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Author Topic: This should be the low for the rest of the year.  (Read 1269 times)

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Adam Stokes

This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« on: February 04, 2018, 08:57:01 am »

"Should" would be in italics. And if it's not, Mike won't be here much longer.

A month ago I would've said that 9-9 would make us a lock for the tournament, and 8-10 would be bubble. Unfortunately our non-con SOS has slipped from around 30 to 80 as all of opponents have been sucking it hardcore as of late. Now 9-9 puts us on the right side of the bubble, and 8-10 likely keeps us out.

We're at 4-6, but 4 of our next 5 games are at home. And the road team we play is Ole Miss, technically a worse team than Georgia, (though yes, we just lost to LSU.) We are technically favored in our next 5 games, though our expected wins are just 3.2 out of the 5 as the chances of winning fall anywhere between 51% and 76%. (Because the question always seems to come up, 3.2 means 3 is the most likely, but 4 is more likely than 2.) Optimism should turn around pretty quick if we do win 4 of 5, as the effect of every game on Hogville.

Following the 4 of 5 home games we finish with 2 of 3 on the road with the home game being Auburn. So essentially if we don't go 4-1 in our next five we won't be making the tournament save an SECT miracle. I'm on board with firing Mike if we don't make the tournament. Feelings on Mike aside, I still feel more optimistic of our shot at making the tournament than most on here.

While I would much rather be worrying about what seed we'll be versus whether we're on the right side of the bubble, I'll be keeping us up to date over the next month of which teams are around us on the bubble and who we'll need to root for and against. Really anything to deflect from how we're playing while also shining a light on chances to make the NCAAT. Will also give me something to do to divert any negative energy from how we're playing.

Here's to an entertaining February!
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2018, 09:04:01 am »

Iíve yet to lean we will miss the tournament.   The collapse still has to be so great. 
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Letsroll1200

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2018, 09:11:50 am »

9-9 will get us in. You're talking about the possibility beating Kentucky, Auburn and A&M. That's going to put the Hogs in the top 25 RPI if they can pull it off.
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hamARchy in the USA

Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2018, 09:13:09 am »

Iíve yet to lean we will miss the tournament.   The collapse still has to be so great. 

It's doable.   The bounce at the end of last year which carried into early this year had the look from the start as a bear market bounce.  MA's program was hitting a new low before the sudden turnaround that drew back in all the suckers.  Now the bear market is resuming.
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Mr. Porkleone

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2018, 09:24:32 am »

Lol
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Kevin

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2018, 09:28:29 am »

This weeks opponents are tailored made for the hogs. No real good point guard on either team and at home.

After that, the going will get tough.

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Breems

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2018, 09:35:10 am »

This weeks opponents are tailored made for the hogs. No real good point guard on either team and at home.

After that, the going will get tough.



USCe shoots so poorly I'm tempted to call them a win at home. They're the best offensive rebounding team in the SEC (all the misses help inflate that) and won @FL, so who knows.

There aren't any road wins left. All of them shoot the 3 just well enough or just often enough to blow us out.
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lynbug

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2018, 09:49:31 am »

Sorry.  Not looking for a "bounce back" this year.  We'll be lucky to make the NIT.  Hey....it's still post-season basketball. 
« Last Edit: February 04, 2018, 10:12:42 am by lynbug »
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netteltonhog

Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2018, 10:54:51 am »

Iím starting to hope we lose enough to get rid of Mike. I canít see it getting any better with him in charge. 
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rude1

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2018, 11:01:02 am »

Shouldn't even be having to have this discussion with a coach in year 7 of the program. Win all home games and they probably squeak in, as I don't see another road win on the horizon. Unfortunately I don't think they will win all their home games either.
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cardsNhogs

Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2018, 11:33:07 am »

NCAA second round last year. Macon and Barford come back. We lose Kingsley and Hannahs but add Gafford and Hall. This year was supposed to be about how deep we would go not whether or not we get in. MA has done a very poor job!
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rude1

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2018, 11:47:15 am »

