Hogville Info
• 9,755,884 Posts
• 394,795 Topics
• 22,262 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Listen NOW:Game ON 103.3 
  
Pages: [1] 2 3   Go Down

Author Topic: Bubble Time  (Read 11544 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Adam Stokes

Bubble Time
« on: February 07, 2018, 12:10:55 pm »

This was compiled using BracketMatrix's combination of 102 brackets and updated before Tuesday night's game. The SC game was a low ceiling low floor kind of game, in that it only would've moved the needle is we lost.

The teams listed are what I consider Bubble Teams, those with a project 9 seed or worse. I'll update it as games are won and teams shuffle in the bracket, and will likely continue to do so until we are projected better than a 9 seed or lose our 11th conference game. We could still be on the outside looking in at 8-10.

Tuesday results and Wednesday games:

+14 L Alabama @ Mississippi State
+13 Arizona State
+12 Texas A&M @ Auburn
+11 Louisville
+10 W Providence vs Georgetown
+9 W Missouri @ Ole Miss
+8 Washington
+7 W Arkansas vs South Carolina
+6 NC State @ Virginia Tech
+5 USC
+4 Houston
+3 W Boise State @ New Mexico
+2 Virginia Tech vs NC State
+1 Kansas State @ Texas
---- Bubble Line ----
-0 Middle Tennessee State (projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large)
-1 UCLA
-2 Syracuse
-3 SMU
-4 Marquette @ Seton Hall
-5 St Bonaventure vs Saint Louis
-6 LSU vs Florida
-7 Western Kentucky
-8 Georgia @ Vanderbilt
-9 W Mississippi State vs Alabama - Big Win, but still have a terrible SOS. Probably need to finish 4-2 in the SEC (11-7)  to be in the at-large conversation.
-10 Maryland @ Penn State

http://bracketmatrix.com/
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2018, 02:55:56 am »

SEC starting to fall into place. The eight contenders are getting more locked in, and it looks like MSU will be the team fighting for the 9th with Georgia struggling and LSU's low RPI.

Wednesday results and Thursday games:

---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Alabama
+13 Arizona State vs USC
+12 W Texas A&M @ Auburn - Huge win, should move them into safe for now
+11 Missouri
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Louisville vs Georgia Tech
+9 Providence
+8 Washington @ Oregon
+7 Arkansas
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 L NC State @ Virginia Tech
+5 Houston vs SMU
+4 USC @ Arizona State
+3 Boise State
+2 W Virginia Tech vs NC State
+1  Syracuse
---- Bubble Line ----
-0 Middle Tennessee State (projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large) vs Rice
-1 W Kansas State @ Texas - Big win, Texas was at +14, so they should be on this list in the coming days
-2 UCLA @ Arizona
-3 Western Kentucky
-4 SMU @ Houston
-5 Mississippi State
-6 L LSU @ Florida - LSU has 6 Top 50 wins, but their RPI (81) will be hard to overcome
-7 W St Bonaventure vs Saint Louis
-8 L Georgia @ Vanderbilt - Ouch, should keep Georgia out unless they go on a run
-9 Temple
-10 L Maryland @ Penn State
-11 W Marquette @ Seton Hall - Big road win vs a 5 Seed

http://bracketmatrix.com/
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2018, 08:08:19 am »

Notes:

- We rose up to +8 since Louisville dropped three spots as their Monday loss to Syracuse started to sink in. Should stay put before the weekend with Houston (good news) and Louisville winning.
- Had 4 of 5 OOC opponents win their games which is nice. Bumped our non-con SOS back into the Top 80 from around 100.
- A&M is currently off the bubble after their road win @ Auburn, up to a 7 seed from a 9 seed. Georgia is now out of all brackets, with LSU and MSU still trying to make some noise for a 9th SEC team. LSU has good Top 50 wins (6) and terrible RPI (81), MSU has decent RPI (55) but few Top 50 wins (3).


