 am »

So weíre 7-8 vs top 50 and they are 2-5. How is it then that they have a stronger strength of schedule?

playing villanova and xavier twice in the reg seaason helped with that.
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rzrbk4life

Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #66 on: March 12, 2018, 07:57:55 am »

Good work. +1 breems
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Hog Pharm

Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #67 on: March 12, 2018, 08:13:08 am »

Iím trying to figure out how theyíre 5-10 in their last 12  :P
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elksnort

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #68 on: March 12, 2018, 08:21:15 am »

I guess Kelan Martin can be guarded by a host of players, Gabe, Hall, Bailey, ....
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hogsanity

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #69 on: March 12, 2018, 08:22:50 am »

Looks like Butler is not a great 3pt shooting team and they do not have a dynamic PG either. those two things favor the Hogs. Also looks like they are not a killer on the boards either.
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The_Iceman

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #70 on: March 12, 2018, 08:30:43 am »

I guess Kelan Martin can be guarded by a host of players, Gabe, Hall, Bailey, ....

This is where we will miss Dustin Thomas. We should definitely guard him with our 4's, and let Gafford bring weakside help.
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Ironhawg

Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #71 on: March 12, 2018, 08:44:11 am »

Iím trying to figure out how theyíre 5-10 in their last 12  :P

New math.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #72 on: March 12, 2018, 08:48:21 am »

Inconsistent like the Hogs were at times.  Not the solid defensive team Butler was in some recent past seasons. 

When we lose this season itís lose big.  I donít see Butler being able to do that. 
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Polecat

Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #73 on: March 12, 2018, 09:03:30 am »

Macon needs to have big games in the tourney. Gotta have our Big 3 playing well at the same time to advance
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Hawg Red

Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #74 on: March 12, 2018, 09:04:44 am »

No one seems to like my question, what is the record under the new coach in post season?  All these other records are with NBA coaches and talent.   This. Ew coach and players have little to do with any of the butler records being mentioned.

I know you know this yourself, but I'll just answer it for everyone else.

LaVall Jordan, Butler's head coach, has yet to coach an NCAA tournament game.
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Hawg Red

Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #75 on: March 12, 2018, 09:07:27 am »

Butler analysis: They're screwed.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #76 on: March 12, 2018, 09:12:56 am »

Butler due to lose.  Hogs way past due for a Sw16 or E8.  Iím not going get into these nerd arguments about probabilities.  I like my more superstitious methods.
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itsonlyagame

Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #77 on: March 12, 2018, 09:39:14 am »

Never underestimate a basketball team from Indiana that plays its home games in the arena where they filmed the final scene in "Hoosiers".
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HamHands

Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #78 on: March 12, 2018, 10:19:06 am »

About to be 10-2!
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rljjr

Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #79 on: March 12, 2018, 10:49:57 am »

Anyone else notice that Butler should have been a 9 seed by virtue of how the NCAA graded and ranked the teams?
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Randohoggie

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2018, 11:06:45 am »

I am not talking about probabilities. I am talking about the idea of diminishing returns.

Inapplicable.
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Randohoggie

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Re: Butler is 9-1 in the first round when seeded 10 or higher
« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2018, 11:09:07 am »

I am not talking about probabilities. I am talking about the idea of diminishing returns.

Here's the deal.  Diminishing returns is a concept that doesn't apply at all to this.

Those other 10 games have no bearing on this game.  At all.  Nothing that happened in those games makes any particular outcome in this game any more or less likely. 
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steveaustin69

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bigred223

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #83 on: March 12, 2018, 11:33:31 am »

This is where we will miss Dustin Thomas. We should definitely guard him with our 4's, and let Gafford bring weakside help.

Bailey is a better defender than Thomas, imo.
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Breems

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #84 on: March 12, 2018, 11:53:31 am »

Butler analysis: They're screwed.

Think Daryl Macon can play a little... STRIIIIIIING MUSIC here in Motor City?
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hobhog

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #85 on: March 12, 2018, 12:41:46 pm »

Think Daryl Macon can play a little... STRIIIIIIING MUSIC here in Motor City?

Think we'd be better off loading Motown music, or maybe some Ted Nugent!