NCAA second round last year. Macon and Barford come back. We lose Kingsley and Hannahs but add Gafford and Hall. This year was supposed to be about how deep we would go not whether or not we get in. MA has done a very poor job!
Agreed. What is even more telling is that Mike has refused to try anything different, I mean you would like to see a coach with some urgency, trying new defenses, changing things up trying to find something that works defensively. Instead what we have seen is him running the same defense over and over as teams attack it for layups and wide open shots, and he seems blind to the fact it isn't working, seems to believe they just need to try harder.
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Cracker Jack

Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2018, 02:25:51 pm »

Agreed. What is even more telling is that Mike has refused to try anything different, I mean you would like to see a coach with some urgency, trying new defenses, changing things up trying to find something that works defensively. Instead what we have seen is him running the same defense over and over as teams attack it for layups and wide open shots, and he seems blind to the fact it isn't working, seems to believe they just need to try harder.
  ^^ THIS^^.  What he does is all he knows.  In his mind, we just need to try harder and do better.  It ain't working, folks.  "What we do" will never work against a disciplined team with a coach who has a game plan to attack our team's weaknesses.  If we cannot "out-athlete" a team, we will not win.  Technique, strategy, a half-court offense and defense, and adjustments are not options for Hog basketball.  We do what we do....
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HogCzar1

Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2018, 02:40:19 pm »

If we make the Tournament and win a game, then any noise around the program will be quieted down. Even if we don’t, there will be no coaching change. If that was any sort of a possibility, the contract extension would not have been announced two games ago.


I'm not so sure about that. First, the contract extension was essentially completed back in November before the season started. The BOT approved it at the last meeting, so the timing wasn't performance based relating to this season. And, our new AD was not involved in it.

We obviously need to let this season play out. But, failure to make the NCAA's this year with the start we had, along with a Senior team can not be taken lightly. In addition, next year's youth will make next year an uphill battle.

The concern will be an overall view of the program. Are we progressing or regressing? Regardless of who the coach is, our fan support and history require us to field a nationally competitive program. At some point the bottom line will require an honest examination without excuses or hopes for the future.

Our coach earns a salary among the top 20 coaches in America. Are we at that same level of performance on the court?
Our attendance ranks among the top 20 in the country. Are we at that same level on the court?


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3of5-2

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2018, 02:41:51 pm »

Shouldn't even be having to have this discussion with a coach in year 7 of the program. Win all home games and they probably squeak in, as I don't see another road win on the horizon. Unfortunately I don't think they will win all their home games either.
^^^THIS^^^ The fact that we have such a piss poor conference record at this point in the season, and at this point in a coach's tenure, should be enough to make a change.
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hogsanity

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2018, 02:44:36 pm »

^^^THIS^^^ The fact that we have such a piss poor conference record at this point in the season, and at this point in a coach's tenure, should be enough to make a change.

Hogs are literally 3 shots from being 1-9 in sec play.
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Breems

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2018, 02:47:53 pm »

Agreed. What is even more telling is that Mike has refused to try anything different, I mean you would like to see a coach with some urgency, trying new defenses, changing things up trying to find something that works defensively. Instead what we have seen is him running the same defense over and over as teams attack it for layups and wide open shots, and he seems blind to the fact it isn't working, seems to believe they just need to try harder.

We don't have a great (or even good) on-ball defender, and NONE of our guards or wings can keep guards out of the lane. The impact of the latter cannot be overstated. It's instant, easy offense for the other team. They either get a foul from our guards trying to catch up from behind, kick it out for an open 3, or get a layup.
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hogsanity

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2018, 02:51:08 pm »

We don't have a great (or even good) on-ball defender, and NONE of our guards or wings can keep guards out of the lane. The impact of the latter cannot be overstated. It's instant, easy offense for the other team. They either get a foul from our guards trying to catch up from behind, kick it out for an open 3, or get a layup.