Bracket alignment before Thursday games and Thursday results:

---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 W Arizona State vs USC
+13 Missouri
+12 Alabama
+11 Texas
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Providence
+9 L Washington @ Oregon - Lost by 25 on the road. Oregon isn't terrible, but they aren't on a single bracket. Lunardi only had UW at +4, so they may be out now on many brackets.
+8 Arkansas
+7 W Louisville vs Georgia Tech
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 W Houston vs SMU
+5 NC State
+4 Kansas State
+3 L USC @ Arizona State
+2 Virginia Tech
+1 Boise State
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* W Middle Tennessee State vs Rice
-1 Syracuse
-2 Marquette - Their Seton Hall win took them from -11 to -2
-3 W UCLA @ Arizona - Huge road win, should put them in.
-4 St Bonaventure
-5 W Western Kentucky vs FAU
-6 Mississippi State
-7 Nebraska
-8 L SMU @ Houston
-9 Temple
-10 LSU
-11 Maryland

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 08:19:37 am by Adam Stokes »
Logged

ShadowHawg

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 19
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,623
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2018, 11:07:29 pm »

Enjoying this thread. Thanks for sharing.
Logged

Iwastherein1969

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 11
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 18,591
  • In honor of the Hog bats.BIG KNOCK, baby BIG KNOCK
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2018, 12:17:29 am »

Hogs will be a #6 seed because common sense says they are about to go on a run. What common sense one may ask ?  The Hogs have played with little to no urgency with losses to LSU, Miss St, Florida and Texas A&M. The seniors will realize that this is their last go around and the intensity level will go up starting with Vanderbilt later on this evening. The upperclassmen will lead the way. Barford, Macon and Thompson are about to get it going. You guys give up too soon. Hang in there, all is well, or will be soon.
Logged

hawgmasta

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Total likes: 0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2,149
  • I have to return some videotapes.
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2018, 01:57:26 am »

Hogs will be a #6 seed because common sense says they are about to go on a run. What common sense one may ask ?  The Hogs have played with little to no urgency with losses to LSU, Miss St, Florida and Texas A&M. The seniors will realize that this is their last go around and the intensity level will go up starting with Vanderbilt later on this evening. The upperclassmen will lead the way. Barford, Macon and Thompson are about to get it going. You guys give up too soon. Hang in there, all is well, or will be soon.

I sure hope so, love this thread keep it going please sir.
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2018, 09:18:01 am »

Bracket alignment before Saturday's games and weekend schedule:

---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 W Missouri vs Mississippi State
+13 W Michigan @ Wisconsin (Sunday)
+12 W Alabama vs Tennessee
+11 L Providence vs Depaul - Lost by 17 at home to 9-14 Depaul? Ouch, that's worse than if we lose to Vandy later. RPI dropped 14 spots with the loss.
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 L Texas @ TCU
+9 W Arkansas vs Vanderbilt - Nothing to gain, everything to lose
+8 W Houston vs Tulane (Sunday)
+7 W Louisville @ Pitt (Sunday)
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 L Washington @ Oregon State
+5 L UCLA @ Arizona State
+4 L Kansas State vs Texas Tech
+3 L USC @ Arizona
+2 W Virginia Tech @ #2 Virginia - Ugh. Virginia up by one, shooting a one & one with 9 seconds left, misses, VT gets a layup to win.
+1 L NC State vs UNC
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* W Middle Tennessee State vs North Texas
-1 L Boise State @ Utah State
-2 W Syracuse vs Wake Forest (Sunday)
-3 L Marquette @ St Johns - St John's has been killing it lately, but they are still only 2-11 in conference
-4 W Temple vs USF
-5 W Maryland vs Northwestern
-6 L Mississippi State @ Mizzou - MSU essentially out. Need to finish 5-1 to get back in IMO
-7 W St Bonaventure vs Richmond
-8 W Western Kentucky vs FL Atlantic
-9 L SMU vs #6 Cincinnati (Sunday) - 25 point home loss. Should fall off for a while.
-10 W LSU vs Ole Miss - LSU still hanging in there.

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/
« Last Edit: February 11, 2018, 07:48:27 pm by Adam Stokes »
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2018, 03:27:51 pm »

Reshuffled the lines from brackets that came out today. Good start with multiple teams around us losing.

Crazy game with MSU and Mizzou. MSU was down by 12 with 90 seconds left and forced overtime. Then they give up a 4 pt lead with a minute left to lose it. Since we play Mizzou twice vs just MSU once, we should want Mizzou to win, but I think it would've been cool to have MSU hang around a while and keep the 9 SEC teams dream alive a little longer.
Logged

Atlhogfan1

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18,980
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2018, 03:36:07 pm »

Reshuffled the lines from brackets that came out today. Good start with multiple teams around us losing.

