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Author Topic: Stars distribution  (Read 1492 times)

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195bc

Stars distribution
« on: February 07, 2018, 02:17:42 pm »

The top 6 school in the 2018 rankings (Georgia, Ohio St, Texas, Penn St, Clemson, USC) signed 24 of the 29 available 5-star recruits in this class (83% of the available 5-stars) and 83 of the 365 4-star recruits (23% of the 4-stars). So the top 6 each averaged signing 4 5-star recruits and 14 4-star recruits. That's incredible.

The top 10 schools (above mentioned plus Miami, Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame) signed 28 of 29 5-star recruits (97%) and 134 of 365 4-star recruits (37% of the 4-stars).

The top 15 schools (above mentioned plus Florida St, Auburn, Washington, LSU, Florida) finished off the last 5-star recruit and signed 197 out of 365 4-star recruits (54% of the 4-stars). So 15 schools signed more than half of the available 4-stars. That's an average of 13 4-stars per school.

The top 20 schools (above mentioned plus A&M, Oregon, UCLA, South Carolina, Michigan) signed 241 of the 365 4-star recruits (66% of the 4-stars).

So the remaining 45 power 5 schools (that number includes Notre Dame) fought over then remaining 34% of the 4-star recruits. Averaged out, that's 2.75 4-star recruits per remaining team. 

Another way of looking at it - the top 6.5% (top 10) signed 41% of the blue chips. Or the top 23% (top 15) signed 57% of the blue chips.


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Karma

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2018, 02:19:16 pm »

Wow. The rich do indeed get richer.
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GoHogs1091

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2018, 02:36:58 pm »

Alabama seemed to have a meh (meh for them) recruiting year.  The icing on the cake for their meh recruiting year was a highly ranked Outside Linebacker getting flipped from Alabama by another SEC school.

Clemson signed 2 of the top 3 overall ranked players in the nation (according to 247sports), a QB and a DE.

Texas did surprisingly well, but coaching flux at Texas A&M probably helped Texas some.

Georgia did really well, but that state was loaded with high school talent this year.  They did pull some players out of the State of Florida (Smart developed connections down there when he was at Alabama).  It also helped Georgia in Florida that Florida State and Florida had a head coaching change.
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redeye

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2018, 02:48:06 pm »

Interesting analysis!

A few years ago, Clemson had a worse track record than Arkansas with recruiting.  Everyone has to start somewhere, so hopefully we'll be up there soon, too.
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GoHogs1091

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2018, 03:08:37 pm »

Interesting analysis!

A few years ago, Clemson had a worse track record than Arkansas with recruiting.  Everyone has to start somewhere, so hopefully we'll be up there soon, too.

Clemson signed the #1 ranked player in 5 states (South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and Ohio).  It was close to being 6 states (one of their DE signees is the #2 ranked player in North Carolina).

Swinney, Venables, Scott, and Elliott are elite recruiters.
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HawgTrough

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2018, 03:15:09 pm »

Interesting analysis!

A few years ago, Clemson had a worse track record than Arkansas with recruiting.  Everyone has to start somewhere, so hopefully we'll be up there soon, too.

according to 247 recruiting (going all the way back to 2004), ARK has an average finish of 24th overall. 2010 was the worst by far with the 41st ranked class. 2007 was the only other year outside the 20's (36).

According to them, we are at #53 right now.
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hawg1221

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2018, 03:18:09 pm »

After 2007 Saban's first year, Alabama has never finished below 3rd in recruiting. Alabama was 6th last I saw. Also,  Georgia had the most ever top 25 players at 7. Interesting. I'm going by ESPN.
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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2018, 03:26:27 pm »

According to them, we are at #53 right now.
I assume you are looking at total points which basically equates to us signing nine 0-star kids (to make it a class of 25 signees).  When was the last time Arkansas had a recruiting class anywhere near this small?  It is hard to blame CM for the small recruiting class when he has only been here two months.

Using out average star rating (per recruit) puts us more like 39th.

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Al Boarland

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2018, 03:40:58 pm »

Interesting analysis!

A few years ago, Clemson had a worse track record than Arkansas with recruiting.  Everyone has to start somewhere, so hopefully we'll be up there soon, too.

Have to figure out a way to differentiate ourself from the schools we recruit against to make a move like Clemson.
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195bc

Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2018, 04:00:59 pm »

There are coaches out there they can change a program - Gundy, Patterson, Leach, etc. Then there are those that can change a program into a true powerhouse not only with scheme but with recruiting never before seen at that school. A great example is Briles at Baylor and Kelly's time at Oregon. Although Briles recruited and protected rapists.

An argument could be made that Morris will be one of those coaches. From the looks of previous recruiting rankings, Clemson was not elite (in on-field performance or in recruiting) under Dabo until he hired Morris. We have to hope so. An incredible coach is the only way for Arkansas to be a national power (Petrino).
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nwahogfan1

Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2018, 04:44:50 pm »

I hope Morris is the Coach who can recruit better than any coach we have had in a long time.  As long as he can recruit Coaches who are great recruiters it will help a bunch.  But slso getting players who are the right fit is so important.

I wish Mike  Anderson would follow this pattern of recruiting by signing at least one Great Recruiter.
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1highhog

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2018, 05:28:19 pm »

Interesting analysis!

A few years ago, Clemson had a worse track record than Arkansas with recruiting.  Everyone has to start somewhere, so hopefully we'll be up there soon, too.