then you'd think the coach would try some other things to at least TRY to cover for some of these shortcomings ( shortcomings he created in recruiting ). I used to ask if it was a case of Mike being unwilling or unable to try different things. I am now convinced he is incapable of actually teaching anything other than chase and grab basketball on defense, and his only offense seems to be peeweeish, just get the ball to his best two players and let them try to do it all.
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3of5-2

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2018, 02:51:52 pm »

Hogs are literally 3 shots from being 1-9 in sec play.
B-E-L-O-W  A-V-E-R-A-G-E
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rude1

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2018, 03:00:19 pm »

We don't have a great (or even good) on-ball defender, and NONE of our guards or wings can keep guards out of the lane. The impact of the latter cannot be overstated. It's instant, easy offense for the other team. They either get a foul from our guards trying to catch up from behind, kick it out for an open 3, or get a layup.
Agreed. And the defense by design helps it break itself by voluntarily switching on a simple ball screen. Don't have the match up you want offensively? Set a simple ball screen 30' from the basket and watch us instantly volunteer the mismatch by jumping out there to make that switch, leaving a forward or center on their ball handler as their big rolls to the basket with a small guard on him ready to either post up the mismatch or destroy him on the glass the moment the shot goes us.
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Breems

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #20 on: February 04, 2018, 03:08:20 pm »

then you'd think the coach would try some other things to at least TRY to cover for some of these shortcomings ( shortcomings he created in recruiting ). I used to ask if it was a case of Mike being unwilling or unable to try different things. I am now convinced he is incapable of actually teaching anything other than chase and grab basketball on defense, and his only offense seems to be peeweeish, just get the ball to his best two players and let them try to do it all.

I think the offense is fine. Looks like many other motion offenses, but there are no offensively skilled forwards to help facilitate the motion.

Not sure what's up with Mike on defense. Maybe he's not used to a team without perimeter defenders. He definitely acts like he doesn't know how to compensate.
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Sow Lancelot

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #21 on: February 04, 2018, 03:14:27 pm »

Agreed. What is even more telling is that Mike has refused to try anything different, I mean you would like to see a coach with some urgency, trying new defenses, changing things up trying to find something that works defensively. Instead what we have seen is him running the same defense over and over as teams attack it for layups and wide open shots, and he seems blind to the fact it isn't working, seems to believe they just need to try harder.
Sounds a lot like Bielema.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #22 on: February 04, 2018, 03:19:33 pm »

Shouldn't even be having to have this discussion with a coach in year 7
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razorpimp

Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2018, 03:39:07 pm »

Agreed. What is even more telling is that Mike has refused to try anything different, I mean you would like to see a coach with some urgency, trying new defenses, changing things up trying to find something that works defensively. Instead what we have seen is him running the same defense over and over as teams attack it for layups and wide open shots, and he seems blind to the fact it isn't working, seems to believe they just need to try harder.

It's amazing to watch CMA as compared to the opposing coach on the sidelines.  The other coach is almost always pointing, stomping, screaming, coaching at players....all mediocre man does is yell out a few things, keep his arms crossed, and scowl....
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hogsanity

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #24 on: February 04, 2018, 04:27:39 pm »

I think the offense is fine. Looks like many other motion offenses, but there are no offensively skilled forwards to help facilitate the motion.

Not sure what's up with Mike on defense. Maybe he's not used to a team without perimeter defenders. He definitely acts like he doesn't know how to compensate.

Why wouldn't he be used to it, been that way for 6 1/2 seasons.
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Breems

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Re: This should be the low for the rest of the year.
« Reply #25 on: February 04, 2018, 06:16:08 pm »

Why wouldn't he be used to it, been that way for 6 1/2 seasons.

Not really. Guys like Wade, Gulley, and Watkins were very good on-ball defenders that could slow down/disrupt ball handlers and guard the perimeter in general. That put much less pressure on the bigs and forwards to help stop penetration or recover to the wing on kick-outs. We're missing that key piece this year (or they're too fatigued), so Mike's defensive system is a complete failure without a first line of defense.

I've been thinking this year that I want Hannahs or Kingsley back, but it might just be Manny we miss most.
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