Crazy game with MSU and Mizzou. MSU was down by 12 with 90 seconds left and forced overtime. Then they give up a 4 pt lead with a minute left to lose it. Since we play Mizzou twice vs just MSU once, we should want Mizzou to win, but I think it would've been cool to have MSU hang around a while and keep the 9 SEC teams dream alive a little longer.

Was a crazy ending.  Can’t believe they didn’t call the trip on MSU in regulation.  But Mizzou got a couple their way in OT. 

OU lost again.  Against ISU without Babb. 
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2018, 03:54:39 pm »

Was a crazy ending.  Can’t believe they didn’t call the trip on MSU in regulation.  But Mizzou got a couple their way in OT. 

OU lost again.  Against ISU without Babb. 

OSU somewhat made up for it by beating WV on the road. Hopefully OU can stay in the top 25.
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2018, 02:59:00 am »

Wow, could the day have gone much better? Other teams between -3 and +11 went 2-9 on the day and MTSU may not even count. I'll take it. Should move us up to a 9 seed while making it harder for us to drop going forward.
Logged

UAGolfer1981

  • Bench Warmer
  • ***
  • Total likes: 10
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 145
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2018, 02:14:22 pm »

Always enjoy your posts. Keep them coming!
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2018, 01:45:39 pm »

Now that we are closer to a 7 seed than missing the tournament, I went ahead and threw in the 8 seeds and cut down on the teams below the bubble.

Notes:

- Arkansas has essentially jumped up a seed this past week by holding serve against Vandy and SC. While we are +11 here, we didn't budge from +8 on Joe Lunardi's bracket. We can go 3-3 to finish out and likely make it. Losing to Ole Miss would be disappointing, but wouldn't drop us too far. Their RPI is in the 90's, wouldn't technically be a "bad loss" if we lost to them on the road.

- There was so many losses this weekend around the bubble line that is it still really fluid among those bottom teams.

- MSU still in the hunt for SEC seed #9, their last second loss to Mizzou didn't hurt as much as it should've since so many teams above them lost as well. -5 here and -7 on Joe Lunardi's bracket. I do think losing @ Vandy will essentially do them in unless they essentially win out the regular season.

Bracket alignment before Monday's games and schedule through Thursday:

---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 L TCU @ #20 West Virginia
+17 Alabama vs LSU (Tuesday)
+16 Nevada @ Boise State (Wednesday)
+15 Butler vs Georgetown (Thursday)
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Missouri vs Texas A&M (Tuesday)
+13 Michigan vs Iowa (Wednesday)
+12 Florida State vs #11 Clemson (Wednesday)
+11 Arkansas @ Ole Miss (Tuesday)
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Virginia Tech @ #12 Duke (Wednesday)
+9 Houston vs #5 Cincinnati (Thursday)
+8 L Texas vs Baylor - 2OT thriller
+7 Louisville
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 Providence vs #1 Villanova (Wednesday)
+5 UCLA vs Oregon State (Thursday)
+4 Syracuse vs NC State (Wednesday)
+3 Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (Wednesday)
+2 Washington vs Utah (Thursday)
+1 USC vs Oregon (Thursday)
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State @ South Miss (Thursday)
-1 NC State @ Syracuse (Wednesday)
-2 Boise State vs #24 Nevada (Wednesday)
-3 St Bonaventure @ La Salle (Tuesday)
-4 Temple @ #19 Wichita St (Thursday)
-5 Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt (Wednesday)
  |
-11 LSU @ Alabama (Tuesday)

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 07:13:17 am by Adam Stokes »
Logged

RazrRila99

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2018, 05:14:59 pm »

Fly in the ointment:  Where are the bubble busters?  The small con teams that always seem to push some P5 schools aside. 

Logged

99toLife

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 13
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 14,769
  • Crazy Times Make Crazy people Crazier!!!!
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2018, 06:04:52 pm »

Fly in the ointment:  Where are the bubble busters?  The small con teams that always seem to push some P5 schools aside.