The most important thing that Clemson has that we don't have going for us, they are right smack dab in recruiting territory that we are never going to be apart of.  Our state just doesn't have the population density to field the amount of recruits they are surrounded with.
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Hogindasticks

Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2018, 07:07:27 pm »

This is exactly what Coach Morris is going to turn around.....already has 125 offers out for 2019.  Thats about 1/2 of what most the of the SEC teams had out for the 2018 season....that means he has gotten a huge head start on next year. 
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HawgTrough

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2018, 01:53:03 pm »

I assume you are looking at total points which basically equates to us signing nine 0-star kids (to make it a class of 25 signees).  When was the last time Arkansas had a recruiting class anywhere near this small?  It is hard to blame CM for the small recruiting class when he has only been here two months.

Using out average star rating (per recruit) puts us more like 39th.



https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CompositeTeamRankings?Conference=SEC

for a team that is supposedly void of talent, it appears very little help is on the way.

And for the record, I feel that Morris and his staff did everything they could. But, the chances of Morris having early success are slim to non-existent. Hog fans are gonna have to be patient, and we aren't very good at that
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Hogindasticks

Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2018, 02:04:08 pm »

I think your wrong, the difference in the offense and defense will be instantly better.
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Pig in the Pokey

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2018, 02:06:27 pm »

Wow. The rich do indeed get richer.
about like our country . that is some ridiculous income inequality.
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31to6

Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2018, 03:32:46 pm »

Hog fans are gonna have to be patient, and we aren't very good at that
BS. We gave CBB 5 years and he'd still have his job if he had won 7 games this year.
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bennyl08

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2018, 03:49:24 pm »

BS. We gave CBB 5 years and he'd still have his job if he had won 7 games this year.

No he wouldn't have been. Heck, 8 games and he may have still been fired. This was a 9 win or bust season for him. If he couldn't get over the hump this year, he was never going to do it and would not have remained the coach.
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bennyl08

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2018, 03:49:37 pm »

The top 6 school in the 2018 rankings (Georgia, Ohio St, Texas, Penn St, Clemson, USC) signed 24 of the 29 available 5-star recruits in this class (83% of the available 5-stars) and 83 of the 365 4-star recruits (23% of the 4-stars). So the top 6 each averaged signing 4 5-star recruits and 14 4-star recruits. That's incredible.

The top 10 schools (above mentioned plus Miami, Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame) signed 28 of 29 5-star recruits (97%) and 134 of 365 4-star recruits (37% of the 4-stars).

The top 15 schools (above mentioned plus Florida St, Auburn, Washington, LSU, Florida) finished off the last 5-star recruit and signed 197 out of 365 4-star recruits (54% of the 4-stars). So 15 schools signed more than half of the available 4-stars. That's an average of 13 4-stars per school.

The top 20 schools (above mentioned plus A&M, Oregon, UCLA, South Carolina, Michigan) signed 241 of the 365 4-star recruits (66% of the 4-stars).

So the remaining 45 power 5 schools (that number includes Notre Dame) fought over then remaining 34% of the 4-star recruits. Averaged out, that's 2.75 4-star recruits per remaining team. 

Another way of looking at it - the top 6.5% (top 10) signed 41% of the blue chips. Or the top 23% (top 15) signed 57% of the blue chips.

Excellent post.
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Redhogs

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2018, 04:02:57 pm »

about like our country . that is some ridiculous income inequality.
That's because some work harder than others...physically and mentally. Not everybody is born the same. Of course communism would fix that, everyone would be poor, but equal. Venezuela would be an excellent example of what happens when you destroy ambition, among other things.
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Karma

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2018, 04:12:22 pm »

That's because some work harder than others...physically and mentally. Not everybody is born the same. Of course communism would fix that, everyone would be poor, but equal. Venezuela would be an excellent example of what happens when you destroy ambition, among other things.
I won't derail the thread by asking if you think all success can be ascribed to working harder.
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Fan1958

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2018, 04:55:20 pm »

about like our country . that is some ridiculous income inequality.

Well damn.  Let's soak the rich by limiting any school that signs more than two 5s and six 4s in a single recruiting cycle to zero 5s and two 4s for each of the next two recruiting cycles. That'll show 'em.

What I find amazing is the fact the traditional powers were powers way before some snot nosed jock sniffer came up with recruiting rankings to separate the gullible from their $$.  Some of you think it's sour grapes when a coach says they don't pay any attention to stars.  They are most likely telling the truth.

I wonder how Knute Rockne, Bear Bryant, Bud Wilkinson, Bob Devaney, Tom Osborne, et al ever figured out who they should be recruiting.
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31to6

Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2018, 05:27:55 pm »

No he wouldn't have been. Heck, 8 games and he may have still been fired. This was a 9 win or bust season for him. If he couldn't get over the hump this year, he was never going to do it and would not have remained the coach.
I honestly don't think so. Either way, 5 years with one decent season is more than enough "patience".
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bennyl08

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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2018, 06:20:35 pm »

I honestly don't think so. Either way, 5 years with one decent season is more than enough "patience".

Given the roster and team situation at the time, I think 5 years was exactly the right amount of time. CBB showed plenty of reasons why he could have been a phenomenal coach here, but he also showed plenty of red flags as well. Very few people thought the 2016 team would win more than 7 games at the start of the season and by the end, the vast majority were pissed that we didn't win 9 with those terrible collapses to end the season.

With the shape of our roster right now, I think 3 years is what it should take for Morris to show whether he stays here longer or not. Maybe a fourth depending on if we have some really bad luck. However, He's starting off with a win now roster unlike Petrino or Bielema had. Only question is can he playcall and coach and not lose momentum recruiting. No need to wait for him to build the roster.
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Re: Stars distribution
« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2018, 06:23:44 pm »

Maybe those recruits are beginning to think Saban won’t be there all four years.
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