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Author Topic: Gafford isn't ready  (Read 5198 times)

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KlubhouseKonnected

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #100 on: March 11, 2018, 01:17:11 pm »

So, if Gafford is even the 20th pick (most mocks I've seen have him in the 15-20 range), he stands to make $5.5M as a 20-22 year old kid while dedicating every hour of his "work" day to developing his craft.  The 15th pick is guaranteed to make $7M.

Hard to pass that up.  How many of us, after our freshman year in college, would tell a company "no" if they came to us with a 3-year, $5M-$7M contract ready to be signed?

Not nobody
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k.c.hawg

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #101 on: March 11, 2018, 01:52:51 pm »

My commission percentage was wrong. But 20th pick is $4 million for 2 year contract. So 2 mil per year.  Now compare that to a lottery pick. Id wait and cash in.

No one with DG's ability is going to be on a 2 year contract. His 3rd, 4th and 5th year options are going to be picked up just like BP's were. The quicker you get through those 5 years the better. If you can come back and 15 spots, yes it's worth it. If you come back and move from 18 to 13 you wasted your time.

The 20th slot last year paid $1.55m, $1.839m, $2.149M, 4th year option 52% raise ($3.26m), 5th year option 43% raise ($5.665m) . any team that uses a pick on a 19 year old big man is going to exercise those options so you could basically call his deal $14.3m for 5 years. The escalators on the upper pick go down significantly so yes, while the money is bigger, getting a year of team control behind you and higher escalators for lower first round picks soften the blow as the contract goes a long.
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cosmodrum

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #102 on: March 11, 2018, 02:09:58 pm »

There is zero chance he stays.
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Pinto

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #103 on: March 11, 2018, 03:05:36 pm »

There is zero chance he stays.

Pure speculation
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Pinto

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #104 on: March 11, 2018, 03:07:35 pm »

Of course they do. It can be a fee or a % but regardless it's capped at 3%. They ceratainly don't have as much work to do as they used to but there is still 30% to 40% of wiggle room in contracts from 120% of slot down to 80% of slot. That is worth paying for.

They dont get paid from the contract, only endorsements
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onebadrubi

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #105 on: March 11, 2018, 03:11:03 pm »

No one with DG's ability is going to be on a 2 year contract. His 3rd, 4th and 5th year options are going to be picked up just like BP's were. The quicker you get through those 5 years the better. If you can come back and 15 spots, yes it's worth it. If you come back and move from 18 to 13 you wasted your time.

The 20th slot last year paid $1.55m, $1.839m, $2.149M, 4th year option 52% raise ($3.26m), 5th year option 43% raise ($5.665m) . any team that uses a pick on a 19 year old big man is going to exercise those options so you could basically call his deal $14.3m for 5 years. The escalators on the upper pick go down significantly so yes, while the money is bigger, getting a year of team control behind you and higher escalators for lower first round picks soften the blow as the contract goes a long.

with those numbers at the 20th spot, Mike better start looking for another big guy today
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Grumpypenguin

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #106 on: March 11, 2018, 03:12:03 pm »

Wasn't there a quote from Gafford talking about being a #1 pick or lottery pick? I think he comes back next year if that's really a goal of his
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Letsroll1200

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #107 on: March 11, 2018, 03:18:28 pm »

I think Gafford compares to Tony Bradley of North Carolina and Jarrett Allen of Texas last season. Allen was drafted 22 and Bradley was drafted 29. I think Gafford is a late first round pick.
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cosmodrum

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #108 on: March 11, 2018, 03:25:39 pm »

Pure speculation

Pure accuracy.
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Pinto

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #109 on: March 11, 2018, 03:27:29 pm »

Pure accuracy.

He doesnt even know what hes going to do right now lol
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PonderinHog

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #110 on: March 11, 2018, 03:47:28 pm »

Today, I'd guesstimate there's a 25% chance he'll stay and 85% chance he'll go, but please don't hold me to that.
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Soooie21

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #111 on: March 11, 2018, 04:00:38 pm »

Yes - give me Bird's Celtics, Magic's Lakers, Jordan's Bulls, the Jazz with Malone / Stockton and the Detroit Bad Boys any day over what the NBA is now.
Agree..
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alohawg

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #112 on: March 11, 2018, 04:01:41 pm »

In the long term, he'd be best advised to but insurance and stay one more year. Muscle up, learn some post moves and be a lottery pick next year.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #113 on: March 11, 2018, 04:02:48 pm »

Today, I'd guesstimate there's a 25% chance he'll stay and 85% chance he'll go, but please don't hold me to that.

Can I borrow your extra 10% and say he plays basketball next year?
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Soooie21

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #114 on: March 11, 2018, 04:04:24 pm »

Just stay and get your degree.....
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steveaustin69

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #115 on: March 11, 2018, 04:05:36 pm »

Just stay and get your degree.....