They fill up most of the 12-16+ seeds...
Logged

bjeffersonhog

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2018, 06:38:41 pm »

It's going to be an interesting three weeks.  Besides ole miss the remaining teams on our schedule are all fighting for top 4 seeds in the SEC tournament. According to the BPI we will go 2-4 and that probably won't get us in the tournament unless we have a good showing in the SEC tournament.  I think this team has the talent to win every game left on the schedule, but they have to stop having these 5-8 minute meltdowns in games.  Doing that against any of the remaining teams on our schedule will result in a loss. 
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2018, 07:52:41 am »

Good start to the week with TCU losing @ WV (won't hurt them too much) and Texas losing at home to becoming-more-bubblicious Baylor. If we beat Ole Miss tonight Texas won't be ahead of us on any bracket, whereas right now we are placed a seed lower than them on around a one-third of the brackets.
Logged

ShadowHawg

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 19
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,623
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2018, 10:24:46 am »

Good start to the week with TCU losing @ WV (won't hurt them too much) and Texas losing at home to becoming-more-bubblicious Baylor. If we beat Ole Miss tonight Texas won't be ahead of us on any bracket, whereas right now we are placed a seed lower than them on around a one-third of the brackets.

What is the deal with TCU? Since noncon they just lose and lose. They are 5-8 in conference after going undefeated against a mild noncon Schedule. WTH
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2018, 10:57:52 am »

What is the deal with TCU? Since noncon they just lose and lose. They are 5-8 in conference after going undefeated against a mild noncon Schedule. WTH

They did really well with their non-con scheduling, scheduled some mid-major all-stars and beat all of them. Non-con RPI is 7 and non-con SOS is around 50, so both better than us. Of course the one P5 team they play is Vanderbilt and lose it. If we finish 9-9 I honestly think our resume will look better than theirs, and they are favored in 4 of their next 5 to close out the season.
Logged

Polecat

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2018, 11:09:44 am »

Adam, what would it take to move up to a 7 or even 6 seed? Would like to avoid the potential of a matchup with a #1 in NCAAA second round
Logged

Atlhogfan1

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18,980
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2018, 11:18:11 am »

With TCU, the committee has to consider what they are without Fisher which should lower their seeding. 
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2018, 12:50:16 pm »

Adam, what would it take to move up to a 7 or even 6 seed? Would like to avoid the potential of a matchup with a #1 in NCAAA second round

Probably around 23 wins, or six more, between the regular season and the SEC tournament. Maybe 22, but still leaning more towards 23.

We have loads of opportunity to improve our stock if we want to. Of our last 6 games, 5 are against Top 50 competition. If I were to just spitball on seed based on how we finish conference play (not factoring in SECT), I'd say:

6-0 - 4 Seed
5-1 - 6 Seed
4-2 - 8 Seed
3-3 - 10 seed
2-4 - Bubblicioius
1-5 - Out
0-6 - Out

The fact that it is so lock stepped with even seeds makes me feel it isn't very legit, but it works. I mainly just looked at what our potential Top 50 record would be compared to other teams to quickly guesstimate that. Only 6 teams would have more projected top 50 wins if we won out the reg season, but those teams at the top also don't really have any of the RPI 51-100 losses that we do. We also won't likely have any/many Top 15 wins if we win out, (Auburn, A&M, and Tennessee are all hovering around there,) which is something other top tier teams have.

21 wins, or 4 more, between the regular season and SECT should put us in. FWIW, we are projected to go 3.1-2.9 in our final 6 according to Sagarin.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 01:07:57 pm by Adam Stokes »
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2018, 01:29:04 pm »

Had around 30 brackets come out this morning, so teams got shuffled a bit.

Bracket alignment before Tuesday's games and schedule through Thursday:

---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 W Alabama vs LSU
+17 W Missouri vs #21 Texas A&M
+16 Nevada @ Boise State (Wednesday)
+15 L Butler vs Georgetown - Butler had no excuse to lose at home to a GU team with a sub-120 RPI, we'll be jumping these guys
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 Florida State vs #11 Clemson (Wednesday)
+13 L TCU @ #20 West Virginia (Monday) - Their loss dropped them 5 spots, still not sure we would pass them with an Ole Miss win.
+12 Michigan vs Iowa (Wednesday)
+11 W Arkansas @ Ole Miss
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Virginia Tech @ #12 Duke (Wednesday)
+9 Houston vs #5 Cincinnati (Thursday)
+8 Louisville
+7 Providence vs #1 Villanova (Wednesday)
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 L Texas vs Baylor (Monday) - While they technically only dropped them 2 spots here, looking around it seems they are essentially interchangeable on brackets +6 and +3. Their next loss could knock them out.
+5 UCLA vs Oregon State (Thursday)
+4 Washington vs Utah (Thursday)
+3 Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (Wednesday)
+2 NC State @ Syracuse (Wednesday)
+1 Syracuse vs NC State (Wednesday)
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State @ South Miss (Thursday)
-1 USC vs Oregon (Thursday)
-2 W Baylor @ Texas (Monday) - Bumped up Baylor from -9 to -2.
-3 Boise State vs #24 Nevada (Wednesday)
-4 Temple @ #19 Wichita St (Thursday)
-5 W St Bonaventure @ La Salle
-6 L LSU @ Alabama
-7 Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt (Wednesday)