Great analysis above BTW
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OkieBack

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #86 on: March 12, 2018, 12:53:30 pm »

Good job with all that, Breems. I'll come back to this when the game gets closer.

Yes, great breakdown Breems.  As long as Butler isn't some half-court, ball-control machine then I'll feel good about the Hogs chances.  From this point forward no player can take a vacation from being a defensive or scoring  threat.  It's go-time! 
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The_Iceman

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #87 on: March 12, 2018, 01:03:59 pm »

Bailey is a better defender than Thomas, imo.

Full court, yes. Half court one-on-one, I don't think so.
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hawgsalot

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Re: Butler Analysis - Record, Roster, and Stats
« Reply #88 on: March 12, 2018, 02:11:23 pm »

They are by far the most under seeded team according to Kenpom. For reference KP has us at 37. Other 10 seeds are:
25. Butler
39. Texas (7-10 game in Nashville with Cincy at the 2, I have no idea why we didnít get this one)
47. Oklahoma
63. Providence

I watched the Texas vs butler game and butler got ran out of the gym.  I would rather play butler no doubt.
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skinnypig

Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #89 on: March 12, 2018, 04:09:12 pm »

Well
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_Hamlet_

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Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2018, 04:20:22 pm »

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GuvHog

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Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2018, 04:50:49 pm »

They have two good guards just like us

Not correct. Arkansas starts 3 guards (Beard, Macon, Barford), Bailey at Forward, and Gafford at Center..
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steveaustin69

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Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2018, 04:55:23 pm »

Not correct. Arkansas starts 3 guards (Beard, Macon, Barford), Bailey at Forward, and Gafford at Center..

Did he say what they start?
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WMHawgfan

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Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2018, 04:57:32 pm »

Their guards are pretty good, but its the Forward Martin that you have to watch out for. Saw them play Villanova twice and that guy was filling it up from nba range. We can't let him go off on us.
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The real Hogules

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Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #94 on: March 12, 2018, 05:07:31 pm »

Their guards are pretty good, but its the Forward Martin that you have to watch out for. Saw them play Villanova twice and that guy was filling it up from nba range. We can't let him go off on us.

I think that we can force him off the three point line and Gafford can protect the rim, provided one of his teammates will pick up Daniel's man on the switch, to prevent the easy basket. We just really need to control the boards on both ends of the court. Force it inside to D.G. and if he's covered up let him toss it back out to an open shooter and set up for a potential rebound.
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niels_boar

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Butler statistical rankings in Big East play
« Reply #95 on: March 12, 2018, 05:34:56 pm »

It's difficult to translate statistics between the Big East and SEC.  They are night and day.  Generally the Big East is much faster paced.  No team averaged fewer than 70 possessions per game in BE-only play.  Only three (Ole Miss, Auburn, and Arkansas) did so in the SEC.  The Big East offensive numbers are huge relative to the SEC.  Likewise, the SEC looks much stingier on D. 

What combination of officiating, good BE O, bad BE D, bad SEC O, and good SEC D is responsible is anybody's guess.  There are a lot of striking differences.  For instance, the BE shoots markedly fewer FTAs.  Providence leads the BE in FTA rate, but their rate would only be 6th in the SEC.  Only one BE team  St. John's holds opponents under 50% on deuces, as opposed to over half of the SEC.  The BE would seem to have been lacking in interior D.  St. John's lead the BE in block rate but would only be 8th in the SEC.  Interestingly St. John's is the only other Pomeroy top-30 D in the BE, and they also led the BE in forcing TOs.

With that in mind Butler's rankings out of 10 teams in the BE:

Offense

points per possession - 3rd (1.12)
2FG% -   4th (54%)
pos per 2FG - 1st (3.4)
3FG% - 6th (36%)
pos per 3FG - 4th (8.4)
EFG% - 4th  (54%)
ORB% -  8th (20%)
FT% -  2nd (79%)
pos per FTA - 7th (4.3)  shoot FTs well but get there rarely
pos per TO - 2nd (7.1)


The closest analog on O in the SEC is probably UF.  In fact, my guess is that the UF game was good prep for Butler.