Why...
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Soooie21

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #116 on: March 11, 2018, 04:06:36 pm »

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thebignasty

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #117 on: March 11, 2018, 04:07:10 pm »

My commission percentage was wrong. But 20th pick is $4 million for 2 year contract. So 2 mil per year.  Now compare that to a lottery pick. Id wait and cash in.

Or stay and get hurt and never make a dime.  Or stay and not improve his stock and lose a year of earning potential. Or stay and have a bad year and fall into the second round.


The point of this is that there is risk. If was as cut and dried as you present it, you'd be right.
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thebignasty

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #118 on: March 11, 2018, 04:07:33 pm »

Why not...

the answer is literally millions of dollars.
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PonderinHog

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #119 on: March 11, 2018, 04:07:46 pm »

Can I borrow your extra 10% and say he plays basketball next year?
Nope, I may need it.   >:(
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HOGINTENNESSEE

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #120 on: March 11, 2018, 04:08:29 pm »

My commission percentage was wrong. But 20th pick is $4 million for 2 year contract. So 2 mil per year.  Now compare that to a lottery pick. Id wait and cash in.

Or then you may get hurt and never have the chance to cash in.

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txkhog

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #121 on: March 11, 2018, 04:09:11 pm »

In the long term, he'd be best advised to but insurance and stay one more year. Muscle up, learn some post moves and be a lottery pick next year.

Who on our staff can teach the kid post moves? Id love for him to stay but I think hes gone.
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MountieDawg

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #122 on: March 11, 2018, 04:09:53 pm »

My evaluation comes from watching the player and how he stacks up against his man.

Take today with Gafford against Tennessee for a single instance... Gafford had 8 points, 5 rebounds, and no assists and was 2-6 from the line, with no blocks.  Meanwhile, Daniel's herculean counterpart of UT, Admiral Schofield, pictured here, had 16 points, was 2-2 from 3 point land, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2-2 from the line, and defensively pushed Daniel around like a freshman in the game.  Mind you I am not an NBA scout, but, I kinda am.   

But there is n chance Admiral goes in the 1st round and Gaddord is automatic. 
 
 

There are a good handful of college power players out there this season that are physically NBA strong like Schofield.  Guys Gafford can't handle quite yet.  Today, I saw Gafford dominated by a guy he will face on the NBA floor.  And there are a lot of players like Schofield in the NBA.

Again, that's just what I saw today.  I can't tell you what the scout's eyes saw.  One look at the picture above and I can tell you without even seeing the picture of the other guy which one I will take first in a pick up game when choosing sides.  Some assessments are really that simple.  :)
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HOGINTENNESSEE

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #123 on: March 11, 2018, 04:12:26 pm »

Who on our staff can teach the kid post moves? Id love for him to stay but I think hes gone.

Watkins works with the bigs. Moses, Portis and Marshawn all improved their post game here.

I agree he is gone. Just not for the reason you are hinting at
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Gonzo

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #124 on: March 11, 2018, 04:15:27 pm »

Today, I'd guesstimate there's a 25% chance he'll stay and 85% chance he'll go, but please don't hold me to that.

Basketball is 2/3 physical, and the other half is mental ;)


Go Hogs!
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steveaustin69

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #125 on: March 11, 2018, 04:16:34 pm »

Why not...

Lock in guaranteed millions, avoid risk of getting hurt/draft stock falling, one year closer to second NBA contract where the real money is made.

But yeah. He should stay....
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Hogz87

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #126 on: March 11, 2018, 04:22:14 pm »

Just stay and get your degree.....
His degree in what?  A job that might pay him $75K/year if he's lucky?  Or, he could sign a contract this summer that would earn him at least $5.5M at the ages of 20, 21, and 22 and possibly more if whatever team that drafts him picks up his fourth year option.  At $75K/year, Gafford would have to work 73 years to make $5.5M. 
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alohawg

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #127 on: March 11, 2018, 04:26:39 pm »

Who on our staff can teach the kid post moves? Id love for him to stay but I think hes gone.

Wonder what old Joe Klein is doing these days? He had a few moves.
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Pinto

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #128 on: March 11, 2018, 04:29:06 pm »

Today, I'd guesstimate there's a 25% chance he'll stay and 85% chance he'll go, but please don't hold me to that.

*pulls out calculator*
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Soooie21

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #129 on: March 11, 2018, 04:46:38 pm »

Wonder what old Joe Klein is doing these days? He had a few moves.
You do understand I was joking....just a pipe dream...do miss the ole days when everyone had to stay the full term...
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alohawg

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #130 on: March 11, 2018, 04:48:18 pm »

You do understand I was joking....just a pipe dream...do miss the ole days when everyone had to stay the full term...