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 09:57:32 pm by Adam Stokes »
Logged

ListenHereMister

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2018, 02:08:44 pm »

Is LSU on the bubble strictly for their 3 wins against us and A and M?
Logged

hogsanity

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 37
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 47,225
  • You like my stripes, I know you do.
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2018, 02:10:16 pm »

Is LSU on the bubble strictly for their 3 wins against us and A and M?

I'd think it is because with their remaining schedule, f they ran the table or maybe only had 1 loss they could play their way in. Especially if several in front of them falter.
Logged

jst01

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2018, 02:28:47 pm »

I'd think it is because with their remaining schedule, f they ran the table or maybe only had 1 loss they could play their way in. Especially if several in front of them falter.

This would be classic material for many on HV... "see, we lost to LSU twice but they are a tourney team so not bad losses"
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #26 on: February 15, 2018, 04:24:39 pm »

Thoughts:

- Not really a good night for us. Most all the teams around us won on Wednesday, but we continue to distance ourselves from the bubble line so long as the teams near the bottom don't play their way in, which has been the case lately.

- Still sticking to us needing 21 wins to be a lock, or 3 more between the regular season and the SECT. Could very well still get in with 20 if the bubble teams keep struggling and/or our non-con turns it around.

- Not sure how Lunardi moved us down from a 10 to 11 seed in todays Bracketology while moving us up on the s-curve (we had been in the next four in at #8.) Maybe we'd be fine stepping down a seed if we got to play in Dallas?

- MSU is essentially out unless they win out after their 1 point loss @ Vandy. SEC looking more and more solid at 8 teams. You always want the good teams to play good and the sucky teams to suck in the SEC. This past week the Top 8 have gone 8-1 vs the bottom 6, with UGA's OT win last night against Florida the sole outlier. Very nice.

- Butler moved down after their bad loss to Georgetown, bumping us up to +12

Bracket alignment before Wednesday's games and schedule through Thursday:

---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 W Nevada @ Boise State
+17 Florida State
+16 Seton Hall
+15 Miami
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 TCU
+13 Michigan
+12 Arkansas
+11 W Houston vs #5 Cincinnati
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Providence
+9 Butler
+8 Virginia Tech
+7 Louisville
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 Kansas State
+5 L Washington vs Utah
+4 NC State
+3 Texas
+2 W UCLA vs Oregon State
+1 Baylor
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* W Middle Tennessee State @ South Miss
-1 Syracuse
-2 W USC vs Oregon
-3 St Bonaventure vs #16 Rhode Island (Friday)
-4 Nebraska
-5 Boise State
-6 L Temple @ #19 Wichita St

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

Should be an update coming in the next couple of hours factoring in Wednesday's games.

http://bracketmatrix.com/
« Last Edit: February 16, 2018, 01:31:48 pm by Adam Stokes »
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #27 on: February 16, 2018, 10:20:47 pm »

Bracket alignment before Fridays games and schedule through the weekend:

---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Florida State vs Pitt (Sunday)
+17 L Miami vs Syracuse
+16 Seton Hall vs DePaul (Sunday)
+15 Michigan vs #8 Ohio State (Sunday)
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 W TCU vs Oklahoma St
+13 Houston @ Temple (Sunday)
+12 W St Mary's @ Portland
+11 W Arkansas vs #21 Texas A&M
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 L Providence @ Butler
+9 W Butler vs Providence
+8 W Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech
+7 L Louisville vs #14 UNC
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 W Kansas State vs Iowa State
+5 W NC State @ Wake Forest
+4 W Texas @ #23 Oklahoma
+3 W UCLA vs Oregon
+2 W Baylor vs #7 Texas Tech
+1 W USC vs Oregon State
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* W Middle Tennessee State @ LA Tech
-1 W Washington vs Colorado
-2 W St Bonaventure vs #16 Rhode Island (Friday) - A loss here might've kept them out. Now they should be back on the right side of the bubble for the next little bit.
-3 W Syracuse @ Miami
-4 Nebraska @ Illinois (Sunday)
-5 Temple vs Houston (Sunday)
-6 Penn St @ #6 Purdue (Sunday)
-7 W Utah @ Washington State
-8 W Boise State vs Air Force