Defense

points per possession - 6th (1.08)
2FG% -   3rd (51%)
pos per 2FG - 3rd (3.80)
3FG% - 7th (37%)
pos per 3FG - 4th (9.2)
EFG% - 7th  (53%)
DRB% -  3rd (78%)
pos per FTA - 9th (3.3) 
pos per TO - 3rd (5.7)
pos per block - 7th (28)

Their style of defense in which they force TOs and rebound well but surrender high FG percentages and foul a lot looks statistically similar to South Carolina.


The offensive and defensive efficiencies of Butler and Arkansas look similar in conference.  Arkansas' offense probably faced better defense in the SEC.  Butler's defense probably faced better offense in the Big East.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 05:49:10 pm by niels_boar »
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40MINSOFHELL

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Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2018, 05:39:13 pm »

Their guards are good but ours are better.
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niels_boar

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Re: Butler statistical rankings in Big East play
« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2018, 06:08:15 pm »

The matchup models not surprisingly look like a tossup.  The result certainly looks to be within the noise of x-factor having a career game or star A having a clunker of a game.  For a more wonky explanation keep reading.

When I run the matchup models on how Arkansas has fared against its opponents, it spits out a win against a team with Butler's profile.  However, the opposite is true when I run the same procedure for Butler against its schedule and run the prediction on Arkansas.  Butler wins.   In other words, both teams have fared well against teams that look like the other.  Both margins are within the standard error.  The Arkansas model is statistically significant with a fairly high correlation between predicted margin and actual margin on the season, whereas I have been unable to find a Butler model that would be considered statistically significant.  So, there's that.

The Arkansas models generally underestimate Arkansas down the stretch. The Butler models overestimate Butler down the stretch, which would jibe with Arkansas surging and Butler sputtering into the NCAAT, but we know that can be meaningless in one off. 
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razorback1829

Re: How does Butler play?
« Reply #98 on: March 12, 2018, 06:11:13 pm »

Their guards are good but ours are better.

No. They aren't.
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Dr. Starcs

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Re: Butler statistical rankings in Big East play
« Reply #99 on: March 12, 2018, 06:16:16 pm »

It's difficult to translate statistics between the Big East and SEC.  They are night and day.  Generally the Big East is much faster paced.  No team averaged fewer than 70 possessions per game in BE-only play.  Only three (Ole Miss, Auburn, and Arkansas) did so in the SEC.  The Big East offensive numbers are huge relative to the SEC.  Likewise, the SEC looks much stingier on D. 

What combination of officiating, good BE O, bad BE D, bad SEC O, and good SEC D is responsible is anybody's guess.  There are a lot of striking differences.  For instance, the BE shoots markedly fewer FTAs.  Providence leads the BE in FTA rate, but their rate would only be 6th in the SEC.  Only one BE team  St. John's holds opponents under 50% on deuces, as opposed to over half of the SEC.  The BE would seem to have been lacking in interior D.  St. John's lead the BE in block rate but would only be 8th in the SEC.  Interestingly St. John's is the only other Pomeroy top-30 D in the BE, and they also led the BE in forcing TOs.

With that in mind Butler's rankings out of 10 teams in the BE:

Offense

points per possession - 3rd (1.12)
2FG% -   4th (54%)
pos per 2FG - 1st (3.4)
3FG% - 6th (36%)
pos per 3FG - 4th (8.4)
EFG% - 4th  (54%)
ORB% -  8th (20%)
FT% -  2nd (79%)
pos per FTA - 7th (4.3)  shoot FTs well but get there rarely
pos per TO - 2nd (7.1)


The closest analog on O in the SEC is probably UF.  In fact, my guess is that the UF game was good prep for Butler.


Defense

points per possession - 6th (1.08)
2FG% -   3rd (51%)
pos per 2FG - 3rd (3.80)
3FG% - 7th (37%)
pos per 3FG - 4th (9.2)
EFG% - 7th  (53%)
DRB% -  3rd (78%)
pos per FTA - 9th (3.3) 
pos per TO - 3rd (5.7)
pos per block - 7th (28)

Their style of defense in which they force TOs and rebound well but surrender high FG percentages and foul a lot looks statistically similar to South Carolina.


The offensive and defensive efficiencies of Butler and Arkansas look similar in conference.  Arkansas' offense probably faced better defense in the SEC.  Butler's defense probably faced better offense in the Big East.

Good info. Can you do a side by side with our sec ranks?
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