Understand I wasn't replying to you at all, just answering txkhog.
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Soooie21

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #131 on: March 11, 2018, 05:09:11 pm »

Understand I wasn't replying to you at all, just answering txkhog.
You had me worried....
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KlubhouseKonnected

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #132 on: March 11, 2018, 05:11:39 pm »

Who on our staff can teach the kid post moves? Id love for him to stay but I think hes gone.

Your mom
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KlubhouseKonnected

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #133 on: March 11, 2018, 05:16:50 pm »

My evaluation comes from watching the player and how he stacks up against his man.

Take today with Gafford against Tennessee for a single instance... Gafford had 8 points, 5 rebounds, and no assists and was 2-6 from the line, with no blocks.  Meanwhile, Daniel's herculean counterpart of UT, Admiral Schofield, pictured here, had 16 points, was 2-2 from 3 point land, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2-2 from the line, and defensively pushed Daniel around like a freshman in the game.  Mind you I am not an NBA scout, but, I kinda am.   

 
 

There are a good handful of college power players out there this season that are physically NBA strong like Schofield.  Guys Gafford can't handle quite yet.  Today, I saw Gafford dominated by a guy he will face on the NBA floor.  And there are a lot of players like Schofield in the NBA.

Again, that's just what I saw today.  I can't tell you what the scout's eyes saw.  One look at the picture above and I can tell you without even seeing the picture of the other guy which one I will take first in a pick up game when choosing sides.  Some assessments are really that simple.  :)

This is a very muddled post. I am sure you have a point but you did nt really communicate it effectively at all.
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alohawg

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #134 on: March 11, 2018, 05:18:15 pm »

You had me worried....

Now that does happen occasionally.  :)
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King Kong

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #135 on: March 11, 2018, 05:23:04 pm »

My commission percentage was wrong. But 20th pick is $4 million for 2 year contract. So 2 mil per year.  Now compare that to a lottery pick. Id wait and cash in.

1. A player only has so many miles they can put in a leg. So potentially a year wasted long term

2. No guarantees he is a lottery pick next year
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PonderinHog

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #136 on: March 11, 2018, 05:25:10 pm »

Just glad to see Schofield off the steroids...
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nonoffensiveposter

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #137 on: March 11, 2018, 05:27:12 pm »

Nothing in Mike Andersons system is going to help prepare him as an NBA big. Get out now rather than spend the next year being ignored by the guards and hoping you can make sportcenter on a bunch of fastbreaks and put backss
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AlmaHog2011

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #138 on: March 11, 2018, 09:20:09 pm »

with those numbers at the 20th spot, Mike better start looking for another big guy today

He needs a couple at least. I hope he is beating the bushes if not next year could be a disaster. Lets go get it this year and worry about next year after.
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RedBird5

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #139 on: March 11, 2018, 09:59:58 pm »

Agree.

In my assessment, Gafford isn't going to the NBA in 2018.  He will be back.  98 1/2% probability.  I think Daniel is smart enough himself to know he needs another year in college to fill out into big boy shoes, and he will benefit financially by it in the long haul.  He is still a little raw. 

Daniel needs to develop a better turn around jumper in the lane to play the power forward position in the NBA, which is likely where he'll play at the next level unless he grows two more inches.  Still, even at center, he needs to work on that same shot.  He has all the athletic ability, he just needs a little more work on his offensive skill set. 

Daniel won't go near in the lottery this season, (because he isn't top 6 in the land)...  But next season if he is dominant he will probably go top 10 at worst.  I'd be surprised if he went in the first round if he came out now.  Late first round at best.


Respectfully disagree.  Kids get drafted on talent and potential.  His is through the roof
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TazorTusk

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #140 on: March 11, 2018, 10:02:24 pm »

I've scanned this thread and could have missed something.  But, I'd guess that maybe the question I have means that what I'm asking about does not exist.

At one time wasn't there an option for a promising college athlete like Gafford to take out an insurance policy guaranteeing a goodly sum of money should he decide to stay in college for another year?

Is my memory faulty?  If it is not, why is this no longer an option?

Tazor
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texas tush hog

Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #141 on: March 12, 2018, 02:54:14 am »

Who on our staff can teach the kid post moves? Id love for him to stay but I think hes gone.


Watkins. Nuff said.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #142 on: March 12, 2018, 05:00:44 am »

I've scanned this thread and could have missed something.  But, I'd guess that maybe the question I have means that what I'm asking about does not exist.

At one time wasn't there an option for a promising college athlete like Gafford to take out an insurance policy guaranteeing a goodly sum of money should he decide to stay in college for another year?

Is my memory faulty?  If it is not, why is this no longer an option?

Tazor

It is still an option, often used in football though.  It protects against injury and then going backwards in draft from injury, like the lattimore kid from South Carolina a few years back that really messed up his knee.
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riccoar

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #143 on: March 12, 2018, 07:11:13 am »

1. A player only has so many miles they can put in a leg. So potentially a year wasted long term

2. No guarantees he is a lottery pick next year
Joe Johnson has been there 17 years.  Gafford is gonna play a long time.  Dude, if Porter is a top 5 pick for 2018?  Gafford is set for 2019.  ONLY upside to me is if he goes this year, he doesn't have to suffer through a sucky ass team for 5-6 years.
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steveaustin69

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #144 on: March 12, 2018, 07:44:17 am »

Joe Johnson has been there 17 years.  Gafford is gonna play a long time.  Dude, if Porter is a top 5 pick for 2018?  Gafford is set for 2019.  ONLY upside to me is if he goes this year, he doesn't have to suffer through a sucky ass team for 5-6 years.

Average career length is 5 years. You're really touting one of the most versatile scoring wings of the past two decades as your example of longevity? Joe's game doesn't rely on athleticism; Gafford's does.

Only upside? What about money now, mitigating risk, and getting closer to your next contract? These have been said ad nauseam. If you're just here to argue I'll let you be, but if you'd like to go do the present value math discounting for potential injury and/or stagnating draft position be my guest. I think you'll find that it's likely in his best interest to leave.
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hogsanity

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #145 on: March 12, 2018, 08:31:03 am »

Joe Johnson has been there 17 years.  Gafford is gonna play a long time.  Dude, if Porter is a top 5 pick for 2018?  Gafford is set for 2019.  ONLY upside to me is if he goes this year, he doesn't have to suffer through a sucky ass team for 5-6 years.

And you know why Porter is a top 5 pick? Because of POTENTIAL. NBA drafts on POTENTIAL. They see a guy like Gafford and a team that is not bad but not great, somewhere in the middle, thinks " this guy has potential and no way will be able to get him next year so lets get him now. So he puts his name in the draft, gets great feedback, maybe a team somehow puts a bug in his ear about how much they like his game, and he goes. They draft him 15ish, he gets 5-7 mil for 2 years plus 3 yrs of club options at escalating $, gets paid to learn on the job, and when he is $25 he is ready for his second contract where he might get $10 mil a year.

But no, no, the fans of his college team think he should stay so they must be right. Even though they want him to stay so their team won't be horrible next year due to having 8 new players because of once again having a grossly unbalanced roster.
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riccoar

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #146 on: March 12, 2018, 08:56:42 am »

Average career length is 5 years. You're really touting one of the most versatile scoring wings of the past two decades as your example of longevity? Joe's game doesn't rely on athleticism; Gafford's does.

Only upside? What about money now, mitigating risk, and getting closer to your next contract? These have been said ad nauseam. If you're just here to argue I'll let you be, but if you'd like to go do the present value math discounting for potential injury and/or stagnating draft position be my guest. I think you'll find that it's likely in his best interest to leave.
Point being, he could go down climbing stairs.  Hell, if we are that worried about injury, sit him for the Tournament.  I don't care if he goes or stays.  So many unknowns.  But I think with the amount of guys his size in the draft, and him being a late comer, he would definitely go higher in 2019.  Your contract depends on your draft position.  So yeah, your prolonging pay, but your payout will be greater.  It's all a gamble.   
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steveaustin69

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #147 on: March 12, 2018, 09:01:05 am »

Point being, he could go down climbing stairs.  Hell, if we are that worried about injury, sit him for the Tournament.  I don't care if he goes or stays.  So many unknowns.  But I think with the amount of guys his size in the draft, and him being a late comer, he would definitely go higher in 2019.  Your contract depends on your draft position.  So yeah, your prolonging pay, but your payout will be greater.  It's all a gamble.

That's not 100%, you need to discount that future higher payout for the possibility it does not occur.  Again, do the math and prove me wrong.
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hogsanity

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #148 on: March 12, 2018, 09:12:35 am »

That's not 100%, you need to discount that future higher payout for the possibility it does not occur.  Again, do the math and prove me wrong.

To me it is kind of like the show deal or no deal. You are sitting there with 7mil. the only greater amt left on the board is 10mil but there are a lot of lesser amts. Logic says take the 7 as their are more poor outcomes than richer payouts.
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RealHog

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Re: Gafford isn't ready
« Reply #149 on: March 12, 2018, 09:41:43 am »

Jarrett Allen went 22nd last year. I dare someone tell me he is better than Gafford at this point last year. I DARE YOU!  I hope he does not come back.  He chose Arkansas and proved his worth to scouts.  Go make that money Big Dan!

Also have to keep in mind the relative strength of the draft. 2017 was really weak on bigs, 2018 is pretty dang strong, and a few other players who are better more polished dunk and D players than Gafford. Mo Bamba and Robert Williams especially. I think its 50/50 he stays at this point. He could be drafted at max 20, likely fringe 1st round, because of the potential for a Tyson Chandler type.
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