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 06:39:34 am by Adam Stokes »
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #28 on: February 17, 2018, 01:33:10 pm »

While the day is still young, all the teams under us are winning and the teams above us losing (Providence is seeded higher than us on a third of the brackets.) Today is a day where we can jump more than expected by beating A&M or slide more than expected with a loss. As the resumes converge we could jump up to an 8 or slide to an 11.

Also, check how close the middle of the SEC is seeding wise. If we beat A&M it gets even more jumbled.
Logged

Atlhogfan1

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18,980
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #29 on: February 17, 2018, 05:22:53 pm »

A&M has more losses coming.   They’ll be an 8-10 seed.
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #30 on: February 17, 2018, 09:34:05 pm »

Wow, lots of green W's today. Good thing we won, as many of the losses came at the expense of teams in the 4-7 seeds, especially in the SEC.
Logged

Knot2brite

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2018, 09:43:24 pm »

I seriously don’t think we are on the bubble anymore. In fact, with a couple more wins I could see us as a 6/7 seed
Logged

hogmolar

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Total likes: 1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 696
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #32 on: February 17, 2018, 10:21:18 pm »

How is Kentucky seeded higher than us?
Logged

TexHog188

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 4
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 4,538
  • Touchdown Arkansas!
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2018, 10:42:35 pm »

How is Kentucky seeded higher than us?

Just a guess, but maybe a better RPI.
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #34 on: February 18, 2018, 06:34:30 am »

How is Kentucky seeded higher than us?

#3 non-con RPI, # 4 non-con SOS, #4 overall SOS; while ours is 22,85,45, respectively. They are 3-2 vs Top 50 (5-2 vs Top 60) in their non-conference, while we are just 1-2.
Logged

Polecat

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #35 on: February 18, 2018, 11:15:20 am »

Adam you have an update? Thanks man
Logged

ASUHog

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #36 on: February 18, 2018, 11:59:37 am »

Kentucky is 1-6 vs top 25 in rpi. We are 3-4. Seems you need to beat a few of those top teams to get that seeding.
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #37 on: February 18, 2018, 12:47:12 pm »

Adam you have an update? Thanks man

Hasn't been updated since Friday. Should be something later.
Logged

Atlhogfan1

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18,980
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #38 on: February 18, 2018, 12:48:14 pm »

Kentucky is 1-6 vs top 25 in rpi. We are 3-4. Seems you need to beat a few of those top teams to get that seeding.

We've lost a top 25 win for now as OU has fallen out of the RPI top 25.  Our 2 road wins tied for lowest among the RPI top 50+.  But UK only has 3 road wins.  Part of this is also human input.  Yesterday was our first win over an NCAAT team since beating Mizzou on Jan 13th.  We should be heading to at least a 6 seed after we beat UK and AU and win 1 or 2 in the SECT.
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #39 on: February 18, 2018, 04:51:10 pm »

Alright, now that we are up to a consensus 8 seed, thought I'd stretch the seedings on here a little higher. I'll put the teams on up the a 5 seed and work from there.

We aren't "in" yet. I still think we need to win two more games in our next five to be "in." Winning 1 of 4 and an opening round SECT game does however seem very likely at this point. Beat Kentucky in our next game and we can essentially bust out the post-season champagne bottles (only for our upper-classman of course.)

Bracket alignment before Sunday's games and Sunday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 W #19 Wichita State @ #5 Cincinnati
+29 Gonzaga
+28 Kentucky
+27 Rhode Island
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Texas A&M - Because so many teams in the 5-9 seeds lost, A&M only dropped one spot due to losing to us.
+25 Oklahoma
+24 Arizona State
+23 Nevada
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 W Florida State vs Pitt
+21 Creighton
+20 Alabama
+19 Missouri
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 W Houston @ Temple
+17 TCU
+16 Arkansas
+15 Florida
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 W Seton Hall vs DePaul
+13 St Mary's
+12 W Michigan vs #8 Ohio State - They will likely jump us with this win.
+11 Butler
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 Miami FL
+9 Virginia Tech
+8 Kansas State
+7 NC State
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 Providence
+5 St Bonaventure
+4 Baylor
+3 UCLA
+2 Texas
+1 Syracuse
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State
-1 Louisville - This one was hard to place, because they were only on 16 of 30 brackets, which would be the -1 spot, but their average seeding placed them at +5, so you either love their resume or don't think much of it.
-2 USC
-3 Washington
-4 L Nebraska @ Illinois (Sunday)
-5 L Penn St @ #6 Purdue (Sunday)
-6 LSU
-7 Marquette
-8 L Temple vs Houston - May be out now, needed this to push them back in.
-9 Boise State

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/

« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 09:40:03 pm by Adam Stokes »
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #40 on: February 18, 2018, 05:02:02 pm »

Of the 30 brackets that came out before Sundays games, this was our seeding spread, averaging 7.8 .

9 6-seed
4 7-seed
8 8-seed
4 9-seed
3 10-seed
2 11-seed
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2018, 07:52:17 pm »

Bracket alignment after Sunday's games and Monday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 West Virginia
+29 Gonzaga
+28 Rhode Island
+27 Kentucky
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Texas A&M
+25 Oklahoma @ #8 Kansas
+24 Arizona State
+23 Nevada
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Michigan
+21 Missouri
+20 Houston
+19 Alabama
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Creighton
+17 Arkansas
+16 Florida State
+15 Florida
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 TCU
+13 Seton Hall
+12 St Mary's
+11 Butler
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 W Miami FL vs Notre Dame
+9 Virginia Tech
+8 Providence
+7 Kansas State
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 Texas
+5 NC State
+4 UCLA
+3 Baylor
+2 St Bonaventure
+1 Syracuse
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State
-1 Louisville - 28 of 60 brackets
-2 USC - 23 of 60 brackets
-3 Washington - 22 of 60 brackets
----Huge Gap Here----
-4 LSU - 8 of 60 brackets
<-5 - four brackets or less

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/
Logged

ListenHereMister

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #42 on: February 19, 2018, 08:34:05 pm »

Is Miss St out of it baring a 4-0 run and damage in the sec tourney?
Logged

247Hog

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Total likes: 1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 915
  • Regular Sized Rudy Calling the Hogs
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #43 on: February 19, 2018, 08:41:48 pm »

Bracket alignment after Sunday's games and Monday schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 West Virginia
+29 Gonzaga
+28 Rhode Island
+27 Kentucky
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 Texas A&M
+25 Oklahoma @ #8 Kansas
+24 Arizona State
+23 Nevada
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 Michigan
+21 Missouri
+20 Houston
+19 Alabama
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 Creighton
+17 Arkansas
+16 Florida State
+15 Florida
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 TCU
+13 Seton Hall
+12 St Mary's
+11 Butler
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 W Miami FL vs Notre Dame
+9 Virginia Tech
+8 Providence
+7 Kansas State
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 Texas
+5 NC State
+4 UCLA
+3 Baylor
+2 St Bonaventure
+1 Syracuse
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* Middle Tennessee State
-1 Louisville - 28 of 60 brackets
-2 USC - 23 of 60 brackets
-3 Washington - 22 of 60 brackets
----Huge Gap Here----
-4 LSU - 8 of 60 brackets
<-5 - four brackets or less

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/

SMH  ???
Logged

alohawg

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #44 on: February 19, 2018, 09:03:43 pm »

Those seeds make no sense.
Logged

popcornhog

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #45 on: February 19, 2018, 11:34:44 pm »

Those seeds make no sense.

Non conference SOS has a lot to do with it.

Unfortunately the teams that looked good early in the season who we beat have struggled of late: OU and Minnesota being the two that could’ve really given us a boost.

That said, if we at least go 2-2 down the stretch we’ll be a 7/8/9/10 seed, depending how other teams finish. If we could go 3-1, I think we’d secure a 7 seed most likely.

If we were to run the table (4-0 and win SECT), we’d likely be a 6 seed or better.
Logged

alohawg

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #46 on: February 20, 2018, 01:12:02 am »

Non conference SOS has a lot to do with it.

Unfortunately the teams that looked good early in the season who we beat have struggled of late: OU and Minnesota being the two that could’ve really given us a boost.

That said, if we at least go 2-2 down the stretch we’ll be a 7/8/9/10 seed, depending how other teams finish. If we could go 3-1, I think we’d secure a 7 seed most likely.

If we were to run the table (4-0 and win SECT), we’d likely be a 6 seed or better.

I'll take the last if, thanks.  :)
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #47 on: February 20, 2018, 06:31:56 am »

Non conference SOS has a lot to do with it.

Unfortunately the teams that looked good early in the season who we beat have struggled of late: OU and Minnesota being the two that could’ve really given us a boost.

Yep. Our best non-con RPI is Oklahoma who is now at #35. After that, you have to go all the way to Bucknell at 86.

A&M had four wins better than Bucknell in their non-con, three in the top 50. Kentucky has 4 Top 60 wins in non-con. That essentially gives them a 2 game edge on us in the SEC standings vs seeding.
Logged

lynbug

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Total likes: 0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 796
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #48 on: February 20, 2018, 08:52:45 am »

Nine teams separated by 2 games with 4 games  left.  Fairly self explanatory.  Each game is crucial.
Logged

Adam Stokes

Re: Bubble Time
« Reply #49 on: February 24, 2018, 08:57:32 pm »

Notes:

- We are in. I wasn't sure going into today if a win would clinch it. Losing our last two would've placed us against the SEC's worst in the 2nd rd. I was thinking that a loss in the SECT to an Ole Miss and finishing 0-3 might've kept us out with an RPI in the low 40's. Look at the bubble line teams today. Yeah, we're in.

- This win puts us right on the 7/8 seed line. Splitting the last two will probably put us as an 8. Don't think we can play our way out of a 10 or worse unless we lose out including the SECT. We need to either go 2-0 to finish the season or go 1-1 and 2-1 in the SECT to stay off the dreaded 8/9 line.

- Since we are in, we should just root against the teams close to us. Kentucky vs Mizzou? Yes we hate Kentucky, yes Mizzou helps our RPI more and we played them twice, but now we just want to be seeded higher. Go Big Blue.

- LSU always seems to keep themselves in contention and then can never get over the hump, losing at Georgia today. While Georgia was on zero brackets, they were -8 on Joe Lunardi's S-curve coming into today. MSU, LSU, and UGa seem like crabs in a barrel, they are all keeping one another from climbing out.

Bracket alignment before Saturday's games and weekend schedule:

---- 5 Seeds ----
+30 Ohio State
+29 W #6 Gonzaga @ BYU
+28 W Kentucky vs Missouri
+27 Rhode Island
---- 6 Seeds ----
+26 W Michigan vs Maryland
+25 Nevada vs Colorado State (Sunday)
+24 W TCU vs Baylor
+23 Houston vs East Carolina (Sunday)
---- 7 Seeds ----
+22 L Arizona State @ Oregon State
+21 L Alabama vs Arkansas
+20 Florida State @ NC State (Sunday)
+19 W Seton Hall @ St Johns
---- 8 Seeds ----
+18 W Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt
+17 Butler
+16 L Missouri @ Kentucky
+15 W Arkansas @ Alabama
---- 9 Seeds ----
+14 L Virginia Tech vs Louisville
+13 W Oklahoma vs Kansas State
+12 W Florida vs #12 Auburn
+11 W Creighton vs #3 Villanova
--- 10 Seeds ----
+10 W St Mary's vs Santa Clara
+9 W Miami FL
+8 L Kansas State @ Oklahoma
+7 NC State vs Florida State (Sunday)
--- 11 Seeds ----
+6 W Providence @ Goergetown
+5 W St Bonaventure @ VCU
+4 W Texas vs Oklahoma State
+3 W USC @ Utah
+2 L Baylor @ TCU
+1 UCLA @ Colorado (Sunday)
---- Bubble Line ----
-0* W Middle Tennessee State vs UAB
-1 L 10/25 Brackets Syracuse @ Duke
-2 L 8/25 Marquette @ Depaul
-3 L 6/25 LSU @ Georgia
-4 W Louisville 5/25 - @ Virginia Tech
-5 L Utah 5/25
-6 Boise State 5/25
-7 W Mississippi State 3/25
-8 W Washington 3/25

* - Projected auto-bid but could sneak into an at-large

http://bracketmatrix.com/
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 03:55:42 am by Adam Stokes »
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas